Spring 2012, Outlooks and Forecasts Options

[stuffradio]

The 8-14 day CPC outlook gives the west and I all the warmth, and the east 33% to 50% below normal temps.

[an uncanny otter]

Despite some cool spells, April will still go down as being above-average in temperatures for Windsor. This will make April 2012 the 13th consecutive month in a row with above-average temperatures. The last time we had a month that was actually cooler than normal was in March 2011. How long will the streak continue? It will be interesting to see if May will end up above-average with below-normal temperatures being forecast for the middle of the month.

This post has been edited by an uncanny otter: Apr 28 2012, 09:33 PM

[bigmt]

Looking at 2m temp departures from the 12z GFS, the cold air in the east will get the boot through the course of this week but may not be able to muster significant staying power farther out (although it isn't likely to be nearly as unpleasant in the medium range as it's been recently). The west will chill a bit in the near-term but should stage a recovery in temps thereafter.

Day 1 ensemble mean:

 D1.png ( 40.32K ) Number of downloads: 0


Day 4, warmth building in the east and cooling down through the Prairies:

 D4.png ( 39.32K ) Number of downloads: 0


Day 12, confidence level diminished somewhat at this range:

 D12.png ( 37.97K ) Number of downloads: 0

[bigmt]

A new month means shiny new outlooks from EC and the CPC.

Climate Prediction Center May 2012 temp probabilities:

 off_temp_small.gif ( 48.79K ) Number of downloads: 1


May 2012 precip probabilities:

 off_prcp_small.gif ( 40.46K ) Number of downloads: 1


Environment Canada May-Jun-Jul temps, above-normal basically across the board:

 sfe1t_s.gif ( 93.27K ) Number of downloads: 3


May-Jun-Jul precip:

 sfe1p_s.gif ( 86.56K ) Number of downloads: 3


For good measure, the latest from the CFSv2 model which looks like it was a factor in the CPC's maps.

CFSv2 May temps:

 usT2mMonInd1.gif ( 29.29K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip:

 usPrecMonInd1.gif ( 34.93K ) Number of downloads: 0

[JJ Snowlover]

A new month means shiny new outlooks from EC and the CPC.

Climate Prediction Center May 2012 temp probabilities:

 off_temp_small.gif ( 48.79K ) Number of downloads: 1


May 2012 precip probabilities:

 off_prcp_small.gif ( 40.46K ) Number of downloads: 1


Environment Canada May-Jun-Jul temps, above-normal basically across the board:

 sfe1t_s.gif ( 93.27K ) Number of downloads: 3


May-Jun-Jul precip:

 sfe1p_s.gif ( 86.56K ) Number of downloads: 3


For good measure, the latest from the CFSv2 model which looks like it was a factor in the CPC's maps.

CFSv2 May temps:

 usT2mMonInd1.gif ( 29.29K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip:

 usPrecMonInd1.gif ( 34.93K ) Number of downloads: 0

hmmm hot dry summer according to EC, OK, will see what happens

[ottawasnowstorm]

What's interesting is that EC is saying that summer in Ottawa (at least until the end of july) is going to be hot while accuweather just released their summer forecast and they are saying that summer would not be hot but rather average (this is my interpretation from their US forecast but we seem to be in the zone of normal temperatures but with many storms).

I will take EC since they have been better with longer range "seasonal" forecasts for Ottawa over the las couple of years. The last two summers, for example, EC called for a hot summer and mother nature delivered.

What would be especially nice (and especially after this dreadful winter) is if EC is correct on the hot summer and accuweather is correct on the active storm (thunderstorm) weather for the summer.

[stuffradio]

What's interesting is that EC is saying that summer in Ottawa (at least until the end of july) is going to be hot while accuweather just released their summer forecast and they are saying that summer would not be hot but rather average (this is my interpretation from their US forecast but we seem to be in the zone of normal temperatures but with many storms).

I will take EC since they have been better with longer range "seasonal" forecasts for Ottawa over the las couple of years. The last two summers, for example, EC called for a hot summer and mother nature delivered.

What would be especially nice (and especially after this dreadful winter) is if EC is correct on the hot summer and accuweather is correct on the active storm (thunderstorm) weather for the summer.

Accuweather has me having a cool Summer... I just had a cool Summer last year.

[bigmt]

Models still have a cool look for the east in the medium range so the sultry conditions now being experienced in SW ON may not be sticking around for a prolonged period.

500mb pattern for days 8-10 from the 12z Euro and GFS:

 test8.gif ( 86.44K ) Number of downloads: 1


12z GFS ensemble mean 2m temp anomalies for day 8:

 D8.gif ( 35.92K ) Number of downloads: 0

[TheFrenchman]

Blocking pattern this summer..... what a great news.... This is what we want in winter, not in the summer!!!!


Cool looks for the east again! I knew we would pay for this inbelievable too early hot weather...!

[bigmt]

Blocking pattern this summer..... what a great news.... This is what we want in winter, not in the summer!!!!

Summer notwithstanding, blocking looks as if it could be fairly persistent for a good chunk of May according to the GFS.

 nao.sprd2.gif ( 6.44K ) Number of downloads: 0


 12zGFS6_10day500mbHeightAnomalyNA.gif ( 32.71K ) Number of downloads: 0

Accuweather has me having a cool Summer... I just had a cool Summer last year.

If it's any consolation, the CFS seasonal forecast continues to insist that SW BC is going to experience a dry pattern for the summer months. In fact the drier-than-normal conditions never fully let up through the fall and early winter months if the model is to be believed.

This post has been edited by bigmt: May 4 2012, 01:12 PM

[an uncanny otter]

Windsor managed to hit 31.4°C yesterday afternoon. The temperature of 28.6°C on May 2 was just barely warmer than the 28.4°C we hit on March 22nd.

It's hard to keep track of all the heat records we've been breaking in recent years. Warmest month ever (July 2011), one of our warmest winters, warmest March and largest departure from normal, and those are just for 2011 and 2012 so far. On top of the precipitation and snowfall records that have been falling in the past decade.

This post has been edited by an uncanny otter: May 4 2012, 08:04 PM

[an uncanny otter]

There is a small part of southwestern Ontario in the SPC's slight risk for tomorrow. Whether we will still be in that risk by tomorrow has yet to be seen... I doubt that it's worth making a whole new thread for. It will still be interesting to see what turns out.

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This post has been edited by an uncanny otter: May 6 2012, 09:48 PM

Attached File(s)

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[EOsnowmom]

Anyone else getting bored with absolutely gorgeous weather? LOL

[stuffradio]

Anyone else getting bored with absolutely gorgeous weather? LOL

No, it's just starting for me. Getting a bit more cloud with a chance of rain tomorrow, and a bit cooler on Wednesday/Thursday, but rebounding again on the weekend, and I could very well be below normal precip the rest of the month.

[bigmt]

Looks like a particularly nice Mother's Day weekend shaping up for the west. 2m temp anomalies from the GFS ensembles for Sunday:

 D2.gif ( 38.01K ) Number of downloads: 0


A week later the core of the heat shifts eastwards and the Prairies cool down:

 D9.gif ( 33.66K ) Number of downloads: 0

[bigmt]

The March heat came with a price which could be paid by consumers later in the year.

http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/new...imated-by-frost

Ontario fruit crops decimated by frost

Ontario’s fruit crops, especially apples and tender fruit like peaches and nectarines, have been hugely damaged by frost, and that could mean an increase in fruit prices come fall, growers say.

Warm weather in March caused trees to bloom early but that warmth was followed by sub-zero temperatures, which decimated crops in the province.

“It’s like no other season I’ve ever had. I’ve been apple farming for 52 years and we’ve never had a crop loss like this one,” Tom Chudleigh, owner of Chudleigh’s Apple Farm in Halton Hills, told CityNews.ca.

“We can’t tell what per cent of the crop is lost just yet, but the loss is somewhere between 60 and 80 per cent. We’ll know exactly by June 15, when the fruit has developed further.”

For consumers, that means an increase in prices is likely.

“There’s no government pricing for apples — it does move on market demand — so the price will definitely be higher,” Chudleigh said.

There will be fewer apples for sale and many will be sold for juice, Gilroy agreed.

“For farmers who do have apples, they won’t have the quantity to sell that they normally would so we’ll definitely see fewer Ontario apples in the stores this fall, and the apples that are left will show the effects of cold damage, ” Gilroy said.

Also an impressive snowfall in Labrador, beating their entire monthly average in two days.

http://t.co/lhHKKy6C

Snow ending in Labrador

Snowfall warnings for communities in western Labrador have ended, although they may still see trace amounts as Thursday night's snow continues into the weekend.

The area around Churchill Falls, Labrador City and Wabush had already seen around 18 cm by Friday afternoon.

Rob Davis, a meteorologist with The Weather Network, says Labrador saw a few trace amounts Friday evening, but the worst is over.

The highest snowfall recorded on a single day in May is 21 cm in Labrador City, but Davis says there's no guarantee this week's blast of snow will break that record.

Though heavy amounts fell throughout the province, Rob Davis, a meteorologist at The Weather Network says "we probably won't break that record."

Still, Davis says the snowfall has already exceeded the entire monthly average of 16.5 cm.

"This may not be the last for them, and they're quite used to that, I'm sure," he says.

[an uncanny otter]

There are Tornado Warnings lighting up in northern Ontario tonight.

Timmins - Cochrane - Iroquois Falls
6:35 PM EDT Tuesday 15 May 2012
Tornado warning for
Timmins - Cochrane - Iroquois Falls continued

At 6:20 PM EDT radar indicates a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado to the southeast of saganash lake. This thunderstorm is moving to the northeast at 40 km/h and is expected to cross highway 11 about 7:30 PM EDT, between Smooth Rock Falls and Cochrane. Hail near 2 cm in diameter and frequent lightning are also likely with this thunderstorm.

At 6 PM EDT radar indicates a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado to the south of Kapuskasing. This thunderstorm is moving to the northeast at 40 km/h and is expected to cross highway 11 about 6:30 PM EDT, between Kapuskasing and Smooth Rock Falls. Hail near 2 cm in diameter and frequent lightning are also likely with this thunderstorm.

Severe thunderstorms likely producing tornadoes are imminent or occurring in the area. Large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall may also accompany these storms.

Emergency management Ontario recommends taking cover immediately when threatening weather approaches.

[bigmt]

Quick recap of spring 2012.

March featured blockbuster warmth over the central and eastern part of the continent. An extended stretch of summerlike heat was awe-inspiring.

 march2012.png ( 13.8K ) Number of downloads: 0


April cooled off for the Great Lakes while the heat backed west.

 april2012.png ( 15.76K ) Number of downloads: 0


May was warm through S/E ON, S QUE and into the Maritimes.

 may2012.png ( 15.35K ) Number of downloads: 0


Spring as a whole was toasty through the midsection and into the Eastern half of Canada and chilly along the Western coastline.

 spring2012.png ( 14.81K ) Number of downloads: 0


Global temp anomalies dotmap from NOAA:

 globaldotmap.gif ( 79.36K ) Number of downloads: 0


Global precip anomalies dotmap:

 globaldotprecip.gif ( 63.13K ) Number of downloads: 0


Mar-Apr-May land and ocean temp graph:

 springgraph.gif ( 72.8K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/5

The March–May period ranked as the seventh warmest on record for the seasonally-averaged global land and ocean temperature. The Northern Hemisphere spring ranked as the fourth warmest such period on record, while the Southern Hemisphere autumn was 14th warmest since records began in 1880.

Globally, the average land temperature was the fourth warmest March–May on record, at 1.12°C (2.02°F) above average.

[travis3000]

March was awesome, April was close to a normal April but a tad cool. May was warmer than normal. Overall a very nice spring, can't complain at all!

[stuffradio]

March was wet, April was wet, May was a tad below normal but still wet and June has been wet almost every day of the Month.