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> Spring 2012, Outlooks and Forecasts
an uncanny otter
post Mar 1 2012, 12:49 PM
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Parts of southwestern ON are now in a slight risk (15% chance) for severe thunderstorms tomorrow. I'll make a thread forne possibility of some severe weather later today. It will be an active day in the US!

edit: whoops, didn't even see that we already had a thread going. never mind!

This post has been edited by an uncanny otter: Mar 1 2012, 12:51 PM
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Removed_Member_thehammer_*
post Mar 2 2012, 04:11 PM
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woke up this morning to sunshine and the sound of robins and other birds all chirping away wildly. Such a great sound!
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bigmt
post Mar 2 2012, 06:10 PM
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Looking about as toasty as it can get for a large portion of NA...

Attached File  610temp.new.small.gif ( 67.2K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  814temp.new.small.gif ( 67.01K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Mar 3 2012, 09:30 AM
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All signs are go for unseasonable warmth.

GFS ensembles 6-10 day 850 mb temp anomalies:

Attached File  00zENS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 32.99K ) Number of downloads: 3


11-15 day:

Attached File  00zENS11_15day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 31.62K ) Number of downloads: 1


CFS v2 Mar-Apr-May 2m temps:

Attached File  usT2mMon.gif ( 20.83K ) Number of downloads: 1


CFS v2 all three spring months together:

Attached File  usT2mSea.gif ( 7.88K ) Number of downloads: 1
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snowgeek93
post Mar 3 2012, 10:06 AM
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Good to hear, can't wait. I have always hated this time of year as it is too late in the season to get anything good from winter and it's too early to enjoy spring. We are stuck in this transition period between winter and spring and if you ask me, it is a pretty dull time.
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Removed_Member_thehammer_*
post Mar 4 2012, 02:41 PM
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that's the perfect spring scenario - much warmer than normal in March. Warmer than normal in April and average in May....beautiful!! Bring it on
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bigmt
post Mar 4 2012, 05:24 PM
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Today's 12z Euro certainly has a lot of mild weather at various points.

Hour 168:

Attached File  12zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif ( 57.33K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 192:

Attached File  12zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif ( 57.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 240:

Attached File  12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 59.86K ) Number of downloads: 1
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TriC
post Mar 4 2012, 06:16 PM
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Bring on Spring i'm ready!!! already buds on my Maple tree in the back yard..


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snowgeek93
post Mar 4 2012, 06:22 PM
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I have never wanted winter to end as much as I do right now. Should have appreciated 2010 more than I did as it was the best spring ever.

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Big Snowstorm 20...
post Mar 4 2012, 08:12 PM
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Is winter really done?? Is there no hope for anymore snowfall? Not that is is a bad thing..actually..now i am looking forward to a very warm spring!

Myforecast for Hamilton shows the temp trend rising significantly by the 20th of March..are the temps ever expected to drop in the negatives again? Or can we officially celebrate the arrival of spring?
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an uncanny otter
post Mar 4 2012, 08:33 PM
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Both EC and TWN have me hitting 13C on Wednesday. Can't wait! Should be the first real springlike day here.
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bigmt
post Mar 4 2012, 08:53 PM
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QUOTE(Big Snowstorm 2010 @ Mar 4 2012, 08:12 PM) *
Is winter really done?? Is there no hope for anymore snowfall? Not that is is a bad thing..actually..now i am looking forward to a very warm spring!

Myforecast for Hamilton shows the temp trend rising significantly by the 20th of March..are the temps ever expected to drop in the negatives again? Or can we officially celebrate the arrival of spring?


It's difficult to say with a great degree of certainty since the long-range is always murky but nearly every indication is for an early spring and anomalously warm temperatures for the foreseeable future. There can still be cold shots but they appear to be transient as they have been all winter long with heat ruling the pattern. Snow chances will have to be watched with individual systems coming through but they will only diminish from here on out. Since the winter has been so disappointing this could be looked at as a blessing of sorts, sealing the deal quickly and decisively. Enjoy it everyone since there are never guarantees with the weather.
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Ryan45
post Mar 4 2012, 08:52 PM
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Lol we got more snow in 2010


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yhm_hamilton
post Mar 4 2012, 09:42 PM
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I hope this latest cold shot today and tomorrow is the end of it, ou name a Perennial in my garden and its showing growth, and My tupips daffodils Hyacithns and Crocuses arepokingup through the ground.

Looking forward tuesday and onward.

Cant wait till this next next week when the sun will set after 7pm
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Removed_Member_thehammer_*
post Mar 4 2012, 09:56 PM
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QUOTE(an uncanny otter @ Mar 4 2012, 08:33 PM) *
Both EC and TWN have me hitting 13C on Wednesday. Can't wait! Should be the first real springlike day here.


I'll have to look this up, but I think we hit double digits at least once every month this winter...lol
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bigmt
post Mar 5 2012, 06:36 AM
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TWN has it's spring outlook available on it's website.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/

Attached File  SpringOutlookTemp2012_art_7_3460.jpg ( 119.4K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  SpringOutlookPrecip2012_art_7_3461.jpg ( 120.68K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
British Columbia
The northern parts of the province can expect below normal temperatures this spring, with near normal temperatures forecast elsewhere. Near normal precipitation is expected for the province.

Alberta and Saskatchewan
Temperatures in northern Alberta and northern Saskatchewan will also be below normal, with near normal temperatures elsewhere. Parts of southern Alberta, including the city of Calgary, can expect drier than normal conditions with near normal precipitation elsewhere. Saskatchewan can expect near normal precipitation as well.

Manitoba
While temperatures for Manitoba will be near normal, the far south of the province, covering most of its Grain Belt, will be warmer. Near normal precipitation amounts are expected.

Ontario
With normal spring temperatures expected for most of the province, above normal temperatures are forecast across the southern tier of the northwest. Wetter than normal conditions are likely for the southern half of northeastern Ontario through cottage country and across eastern Ontario. Wetter than normal conditions are expected for the Lower Ottawa Valley including the National Capital Region.

Québec
Temperatures are predicted to be near normal for the province. Wetter than normal conditions wil extend from the Ottawa Valley in Ontario into Québec's adjacent St.Lawrence Valleys, including Montreal. Near normal precipitation elsewhere.

Atlantic Canada
Near normal temperatures are in store for most of the region, except for Nova Scotia, Newfoundland's south shore and the Avalon Peninsula where we expect milder than normal temperatures. Precipitation amounts will be near normal for the entire region.

Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut
Below normal temperatures are forecast for the Yukon and the Northwest Territories, but Nunavut can expect near normal conditions. Near normal precipitation is likely everywhere.
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JJ Snowlover
post Mar 5 2012, 06:43 AM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Mar 3 2012, 10:06 AM) *
Good to hear, can't wait. I have always hated this time of year as it is too late in the season to get anything good from winter and it's too early to enjoy spring. We are stuck in this transition period between winter and spring and if you ask me, it is a pretty dull time.

I agree, early spring is my least favourite time of year, messy and muddy and melting snow looks pretty ugly. By mid April things start to get better...

But all signs do point that winter is over even for Ottawa. The long range looks pretty toasty. We still have lots of snow to get rid of before we see real signs of spring like flowers and budding trees. heck it -18c at my house this morning blink.gif
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Regg
post Mar 5 2012, 01:07 PM
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Very long range from the GFS is showing a constant rising temps situation - including no frost at night for several day - next week (talking about south western QC).

We're not out of possible snow until May(freak situation can happened). I've seen years with 30c days in April , just to get a trace of snow in May with early blooming flowers freezing on the ground. That is what spring (the usual one) can throw at us anytime.

Some will say we have a 10% chance of getting snow up until mid-may. 10% it's not much, but what if it does happened.. Well, that's what 10% is .. it might just be it as it might just not.

May 10th 1963 saw Montreal with 21cm of snow overnight yet it was a max of 22c the previous day. Like i said, it's only 10% (not much), but it's quite a downer when it hits you after a period of very warm spring days/period.

Added : Same situation for Toronto on may 7th 1976 with almost 3cm of snow - two days before it was 22c. On the same year, mid april was very warm with temps high above 25c.. Yet the next week, Toronto got two 14cm of snow over two days.

it ain't over 'til it's over cool.gif

This post has been edited by Regg: Mar 5 2012, 01:19 PM
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yhm_hamilton
post Mar 5 2012, 01:13 PM
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I am surprised TWN didn't show more above normal.
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puttin
post Mar 5 2012, 02:02 PM
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QUOTE(yhm_hamilton @ Mar 5 2012, 01:13 PM) *
I am surprised TWN didn't show more above normal.


Tulips starting to poke through in the gardens and the strength of the sun out of the wind is awesome. Done with winter, can't wait to start the bar-b-que up on Wednesday. Don't like the clocks going ahead, I love my sleep. But soon, it will be cottage country time... where did the time go? But right now, it is freeeeeeezing out there....
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