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> Feb 18 MidAtl/NE Weak Disturbance, Reality: Short Range [0-3 days]
sw03181
post Feb 16 2012, 11:54 PM
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Both the 18z and 0z runs of the GFS/NAM have a weak disturbance associated with the leftover northern stream energy from Canada moving across the Southern and Central New England and possibly the NYC area Saturday evening. Figured I'd open a thread on this considering the fact that the 19-20th event is likely to pass well to our south so we at least have something more interesting to talk about.


--------------------
Rob
Member of the 30" Club
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions:
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5"
50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10


Winter Wx. Events:
11/7-11/9: 7"
11/27-11/29: T
11/30: T (flurries)
12/22: T (lake-effect)
12/24: 1" (clipper)
12/27: 5" (turned to slop)
12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack)
1/16: 4"
1/21:T (norlun)
1/25-1/26: T
1/28: 2"
2/1-2/3:T
2/5: T
2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record)
2/13: T
2/16: 2"
Various T events up to 3/2: .5"
3/6-3/8: 17"
3/18-3/19: 4.5"

10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Feb 17 2012, 12:17 AM
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From: Freehold Boro
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Yea a 1-2" snowfall on the gfs and 2-3" on the nam imby, ill take whatever i can get at this point..


--------------------

Central monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"


Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 37.1"
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HV Snowstorm
post Feb 17 2012, 02:00 AM
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From: Ulster County, NY
Member No.: 17,327



QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Feb 17 2012, 12:17 AM) *
Yea a 1-2" snowfall on the gfs and 2-3" on the nam imby, ill take whatever i can get at this point..


It appers that the "highest" accm. is more into central new york rather than south or south east correct? I am dieing for anything as we all are. A 3-4" event at this point would make my winter!! If anyones around at this point and not looking at our other depressing storm, could you please just give a general idea as to accum. as i can't look at model at this particular moment and im looking for any gleam of hope for a light accumalating event!! Please give the good news !!!!!!!!
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NorEaster07
post Feb 17 2012, 07:56 AM
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From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach)
Member No.: 18,864



QUOTE(sw03181 @ Feb 16 2012, 11:54 PM) *
Both the 18z and 0z runs of the GFS/NAM have a weak disturbance associated with the leftover northern stream energy from Canada moving across the Southern and Central New England and possibly the NYC area Saturday evening. Figured I'd open a thread on this considering the fact that the 19-20th event is likely to pass well to our south so we at least have something more interesting to talk about.



Here's the sounding for BDL for Saturday 10pm. Very little moisture with system. Light snow/flurries here. GFS has more moisture than NAM at this hour.

Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"

Average(since 1950) = 27.75"
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sw03181
post Feb 17 2012, 10:55 AM
Post #5




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12z GFS still has it.


Be nice to at lest see flakes before the folks in the MA do rolleyes.gif


--------------------
Rob
Member of the 30" Club
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions:
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5"
50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10


Winter Wx. Events:
11/7-11/9: 7"
11/27-11/29: T
11/30: T (flurries)
12/22: T (lake-effect)
12/24: 1" (clipper)
12/27: 5" (turned to slop)
12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack)
1/16: 4"
1/21:T (norlun)
1/25-1/26: T
1/28: 2"
2/1-2/3:T
2/5: T
2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record)
2/13: T
2/16: 2"
Various T events up to 3/2: .5"
3/6-3/8: 17"
3/18-3/19: 4.5"

10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget
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moshe from brook...
post Feb 17 2012, 11:30 AM
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Feb 16 2012, 11:54 PM) *
Both the 18z and 0z runs of the GFS/NAM have a weak disturbance associated with the leftover northern stream energy from Canada moving across the Southern and Central New England and possibly the NYC area Saturday evening. Figured I'd open a thread on this considering the fact that the 19-20th event is likely to pass well to our south so we at least have something more interesting to talk about.

this thread is for saturday?


--------------------
WINTER 2012-2013
11/7/12 4.5 nor'easter snow
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LoveNYCSnow
post Feb 17 2012, 03:04 PM
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I'm pretty sure any snow from this system stays north of NYC, we are in the no snow zone with the big system staying south and this one going north, although this should probably not be a big event for anyone but maybe up to an inch in some elevated areas inland.
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sw03181
post Feb 17 2012, 10:10 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Feb 17 2012, 03:04 PM) *
I'm pretty sure any snow from this system stays north of NYC, we are in the no snow zone with the big system staying south and this one going north, although this should probably not be a big event for anyone but maybe up to an inch in some elevated areas inland.

0z NAM says otherwise wink.gif





Lake enhancement helps out Mike in Herkimer laugh.gif


--------------------
Rob
Member of the 30" Club
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions:
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5"
50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10


Winter Wx. Events:
11/7-11/9: 7"
11/27-11/29: T
11/30: T (flurries)
12/22: T (lake-effect)
12/24: 1" (clipper)
12/27: 5" (turned to slop)
12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack)
1/16: 4"
1/21:T (norlun)
1/25-1/26: T
1/28: 2"
2/1-2/3:T
2/5: T
2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record)
2/13: T
2/16: 2"
Various T events up to 3/2: .5"
3/6-3/8: 17"
3/18-3/19: 4.5"

10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget
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LoveNYCSnow
post Feb 17 2012, 10:13 PM
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From: Ulster County
Member No.: 16,816



QUOTE(sw03181 @ Feb 17 2012, 10:10 PM) *
0z NAM says otherwise wink.gif





Lake enhancement helps out Mike in Herkimer laugh.gif


hard to know if thats snow though, surface is warm and the precip will be very light
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sw03181
post Feb 17 2012, 10:15 PM
Post #10




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Posts: 6,921
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From: South Windsor, CT
Member No.: 16,373



QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Feb 17 2012, 10:13 PM) *
hard to know if thats snow though, surface is warm and the precip will be very light

Look again... wink.gif
Attached Image


--------------------
Rob
Member of the 30" Club
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions:
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5"
50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10


Winter Wx. Events:
11/7-11/9: 7"
11/27-11/29: T
11/30: T (flurries)
12/22: T (lake-effect)
12/24: 1" (clipper)
12/27: 5" (turned to slop)
12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack)
1/16: 4"
1/21:T (norlun)
1/25-1/26: T
1/28: 2"
2/1-2/3:T
2/5: T
2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record)
2/13: T
2/16: 2"
Various T events up to 3/2: .5"
3/6-3/8: 17"
3/18-3/19: 4.5"

10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget
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loafer1989
post Feb 18 2012, 11:07 AM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 2,142
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From: Coventry, CT EL: 825'
Member No.: 12,279



The forecast through tonight is calling for 1" or less out of this event, but it would be nice to whiten the ground for a change.


--------------------
2012/2013 winter season:

First Snowfall: November 7th: 9.2"
November 27th: 3.5"
December 25th: 1.3"
December 26th: 6.0"
December 29th: 11.0"
January 16th: 4.5"
January 21st: 1.0"
January 25th: 0.5"
January 28th: 1.5"
February 6th: 1.0" - includes snow from 2/5
February 8th: 32"
February 16th: 2.0"
February 26th: 1.0"
March 7th: 1.5"
March 8th: 21.5"
March 19th: 5.2"

Total 2012/2013 Snowfall: 102.7"
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Feb 18 2012, 04:24 PM
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light snow just started here, the 4th consecutive day i have seen snow in the air..(must be some kind of record or something)...Radar looks crappy with just scattered precip, so i doubt i see the 1-2" forecasted for my area..


--------------------

Central monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"


Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 37.1"
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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 18 2012, 04:46 PM
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Rain

Boundary layer messed it up, as always
Moving on to the next... winter


--------------------
Visit my weather website for the NYC area

Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"):
11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4"

Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"):
06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5",
09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches
12-13: 36.6"
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SnowMan11
post Feb 18 2012, 04:59 PM
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Member No.: 14,017



GFS has around .10 for NYC tonight


--------------------
Anthony
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SnowMan11
post Feb 18 2012, 05:08 PM
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HRRR shows a nice band moving through NYC

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/dis...amp;ptitle=HRRR Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1&wjet=1


--------------------
Anthony
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unravel
post Feb 18 2012, 06:02 PM
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I don't mean to gloat or anything, but it's snowing lightly here. We have a coating, and by the time all is said and done, we may have a slightly thicker coating. Hopefully, the sheer force of excitement absolutely pouring through this post does not knock any of you out of your seats.
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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 18 2012, 06:20 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 18 2012, 04:59 PM) *
GFS has around .10 for NYC tonight

The GFS looks like it's overdoing the QPF in NYC a little. The rain moving through now is the main part of it, with the bands from behind starting to weaken. We'll probably get a little more rain later tonight, but it should stay under 0.1", probably just about enough to wet the roads a little.

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 18 2012, 05:08 PM) *
HRRR shows a nice band moving through NYC

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/dis...amp;ptitle=HRRR Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1&wjet=1

It's coming through right now... temperatures are way into the 40s, it's rain for tonight.


--------------------
Visit my weather website for the NYC area

Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"):
11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4"

Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"):
06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5",
09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches
12-13: 36.6"
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 18 2012, 06:28 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Feb 18 2012, 04:46 PM) *
Rain

Boundary layer messed it up, as always
Moving on to the next... winter

I am with ya Burbs.....I am already looking forward to Winter 2012/13
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jdrenken
post Feb 18 2012, 07:18 PM
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OBS thread


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


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