 February 23-25 Eastern Canada Winter Storm, Cogitation: Medium Range [4-7 days out] forecasts |
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 Feb 19 2012, 05:20 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 9,080 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500  |
This has now showed up consistently on the weather models.
here's a look at the latest 12z models: 12z GGEM:  Pretty warm initial storm, but...     pretty decent secondary. more models in my next post -------------------- New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)! http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/ "Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!" |
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Feb 19 2012, 05:22 PM
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#2
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,080 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 |
12z ECMWF is similar to the 12z GGEM with a warm primary storm, but a nice secondary; just stronger and further east:
  Montreal gets absolutely smacked on thsi run of the ECMWF with the secondary! -------------------- New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)! http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/ "Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!" |
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Feb 19 2012, 05:29 PM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,080 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 |
18z GFS looks similar to the 12z GGEM:
primary storm:  secondary:    certainly an interesting scenario. -------------------- New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)! http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/ "Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!" |
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Feb 19 2012, 11:28 PM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,080 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 |
00z GFS shows a nice secondary:
    just need it a bit east. -------------------- New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)! http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/ "Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!" |
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Feb 19 2012, 11:29 PM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,915 Joined: 19-August 09 From: nova scotia cape breton Member No.: 18,972 |
That scorches nova scotia with mild temps wow
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Feb 20 2012, 06:24 AM
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#6
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,845 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
Overnight guidance still suggesting something significant is coming, but the details are subject to change.
00z ECMWF @ hour 120: 
f120.gif ( 93.99K )
Number of downloads: 1
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif ( 66.94K )
Number of downloads: 1A powerful storm with a fierce northwesterly flow in behind. The center of the low could shift east just slightly to make it look a little better, but that's still up in the air (no pun intended lol). 06z GFS @ hour 114:
gfs_namer_114_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.23K )
Number of downloads: 3Even further west with the center of the low. Not a good scenario for snow for a lot of areas this way. Snowfall maps in my next post from both models. |
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Feb 20 2012, 06:32 AM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,845 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
06z GFS 24-hour snowfall @ hour 132:
USA_ASNOW24_sfc_132.gif ( 33.15K )
Number of downloads: 100z ECMWF snowfall @ hour 108:
eurosnow108.jpg ( 415.88K )
Number of downloads: 2Hour 111:
eurosnow111.jpg ( 428.81K )
Number of downloads: 1Hour 114:
eurosnow114.jpg ( 441.28K )
Number of downloads: 2Hour 117:
eurosnow117.jpg ( 439.77K )
Number of downloads: 0Hour 120:
eurosnow120.jpg ( 442.84K )
Number of downloads: 1 |
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Feb 20 2012, 07:29 AM
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,845 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
To go a bit further in-depth, a comparison of the ensembles from both the Euro and the GFS.
ECWMF ensembles @ hour 120:
00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS120.gif ( 63.9K )
Number of downloads: 1GFS ensembles @ hour 108:
06zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS108.gif ( 60.3K )
Number of downloads: 1Also, the sequence of events from the 00z CMC starting with hour 108:
f108.gif ( 108.02K )
Number of downloads: 0Hour 114:
f114.gif ( 106.62K )
Number of downloads: 0Hour 120:
f120.gif ( 107.58K )
Number of downloads: 0 |
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Feb 20 2012, 07:32 AM
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#9
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 395 Joined: 15-December 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 24,677 |
How is it trending?
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Feb 20 2012, 07:43 AM
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#10
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,845 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
QUOTE(Aylmer @ Feb 20 2012, 07:32 AM)  How is it trending? The 12z runs through today will give more clues. The Euro and Canadian are farther east with the center of the low by hour 120 compared to the GFS, though not quite far enough yet. |
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Feb 20 2012, 09:00 AM
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#11
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,119 Joined: 23-November 10 From: Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 24,422 |
Wow! The biggest storm of the year and it's all RAIN. 25 - 35 mm according to TWN. I can't wait
 That should pretty much take care of most of the snowpack with the warm temps and all that rain. Spring has sprung 
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Feb 20 2012, 11:11 AM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,080 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 |
primary storm further south and colder on the 12z GFS...
   Let's see what happens with the secondary if there is one. -------------------- New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)! http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/ "Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!" |
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Feb 20 2012, 11:18 AM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,080 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 |
further east with the secondary on the 12z GFS:
   total snow:  getting closer... -------------------- New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)! http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/ "Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!" |
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Feb 20 2012, 01:28 PM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,845 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
12z ECMWF @ hour 96:
12zeuro850mbTSLPUS096.gif ( 64.6K )
Number of downloads: 0Hour 120, powerful storm leaving the stage and an intense NNW flow in it's wake:
12zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif ( 65.2K )
Number of downloads: 2Will update with some snowfall maps as they come in. |
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Feb 20 2012, 01:41 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,845 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
12z ECMWF snowfall @ hour 99:
eurosnow99.jpg ( 444.76K )
Number of downloads: 7Hour 102:
eurosnow102.jpg ( 450.4K )
Number of downloads: 6Hour 105:
eurosnow105.jpg ( 453.9K )
Number of downloads: 5Hour 108:
eurosnow108.jpg ( 457.23K )
Number of downloads: 5 |
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Feb 20 2012, 01:49 PM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 763 Joined: 15-February 09 From: Toronto Member No.: 17,593 |
Thats a nice dump of snow across the region!
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Feb 20 2012, 04:31 PM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,080 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 |
12z ECMWF very nice for Toronto region.
-------------------- New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)! http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/ "Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!" |
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Feb 20 2012, 05:12 PM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,845 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
Gonna assume you're watching the 18z GFS running now Toronto, hopefully it comes through for everyone.
The 12z CMC loop is a bit far off to the east but is significantly colder than earlier runs which were lacking in much snow. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html |
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Feb 20 2012, 05:43 PM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,845 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
Hmm, the 18z GFS misses wide right. Hour 105:
gfs_namer_105_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.16K )
Number of downloads: 0Euro likes this system and not the 26-28th storm, this run of the GFS is the reverse of that idea. |
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Feb 20 2012, 05:59 PM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,915 Joined: 19-August 09 From: nova scotia cape breton Member No.: 18,972 |
QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 20 2012, 06:43 PM) Hmm, the 18z GFS misses wide right. Hour 105:
gfs_namer_105_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.16K )
Number of downloads: 0Euro likes this system and not the 26-28th storm, this run of the GFS is the reverse of that idea. That looks awesome for me in nova scotia looks like a nor easter type storm |
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