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> February 23-25 Eastern Canada Winter Storm, Cogitation: Medium Range [4-7 days out] forecasts
Torontoweather
post Feb 19 2012, 05:20 PM
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This has now showed up consistently on the weather models.
here's a look at the latest 12z models:
12z GGEM:


Pretty warm initial storm, but...










pretty decent secondary.

more models in my next post


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Torontoweather
post Feb 19 2012, 05:22 PM
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12z ECMWF is similar to the 12z GGEM with a warm primary storm, but a nice secondary; just stronger and further east:




Montreal gets absolutely smacked on thsi run of the ECMWF with the secondary!


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Torontoweather
post Feb 19 2012, 05:29 PM
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18z GFS looks similar to the 12z GGEM:
primary storm:


secondary:






certainly an interesting scenario.


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Torontoweather
post Feb 19 2012, 11:28 PM
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00z GFS shows a nice secondary:








just need it a bit east.


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shane o mac
post Feb 19 2012, 11:29 PM
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That scorches nova scotia with mild temps wow
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bigmt
post Feb 20 2012, 06:24 AM
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Overnight guidance still suggesting something significant is coming, but the details are subject to change.

00z ECMWF @ hour 120:

Attached File  f120.gif ( 93.99K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  00zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif ( 66.94K ) Number of downloads: 1


A powerful storm with a fierce northwesterly flow in behind. The center of the low could shift east just slightly to make it look a little better, but that's still up in the air (no pun intended lol).

06z GFS @ hour 114:

Attached File  gfs_namer_114_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.23K ) Number of downloads: 3


Even further west with the center of the low. Not a good scenario for snow for a lot of areas this way.

Snowfall maps in my next post from both models.
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bigmt
post Feb 20 2012, 06:32 AM
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06z GFS 24-hour snowfall @ hour 132:

Attached File  USA_ASNOW24_sfc_132.gif ( 33.15K ) Number of downloads: 1


00z ECMWF snowfall @ hour 108:

Attached File  eurosnow108.jpg ( 415.88K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 111:

Attached File  eurosnow111.jpg ( 428.81K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 114:

Attached File  eurosnow114.jpg ( 441.28K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 117:

Attached File  eurosnow117.jpg ( 439.77K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  eurosnow120.jpg ( 442.84K ) Number of downloads: 1
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bigmt
post Feb 20 2012, 07:29 AM
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To go a bit further in-depth, a comparison of the ensembles from both the Euro and the GFS.

ECWMF ensembles @ hour 120:

Attached File  00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS120.gif ( 63.9K ) Number of downloads: 1


GFS ensembles @ hour 108:

Attached File  06zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS108.gif ( 60.3K ) Number of downloads: 1


Also, the sequence of events from the 00z CMC starting with hour 108:

Attached File  f108.gif ( 108.02K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 114:

Attached File  f114.gif ( 106.62K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  f120.gif ( 107.58K ) Number of downloads: 0
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Aylmer
post Feb 20 2012, 07:32 AM
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How is it trending?
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bigmt
post Feb 20 2012, 07:43 AM
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QUOTE(Aylmer @ Feb 20 2012, 07:32 AM) *
How is it trending?


The 12z runs through today will give more clues. The Euro and Canadian are farther east with the center of the low by hour 120 compared to the GFS, though not quite far enough yet.
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JJ Snowlover
post Feb 20 2012, 09:00 AM
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Wow! The biggest storm of the year and it's all RAIN. 25 - 35 mm according to TWN. I can't wait blink.gif

That should pretty much take care of most of the snowpack with the warm temps and all that rain. Spring has sprung tongue.gif
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Torontoweather
post Feb 20 2012, 11:11 AM
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primary storm further south and colder on the 12z GFS...






Let's see what happens with the secondary if there is one.


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Torontoweather
post Feb 20 2012, 11:18 AM
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further east with the secondary on the 12z GFS:








total snow:


getting closer...


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bigmt
post Feb 20 2012, 01:28 PM
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12z ECMWF @ hour 96:

Attached File  12zeuro850mbTSLPUS096.gif ( 64.6K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120, powerful storm leaving the stage and an intense NNW flow in it's wake:

Attached File  12zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif ( 65.2K ) Number of downloads: 2


Will update with some snowfall maps as they come in.
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bigmt
post Feb 20 2012, 01:41 PM
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12z ECMWF snowfall @ hour 99:

Attached File  eurosnow99.jpg ( 444.76K ) Number of downloads: 7


Hour 102:

Attached File  eurosnow102.jpg ( 450.4K ) Number of downloads: 6


Hour 105:

Attached File  eurosnow105.jpg ( 453.9K ) Number of downloads: 5


Hour 108:

Attached File  eurosnow108.jpg ( 457.23K ) Number of downloads: 5
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weatherman 23
post Feb 20 2012, 01:49 PM
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Thats a nice dump of snow across the region!
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Torontoweather
post Feb 20 2012, 04:31 PM
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12z ECMWF very nice for Toronto region.


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Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)!
http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/

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bigmt
post Feb 20 2012, 05:12 PM
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Gonna assume you're watching the 18z GFS running now Toronto, hopefully it comes through for everyone.

The 12z CMC loop is a bit far off to the east but is significantly colder than earlier runs which were lacking in much snow.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html
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bigmt
post Feb 20 2012, 05:43 PM
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Hmm, the 18z GFS misses wide right. Hour 105:

Attached File  gfs_namer_105_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.16K ) Number of downloads: 0


Euro likes this system and not the 26-28th storm, this run of the GFS is the reverse of that idea.
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shane o mac
post Feb 20 2012, 05:59 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 20 2012, 06:43 PM) *
Hmm, the 18z GFS misses wide right. Hour 105:

Attached File  gfs_namer_105_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.16K ) Number of downloads: 0


Euro likes this system and not the 26-28th storm, this run of the GFS is the reverse of that idea.

That looks awesome for me in nova scotia looks like a nor easter type storm
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