Feb 23-25 SE Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Moderate Risk - Forecasts & OBS Options

[snowrawrsnow]

I hope I started this topic right, first time starting a severe weather topic. I wasn't sure to include the 22, but I figured if it is a different system it can be changed.

The SPC has a 30% hatched area out for Thursday...


As well as a strongly worded outlook;

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AND ERN TX INTO A
PORTION OF THE SERN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS HAVE CONVERGED TO SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO EVOLUTION
OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT...AND
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MS VALLEY AS A STRONG
UPPER JET DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...REACHING THE
SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SWLY LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SERN STATES AND OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER
EJECTION OF SRN STREAM UPPER LOW THAT WILL CUTOFF OVER NRN MEXICO
AND IS NOW SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THE NAM STILL BEING THE SLOWEST
MODEL. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY REACH SRN TX LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE PRIMARY CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
OH VALLEY OR GREAT LAKES WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN STATES.

...SERN STATES...

POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THURSDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

STRENGTHENING SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD
TRANSPORT OF MODIFYING GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S
OVER SRN AND ERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES TO NEAR 50 OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE PLUME
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT EWD AND OVERTAKE THE WRN EDGE OF
THE MOIST AXIS. MLCAPE IN THIS REGION COULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG. HOWEVER...THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
MUCH OF THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY EVENING IN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING WAVE AND STRENGTHENING
LLJ. ACTIVITY WILL EXIST WITHIN A STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AS
LLJ INCREASES TO IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH UPSCALE GROWTH
LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD.


...OH VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH NWD EXTENT INTO
THE OH VALLEY WITH MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG LIKELY. FORCING WITHIN
FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROMOTE A LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED
WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DESPITE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY SOME THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND. LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED...BUT
AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...TX...

A FEW STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG SWRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT
INTO ERN AND SRN TX WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IN
THIS REGION WILL BE MORE CAPPED AND COVERAGE OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SRN TX WILL BE MODULATED BY TIMING OF SRN STREAM WAVE. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL.

..DIAL.. 02/21/2012

/DAY 4/

A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES FROM NRN FL...GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
THE DELMARVA REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING KINEMATIC FIELDS WITHIN MOIST WARM SECTOR.

Jackson, Miss. Disco for the event:

CODE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES HAS CHANGED AGAIN CONCERNING THE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR OUR CWA. SPLIT
FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH BOTH ACTIVE BRANCHES
AFFECTING OUR CWA. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT A DIGGING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO
SET THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND TORNADOES THURSDAY
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE
THURSDAY LIMITING DAYTIME CONVECTION AND HELPING TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE MID 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 60S AND PWS NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF ARE EXPECTED TO POOL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MLCAPES OF 800-1000J/KG IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF 50-60KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
250-300M2/S2 ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE TO AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS NEAR MIDNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR SOUTHEAST MOST
ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY.

This post has been edited by jdrenken: Feb 21 2012, 03:51 PM

[beninbaltimore]

If the EURO is right on strength, there will certainly be some big storms coming in this period. A slower/slightly North track would bring more of the Mid-Atlantic into play especially with temperatures potentially reaching the 70's here on Thursday and 60's on Friday.

This post has been edited by beninbaltimore: Feb 21 2012, 09:37 AM

[Mid Tn. Man]

GFS has switched with the NAM with the system just sitting in the Bajas,shouldn't be a severe outbreak if that happens for the SE.But it looks windy.

[jdrenken]

The late 22nd and early 23rd 'Slight Risk' is a s/w prior to this one.

[sak]

This is a comparison of the STP from the horrible outbreak that hit Alabama and other states back on April 27th compared to the upcoming event. Clearly not as alarming, but very significant nonetheless. Unless something changes, I fully expect a moderate risk to go up for portions of Mississippi and Alabama for Thursday PM and overnight into Friday.

Pretty ugly looking map for many places that were devastated by EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes back in April, not to mention a significant EF-3 in an overnight event on January 23rd (a month ago to the day?).

Hopefully the systems won't phase, but even if they don't, there could be enough instability and helicity for tornadoes.

This post has been edited by sak: Feb 21 2012, 04:29 PM

[beninbaltimore]

This is a comparison of the STP from the horrible outbreak that hit Alabama and other states back on April 27th compared to the upcoming event. Clearly not as alarming, but very significant nonetheless. Unless something changes, I fully expect a moderate risk to go up for portions of Mississippi and Alabama for Thursday PM and overnight into Friday.

Pretty ugly looking map for many places that were devastated by EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes back in April, not to mention a significant EF-3 in an overnight event on January 23rd (a month ago to the day?).

Hopefully the systems won't phase, but even if they don't, there could be enough instability and helicity for tornadoes.

Those parameters are at 9pm, a certainly scary scenario if it plays out in the dark....

[31B militaryPoli...]

Just now checking the models. 0Z NAM really struggling with low-level moisture...850MB Tds are very low, and with unidirectional wind profiles showing up support an enhanced damaging wind threat. But the lack of low-level moisture is concerning...

12Z Euro had quite a dynamic storm...

[Mid Tn. Man]

Just now checking the models. 0Z NAM really struggling with low-level moisture...850MB Tds are very low, and with unidirectional wind profiles showing up support an enhanced damaging wind threat. But the lack of low-level moisture is concerning...

12Z Euro had quite a dynamic storm...

Euro kicks the vort out like i said earlier than the NAM or GFS.GFS did have the same idea as the Euro hrs. back with phasing it but like the NAM now it waits roughly 24 hrs before ejecting it from by the Bajas,like the Euro does.If the Euro is right (i don't think it is) we'll be in for a nasty ride.

This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Feb 21 2012, 11:50 PM

[31B militaryPoli...]

Euro kicks the vort out like i said earlier than the NAM or GFS.GFS did have the same idea as the Euro hrs. back with phasing it but like the NAM now it waits roughly 24 hrs before ejecting it from by the Bajas,like the Euro does.If the Euro is right (i don't think it is) we'll be in for a nasty ride.

SPC mentions the Baja energy in latest Day 2 update, and as expected has lowered severe probs.

...SERN STATES...

HAVE SCALED BACK ON SEVERE PROBABILITIES DUE IN PART TO POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTORS LIKELY TO BE IMPOSED BY EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT SRN STREAM CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW
OVER CNTRL BAJA WILL NOT AFFECT THIS REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY EARLIER ECMWF RUNS. THE 850 MB TRAJECTORIES
WILL REMAIN WLY UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
BACK SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING TROUGH. THE WLY TRAJECTORIES
SHOULD LIMIT NWD EXTENT OF QUALITY MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...BUT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT INTO SRN
HALF OF SERN STATES. WARMER AIR ALOFT AT BASE OF EWD ADVECTING EML
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CAP OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN DEEPER
FRONTAL FORCING WILL REMAIN FARTHER NORTH ACROSS TN AND OH
VALLEYS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE IN THIS
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD AND INTERACTS WITH
RICHER MOISTURE RESIDING OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OVER THE SERN STATES.
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS.
GIVEN STRONG LINEAR FORCING...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO GROW
UPSCALE...BUT EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[sak]

STP's and overall probabilities have come way down. hopefully this thing blows over without too much fanfare.

[jdrenken]

We have been upgraded to moderate risk.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN/ERN VA SWD INTO
CNTRL/ERN NC AND SC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT IL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION
AS IT CONTINUES E/NE TO THE LWR GRT LKS THIS EVE AND INTO ME/NB
EARLY SAT. ASSOCIATED MID LVL JET STREAK NOW CENTERED OVER THE
OZARKS/LWR OH VLY ALSO SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY...WITH 500 MB SWLY WINDS INCREASING TO AOA
110 KT OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA. THE MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD DEEPEN NNEWD
FROM OH TO LK ONTARIO...WITH A SECONDARY CENTER POSSIBLY FORMING
ALONG STNRY FRONT OVER MD/DE. AS THE OH LOW DEEPENS...ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE E/SE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY
EARLY AFTN. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
SW ACROSS THE S ATLANTIC CSTL PLN BY EVE...AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR NUMEROUS STRONG TO SVR TSTMS.

...SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC TODAY/EARLY TNGT ...
COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WIND FIELD OVERSPREADING A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE...GRADUALLY MOISTENING WARM SECTOR WILL YIELD AN ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WITH DMGG WIND AND TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC CSTL PLN TODAY.

WHILE THE MIDWESTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN LARGELY POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT CONTINUES ENEWD...CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AS ASSOCIATED
JET STREAK SWEEPS ENE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SFC HEATING AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION/MOISTENING AT
700 MB...SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN/ELIMINATE EXISTING WARM SECTOR CINH
AND SUPPORT INCREASING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SCTD CONVECTION NOW
PRESENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE DYNAMICAL
PART OF THIS PROCESS ALREADY MAY BE UNDERWAY OVER THE SW PART OF SVR
RISK AREA...GIVEN RECENT STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION/STORMS IN
AL/GA.

THE AL/GA TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER TIME
NEWD INTO NC/VA. DEVELOPMENT IN THE CAROLINAS AND VA WILL BE
ENCOURAGED BY INFLOW OF MORE MOIST AIR /PW AOA 1.5 INCHES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LWR 60S F/ FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST...AND BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSING E FROM OVERNIGHT
STORMS IN KY/TN.

50-60 KT SWLY LLJ BENEATH STRENGTHENING MID/UPR LVL FLOW WILL YIELD
70+ KT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR. ASSUMING THE PRESENCE OF SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS...LONG...SLIGHTLY HOOKED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR SUPERCELL STORMS/SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF BOTH SWATHS OF DMGG WIND
AND TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER PARTS OF SRN/ERN
VA SWD INTO CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...WHERE HEATING SHOULD
BE GREATEST INVOF LWR TROPOSPHERIC WIND MAX. THE STORMS EVENTUALLY
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINES...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/MESOSCALE
CIRCULATIONS EXTENDING THE SVR THREAT TO THE CST BY EARLY EVE.

..CORFIDI/JIRAK.. 02/24/2012

[WeatherMonger]

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
VIRGINIA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VIRGINIA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE ERN GULF COAST
REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST

A BAND OF VERY STRONG JET STREAM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE
NOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL SWEEP EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES.

THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL ACCELERATE EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UNUSUALLY WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM ALABAMA AND GEORGIA TO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM EAST OF THE FRONT AS
DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER ENHANCES INSTABILITY.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WARMTH AND MOISTURE BENEATH
STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SWATHS OF
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE
GREATEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINA...BUT MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
COULD OCCUR FROM PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI... ALABAMA...NORTH
FLORIDA...AND GEORGIA TO PARTS OF MARYLAND AND DELAWARE.

THE STORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..CORFIDI.. 02/24/2012

$$

[beninbaltimore]

Well isn't this exciting for February. I don't mean exciting as in I'm happy, but still it's not super common to see a moderate risk issued in late February for the SE and Southern MA.

[snowrawrsnow]

Morning everyone! Wasn't expecting a Moderate Risk today, but it definitely looks warranted. Thunderstorms are starting to erupt, and two Tornado Risks have been issued, one of the biggest I've ever seen myself, extending through Mississippi to South Carolina.

Violent day ahead of us...

[Nicole]

This will definately be an intersting day for me.... It's a good thing my boss "understands" me and is supportive of my weather hobby, lol...

This post has been edited by Nicole: Feb 24 2012, 09:28 AM

[WeatherMonger]

0Z WRF-NMM

[FarmingdaleFarme...]

Is there any possibility that this couldeveolve into a widespread tornado outbreak?

This post has been edited by FarmingdaleFarmer: Feb 24 2012, 09:54 AM

[psu1313]

DC and Baltimore are stuck under a low cloud deck and that's keeping the temps down. The energy probably won't be available based on observations for severe storms until you get south to around Richmond.

[jdrenken]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 35
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 850 AM UNTIL 400
PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
AXIS OF CONFLUENCE AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SE SIDE OF
POTENT...AMPLIFYING IL UPR TROUGH.. WHILE STORMS TO THIS POINT HAVE
BEEN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SFC-BASED. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID LVL WIND FIELD AND ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS/BOWS
WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND SWATHS OF DMGG WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.


...CORFIDI

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

WT 0035
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 50%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 10%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 65
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26050
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU5.

[jdrenken]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 36
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
FAR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 920 AM UNTIL 400
PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF LYNCHBURG
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 35...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING AHEAD ON ACCELERATING COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. COUPLED WITH CONTINUED
INFLOW OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN WRN NC AND S CNTRL
VA...AND INTENSIFYING LOW TO MID LVL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
AMPLIFYING IL UPR TROUGH...SETUP COULD SUPPORT BANDS/SHORT LINES OF
SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR NARROW SWATHS
OF DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26055.


...CORFIDI

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0819 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

WT 0036
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 450
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26055
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU6.