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> Feb 24-25th Western Canada Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range
bigmt
post Feb 21 2012, 05:22 PM
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This bears watching for interests on the west coast, don't wanna overstep my bounds with topic creation but I don't want to forget them either.

18z NAM @ hour 78:

Attached File  nam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.46K ) Number of downloads: 0


18z GFS @ hour 75:

Attached File  gfs_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.53K ) Number of downloads: 0


24-hour snowfall @ hour 87:

Attached File  CAN_ASNOW24_sfc_087.gif ( 36.21K ) Number of downloads: 1


Images from the Euro, including snowfall maps which are updating from the 12z run finally in my next post.

This post has been edited by bigmt: Feb 23 2012, 11:11 AM
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hcr32
post Feb 21 2012, 05:29 PM
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Thanks bigmt!
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bigmt
post Feb 21 2012, 05:43 PM
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Snowfall maps from the 12z ECMWF.

Hour 72:

Attached File  eurosnow72.jpg ( 571.89K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 75:

Attached File  eurosnow75.jpg ( 559.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 78:

Attached File  eurosnow78.jpg ( 567.71K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 81:

Attached File  eurosnow81.jpg ( 586.4K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 84:

Attached File  eurosnow84.jpg ( 596.24K ) Number of downloads: 1
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bigmt
post Feb 21 2012, 08:14 PM
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HPC snow probability maps for day 3, 4+inches:

Attached File  day3_psnow_gt_04.gif ( 18.26K ) Number of downloads: 1


8+ inches:

Attached File  day3_psnow_gt_08.gif ( 16.5K ) Number of downloads: 1
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hcr32
post Feb 21 2012, 08:17 PM
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Wow, this is looking more and more like it could turn into something decent for here.

I will definitely keep you guys updated and if it does turn into a decent snowfall I'll get some pictures!
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bigmt
post Feb 21 2012, 09:53 PM
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00z NAM @ hour 69:

Attached File  nam_namer_069_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.97K ) Number of downloads: 1


24-hour snowfall @ hour 78:

Attached File  USA_ASNOW24_sfc_078.gif ( 30.46K ) Number of downloads: 1
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bigmt
post Feb 22 2012, 06:33 AM
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HPC snow probability map, 4+ inches:

Attached File  day3_psnow_gt_04.gif ( 19.07K ) Number of downloads: 1


8+ inches:

Attached File  day3_psnow_gt_08.gif ( 16.91K ) Number of downloads: 1


HPC Winter Weather Discussion:

QUOTE
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR FRIDAY AS DEEP AND INTENSE SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN BC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
DEEP-LAYERED FRONTOGENESIS RESULTS FROM A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WARM
FRONT MIGRATING WEST TO EAST FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OREGON...ATOP A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE
ALONG/EAST OF THE CASCADE SPINE. THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
A RATHER DEEP AND UNSTABLE MARITIME AIRMASS AND PRONOUNCED COLD
FRONT THAT SURGES AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS WELL
EAST OF THE 115W LONGITUDE BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED NEAREST THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
PUGET SOUND AND OLYMPICS...WITH SNOW LEVELS PLUNGING TO NEAR SEA
LEVEL. ACROSS OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE AND TAIL END OF THE FRONT RESPECTIVELY...SNOW LEVELS FALL TO
1000-1500FT MSL ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND VALLEY FLOORS INLAND.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
VOJTESAK
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bigmt
post Feb 22 2012, 06:39 AM
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06z GFS @ hour 63:

Attached File  gfs_namer_063_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 61.99K ) Number of downloads: 0


24-hour snowfall @ hour 69:

Attached File  USA_ASNOW24_sfc_069.gif ( 28.46K ) Number of downloads: 0


00z ECMWF @ hour 72:

Attached File  00zeuro850mbTSLPNA072.gif ( 76.41K ) Number of downloads: 0


Snowfall @ hour 63:

Attached File  eurosnow63.jpg ( 464.92K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 66:

Attached File  eurosnow66.jpg ( 467.95K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 69:

Attached File  eurosnow69.jpg ( 465.05K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Feb 22 2012, 11:12 AM
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12z GFS @ hour 60:

Attached File  gfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.84K ) Number of downloads: 0


24-hour snowfall @ hour 66:

Attached File  USA_ASNOW24_sfc_066.gif ( 28.35K ) Number of downloads: 1
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bigmt
post Feb 22 2012, 01:37 PM
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12z ECMWF @ hour 48:

Attached File  12zeuro850mbTSLPNA048.gif ( 75.84K ) Number of downloads: 1


Snowfall @ hour 48:

Attached File  eurosnow48.jpg ( 465.43K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 51:

Attached File  eurosnow51.jpg ( 463.96K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 54:

Attached File  eurosnow54.jpg ( 465.37K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 57:

Attached File  eurosnow57.jpg ( 467.63K ) Number of downloads: 1
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hcr32
post Feb 22 2012, 01:53 PM
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Thanks again for the updates bigmt!
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bigmt
post Feb 22 2012, 01:56 PM
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QUOTE(hcr32 @ Feb 22 2012, 01:53 PM) *
Thanks again for the updates bigmt!


I wouldn't forget about you guys out there smile.gif

Brett has something too in his blog.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...-the-west/61917

QUOTE
Western Cold

Two to three day shot of very cold air coming into western Canada starting this weekend then a brief recovery before a longer duration period of cold weather sets up across Alaska and a large part of western Canada through the first 10 days of March.

In addition to the cold, a storm will spread anywhere from 5-15 cm of snow from southern/central Alberta to southern Saskatchewan Saturday and Saturday evening.

By the time it gets cold enough for snow in Vancouver, BC Saturday night and Sunday the bulk of the moisture will have already shifted to the south and east, but during this period there will likely be some snow showers.
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hcr32
post Feb 22 2012, 02:04 PM
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So Im guessing Brett thinks it'll be mostly a rain event here..
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bigmt
post Feb 22 2012, 02:29 PM
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QUOTE(hcr32 @ Feb 22 2012, 02:04 PM) *
So Im guessing Brett thinks it'll be mostly a rain event here..


You'll have to let us know what happens, along with the other posters from the area.

There's a big question mark about whether this is the beginning of a longer-term cold pattern for the west or if it's temporary as was the cold spell in January, since this will have broad implications if the east coast is going to be warm. Many of the analog years we've looked at in the spring thread are weighted towards a cooler spring for the west and this could be a preview of that setup perhaps, although this is anything but certain.

I'll be continuing to look at possibilities in the spring thread.
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hcr32
post Feb 22 2012, 06:18 PM
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Snow Probability Maps:

4"+


8"+


And just for fun, 12"+
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bigmt
post Feb 22 2012, 09:33 PM
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00z NAM @ hour 48:

Attached File  nam_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.27K ) Number of downloads: 0


24-hour snowfall @ hour 51:

Attached File  USA_ASNOW24_sfc_051.gif ( 30.14K ) Number of downloads: 4
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bigmt
post Feb 23 2012, 07:03 AM
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06z NAM @ hour 39:

Attached File  nam_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.1K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip type:

Attached File  USA_PTYPE_sfc_039.gif ( 17.7K ) Number of downloads: 1


24-hour snowfall @ hour 48:

Attached File  USA_ASNOW24_sfc_048.gif ( 30.43K ) Number of downloads: 0


HPC snow probability maps, day 2 4+ inches:

Attached File  day2_psnow_gt_04.gif ( 19.06K ) Number of downloads: 1


Day 2, 8+ inches:

Attached File  day2_psnow_gt_08.gif ( 17.13K ) Number of downloads: 1
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bigmt
post Feb 23 2012, 11:08 AM
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SWS from EC.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SW..._e.html?prov=bc

QUOTE
WOCN11 CWVR 231247
Special weather statement
Issued by Environment Canada
At 4:47 AM PST Thursday 23 February 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= Metro Vancouver
=new= Fraser Valley
=new= Sunshine Coast
=new= East Vancouver Island
=new= Inland Vancouver Island.

Highly variable snowfall accumulations across the south coast
Thursday night and Friday...

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
A Pacific low pressure system will approach the BC coast Thursday
evening. Moisture from the low mixed with cold air over the south
coast will produce a mixture of snow and rain across the region.

Precipitation is expected to begin over Vancouver Island and the
Sunshine Coast late Thursday evening then spread to Metro Vancouver
before Friday morning. In this weather pattern with temperatures near
or just above freezing, variability in snowfall accumulations due to
local effects is to be expected.

The freezing level is forecast to remain at or below 400 metres
through Friday morning. Snowfall accumulations will be somewhat
elevation dependent but snow is also possible at sea level. Also, at
higher elevations local snowfall accumulations in the range of 5
centimetres are possible. There is enough moisture with this low to
produce locally higher accumulations perhaps as high as 10
centimetres.

At present snowfall warnings have not been issued. However, slight
increases in expected accumulations may prompt snowfall warnings for
some regions. The precipitation may change to rain before Friday
afternoon as slightly warmer air moves in from the coast.


The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca


End
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bigmt
post Feb 23 2012, 01:37 PM
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12z ECMWF @ hour 24:

Attached File  12zeuro850mbTSLPNA024.gif ( 76.37K ) Number of downloads: 0


Snowfall @ hour 27:

Attached File  eurosnowhour27.jpg ( 555.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 30:

Attached File  eurosnowhour30.jpg ( 564.43K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 33:

Attached File  eurosnowhour33.jpg ( 585.4K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Feb 23 2012, 01:39 PM
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15z HRRR precip type @ hour 11:

Attached File  ptyp_t1sfc_f11.png ( 79K ) Number of downloads: 1
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