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> Feb. 28-Mar. 1 Plains/MW/GL/OV Blizzard, Possibility: Short Range [0-3 Days Out Forecast]
Juniorrr
post Feb 21 2012, 06:23 PM
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All models show a 3rd system in what appears to be an active next couple of weeks.
Keep in mind this is far away and anything is likely.
18z GFS


12z GGEM


12z Euro


This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Feb 27 2012, 08:35 AM
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snowlover2
post Feb 21 2012, 06:27 PM
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Just a heads up, there is no Feb. 30. laugh.gif


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:6

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Warnings:0
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Juniorrr
post Feb 21 2012, 06:27 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Feb 21 2012, 06:27 PM) *
Just a heads up, there is no Feb. 30. laugh.gif

Oops wink.gif
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CIWeather
post Feb 21 2012, 09:34 PM
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Move this map a little further to the northeast and then lock it in! wink.gif

Source

This post has been edited by CIWeather: Feb 21 2012, 09:35 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
2012-2013 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow: 11/26/12 (Rain/Snow Mix; First Forecasted on 11/20/12)
First Snowflakes: 11/26/12
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: 12/31/12 (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 3/22/13
First Winter Storm Warning: 2/21/13 FINALLY!!!
First Blizzard Watch/Warning: 12/20/12
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings: 1
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings: 1
First 1" Snowfall: 12/31/12

2013 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks:
Moderate Risks:
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches:
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2011: 15-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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WeatherMonger
post Feb 21 2012, 10:35 PM
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QUOTE(CIWeather @ Feb 21 2012, 08:34 PM) *
Move this map a little further to the northeast and then lock it in! wink.gif

Source

This gives a little better representation to the dates of the thread, but same totals as for where you're referring. If it doesn't warm and turn it to liquid if it were to happen, I'd half expect a 45 degree turn CCW to the swath. It's just not the year for big snows between the mountain ranges, or east of the rockies for that matter.

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CIWeather
post Feb 21 2012, 11:01 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Feb 21 2012, 09:35 PM) *
This gives a little better representation to the dates of the thread, but same totals as for where you're referring. If it doesn't warm and turn it to liquid if it were to happen, I'd half expect a 45 degree turn CCW to the swath. It's just not the year for big snows between the mountain ranges, or east of the rockies for that matter.



Yeah, I just realized that I forgot to change the time frame on the map before I saved it. Also, your image isn't showing up.

It will be interesting to see what the 0z run of the GFS shows here in about an hour or so.

This post has been edited by CIWeather: Feb 21 2012, 11:04 PM


--------------------
2012-2013 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow: 11/26/12 (Rain/Snow Mix; First Forecasted on 11/20/12)
First Snowflakes: 11/26/12
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: 12/31/12 (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 3/22/13
First Winter Storm Warning: 2/21/13 FINALLY!!!
First Blizzard Watch/Warning: 12/20/12
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings: 1
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings: 1
First 1" Snowfall: 12/31/12

2013 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks:
Moderate Risks:
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches:
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2011: 15-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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snowlover2
post Feb 21 2012, 11:43 PM
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Still there on the 0z GFS. Thats about the only good thing about it.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:6

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Warnings:0
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CIWeather
post Feb 21 2012, 11:59 PM
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Here is the 0z GFS map...compare to the one I posted above of the 18z...what a difference a run of the models makes!

Source
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
2012-2013 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow: 11/26/12 (Rain/Snow Mix; First Forecasted on 11/20/12)
First Snowflakes: 11/26/12
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: 12/31/12 (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 3/22/13
First Winter Storm Warning: 2/21/13 FINALLY!!!
First Blizzard Watch/Warning: 12/20/12
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings: 1
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings: 1
First 1" Snowfall: 12/31/12

2013 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks:
Moderate Risks:
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches:
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2011: 15-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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Juniorrr
post Feb 22 2012, 07:14 AM
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06z GFS still has it.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 22 2012, 11:21 AM
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yawn
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Illinois blizzar...
post Feb 22 2012, 12:08 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Feb 22 2012, 12:21 PM) *
yawn


Spring, Spring, Spring...wub.gif


--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 22 2012, 02:24 PM
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solid T-storm outbreak if the 12z gfs verifies

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Feb 22 2012, 02:32 PM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 22 2012, 02:32 PM
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yeah yeah yeah.....been there done that at day 7.






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ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 22 2012, 02:35 PM
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eye candy at this point on the ECM....given the late winter tendencies EVERY year...I see this being an explosive storm....naturally cutting it in to the MW like the GFS....not like an early JAN set up like the ECM
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Juniorrr
post Feb 22 2012, 02:54 PM
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*Must not get excited over 12z Euro*
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paletitsnow63
post Feb 22 2012, 03:14 PM
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Check it out! The ultimate eye candy for a snow starved E CONUS. If only it would be true! tongue.gif laugh.gif

http://wxug.us/kk5p

This is the Weatherunderground Wundermap showing the 12Z Euro. After clicking the link select "snowfall" under map type. ECMWF should already be selected. Then click play.

Look what happens when it gets to about H150 and up through the end of the run at H180. Too bad it doesn't go out to H192. It hammers an area with snow from Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, MD, PA, NJ. I'm sure if H192 was on there it would be putting some nore heavy snow down. Looks like large areas are seeing over an inch per hour.
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JymGanahlRocks
post Feb 22 2012, 03:14 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Feb 22 2012, 02:35 PM) *
eye candy at this point on the ECM....given the late winter tendencies EVERY year...I see this being an explosive storm....naturally cutting it in to the MW like the GFS....not like an early JAN set up like the ECM


never know though...every once in a while, something like March 2008 happens around here laugh.gif laugh.gif
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RobB
post Feb 22 2012, 04:19 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Feb 22 2012, 02:35 PM) *
eye candy at this point on the ECM....given the late winter tendencies EVERY year...I see this being an explosive storm....naturally cutting it in to the MW like the GFS....not like an early JAN set up like the ECM


Yep....Day 7 snows in the OV?? Never seen that before from the Euro rolleyes.gif
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Juniorrr
post Feb 22 2012, 04:26 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Feb 22 2012, 04:19 PM) *
Yep....Day 7 snows in the OV?? Never seen that before from the Euro rolleyes.gif

Yea no surprise the Euro shows snow for OV this far out. That just means trouble..
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Juniorrr
post Feb 22 2012, 05:39 PM
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18z GFS has a GLC with a way different setup from the 12z GFS so... idk. 160+ hours away.
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