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> Feb 28-Mar 1 SE Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Moderate Risk Forecast & Discussion
31B militaryPoli...
post Feb 25 2012, 04:04 PM
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QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

VALID 281200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WRN CONUS TROUGHING DESCRIBED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK WILL LEAD TO
STG/DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE TRACKING FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS
VALLEY DAY-4/28TH-29TH. MOST CONFIDENT SVR POTENTIAL...INCLUDING
THREAT FOR TORNADOES...IS OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS
OZARKS/MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX REGIONS. STG MID-UPPER WINDS -- I.E.
50-70 KT AT 500 MB -- AND HODOGRAPH-ENLARGING LLJ SHOULD OVERSPREAD
SFC DEW POINTS INCREASING TO 60S F. FARTHER N...PRIND MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE MEAGER INTO AREA NEAR SFC LOW...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT AND WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST MRGL SVR THREAT WITH ANY SUSTAINED/SFC-BASED CONVECTION THAT
CAN FORM. POTENTIAL OVER CORN BELT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL ATTM TO
EXTEND CATEGORICAL AREA THERE.

MIDWEST SYSTEM SHOULD DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AND OUTPACE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN DAY-5/29TH-1ST...THOUGH SVR POTENTIAL IN SRN
APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT REGION AND CAROLINAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
NEXT SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CROSS CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES
DAY-6/1ST-2ND...WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SOME SVR IS POSSIBLE DAYS 6-7/1ST-3RD FROM SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD
LOWER OH VALLEY AS SFC CYCLONE EJECTS FROM HIGH PLAINS...HOWEVER
SPREAD IN VARIOUS MREF/OPERATIONAL PROGS IS TOO LARGE TO ASSIGN
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.


This post has been edited by 31B militaryPolice: Feb 26 2012, 04:10 PM


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31B militaryPoli...
post Feb 25 2012, 04:06 PM
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I have greater concerns with the 2nd system late next week (Mar 2-4). With a potent low-amplitude trough dropping into the Deep South crashing into a warm unstable air-mass across the Mid-South/Dixie Alley tends to lead to trouble across the region.

Even so there is increasing concerns with the first system, 12Z Euro has a large warm sector 60 Tds nosing into the Ohio Valley...Soundings show long clockwise curved hodo signatures with SReH ranging from 400-600 M^2/S^2 out ahead of main convective line, which supports discrete activity.


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31B militaryPoli...
post Feb 25 2012, 05:34 PM
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BMX:

QUOTE
TWO SYSTEMS OF INTEREST AFFECT CENTRAL
ALABAMA...ONE WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER ONE FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT RETURNING TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA EARLY TUESDAY AS WE ENTER THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FIRST
SYSTEM. IT LOOKS AS IF PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE...
GOOD LOW LEVEL JET...MARGINAL HELICITY...AND BULK SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES OCCLUDED NORTH. WILL KEEP LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCE OF TORNADO IN THE HWO WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS DO
NOT HAVE A CONSENSUS ON THREAT OR COVERAGE AREA YET...BUT TIMING IS
CLOSE. BUT POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED.

THE SECOND SYSTEM HAS THE JET STREAM PHASING A BIT DIFFERENT
RESULTING IN THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AND
STRENGTHS. BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE A HINT AT A SURFACE WAVE MUCH CLOSER
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THERE APPEARS TO BE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...A
LOW LEVEL JET...AND A BIT MORE HELICITY. REALLY DO NOT LIKE TO BANK
ON THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THIS FAR OUT AS WELL AS TIMING...BUT
THE PATTERN FAVORS WATCHING THINGS CLOSELY THIS PERIOD. WILL ALSO
KEEP MENTION OF LOW CONFIDENCE TORNADOES IN THE HWO FOR FRIDAY. STAY
TUNED.


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31B militaryPoli...
post Feb 25 2012, 06:53 PM
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Quick look at 18Z GFS sounding for KFFC (only one I have atm). I'm seeing a better hydrolapse, rapid change of moisture with height, than with previous runs which has contributed to better instability shown with SBCAPE approaching 1000 J/KG and LI falling to -4. Wind profiles unidirectional in nature when instability is maximized. With 6KM bulk shear 50-65KTs, and 0-6KM helicity 35-40 M/S or 250-350 M2/S2 supporting potential for damaging winds.


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31B militaryPoli...
post Feb 26 2012, 09:19 PM
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Starting to get a concerning feeling with the 2nd system late next week (still almost a week out so changes will be made). Just these low amplitude troughs moving through a unstable air mass more often than not leads to trouble for Dixie into the Deep South. Moisture will be there with help with this topic's system pulling more moisture northward. LLJs at 850-925MB are screaming and hodographs are ridiculous, especially overnight for some areas....Too early to raise the alarm, but if 0Z models come in similar to 18Z GFS/GFS Ensembles and Euro a couple runs ago I'd expect an outlined risk from SPC tonight.


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31B militaryPoli...
post Feb 27 2012, 12:22 AM
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0Z GFS continues to show quite an ominous system later this week. Rapidly deepening SLP tracking at 998MB over Kansas to 980MB over Michigan in a 12 hour time span! Instability isn't going to be problem with 60 Tds nosing into S IL and 65+ Tds moving into E AR/ N MS/ and W AL....CAPE shown as 1000+ J/KG with LI's in the -4 to -8 range, keep in mind still 5 days out...


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31B militaryPoli...
post Feb 27 2012, 01:51 AM
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0Z Euro is absolutely insane!

I fully expect SPC to have an outlined Day 4-8 risk, and once that comes out a thread can be created for that event.


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snowrawrsnow
post Feb 27 2012, 01:28 PM
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QUOTE(31B militaryPolice @ Feb 27 2012, 01:51 AM) *
0Z Euro is absolutely insane!

I fully expect SPC to have an outlined Day 4-8 risk, and once that comes out a thread can be created for that event.


How insane?


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31B militaryPoli...
post Feb 27 2012, 02:02 PM
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QUOTE(snowrawrsnow @ Feb 27 2012, 01:28 PM) *
How insane?


Significant SFC Cyclogenesis over the Central Plains stronger than the OP GFS so far. Instability isn't a problem, models showing a WSW flow in the mid-levels indicating an EML over the warm sector. Strong LLJ...

12Z EURO is just as bad, if not worse than 0Z run... blink.gif


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31B militaryPoli...
post Feb 27 2012, 02:40 PM
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SPC Day 2:



QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CST MON FEB 27 2012

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH ALONG WRN U.S. COAST WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TUESDAY.
ATTENDANT UPPER JET WILL EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. IN
RESPONSE A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND DEVELOP EWD THROUGH NEB
BEFORE OCCLUDING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY SWWD
THROUGH NERN TX TO NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SYNOPTIC
WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION.

...SRN NEB THROUGH NRN/CNTRL KS...

DEVELOPING STRONG LLJ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE
WILL RESULT IN NWD TRANSPORT OF LOW 50S DEWPOINTS INTO THE KS AND
NEB PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. CONCURRENTLY...ZONE OF STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COLD AIR ALOFT NORTH OF UPPER JET WILL ADVECT
EWD ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION. A BROAD
ZONE OF STRATUS RESULTING FROM RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
ADVECTING NWD AND BEING ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED ABOVE A SHALLOW LAYER
OF COOLER AIR ALONG WRN EXTENT OF RETREATING SFC RIDGE COULD DELAY
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER AT LEAST A NARROW ZONE
OF DIABATIC WARMING IS EXPECTED AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT FROM THE WEST.
THESE PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN 300-500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER PORTIONS OF
SRN NEB INTO NRN KS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ZONE OF
FORCING NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND DEVELOP SWD INTO KS ALONG THE FRONT OR
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONES. INTERSECTING UPPER AND LOWER JETS
WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. THE STORMS WILL BE LOWER
TOPPED...BUT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.


...ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
WRN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY...

POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS IN THIS REGION INCLUDE QUALITY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
CAPPING INVERSION. IT IS LIKELY THAT STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WIDESPREAD WITHIN ZONE OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ABOVE RETREATING SFC RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AT EML
BASE ABOVE THE CLOUDY BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE THESE PROCESSES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE
LIKELY...THEY MAY RESULT IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR SFC BASED
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM ERN OK NERN TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WITHIN A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER
RECOVERY SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY COULD REMAIN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. BEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE OVERNIGHT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF
TN VALLEY WHERE A MORE PERSISTENT INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY RICHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. GIVEN LARGE HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE LLJ AND
FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WITH ANY SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. OTHER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL/ERN OK INTO
NERN TX WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

..DIAL.. 02/27/2012


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31B militaryPoli...
post Feb 27 2012, 02:42 PM
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SPC Day 3:

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST MON FEB 27 2012

VALID 291200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OH VALLEY STATES TO
NRN MS/NRN AL/NRN GA/CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE ACROSS NRN/WRN CONUS
THROUGH PERIOD. LEADING STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND EMBEDDED 500-MB
LOW...ARE FCST TO MOVE FROM MN/IA BORDER REGION EWD ACROSS LOWER MI
AND LE TO SERN ONT...WRN NY...WRN PA AND WV BY END OF PERIOD. SFC
AND MIDLEVEL LOWS WILL BE NEARLY COLLOCATED...THOUGH
OCCLUSION/TRIPLE-POINT LOW SHOULD FORM OVER OR JUST OFFSHORE NJ
DURING 1/06-1/12Z TIME FRAME. SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE UP OH
VALLEY AND EWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TRAILING
SEGMENT MORE SLOWLY CROSSES PORTIONS MS/AL/NRN LA AND SE TX. SVR
POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN OUTLINED
AREA. SWRN-MOST PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE AND STALL
OVER S TX LATE IN PERIOD...AS WAA REGIME INTENSIFIES ACROSS PLAINS
STATES IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER PERTURBATION.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BERING SEA ATTM SHOULD COMBINE WITH UPSTREAM
SPEED MAX AND AMPLIFY...WHILE MOVING SEWD ACROSS NERN PAC AND INTO
PAC NW DAYS 1-2. BY START OF DAY-3 PERIOD...EXPECT SYNOPTIC-SCALE
TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER WRN CONUS...BRACKETED BY BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING ALMOST ALL OF CONUS W OF 100W. LEE TROUGHING
WILL OCCUR OVER SRN...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THIS REGIME SHOULD BE TOO SCANT TO SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL
UNTIL AFTER PERIOD.

...OH VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND AL...
BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN PERIOD OVER WRN
PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA...AND SHOULD INTENSIFY/REORGANIZE DURING DAY
AS FOREGOING AIR MASS DESTABILIZES. MAIN SVR MODE SHOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES AND MRGL-SVR HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE.

BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS FCST TO DESTABILIZE DIURNALLY AHEAD OF
FRONT...FROM OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION TO PORTIONS
LA/MS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE MRGL...PRIND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT PREFRONTAL CORRIDOR
OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM NRN PORTIONS MS/AL AT LEAST AS FAR NE
AS CENTRAL/SRN OH. ALTHOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE LACKING...STG
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WILL LENGTHEN HODOGRAPHS AND CONTRIBUTE
TO FAVORABLE SRH FOR QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE CIRCULATIONS AND/OR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT TOWARD GULF
COAST...DESPITE GREATER SFC DEW POINTS. WITH UPPER PERTURBATION AND
RELATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING MOVING AWAY WELL NE OF LOWER DELTA
REGION...SFC FLOW WILL VEER/WEAKEN WITH TIME...REDUCING BOTH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND VERTICAL SHEAR.

...CAROLINAS/OVERNIGHT...
SECONDARY RELATIVE MAX IN SVR POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR AFTER DARK ACROSS
SRN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN REGION...MAINLY OVER CAROLINAS. THIS MAY
TAKE FORM OF NEW DEVELOPMENT OR CONTINUATION OF ACTIVITY FROM NRN
PORTIONS GA/AL. MAIN UNCERTAINTY ATTM...ESPECIALLY WITH NEWD EXTENT
OVER CAROLINAS...WILL BE HOW MUCH EROSION OF SHALLOW/STABLE LAYER
NEAR SFC WILL TAKE PLACE AND PERMIT DAMAGING GUSTS TO REACH SFC.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SFC-BASED PARCELS ARE
POSSIBLE....SO WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL-CRITERIA PROBABILITIES IN
DEFERENCE TO INTENSITY OF WIND FIELDS AND LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST
MRGLLY FAVORABLE MOISTURE AT AND JUST ABOVE SFC. SRN FRINGE OF
MID-UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WITH GREAT-LAKES CYCLONE WILL BRUSH ACROSS
THIS AREA DURING 1/03Z-1/09Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL OVERLAP SOME
PERIOD OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR BEFORE
PREFRONTAL SFC FLOW VEERS UNFAVORABLY IN RESPONSE TO
TRIPLE-POINT/MID-ATLANTIC SFC CYCLOGENESIS.

..EDWARDS.. 02/27/2012


This post has been edited by 31B militaryPolice: Feb 27 2012, 02:43 PM


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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 28 2012, 09:49 AM
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLNS E/NE INTO THE OZARKS AND LWR OH/LWR TN VLYS...
...SRN PLNS INTO OZARKS AND LWR OH/TN VLYS TODAY/TNGT...
EML ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK SHOULD KEEP
ENVIRONMENT CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER WRN PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLNS. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF LOW LVL UPLIFT ALONG
MERGING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE...SFC HEATING...AND 30-60 M HEIGHT FALLS
ON SRN FRINGE OF EJECTING UPR TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO WDLY
SCTD TSTMS FROM NW TX NNEWD INTO WRN OK AND CNTRL KS BY EARLY EVE.
OTHER STORMS SHOULD FORM A BIT LATER THIS EVE FARTHER E AND
NE...ALONG WRN FRINGE OF STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ/MOISTURE AXIS FROM
N CNTRL/NE TX THROUGH THE ERN THIRD OF OK INTO PARTS OF AR AND
SRN/CNTRL MO. DEVELOPMENT IN THE OZARKS WILL BE FOSTERED BY UPLIFT
ALONG WARM FRONT.

STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING DEEP
WIND FIELD WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG SUPERCELLS GIVEN 60-90 KT
SWLY 0-6 KM SHEAR. INITIALLY...STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE...WHERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE GREATER SVR THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP TNGT
THROUGH EARLY WED AS STORM COVERAGE RAPIDLY INCREASES OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO AR/SRN MO INVOF THE LLJ. LOW LVL
SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WARM FRONT...WHERE AN ELONGATED...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY POSE A SIZABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DMGG
WIND...GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 300-400 M2/S2...AND MLCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THIS THREAT LIKELY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP ENE
INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS EARLY WED AS THE LLJ JET DEVELOPS
RAPIDLY NEWD.



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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 28 2012, 10:07 AM
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AY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

VALID 291200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MS/AL TO OH VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE AND RATHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST
THROUGH PERIOD. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NV AND
SRN CA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EMBEDDED/CLOSED 500-MB LOW DAY-1.
THIS LOW WILL REACH SRN MN BY START OF DAY-2 PERIOD...MOVING EWD
ACROSS LOWER MI AND LH TO SRN ONT BY 1/12Z. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER AK AND GULF OF AK -- WILL PHASE WITH SPEED MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH PERTURBATION NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. COMBINED SYSTEM SHOULD AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES SEWD
DAY-1...RESULTING IN STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER PAC NW COAST AROUND
29/12Z. NWRN TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER THROUGH
DAY-2...YIELDING BOTH UPPER LOW OVER SERN AB/SWRN SK...AND BROADLY
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MOST OF CONUS W OF 100W.

AT SFC...CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STACKED WITH RESPECT TO
MIDLEVEL LOW THROUGH PERIOD. SECONDARY LOW SHOULD DEVELOP AT
FRONTAL/OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT DURING 1/00Z-1/06Z TIME FRAME...OVER
OR JUST OFFSHORE NJ COAST...AND MOVE EWD ALONG WARM FRONT. AT
29/12Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN IL SSWWD ACROSS SERN MO
AND NERN THROUGH CENTRAL TX...WITH WARM FRONT FROM NRN IL ESEWD
ACROSS OH AND WV. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS OH/WV AND
PORTIONS PA BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD MOVE
SEWD TO VA...NRN AL...CENTRAL MS AND SE TX BY END OF PERIOD. SWRN
SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL DECELERATE/WEAKEN OVER MS/LA/TX LATE IN
PERIOD.

...MS/AL TO OH VALLEY...
SOME SVR POTENTIAL MAY CARRY OVER FROM LATE DAY-1 PERIOD IN FORM OF
BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS OVER AR...SERN MO AND LOWER OH VALLEY. SWWD
EXTENT OF BACKBUILDING OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS LA AND PERHAPS SE TX
REMAINS UNCERTAIN DURING DAY...GIVEN DEPARTURE OF MOST FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER LIFT WELL NE OF AREA.

SVR POTENTIAL...MAINLY DAMAGING WIND BUT WITH TORNADOES
POSSIBLE...SHOULD RAMP UP DURING MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS FROM OH TO
MS/AL. THERE...STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON AIR MASS DESTABILIZED BY COMBINATION OF
DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND THETAE ADVECTION. SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER
50S F SHOULD REACH PORTIONS OH/PA/WRN WV...WITH 60S FROM CENTRAL/ERN
KY SWWD ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL OFFSET MODEST MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD WEAK CINH...BENEATH ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE...IN PREFRONTAL CORRIDOR THAT GRADUALLY BROADENS WITH SWD
EXTENT. VERY STG DEEP-LAYER WINDS ARE FCST...YIELDING EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES 60-75 KT IN MANY FCST SOUNDINGS...DESPITE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. PREDOMINANT QUASI-LINEAR MODE IS
EXPECTED. OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS SVR THREAT WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME
DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...FROM N-S...AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR. EXCEPTION MAY BE AROUND
SRN RIM OF APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT...OVER AL/GA INTO CAROLINAS...WHERE
BROADER AREA OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL PERSIST...TRANSITIONING INTO
OVERNIGHT THREAT.

...OVERNIGHT HOURS...CAROLINAS...
CONVECTION MAY MOVE ENEWD INTO THIS REGION FROM SRN PART OF PREVIOUS
REGIME...OR DEVELOP ANEW...AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOBE OF
NOCTURNAL SVR POTENTIAL...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS THIS AREA...AS WILL ENHANCED MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT GRADIENT AND RESULTANT 55-65 KT 500-MB WINDS. VEERING
RELATED TO MID-ATLC LOW GENESIS WILL RENDER DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING GREATEST CONVECTIVE THREAT...BUT ALSO
CHARACTERIZED BY STG SPEED SHEAR THAT WILL ELONGATE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DEPTH/MAGNITUDE OF NEAR-SFC
STABLE LAYER...WHOSE SLOPE AND DEPTH EACH SHOULD BECOME MORE SHALLOW
WITH TIME AMIDST STG LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS EVEN WITH SHALLOW SKIN
LAYER OF COOLING...THROUGH WHICH DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PENETRATE.

This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Feb 28 2012, 10:07 AM


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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 28 2012, 02:30 PM
Post #14




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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 29 2012, 09:37 AM
Post #15




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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 29 2012, 09:37 AM
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

VALID 291300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN VLY AND SRN
APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY AND VA/NC...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG NW IA UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE ENE TO CNTRL WI THIS EVE...BEFORE
SHEARING E TO THE LWR GRT LKS EARLY THU. ATTENDANT VORT LOBE
LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT SQLN/SUPERCELLS NOW IN THE LWR OH
VLY SHOULD CONTINUE NNE INTO MI AND WEAKEN...WHILE UPSTREAM VORT
LOBE NOW OVER ERN NEB SWEEPS ESE INTO IND/KY LATER TODAY...AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC CST THU MORNING.

AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IA UPR LOW EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE ESE INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS LATER TODAY AS UPSTREAM
VORT LOBE CONTINUES ESEWD. FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY NE/SW
SQLN/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY OVERNIGHT STORMS...AND THIS LATTER
FEATURE LIKELY WILL SERVE AS THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY FOR LOW LVL
UPLIFT/TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TODAY. FARTHER NE...DIFFUSE WARM
FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE NEWD ACROSS OH...THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND
VA/SRN MD...WITH A SECONDARY SFC WAVE POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THU NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

...LWR MS VLY NEWD THROUGH TN VLY INTO MID OH VLY/CAROLINAS...
NE/SE SQLN WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...NOW EXTENDING FROM SRN IND TO
NRN AR...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THIS MORNING. GIVEN
RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF SQLN /ASSOCIATED WITH 50-60 KT
SWLY LLJ/...AND STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SE FRINGE OF
IA UPR LOW /500 MB WSW FLOW AOA 70 KTS/...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE
FOR MAINTENANCE OF EXISTING SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR
TORNADOES/DMGG WIND.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AT LITTLE ROCK AND NASHVILLE SUGGEST THAT ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUPPORT REJUVENATION OF EXISTING SQLN STORMS IN
KY AND NRN TN...AND POSSIBLY NEW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORMS.

SATELLITE DERIVED /GPS PW DATA...AND OBSERVED SFC DEWPOINTS...
SUGGEST THAT DEEPLY MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER
THE TN VLY. COUPLED WITH STRONG TO INTENSE LOW TO MID LVL WIND
FIELD...AND THE GRAZING INFLUENCE OF UPSTREAM VORT LOBE THIS
AFTN...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF
SUPERCELLS FROM NRN MS ENEWD TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME LONG-LIVED AND
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/...AND
SWATHS OF DMGG WIND.

THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN QUASI-LINEAR MCS LATER THIS
AFTN AND TNGT. PART OF THE THIS SYSTEM MAY MOVE/DEVELOP E TO
VICINITY OF WARM FRONT IN SRN VA/NC...POSING AN OVERNIGHT SVR RISK
/INCLUDING ISOLD TORNADOES/ IN THAT REGION. THE OTHER PART OF THE
MCS MAY TEND TO BACK-BUILD AND/OR DEVELOP MORE SWD INTO NRN
AL/GA...WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
EARLY THU.

FINALLY...N OF THE OH VLY SQLN...APPROACH OF UPSTREAM VORT LOBE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS...POSSIBLY SVR...THIS
AFTN/EARLY TNGT IN ERN IND AND OH/WRN PA.


This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Feb 29 2012, 09:47 AM


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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 29 2012, 09:43 AM
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SWRN-SRN OH/FAR N CENTRAL-NERN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 46...47...

VALID 291338Z - 291445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 46...47...CONTINUES.

ONGOING NE-SW SQLN OVER SRN IND TO CENTRAL/SWRN KY WILL ADVANCE EWD
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

AIR MASS HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO
MORNING PERIOD INTO FAR SWRN-SRN OH WITH MUCAPE EXCEEDING 500 J/KG.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS STRONG
WSWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE OH VALLEY ATOP
STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. KILN WSR-88D VAD DATA INDICATED VEERING
LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH VERY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC WINDS RESULTING IN
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR STRENGTHENING IN EXCESS OF 60 KT...SFC-1 KM
SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KT...AND 0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 600 M2/S2. THESE
KINEMATICS COMBINED WITH FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL
ALLOW FOR THE EWD MAINTENANCE OF THE ONGOING LINE OF SEVERE STORMS
NOW EXTENDING FROM SERN IND TO WRN KY AND NRN AR.


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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 29 2012, 09:44 AM
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/PART OF WRN TN/FAR SERN MO AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 44...45...

VALID 291407Z - 291500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 44...45...CONTINUES.

WW 44 WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
LOCALLY IN TIME TO 16 OR 17Z. AN ONGOING STRONG-SEVERE STORM OVER
FULTON COUNTY KY/OBION COUNTY TN IS TRACKING ENE AND WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SERN PART OF WW 44 BETWEEN 15-1630Z.

AT 14Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THE WRN EXTENT
OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS EXTENDED FROM WRN KY SWWD INTO NERN AR....WITH
ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG/...BUT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /50-70 KT/ AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-500 M2 PER S2/ CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BOWING SEGMENTS AND A TORNADO THREAT.


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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 29 2012, 09:49 AM
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PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...ONE OR TWO POSSIBLY STRONG...AND DAMAGING
WIND OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHERN GEORGIA
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MUCH OF TENNESSEE

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN CAROLINAS

A BAND OF VERY FAST LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY...IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER IOWA.

VERY WARM AND UNSEASONABLY HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD AT LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AHEAD OF
AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND DISTURBANCE ATTENDANT TO THE IOWA
LOW.

AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS TODAY...AND AS A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE IOWA LOW APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION...THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING FROM THE OVERNIGHT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK IN MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...AND ILLINOIS MAY INTENSIFY OVER
PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND WEST TENNESSEE. A BIT LATER IN THE
DAY...OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.

THE COMBINATION OF UNUSUALLY WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS MAY FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LONG-LIVED ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG...AND SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND.


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jdrenken
post Feb 29 2012, 10:15 AM
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If you see me listed, there's a good chance that I'm not actually looking at the forum and just left it open while performing my regular job. Everyone stay safe out there!


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