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> March 5-6 MidATL/NE "WINTER STORM",, Reality: Short Range [0-4 days]
Undertakerson
post Feb 29 2012, 04:27 AM
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I've decided to pull the trigger on opening a thread for this potential post frontal development (I resisted the urge to pull the plug on winter altogether but it was very tempting). The temps all seem plenty cold for a majority of our regions. Depending on the track, I expect my region ends up in the typical "east of the Apps, screw zone" as the drying effect of downsloping causes the usual concern- but that's really just one models portrayal (H7 Rh charts suggest a not too wet event regardless)

A peep at the most recent Op runs (all from 0z run and images from EWall)

GFS:
Attached Image


Euro:
Attached Image


CMC:
Attached Image


The Ukie (2 panel)

Attached Image


All models are in fairly good agreement for this range and that is a mild surprise. But given that the mean flow has finally consolidated to a great degree, the solutions spit out would tend to be less spread. Temps likely won't be an issue - not with a Canadian HP sitting where the models place it in eastern Canada.

So here's to hoping to see the just emerging Crocus and Daffodils wear a white cap for the beginning week of Meteorological Spring.





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There are 2 types of people in this world. 1) Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 29 2012, 06:26 AM
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AFDCTP - updated at 5:55. First mention of this potential in CPA

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

QUOTE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A RETURN TO LATE WINTER WX...AS UPPER
TROF MOVES OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ARND BASE
OF THIS TROF WILL BRING THE CHC OF SNOW SHWRS /MAINLY W MTNS/ IN
THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME. 00Z OPER GFS APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER...DEVELOPING A STRONGER CLIPPER LOW AND SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE SUN
. HOWEVER...BULK OF
ENSEMBLE AND OPER RUNS POINT TOWARD THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF A
WEAKER SFC LOW AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CONFINED TO THE ALLEGHENIES.

UPPER TROF QUICKLY LIFTS OUT TUE/WED...BRINGING A RETURN TO FAIR
AND MILDER WX. MON NITE COULD BE QUITE COLD HOWEVER...AS SFC HIGH
PASSES DIRECTLY OVER PA...PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


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Noreastericane
post Feb 29 2012, 09:07 AM
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0z GFS brought back the clipper and gives an inch to southern PA and the Baltimore/DC metro area, with a few inches to western MD, WV, and SW PA. 6z GFS got rid of it again. GFS runs alternate between the map I just described and nothing at all. We'll see. Hoping we can pull out just a tiny bit of snow from this.


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Undertakerson
post Feb 29 2012, 12:49 PM
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12GFS brings back the decent southern MidAtl event via the clipper.

Attached Image


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

CMC makes even more of it - very much a coastal looking event.
Attached Image


Attached Image


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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 29 2012, 02:59 PM
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Also noticed that HM commented on ti potential today during his morning Blog
Margusity's blog
Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 
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MP - Bucks Co PA
post Feb 29 2012, 03:05 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 29 2012, 02:59 PM) *
Also noticed that HM commented on ti potential today during his morning Blog
Margusity's blog


Oh jeez Fire/Rescue the event is cursed now for sure....
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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 29 2012, 03:57 PM
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Really not buying that crazy CMC solution... trough is far from ideal, little to no blocking, no negative tilt, and a progressive pattern preparing to torch the region once this trough moves out. Having some sort of a weak clipper associated with the trough move through is a much more likely scenario IMO, but still it's far from an instant snow call as the air mass isn't very cold and the boundary layer, with the absence of heavy precipitation, will more than likely be very marginal. At most, I'm thinking at this time that this would be a light snow producer for parts of the Mid Atlantic, especially inland, with rain further east.


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SnowMan11
post Feb 29 2012, 04:12 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Feb 29 2012, 03:57 PM) *
Really not buying that crazy CMC solution... trough is far from ideal, little to no blocking, no negative tilt, and a progressive pattern preparing to torch the region once this trough moves out. Having some sort of a weak clipper associated with the trough move through is a much more likely scenario IMO, but still it's far from an instant snow call as the air mass isn't very cold and the boundary layer, with the absence of heavy precipitation, will more than likely be very marginal. At most, I'm thinking at this time that this would be a light snow producer for parts of the Mid Atlantic, especially inland, with rain further east.


The cold air wouldn't be an issue with this storm and I could see the GGEM verify if the clipper digs far enough south but I don't think that's likely.


--------------------
Winter of 2014-2015

Snowfall Totals

11/26/14 - 0.10 ( snow/sleet/rain )

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grandpaboy
post Feb 29 2012, 04:17 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 29 2012, 04:12 PM) *
The cold air wouldn't be an issue with this storm and I could see the GGEM verify if the clipper digs far enough south but I don't think that's likely.



Now your catching on SM.......... wink.gif


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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Undertakerson
post Feb 29 2012, 05:20 PM
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18z GFS (which you all know I generally disdain) holds serve and then some, popping a SLP at DelMarVa

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Feb 29 2012, 05:22 PM


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SnowMan11
post Feb 29 2012, 05:20 PM
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Clipper is closer to the coast on the 18z GFS. Cold enough along the coast.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...amp;imageSize=M


--------------------
Winter of 2014-2015

Snowfall Totals

11/26/14 - 0.10 ( snow/sleet/rain )

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Mike W IN herkim...
post Feb 29 2012, 05:24 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 29 2012, 05:20 PM) *
Clipper is closer to the coast on the 18z GFS. Cold enough along the coast.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...amp;imageSize=M

Gfs looks pretty cold, but nws has 45 here in freehold with showers sad.gif


--------------------
western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.8"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"
2014 - 2015: 0.00"
[/size][/color]

[img]http://www.wunderground.com/swf/Rapid_Fire.swf?units=metric&station=KNJFREEH10.gif[img]
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SnowMan11
post Feb 29 2012, 05:23 PM
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H5 looks alright on the GFS

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...amp;imageSize=M


--------------------
Winter of 2014-2015

Snowfall Totals

11/26/14 - 0.10 ( snow/sleet/rain )

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Noreastericane
post Feb 29 2012, 05:56 PM
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18z is looking good. I told you all I been interested in this time period for quite awhile. Keep the faith. smile.gif


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Removed_Member_Snowrider_*
post Feb 29 2012, 06:05 PM
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I have no more Faith lol in this so called winter season. However, my local NBC Met, who happens to be quite good, does mention this in his long range outlook, he says "that a storm may be nearby for this time frame, and that snow flurries are possible and this needs to be monitored." I did find that a little interesting, but like I said I am not very optimistic at all for anything.

Snowrider.
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NorEaster07
post Feb 29 2012, 06:47 PM
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I can hear the "West" chants now.


Attached Image



Attached Image



--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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let it dnow
post Feb 29 2012, 06:59 PM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Feb 29 2012, 04:17 PM) *
Now your catching on SM.......... wink.gif





not not go off topic but what a GLC ?


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Let it snow.
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stilko4
post Feb 29 2012, 07:02 PM
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i call bs for snow on long island (the snowless capital of the northeast this year)
wait 10 months and we might see some snow


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 29 2012, 07:29 PM
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QUOTE(let it dnow @ Feb 29 2012, 06:59 PM) *
not not go off topic but what a GLC ?

Great Lakes Cutter, or a storm that tracks through the Great Lakes - in other words, what we'll be seeing on Saturday before a colder air mass comes through and this rain/snow clipper potential takes place.


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grandpaboy
post Feb 29 2012, 08:06 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 29 2012, 06:47 PM) *
I can hear the "West" chants now.


Attached Image



Attached Image



I can also hear this in a day and a half...........


"epic fail of the models again"............ laugh.gif


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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