March 5-6 MidATL/NE "WINTER STORM",, Reality: Short Range [0-4 days] Options

[Undertakerson]

I've decided to pull the trigger on opening a thread for this potential post frontal development (I resisted the urge to pull the plug on winter altogether but it was very tempting). The temps all seem plenty cold for a majority of our regions. Depending on the track, I expect my region ends up in the typical "east of the Apps, screw zone" as the drying effect of downsloping causes the usual concern- but that's really just one models portrayal (H7 Rh charts suggest a not too wet event regardless)

A peep at the most recent Op runs (all from 0z run and images from EWall)

GFS:


Euro:


CMC:


The Ukie (2 panel)



All models are in fairly good agreement for this range and that is a mild surprise. But given that the mean flow has finally consolidated to a great degree, the solutions spit out would tend to be less spread. Temps likely won't be an issue - not with a Canadian HP sitting where the models place it in eastern Canada.

So here's to hoping to see the just emerging Crocus and Daffodils wear a white cap for the beginning week of Meteorological Spring.

[Undertakerson]

AFDCTP - updated at 5:55. First mention of this potential in CPA

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A RETURN TO LATE WINTER WX...AS UPPER
TROF MOVES OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ARND BASE
OF THIS TROF WILL BRING THE CHC OF SNOW SHWRS /MAINLY W MTNS/ IN
THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME. 00Z OPER GFS APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER...DEVELOPING A STRONGER CLIPPER LOW AND SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE SUN. HOWEVER...BULK OF
ENSEMBLE AND OPER RUNS POINT TOWARD THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF A
WEAKER SFC LOW AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CONFINED TO THE ALLEGHENIES.

UPPER TROF QUICKLY LIFTS OUT TUE/WED...BRINGING A RETURN TO FAIR
AND MILDER WX. MON NITE COULD BE QUITE COLD HOWEVER...AS SFC HIGH
PASSES DIRECTLY OVER PA...PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

[Noreastericane]

0z GFS brought back the clipper and gives an inch to southern PA and the Baltimore/DC metro area, with a few inches to western MD, WV, and SW PA. 6z GFS got rid of it again. GFS runs alternate between the map I just described and nothing at all. We'll see. Hoping we can pull out just a tiny bit of snow from this.

[Undertakerson]

12GFS brings back the decent southern MidAtl event via the clipper.



http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

CMC makes even more of it - very much a coastal looking event.

[Fire/Rescue]

Also noticed that HM commented on ti potential today during his morning Blog
Margusity's blog

Attached image(s)

 

[MP - Bucks Co PA]

Also noticed that HM commented on ti potential today during his morning Blog
Margusity's blog

Oh jeez Fire/Rescue the event is cursed now for sure....

[NYCSuburbs]

Really not buying that crazy CMC solution... trough is far from ideal, little to no blocking, no negative tilt, and a progressive pattern preparing to torch the region once this trough moves out. Having some sort of a weak clipper associated with the trough move through is a much more likely scenario IMO, but still it's far from an instant snow call as the air mass isn't very cold and the boundary layer, with the absence of heavy precipitation, will more than likely be very marginal. At most, I'm thinking at this time that this would be a light snow producer for parts of the Mid Atlantic, especially inland, with rain further east.

[SnowMan11]

Really not buying that crazy CMC solution... trough is far from ideal, little to no blocking, no negative tilt, and a progressive pattern preparing to torch the region once this trough moves out. Having some sort of a weak clipper associated with the trough move through is a much more likely scenario IMO, but still it's far from an instant snow call as the air mass isn't very cold and the boundary layer, with the absence of heavy precipitation, will more than likely be very marginal. At most, I'm thinking at this time that this would be a light snow producer for parts of the Mid Atlantic, especially inland, with rain further east.

The cold air wouldn't be an issue with this storm and I could see the GGEM verify if the clipper digs far enough south but I don't think that's likely.

[grandpaboy]

The cold air wouldn't be an issue with this storm and I could see the GGEM verify if the clipper digs far enough south but I don't think that's likely.

Now your catching on SM..........

[Undertakerson]

18z GFS (which you all know I generally disdain) holds serve and then some, popping a SLP at DelMarVa







This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Feb 29 2012, 05:22 PM

[SnowMan11]

Clipper is closer to the coast on the 18z GFS. Cold enough along the coast.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...amp;imageSize=M

[Mike W IN herkim...]

Clipper is closer to the coast on the 18z GFS. Cold enough along the coast.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...amp;imageSize=M

Gfs looks pretty cold, but nws has 45 here in freehold with showers

[SnowMan11]

H5 looks alright on the GFS

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...amp;imageSize=M

[Noreastericane]

18z is looking good. I told you all I been interested in this time period for quite awhile. Keep the faith.

[Removed_Member_Snowrider_*]

I have no more Faith lol in this so called winter season. However, my local NBC Met, who happens to be quite good, does mention this in his long range outlook, he says "that a storm may be nearby for this time frame, and that snow flurries are possible and this needs to be monitored." I did find that a little interesting, but like I said I am not very optimistic at all for anything.

Snowrider.

[NorEaster07]

I can hear the "West" chants now.

[let it dnow]

Now your catching on SM..........

not not go off topic but what a GLC ?

[stilko4]

i call bs for snow on long island (the snowless capital of the northeast this year)
wait 10 months and we might see some snow

[NYCSuburbs]

not not go off topic but what a GLC ?

Great Lakes Cutter, or a storm that tracks through the Great Lakes - in other words, what we'll be seeing on Saturday before a colder air mass comes through and this rain/snow clipper potential takes place.

[grandpaboy]

I can hear the "West" chants now.

I can also hear this in a day and a half...........


"epic fail of the models again"............