Feb. 29-Mar. 1 West Storm Observations, Observations and last minute forecasts Options

[idecline]

A Large powerful low pressure system is winding up just off the Washington State coast. Strong winds are being pushed down the coast as the front drops into California. A vigorous jet stream is diving south and pushing the moisture into Northern California and then into the Sierras. The forecast is for heavy wind and rain from Seattle south to the San Francisco Bay Area, with lesser amounts of rain to the south. The Sierras and Cascades are preparing for snowfall up to 2 or 3 feet by Friday.

Light amounts of precipitation may reach SoCal on Wednesday evening if the trough has as much energy as the satellite is showing. We have had 20-30 mph. (est.) winds for the last hour here in Santa Cruz, and the packet of energy sweeping down behind the front from the GOA looks very moist indeed.

This storm may not suit all of the West water needs but it is a good start to a hopefully wet March.

Besides today is February 29, 2012.....basically a 'free' day when it comes to rain totals...Leap Day!

[Beck]

We may only get up to 0.10" from this storm, so I'm not too concerned about it. Chances of rain here in Temecula are from late tonight through tomorrow morning.

[Jet Developer]

Happy Leap Day everyone. Really, today is a special day and they should make it a holiday. With the years divisible by 100 NOT being leap years unless they are also divisible by 400, we actually have 365.2425 days to one revolution around the Sun.

We are much more likely to set weather records today than any other day as there are about 4 times less days to have already set records. We could easily make some record lows for the day here in California.

Finally, I bring up the infamous question:

What day was it a year ago today?

It was not 2/28/2011 and it was not 3/1/2011, so what day was it? I'd call it an imaginary day, 2/29i/2011.

This post has been edited by Jet Developer: Feb 29 2012, 10:10 AM

[Beck]

Clouds have been steadily increasing over the past few hours.

[Jet Developer]

Clouds have been steadily increasing over the past few hours.

It's the same situation here. It was also another hazy, cool day. Also, there were some major tornadoes in the Midwest. I blame that on La Nina as well.

[Beck]

It's the same situation here. It was also another hazy, cool day. Also, there were some major tornadoes in the Midwest. I blame that on La Nina as well.

Yeah I saw that on the news today, just devastating.

The clouds are more plentiful now than earlier, where they were just clinging to the mountain ranges for most of the day. And I can't tell right now - but it looks like a marine layer is coming in.

[Beck]

Looks like last night's storm fizzled, as no locations in the region recorded any rainfall.

[Jet Developer]

Looks like last night's storm fizzled, as no locations in the region recorded any rainfall.

Those marine layer "storms" tend to do that at this time of year when the inversion is typically weak. Usually you can get more rain out of the marine layer in June than March.

[idecline]

Looks like last night's storm fizzled, as no locations in the region recorded any rainfall.

Those marine layer "storms" tend to do that at this time of year when the inversion is typically weak. Usually you can get more rain out of the marine layer in June than March.

IMBY! Southern California is not all of California or the West>>>

We had two days of showers up here in the Bay Area and the Sierras had up to 4ft. of snow. That is a storm! Storms that reach the LA Basin are more rare but they usually come from the North.

Idee watches everyone's weather because the World is totally interconnected. The patterns that bring rain to SoCal also are dependent upon the flow of the jet stream and location of highs, lows, and the influx of cold air from the North.

Southern California gets almost all of its drinking water from remote locations, in Northern California, and the Sierras. Don't be too geo-centric in your views of the weather, Idee roots for SoCal to get enough rain also, so please appreciate my interest even in storms that don't reach your area...

[Beck]

IMBY! Southern California is not all of California or the West>>>

We had two days of showers up here in the Bay Area and the Sierras had up to 4ft. of snow. That is a storm! Storms that reach the LA Basin are more rare but they usually come from the North.

Idee watches everyone's weather because the World is totally interconnected. The patterns that bring rain to SoCal also are dependent upon the flow of the jet stream and location of highs, lows, and the influx of cold air from the North.

Southern California gets almost all of its drinking water from remote locations, in Northern California, and the Sierras. Don't be too geo-centric in your views of the weather, Idee roots for SoCal to get enough rain also, so please appreciate my interest even in storms that don't reach your area...

Sorry, I only meant that the storm fizzled once it arrived here. Watching the radar, I was well aware of the showers further north. And I've noticed that the majority of Central California (including the Bay Area) has had a well-below average rainy season too - San Jose is at 26% of normal to date. I find that incredibly odd, especially given their location and the fact that they've been effected by more storms this winter than we have, yet we're not doing as bad as they are. SFO and Oakland are under 50% of normal as well, just like L.A.

[idecline]

Sorry, I only meant that the storm fizzled once it arrived here. Watching the radar, I was well aware of the showers further north. And I've noticed that the majority of Central California (including the Bay Area) has had a well-below average rainy season too - San Jose is at 26% of normal to date. I find that incredibly odd, especially given their location and the fact that they've been effected by more storms this winter than we have, yet we're not doing as bad as they are. SFO and Oakland are under 50% of normal as well, just like L.A.

no problem!

San Jose is where I grew up, it is in a big rain shadow of the Santa Cruz Mountains. Near where I live now Ben Lomond gets about 60 inches of rain a year, San Jose a little over 20 inches a year. The orographic lifting of the NW/SE orientated mountains make it hard for storm energy to get over the hills with much moisture left. Especially in La Nina years with these moisture starved mini-lows that get cut off from the main jet. Those inside/outside sliders often give Southern California more rain than Northern California because they finally hit the bottom of the trough and then go inland. San Diego inland areas and the Inland Empire have the problem of bigger mountains to cross and warm dry air bubbling up from the deserts, this takes away much of strength of marginal storms.

If you look at the latest update on the CPC ENSO page it will show warm water influx in the E. Pacific equatorial basin...La Nina is waning and precipitation possibilities are now normal (EC; equal chance) for the coming months. The long term graphics show possible warming all across the equatorial basin by July into September...leading to a possible warm event or at least ENSO-neutral conditions by summer. Next year could be very wet...

CPC ENSO update

[Beck]

no problem!

San Jose is where I grew up, it is in a big rain shadow of the Santa Cruz Mountains. Near where I live now Ben Lomond gets about 60 inches of rain a year, San Jose a little over 20 inches a year. The orographic lifting of the NW/SE orientated mountains make it hard for storm energy to get over the hills with much moisture left. Especially in La Nina years with these moisture starved mini-lows that get cut off from the main jet. Those inside/outside sliders often give Southern California more rain than Northern California because they finally hit the bottom of the trough and then go inland. San Diego inland areas and the Inland Empire have the problem of bigger mountains to cross and warm dry air bubbling up from the deserts, this takes away much of strength of marginal storms.

If you look at the latest update on the CPC ENSO page it will show warm water influx in the E. Pacific equatorial basin...La Nina is waning and precipitation possibilities are now normal (EC; equal chance) for the coming months. The long term graphics show possible warming all across the equatorial basin by July into September...leading to a possible warm event or at least ENSO-neutral conditions by summer. Next year could be very wet...

CPC ENSO update

That's the odd thing down here - you would think that the Santa Ana Mountains would cast a nasty rain shadow over us in the Inland Empire....but it doesn't. I still don't quite know why that is, and I've lived here all my life. In fact, every now and then, they will actually enhance incoming rainfall that's coming off the ocean, and make it heavier for us. Further to the east, the San Jacinto Mountains, which are twice as tall, do cast a rain shadow over the Coachella Valley and help to create what it known as the lower Mojave Desert/upper Sonoran Desert. But back to the Santa Ana Mountains.....the only instance I've ever seen them cast any sort of rain shadow on any region is during the summer - when monsoonal moisture & thunderstorms work their way over here to inland areas from the east, but then they stop at the Santa Ana Mountains, just before reaching the Pacific. The thunderheads literally just end there, like a perfectly symmetrical line in the sky. They won't go past the north-south "main divide" of the Santa Ana Mountains. They certainly can create a big difference in temperatures, though.

And I don't know about next year. I mean (regarding your comment about the possibility of next year being very wet), remember - we thought the same thing in 2006, once the 2005-2006 La Nina was fading and ENSO conditions were beginning to warm up. A very wet winter was expected for SoCal. And we all know how that turned out.....