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> March 10-11 MidATL/NE "WINTER STORM", Possibility:Medium Range [4-7 Days Out Forecast]
paletitsnow63
post Mar 3 2012, 03:03 PM
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Euro showing something for next Saturday. Looks like a strong FROPA with storm on coast at H168.
Other than looking like a decent FROPA I did not think to much of it. But when I looked at the Weatherunderground Wundermap for EURO snowfall it looked very impressive. Here is 12Z EURO H168 off of PSU EWALL:


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paletitsnow63
post Mar 3 2012, 03:05 PM
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12Z EURO snowfall at H156 & H162 off of Weatherunderground Wundermap:





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paletitsnow63
post Mar 3 2012, 03:06 PM
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12Z EURO snowfall at H168 & H174 off of Weatherunderground Wundermap:







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paletitsnow63
post Mar 3 2012, 03:10 PM
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A few 12Z GEFS members at H168:








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telejunkie
post Mar 3 2012, 03:33 PM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 3 2012, 03:05 PM) *
12Z EURO snowfall at H156 & H162 off of Weatherunderground Wundermap:


Not saying it can't happen, but definitely a rare event that has strong snowfall rates being depicted there post-frontal passage other than downwind of the GL or a big orographic event like out west. In the meantime will enjoy the spring warmth and hopefully abundant sap production from maples.


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Winter '13-'14 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/15 - 11"
1/2 - 11"
1/25 - 5"
2/5 - 9"
2/14 - 17"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
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paletitsnow63
post Mar 3 2012, 03:34 PM
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Don't have access to the pro EURO version but doing calculations for snowfall off the key that comes with the Weatherunderground Wundermap looks like:

Rough Estimates

SC / SE PA / N MD 5 - 7"
NE PA thru C & E NY 7 - 10"
Philly 1 - 2"
NYC 2 - 4"


Here is the key that is on the maps I posted earlier from the EURO Wundermap




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paletitsnow63
post Mar 3 2012, 03:38 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Mar 3 2012, 03:33 PM) *
Not saying it can't happen, but definitely a rare event that has strong snowfall rates being depicted there post-frontal passage other than downwind of the GL or a big orographic event like out west. In the meantime will enjoy the spring warmth and hopefully abundant sap production from maples.

Yeah you are probably right. I was looking at the 12Z EURO snowfall to see what happens with the clipper for early next week and since I was bored kept looking at it through the end of the run. It really made me look twice when I saw the snowfall at H144 through H180.

Figured I would try "my luck" at starting a topic since I hadn't all winter. Well, I'll likely be another one who fails when this is gone by tonight's run. laugh.gif
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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 3 2012, 03:39 PM
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Anyone remember January 2-4? The ECM had an hour 168-192 range fantasy big snowstorm back then, it was the only model to show such a solution, and it quickly lost the snowstorm idea - while there will be a storm here, I have high confidence that this ECM solution will not verify.
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RobB
post Mar 3 2012, 04:06 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Mar 3 2012, 03:39 PM) *
Anyone remember January 2-4? The ECM had an hour 168-192 range fantasy big snowstorm back then, it was the only model to show such a solution, and it quickly lost the snowstorm idea - while there will be a storm here, I have high confidence that this ECM solution will not verify.



Agree...Just yesterday the 12z Euro had Dayton in a 6 inch snow area...Laugh worthy....This model has not had a good time at day 7...
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psu1313
post Mar 3 2012, 04:30 PM
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I've seen this story before. What the Euro is doing is phasing another cutoff low with the northern stream energy. Sound familiar to anyone? I'll take the GFS run and slow the cutoff down by 24 hours and I think the solution has a chance at verifying.
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paletitsnow63
post Mar 3 2012, 04:32 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Mar 3 2012, 03:39 PM) *
Anyone remember January 2-4? The ECM had an hour 168-192 range fantasy big snowstorm back then, it was the only model to show such a solution, and it quickly lost the snowstorm idea - while there will be a storm here, I have high confidence that this ECM solution will not verify.

You are correct. The Euro has ben in fantasyland all of this winter especially in the H120 to H168 range. Sometimes as RobB mentioned it has been in fantasyland in the H24 to H48 range.

As I mentioned since I hadn't started a topic all winter so I thought I would take a crack at it and see if I can bring any late season "luck".

So I'll throw some more stuff out there for "luck".

- Next weekend is the 124th anniversary of you know what.
- That year was also a leap year
- That year as this year the 10th was a Saturday, the 11th a Sunday, and 12th a Monday.

See the link below for a really great book that all winter weather enthusiasts whould acquire. I read it a few years ago and went through the 130 pages in less than 2 days.

From Chapter one:
"It had been one of the warmest winters on record in the east. This was especially true of the New York City area, which saw few frosts and little snow".


As I said just trying to have fun here in a very depressing winter. So I'm not trying to say this is the same setup as back then or this will give somebody more than a just few flurries as a FROPA. smile.gif

Here is the link for the book. Focuses entirely on that storm from March 10th to March 14th. It is rated for 5th grade through adult so for all you teens on here up through adults a very great read.

http://www.amazon.com/Blizzard-Storm-That-...0121&sr=1-3
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md_weathernut
post Mar 3 2012, 04:37 PM
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Sweet... if only...


QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 3 2012, 04:32 PM) *
You are correct. The Euro has ben in fantasyland all of this winter especially in the H120 to H168 range. Sometimes as RobB mentioned it has been in fantasyland in the H24 to H48 range.

As I mentioned since I hadn't started a topic all winter so I thought I would take a crack at it and see if I can bring any late season "luck".

So I'll throw some more stuff out there for "luck".

- Next weekend is the 124th anniversary of you know what.
- That year was also a leap year
- That year as this year the 10th was a Saturday, the 11th a Sunday, and 12th a Monday.

See the link below for a really great book that all winter weather enthusiasts whould acquire. I read it a few years ago and went through the 130 pages in less than 2 days.

From Chapter one:
"It had been one of the warmest winters on record in the east. This was especially true of the New York City area, which saw few frosts and little snow".


As I said just trying to have fun here in a very depressing winter. So I'm not trying to say this is the same setup as back then or this will give somebody more than a just few flurries as a FROPA. smile.gif

Here is the link for the book. Focuses entirely on that storm from March 10th to March 14th. It is rated for 5th grade through adult so for all you teens on here up through adults a very great read.

http://www.amazon.com/Blizzard-Storm-That-...0121&sr=1-3

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Niyologist
post Mar 3 2012, 05:01 PM
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QUOTE(md_weathernut @ Mar 3 2012, 04:37 PM) *
Sweet... if only...


If that's referring to The Great Blizzard of 1888, then that part with very little snowfall is completely off, unless if the author is referring to the East Coast. Otherwise, NYC had 23.3" of snow before The Great Blizzard of 1888.


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paletitsnow63
post Mar 3 2012, 05:13 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Mar 3 2012, 05:01 PM) *
If that's referring to The Great Blizzard of 1888, then that part with very little snowfall is completely off, unless if the author is referring to the East Coast. Otherwise, NYC had 23.3" of snow before The Great Blizzard of 1888.

My guess is his reference is to NYC or NYC area. Jim Murphy (the author) was very detailed in the book. Not sure why he said "little snow" that winter if NYC had 23.3". Possibly back in the late 1880s as the world was coming out of The Little Ice Age (approx 1450 to 1850) 23.3" was low standards for NYC. But maybe as you mentioned it was the whole East Coast he was referring to.
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shane o mac
post Mar 3 2012, 05:21 PM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 3 2012, 06:13 PM) *
My guess is his reference is to NYC or NYC area. Jim Murphy (the author) was very detailed in the book. Not sure why he said "little snow" that winter if NYC had 23.3". Possibly back in the late 1880s as the world was coming out of The Little Ice Age (approx 1450 to 1850) 23.3" was low standards for NYC. But maybe as you mentioned it was the whole East Coast he was referring to.

I wonder if there is any books to look back at the weather from canada particular the maritimes and out of curiosity does anybody have the farmers alamanac
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LUCC
post Mar 3 2012, 05:49 PM
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I'll take warm GLC for 600 Alex.


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jdrenken
post Mar 4 2012, 12:10 AM
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Look for model discrepancies regarding late next week until at least the 6th. That's when the particular system hits the PACNW.


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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 4 2012, 12:30 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 4 2012, 12:10 AM) *
Look for model discrepancies regarding late next week until at least the 6th. That's when the particular system hits the PACNW.

I don't think we even need to guess the models are having issues... The 0z GFS looks like it's gone beyond fantasy land with this storm blink.gif laugh.gif

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donutvampire
post Mar 4 2012, 12:45 AM
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GFS fantasy 00z hr 240, Suface Temps arent exactly very good tongue.gif


This post has been edited by donutvampire: Mar 4 2012, 12:47 AM


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kdskidoo
post Mar 4 2012, 07:14 AM
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QUOTE(donutvampire @ Mar 4 2012, 12:45 AM) *
GFS fantasy 00z hr 240, Suface Temps arent exactly very good tongue.gif



surace temps haven't been good all winter. I wouldn't expect them to improve as we head into spring.
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