Mar. 3-5 Plains/MW/OV Clipper OBS, Please Post Last Minute Forecast and OBS Options

[WeatherMonger]

Not sure how to start this as it's set to start before the night is out or might already be? But it gives an outlet for some after yesterday's event. Hopefully JD or another mod can correct anything I've missed



This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Mar 3 2012, 09:39 PM

[WeatherMonger]

Any snow that does fall will be short lived

ILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
211 PM CST SAT MAR 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 155 PM CST SAT MAR 3 2012

TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF SE IL SOME 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. DEEP LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE
CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND AN OCCASIONAL FLURRY TO MAINLY
THE NORTH. LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST...A SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR PUSHING INTO ALBERTA WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

500 MB TROF AXIS FORECAST BY MODELS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES BUT IT APPEARS
THE BETTER FORCING AND COLDER TEMPS AT 500 MB WILL PASS JUST OUR
NORTH OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING ANY FLURRIES TONIGHT.
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX SOME IN THE WAKE OF THE H5 TROF
AXIS LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SEEM TO SUGGEST
MORE LOW LEVEL RH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...ESP AFFECTING
THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD THEN TRACK QUICKLY SE INTO THE MIDWEST
LATE SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN TO
OUR WEST...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPS ALOFT CERTAINLY COLD FOR
SNOW BUT AT THE LOW LEVELS...AT LEAST INITIALLY...WILL BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW BEFORE ENOUGH EVAP COOLING TAKES
PLACE TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACRS OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES WHERE AFTN TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY GET INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S EARLY BEFORE SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 30S AS THE PRECIP BEGINS.
FURTHER NORTH...THINK IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THE MIX FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE AFTN...WITH ALL AREAS SEEING
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. BECAUSE OF THE WARM GROUND
AND AIR TEMPS INITIALLY...ANY SNOW THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE SFC
SHOULD MELT QUICKLY UNTIL LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.

UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION SHOULD PUSH FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SE LATE SUNDAY EVENING TO BRING ANY LINGERING PRECIP
TO AN END FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACRS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO
THE REGION BEFORE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
DEEP TROF PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THRU WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 50S EAST...AND THE
LOW TO MID 60S WEST.

[WeatherMonger]

This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Mar 3 2012, 05:00 PM

[snowlover2]

Not sure how to start this as it's set to start before the night is out or might already be? But it gives an outlet for some after yesterday's event. Hopefully JD or another mod can correct anything I've missed

12Z WRF-NMM shows it pretty well

This can be used as the OBS thread. I made a thread for this a while back but it got shoved to the bottom of the page and barely used. OBS thread was going to be necessary anyway.

[Niclc123]

Of course it hits just south of Columbus. even when there is snow it will not reach Ohio.

[WeatherMonger]

[Undertakerson]

I'm sure the tornado affected communities would rather it didn't even snow a little bit during their efforts to clean up.

70's in Gtown KY on Friday and snow tonight

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
334 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

That'd be cold, albeit relatively light, slap in the face for many.

[WeatherMonger]

I'm sure the tornado affected communities would rather it didn't even snow a little bit during their efforts to clean up.

70's in Gtown KY on Friday and snow tonight
That'd be cold, albeit relatively light, slap in the face for many.

Yeah, it's not real fun. Back in '06 when we had 2 EF2's hit on a Sunday night, the following Friday we were under a blizzard warning. I didn't get power back until Saturday or Sunday evening in an all electric house.

Back on topic, yesterday we were looking at less than a half inch here with up to an inch further north. Now looking at 1-2" across the area

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
518 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 313 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
TROF IS A LITTLE SLOW TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE MIDWEST...AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES DOWN INTO THE SYNOPTIC TROF TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PEORIA TO PARIS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERALL THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISSUES IN THE FORECAST CROP UP IN
THE EXTENDED WHEN ANOTHER TROF/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS...AND UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS HAVE HAD SOME SIGNIFICANT ISSUES DISCERNING THE BEHAVIOR
ULTIMATELY OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE GFS MOST NOTABLY CLOSING OFF
THE LOW AND STALLING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID MISS RIVER
VALLEY UP INTO THE APPALACHIANS. ECMWF WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE OVERALL
IN PUSHING THE SYSTEM OUT QUICKLY. HOWEVER...THIS MODEL RUN BRINGS
THE ECMWF IN LINE WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
CONUS. NOT WILLING TO JUMP ON THE NEW RUN JUST YET...BUT WILL PRIME
THE FORECAST FOR A FEW ADJUSTMENTS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON...BRINGING SNOW AFTER NOON AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
PRECIP MAY START OUT AS RAIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SWRN HALF
OF THE STATE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY MOVE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM. 06Z HPC QPF PUTS THE FORECAST IN EXCESS OF
THE 2 INCH RANGE...BUT WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED EARLY AND A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE QPF IN THE OVERNIGHT...BRINGS THE SNOW BACK TO A
1-2 INCH SCENARIO. TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER NOW WITH THE SYSTEM
OVERALL. ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BRIEFLY STICK AROUND IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS PRIOR TO 22Z-00Z BEFORE EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND
RATHER QUICK SATURATION OF THE COLUMN SHOULD HELP TO SWITCH MOST OF
THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOWFALL. SNOW SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP JUST PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROF AND
EXITS THE REGION.

HWO

000
FLUS43 KILX 041200
HWOILX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
600 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

ILZ036-040>042-047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073-051200-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-
FULTON-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-
600 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK WITHIN
AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A RAPID WARM UP WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES
INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING
WEDNESDAY...WITH STORMS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SOME SEVERE STORMS AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEEP INFORMED OF LATER
FORECASTS AS THE SITUATION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

[RobB]

Not really related to this clipper but posting here regardless. Snow showers currently falling IMBY with a dusting.

[WeatherMonger]

0Z WRF-NMM, looks like it went a bit further south. Skirting the edge on this run

[jdrenken]

Thanks for creating this Weathermonger.

[WeatherMonger]

Thanks for creating this Weathermonger.

Not a problem, until the potential for severe weather around the Wed/Thurs timeline is ruled in or out this is about all that's out there. Hopefully it's the last snow around here, 60's will be more and more common and I'll be ready for springs outdoor activities.

On topic, ILX aviation update pegs MBY. Too bad this wasn't earlier and a better snow

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
518 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 518 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST
LATER TODAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW TAKING A TRACK FROM
THE DAKOTAS TO SOUTHEASTERN MO TO SOUTHERN KY. BAND OF SNOW TO THE
LEFT OF THE TRACK WILL AFFECT SPI THE STRONGEST WITH MVFR TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS...WITH OTHER SITES FURTHER NORTH/EAST GETTING A MORE
GLANCING BLOW WITH MAILY MVFR. WILL START THE SNOW AT PIA/SPI AROUND
22Z...AND A LITTLE LATER FOR BMI/DEC/CMI. THE SNOW WILL BE MOVING
PAST THE TERMINALS BY 06Z...LEAVING BEHIND SOME MVFR STRATOCU WHICH
WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KT BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES...LIGHT NORTHERLY AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS PASS TO THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST
10-15 KT AFTER 06Z.

[WeatherMonger]

HPC Day 1 >4" snow probability map. Puts it right where Friday's weather happened, at least it's only 10%

[WeatherMonger]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1028 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1026 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING ECHOES EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO
SOUTHEAST IOWA...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ONLY
TO ABOUT DES MOINES. 12Z HRRR IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM IN
SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BOTH AGREE THAT AREAS AROUND CHAMPAIGN AND
DANVILLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN. LARGELY AM EXPECTING SNOW...
WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF RAIN MIXED IN INITIALLY BEFORE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING RAPIDLY TAKES PLACE. THE SOUTHEAST CWA IS THE BIGGEST
QUESTION MARK. AFTER LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HAVE TRENDED
TO RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS SOUTH OF I-70 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURES CLOSELY...DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE SUNSHINE
OCCURRING THIS MORNING...AS IT MAY END UP BEING MORE RAIN THAN
SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT IN THAT AREA.

[WeatherMonger]

A fast-moving Alberta clipper storm will move southeastward from the Northern Plains into the Midwest today. Light snow with this system will spread into central Illinois early this afternoon and evening, leaving an accumulation between 1 and 2 inches in a band from southeast Iowa to southern Indiana. A rapid warm-up will follow this storm, with highs again in the 60s by Tuesday. The next storm system will move from the Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley around midweek. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be increasing Wednesday and become likely Wednesday night and Thursday. Some severe storms and/or heavy rainfall could be possible over the Midwest with this system, so keep informed of later forecasts as the situation becomes better defined.

[WeatherMonger]

Not much as far as returns on the radar but flurries are falling now. Figured the air would be a little drier.

[WeatherMonger]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
210 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 155 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHING ACRS WESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
SPREADING SNOW AS FAR EAST AS EXTREME SE IOWA. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA...THE MORNING SUNSHINE HAS GIVEN WAY TO AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WEAK
STORM SYSTEM. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S NORTWHEST TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING
SPREADING THE LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE
QG FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SEEN AT THE 700-500 MB LAYER...WITH
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK NEG EPV SITUATED FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE SE
TOWARDS EFFINGHAM IN THE 23Z- 03Z TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION...TOTAL
TOTALS OF 50-55 WERE FORECAST ALONG THIS NARROW BAND...INDICATIVE
OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED/CONVECTIVE SNOWS
FROM SW THRU S-CENTRAL IL. DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES BY
LATE THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SPRINGFIELD TO EFFINGHAM
LINE.

THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS GETTING SHUNTED
OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT OFF
TO OUR EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DURING THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME...STRONG
SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUE AND WED SUGGEST
SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH AT TIMES.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE ARE EXPTD TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST
TO THE MIDDLE 60S FAR WEST TUESDAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON WED
ALTHOUGH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS DO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WHICH MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING...KEEPING AFTN HIGHS DOWN
A BIT. FOR NOW...WL CONTINUE TO GO AT OR ABOVE GUID FOR WED.

[WeatherMonger]

Note to self, steady light snow now falling.

[Sagebrusher]

Note to self, steady light snow now falling.

It's really coming down here in IC! close to a half-inch in less than an 30 minutes

[WeatherMonger]

Yeah, it's starting to come down at a good clip now. Melting on the warmed surfaces but starting to coat grassy areas. Tried to get a quick pic out back at work. Definitely isn't your scenic mountain view or anything.