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> Mar 24 - 26 MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3Days Out] Forecasts
Blizz
post Mar 9 2012, 07:27 PM
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I know what you are thinking.... WHO IS THIS CRAZY WEENIE MAKING A THREAD 300+ HOURS OUT!?!

I know it's the long range... but a good chance that SOMETHING (Rain/Snow) will be happening in this time frame so... Lets do it! rolleyes.gif

Late season snow storm possible? or just GFS jokes? It's only March 24th... not TOO late for a POSSIBILITY for a storm... maybe it will be one of those seasons... Early Snow, No Snow, Late Snow...

We'll see!! rolleyes.gif

GFS 18z

360:



372:



384:



- Weather weenie Blizz making his first thread about the GFS long range forecast... smh. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Blizz: Mar 9 2012, 07:35 PM


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Juniorrr
post Mar 9 2012, 08:15 PM
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^^ hoping for a miracle here lol xD
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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 9 2012, 08:35 PM
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From my first post in the Mar 12-? warm spell thread:

QUOTE
How ironic would it be if all we see is warm, warm, warm, and then suddenly winter decides to make one last comeback around the end of March? Not expecting it to happen, but for a "winter" like this a tease before and after the season would fit in place laugh.gif


The MJO actually does have some support of at least less warmth and perhaps some more cold after this time frame (that says NOTHING about snow), and while the teleconnections aren't flipping towards favorable status, they are trending towards neutral in a favorable sense (-PNA trending less negative but not positive, +EPO trending towards neutral but not negative). The 18z GFS is odd looking though as it shows more blocking, something that we haven't had for almost the entire winter, so with the same pattern I would be surprised if more blocking does develop by this time frame. While this storm shouldn't be anything like the 18z GFS, it would not surprise me if at the end of the month into early April, perhaps winter, at least in terms of a colder rain and maybe a little bit of snow in parts of the Northeast, could make one last brief comeback.
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shane o mac
post Mar 9 2012, 09:42 PM
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Pretty good run for nova scotia only time can tell
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sheabird32
post Mar 9 2012, 10:54 PM
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Would be fantastic for my March 30-April 3 trip to Sugarloaf, ME smile.gif One can only hope and pray this far out.
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fisherboy
post Mar 10 2012, 06:34 PM
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If it did try to snow ground tempertures might be to warm to stick, but i would never rule anything out the way this winter has gone wink.gif

This post has been edited by fisherboy: Mar 10 2012, 06:35 PM


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The Snowman
post Mar 10 2012, 08:24 PM
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laugh.gif


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2013-2014: 69.5"
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 11 2012, 02:14 PM
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QUOTE(Blizz @ Mar 9 2012, 07:27 PM) *
I know what you are thinking.... WHO IS THIS CRAZY WEENIE MAKING A THREAD 300+ HOURS OUT!?!

I know it's the long range... but a good chance that SOMETHING (Rain/Snow) will be happening in this time frame so... Lets do it! rolleyes.gif

Late season snow storm possible? or just GFS jokes? It's only March 24th... not TOO late for a POSSIBILITY for a storm... maybe it will be one of those seasons... Early Snow, No Snow, Late Snow...

We'll see!! rolleyes.gif

GFS 18z

360:



372:



384:



- Weather weenie Blizz making his first thread about the GFS long range forecast... smh. laugh.gif

Wow...just wow laugh.gif
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shane o mac
post Mar 11 2012, 06:08 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Mar 11 2012, 03:14 PM) *
Wow...just wow laugh.gif

Now what does it say theres something in this time frame for nova scotia ...
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NorEaster07
post Mar 16 2012, 01:32 PM
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Latest GFS12z shows this for March 27th.. A clipper from Canada dives down.


Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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east coast storm
post Mar 16 2012, 02:23 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 16 2012, 01:32 PM) *
Latest GFS12z shows this for March 27th.. A clipper from Canada dives down.


Attached Image

Looks interesting. I think you would agree, we should not close the book on
winter just yet, until early April. If the GFS is correct, that would probably
just be some wet snow for Long Island.
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FarmingdaleFarme...
post Mar 16 2012, 03:42 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 16 2012, 02:32 PM) *
Latest GFS12z shows this for March 27th.. A clipper from Canada dives down.


Attached Image



That just made my day.


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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 16 2012, 04:09 PM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Mar 16 2012, 02:23 PM) *
Looks interesting. I think you would agree, we should not close the book on
winter just yet, until early April. If the GFS is correct, that would probably
just be some wet snow for Long Island.

It is definitely possible to close the book on snow... it could still be colder, that has not been ruled out for early April, but any support that is there for a colder pattern also signals it will not be strong and long lasting. The GFS and ECM have been going endlessly back and forth with this one, they're useless this far out.

QUOTE(FarmingdaleFarmer @ Mar 16 2012, 03:42 PM) *
That just made my day.

I didn't even bother to look at it twice - seeing the rest of this year's hour 192-384 fantasy snowstorms dissapear into nothing... Waiting until next winter to see snow holds much more promise than hoping for this winter to squeeze out something. If the 0.001% probability of snow during this pattern verifies, we can consider ourselves to be very (x10,000 times) lucky.
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east coast storm
post Mar 16 2012, 05:01 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Mar 16 2012, 04:09 PM) *
It is definitely possible to close the book on snow... it could still be colder, that has not been ruled out for early April, but any support that is there for a colder pattern also signals it will not be strong and long lasting. The GFS and ECM have been going endlessly back and forth with this one, they're useless this far out.
I didn't even bother to look at it twice - seeing the rest of this year's hour 192-384 fantasy snowstorms dissapear into nothing... Waiting until next winter to see snow holds much more promise than hoping for this winter to squeeze out something. If the 0.001% probability of snow during this pattern verifies, we can consider ourselves to be very (x10,000 times) lucky.

I was looking at the GFS. A backdoor cold front could move down from eastern canada
next weekend and stall along the MA area with cold high pressure in eastern canada
then low pressure in the midwest could move east to off the MA coast in the 26th-27th
timeframe possibly giving the NYC area some wet snow, winters last hurrah before
spring really sets in with nice weather.
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FarmingdaleFarme...
post Mar 16 2012, 05:06 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Mar 16 2012, 05:09 PM) *
I didn't even bother to look at it twice - seeing the rest of this year's hour 192-384 fantasy snowstorms dissapear into nothing... Waiting until next winter to see snow holds much more promise than hoping for this winter to squeeze out something. If the 0.001% probability of snow during this pattern verifies, we can consider ourselves to be very (x10,000 times) lucky.


I was laughing at the fact that even though it is almost late March, the models are still screwing with us.

Pretty funny IMO.


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thedarkestclouds
post Mar 16 2012, 05:46 PM
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QUOTE(FarmingdaleFarmer @ Mar 16 2012, 06:06 PM) *
I was laughing at the fact that even though it is almost late March, the models are still screwing with us.

Pretty funny IMO.


They do every year. And sometimes they continue well into April. Even in the megatorch spring of 2010, one GFS run like 300+ hours out showed a snow/mix event for the third week of April down to like Connecticut, haha.

This post has been edited by thedarkestclouds: Mar 16 2012, 05:47 PM
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NorEaster07
post Mar 17 2012, 09:26 AM
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So the Euro decides to throw a 980mb bomb off Long Island. Here's a general idea of how the snow totals looked on that run.


Attached Image



Attached Image



--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 17 2012, 09:27 AM
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0z ECMWF =

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


If this comes even close to verifying I'm holding the ECM accountable for verification of the first snow potential of the winter of 2012-13 laugh.gif
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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 17 2012, 09:35 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 17 2012, 09:26 AM) *
So the Euro decides to throw a 980mb bomb off Long Island. Here's a general idea of how the snow totals looked on that run.


Attached Image



Attached Image

Beat me to it by less than a minute laugh.gif

Remember the time that the ECM showed a fantasy blizzard and DT made that crazy snow map? The end result (rain) may repeat itself once again...
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SnowMan11
post Mar 17 2012, 09:37 AM
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The Euro monthlies show cold weather by the 1st week of April. This would be fitting for the winter if this happens. I am going to keep an eye on this.


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