Mar. 12-April 4th Plains/MW/OV/GL Warm Spell, Reality: Short Range [0-3 days] Options

[WeatherMonger]

I'm not real sure how to start this and GL may need added to title and dates could be extended I guess, but well above normal and possible record highs forecast for mid week across parts of the regions. I'm just ready for Spring

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
515 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 244 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE HAD
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE CWA ATOP A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN INVOLVES THE ULTIMATE DISPOSITION OF THIS LOW...IN REGARDS
TO RAINFALL OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE EXTENT OF
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO A CHALLENGE FOR THIS
ISSUANCE.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A GOOD 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOWER 48. COULD BE
THREATENING SOME RECORD HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH ARE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS. PRECIP-WISE...STILL LOOKING FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES
IT ON THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS WASHING IT OUT OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE ECMWF PUSHING IT BACK NORTH. RAIN CHANCES
START CREEPING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
810 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SPRING WEATHER DOMINATES THE EXTENDED...IN FACT AFTER MONDAY...WE
MAY BE SEEING WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS MORE LIKE EARLY MAY
VERSUS MARCH OR APRIL. SUNDAY...MOIST WARM ADVECTION WILL COMBINE
WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...UP OVER THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS
PROCESS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 18Z IN THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS...AND IN
FACE WE MAY BE SUNNY FOR A GOOD BIT OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
THUS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AGAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN BEFORE NOON.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINE WITH SEASONALLY MODEST MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS
TOR PRODUCE A BAND OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF A DRY SLOT.
AS THE DRY SLOT INTERACTS WITH THIS RAIN BAND...THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE. SPC HAS FORECASTED THIS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT I WILL LIMIT IT THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OR SO...WHERE THE
MOISTURE DEEPER PRIOR TO THE DRY SLOT. MONDAY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
REMAINS NEARBY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND RATHER STEEP LAPSE
RATES...WE COULD AGAIN SEE SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...AND EVEN A
POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. WE SHOULD NOT BE COLD ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...AND IN FACT...COULD BE NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTH
BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THE NORTH SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S WITH SOUTHWEST WIND BLOWING AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR WARM AND MILD...WITH POTENTIALLY MID TO
UPPER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH...IF WE ARE SUNNY AND WELL MIXED.
HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY...AND POTENTIAL CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT...WE WILL SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT THE
POTENTIAL HIGHS AND GO WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WIDESPREAD...WITH
A SOME MID 70S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FRONT MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG IT...AND MODELS CERTAINLY INDICATE SOME SURFACE
CAPE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...FORCING IS WEAK...AND WILL KEEP POPS VERY
LOW FOR NOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW. WE ARE DRY THURSDAY AND CHANCE POPS FRIDAY...BUT IN
GENERAL...WE ARE WITHIN A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF...DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S
WILL CERTAINLY PUT A REAL SPRING FEEL TO THE AIR OUTSIDE DURING THE
EXTENDED.
.ERVIN..

This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Mar 11 2012, 03:27 PM

[WeatherMonger]

Skilling

Extraordinary late spring/early summer-type pattern sets the stage for even warmer temperatures next week, readings more typical of May expected!
 
    The warming predicted Saturday is just the beginning of a multi-day warm-up which is expected to spill over into Sunday, when mid 60-degree highs are likely and into Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, when 70-degree temperatures--readings more typical of May than March--are predicted.
  
 
70-degree readings next week within striking distance of Chicago temperature records
 
     The record high Tuesday is 73-degrees and 77-degrees on Wednesday. The predicted 71 and 74-degree highs put each day's peak reading only slightly below the records on those dates.

[Snow____]

Yeah I can't wait. Not even any 50s in my 7 day. Gotta love it.

[WeatherMonger]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
254 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...20-30 DEGREES ON AVERAGE...IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IF THESE TEMPERATURES
PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME RECORDS FALL. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM BEING AS WARM AS SUGGESTED WOULD BE THE EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION AND/OR CLOUD COVER. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SINK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING/WASHING
OUT AS IT PARALLELS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...AS WILL ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEYOND THURSDAY.

[supersaver_run_d...]

Our normal highs through the next week are lower 40s. Even the lows exceed this.

[Ithiel]

All signs point to an entire week, if not more, of temperatures above 60 here in Detroit. A full week of 60's has only ever happened 3 times here, and we could challenge the record of 9 consecutive days when all is said and done.

Already had several beautiful days this March and it's only going to get better. Amazing.

[Snow____]

Our average high is 50. We have the potential for 5 or more days in the 70s.

[garn]

Supposed to be in the 70's here most of the week. Just how mild of a winter it has been here? Trees are budding!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?m...zmx=1&zmy=1

[WeatherMonger]

For all intents and purposes we skipped winter, are we going to skip spring as well and head straight to summer? Hate to see what summer will be like

Be a little odd to wish for a T'storm in March to cool things down a bit. Doubt it's that drastic, but be nice to get a few none the less. Maybe a see text day or two coming up?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

AS ANTICIPATED...RAIN HAS HELD OFF FOR MUCH OF TODAY...THOUGH IT
IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIVING THE PRECIPITATION DRAWS CLOSER. THE THICKENING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE NOT PREVENTED A VERY WARM DAY FOR EARLY
MARCH...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS TODAY REVOLVE
AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH APPROACHING
UPPER LOW...AS WELL AS THE VERY WARM/APPROACHING RECORD LEVEL
WARMTH ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IS ALSO A FORECAST
CONCERN AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES FAIRLY HUMID TO GO ALONG WITH
THE MILD TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.


LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG RIDGING AND EFFECTIVELY
WASHES OUT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY/ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 12-14C. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. THE
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND/OR PRECIPITATION FORCED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY MOIST. ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION COULD
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A NOTCH OR TWO...BUT THERE IS REALLY NO
STRONG FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
SO...FORECAST CURRENTLY ADVERTISES A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DAILY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROF DIGGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST SHOULD FORCE STRONGER DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BY SUNDAY
PULLING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.

BAK

[WeatherMonger]

Local forecast

Late Afternoon: A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 69. South southeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight: A chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 7pm. Low around 53. South wind between 16 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 73. Breezy, with a south southwest wind between 13 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. West southwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 75. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 75.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 73.

Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73.

[ohiobuckeye45]

winter woes are long gone

[HassayWx2306]

Yeah I realized today while playing basketball, and seeing the forecast, forget snow. having an almost non winter. I'll take this from now til november

[Love_XtremeWeath...]

Welp, got the good 'ole summer sports car out. usually happens in April but this is just awesome! After March 1 I officially got out of snow mode. So now i'm in storm chase mode and warm weather! this will be an early summer for sure, the plants will no doubt be getting into full spring in a week and a half or so which will only help to moderate lows and any potential cold spells we might still have. How does this possibly correlate to summer? Are the odds of a cool wet summer heightened? Or is this going to be more of a dust bowl-ish type summer? Or no correlation at all?

[Illinois blizzar...]

Loving these temperatures..

Champaign / Urbana, University of Illinois-Willard
Lat: 40.04 Lon: -88.28 Elev: 774
Last Update on Mar 12, 1:53 pm CDT

A Few Clouds and Windy

74 °F
(23 °C)
Humidity: 48 %
Wind Speed: S 29 G 39 MPH
Barometer: 29.81" (1009.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 53 °F (12 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

This post has been edited by Illinois blizzard: Mar 12 2012, 02:06 PM

[WeatherMonger]

With as much as we have overshot forecasted highs the past few months, I think it's likely we'll see our first 80 degree reading this week. Today was forecast to be 73

Springfield, Capital Airport
Lat: 39.86   Lon: -89.67   Elev: 586
Last Update on Mar 12, 2:52 pm CDT

Fair and Breezy

77 °F
(25 °C)
Humidity: 37 %
Wind Speed: SW 23 G 31 MPH
Barometer: 29.76" (1007.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 49 °F (9 °C)
Heat Index: 78 °F (26 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

[WeatherMonger]

So close today, currently 79 degrees and aside from being at work next 20 minutes loving it.

[Michael Cross]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
745 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

...

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

...NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A
REMARKABLE STRETCH OF WARMTH FOR SW LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME OF OUR
CURRENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE GRAND RAPIDS
AREA...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...COULD
BE THREATENED OR BROKEN AT TIMES. OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
ALONE ARE ABOUT 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (NORMAL HIGH FOR GRR IS
43F). WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A STRENGTHENING AND DIGGING JET
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THIS
SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AND A VERY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THESE DETAILS WILL BE BETTER WORKED OUT AS
THE JET EVOLVES AND UPPER LEVEL SAMPLING ENSUES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
OUR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY WARM AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

In yesterday's long term forecast, they mentioned 80F for KGRR next week!

Looks like winter is gone for this year. I'm excited to see what spring/summer has in store. Had a good round of thunderstorms come through tonight which is uncommon for this early in March.

[Ithiel]

I cant say enough about this weather we have going on right now. Just beautiful and only going to get better, we're going to have our first 70 degree day of the season on Wednesday and it looks to get even warmer towards the start of next week. I'm definitely over winter now, especially considering how depressingly pathetic it was this year.

If the warmth lasts as long as it looks like it will it may very well be historic for much of SEMI.

This post has been edited by Ithiel: Mar 12 2012, 09:44 PM

[HassayWx2306]

and my temps only go up in the forecast. 75 by next monday. 90 by Easter?

[trd0711]

Couldn't ask for better weather for mid March.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
105 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2012

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AS THE RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SET UP TO THE EAST.....TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.