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> Mar 13-14 MidAtl/NE Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 See Risk - Forecasts & OBS
NYCSuburbs
post Mar 12 2012, 08:48 PM
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This thread is for the scattered thunderstorm potential tomorrow evening, focusing over parts of the northern Mid Atlantic and parts of SNE.


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SPC discussion:

QUOTE
...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ONTARIO BY EARLY
TUE...LOW-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD PROMOTE SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO LIE FROM CNTRL NY SWWD INTO WRN VA. WITH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE 1 KM AGL...SETUP SHOULD PROMOTE AMPLE
SUNSHINE WITH MLCAPE RISING TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
REGION WILL LIE ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WLYS...RESULTING
IN MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KT. COMBINED WITH PERHAPS
ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH...TSTM COVERAGE MAY BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW
SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS.


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FarmingdaleFarme...
post Mar 12 2012, 08:51 PM
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is there a possiblity thsat long island can have some severe wx from this early sason event?


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yankees
post Mar 12 2012, 09:07 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Mar 12 2012, 09:48 PM) *
This thread is for the scattered thunderstorm potential tomorrow evening, focusing over parts of the northern Mid Atlantic and parts of SNE.


Attached Image


SPC discussion:


Very interesting to see a see text this early in the season. Typically we see the first severe weather possibility in May and the earliest end of April. It will be interesting to see if the NAM is correct with thunderstorms occuring in the area tommorow.


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Summer Weather Safety
Summer is here and here are some tips to stay safe

Severe Weather
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/severeweather/index.shtml

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09-10 43.5 inches ( Newly Updated from 39 inches)
10-11 60.5 inches
11-12 21 inches
12-13 45.5 inches
13-14 57 inches
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WEATHERFAN100
post Mar 12 2012, 09:34 PM
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QUOTE(FarmingdaleFarmer @ Mar 12 2012, 09:51 PM) *
is there a possiblity thsat long island can have some severe wx from this early sason event?

This won't be much widespread severe weather event...rather a widely scattered isolated strong to severe storm threat. To answer your question, The "best" parameters suggest the best spot to be south of LI/NYC.


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Winter 2013-2014:
December: 12.15"
January:
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FarmingdaleFarme...
post Mar 12 2012, 09:46 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ Mar 12 2012, 10:34 PM) *
This won't be much widespread severe weather event...rather a widely scattered isolated strong to severe storm threat. To answer your question, The "best" parameters suggest the best spot to be south of LI/NYC.



I kind of suspected thst W-LI would be left out, we really are the tri-states screw zone for good wx.


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yankees
post Mar 13 2012, 05:52 AM
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QUOTE
SPC AC 130558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2012

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION/ONTARIO MOVES
ESEWD TOWARD THE NERN CONUS...COMPLEX TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER WRN
NOAM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES AHEAD OF AN EJECTING SHORT-WAVE PORTION OF THE
LARGER-SCALE WRN UPPER TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTHEAST -- WHERE TROUGHING EXTENDING SEWD FROM AN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
LOW IS FORECAST.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH MODEST
DESTABILIZATION /AFTERNOON MIXED-LAYER CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A FEW
STRONGER CELLS MAY EVOLVE...AIDED BY MODERATE WLY FLOW -- AND THUS
LOW-PROBABILITY POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IS
APPARENT. THREAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...WITH DIURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION YIELDING A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

..GOSS/GARNER.. 03/13/2012

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


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Summer Weather Safety
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Severe Weather
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09-10 43.5 inches ( Newly Updated from 39 inches)
10-11 60.5 inches
11-12 21 inches
12-13 45.5 inches
13-14 57 inches
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STEVE392
post Mar 13 2012, 07:00 AM
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With what rolled thru early today, how much of a threat will there be tonight?


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justintime2989
post Mar 13 2012, 08:11 AM
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Yea I thought the same with big time cloud cover it would be hard to do
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FarmingdaleFarme...
post Mar 13 2012, 03:43 PM
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Looks like this was a BUST.


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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 13 2012, 04:21 PM
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QUOTE(FarmingdaleFarmer @ Mar 13 2012, 03:43 PM) *
Looks like this was a BUST.

It was never supposed to be anything big; the most that's supposed to come out of it is isolated storms (and by isolated, I literally mean only a handful of storms). There was never much of a big bust potential due to the low potential in place, but it is ending up as a slight bust as it's 21z and there's not a single storm, while the models already had around 2-4 storms in Pennsylvania by this time. With the parameters in place, I wouldn't rule out maybe one or two isolated storms from forming, but it doesn't look so likely.
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New England Stor...
post Mar 13 2012, 06:48 PM
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Still have a general Tstorm risk imby, we might not see anything but a heavy shower but still this is march in sne, seeing any kind of tstm risk is rare.


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Weather 2012-2013
Oct 28-29 Sandy Gust to 60MPH
Oct 29 Thunder storms
Dec 29 2.8 inch of snow
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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 13 2012, 09:12 PM
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Someone showed up a little late laugh.gif

At least the storms verified according to the precipitation placement and formed over New England, not in the Mid Atlantic where most models were showing formation, some of them which seemed suspiciously too far south...

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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 15 2012, 12:08 PM
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Nice little t-storm moving through

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--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 15 2012, 02:41 PM
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A good amount of lightning with some loud boomers as more storms roll through..

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--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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FarmingdaleFarme...
post Mar 15 2012, 05:30 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 15 2012, 03:41 PM) *
A good amount of lightning with some loud boomers as more storms roll through..

Attached Image



What month is this?


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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 15 2012, 06:23 PM
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QUOTE(FarmingdaleFarmer @ Mar 15 2012, 05:30 PM) *
What month is this?

May March
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