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> California Drought: La Nina has waned/ El Nino by Fall?, ENSO is predicted to be possibly El Nino by November
idecline
post Mar 13 2012, 06:25 AM
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FromAccuweather news:
QUOTE
Current California Drought and Water Supply
By Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
Mar 12, 2012; 5:45 PM ET


Contrary to last year's record high snowfalls, California's weather this year was marked by significant drought conditions that could having lasting implications on the Golden State's water supply.

Unlike some states, California's water year, the 12-month period over which hydrologic records are kept, is measured from July 1 to June 30. As of Feb. 1, 2012, the precipitation had only hit 60 percent of the average.

Totals are drastically low in snowpack water content as well, currently resting at about 35 percent of the average for this time of year. Last year on this date, snowpack average was 135 percent.

According to california.gov, "Water year 2012 is beginning to look like it will be one of our drier water years, currently running in the lower 20 percent rank of years."

But the report is still positive for the water supply.

"Reservoir storage is the bright spot in the outlook, still about 10 percent above average for the date, thanks to a bountiful 2011," the website reads.

Different opinions are circulating, however, regarding the months to come.

"While last year certainly has probably prevented a disaster with the low snow totals this year, I don't necessarily agree that it means there won't be some repercussions this year," said AccuWeather's Expert Senior Meteorologist and Western U.S. Weather Expert Ken Clark.

"Though reservoirs are more filled than they have been, with so low of snowpack (even with the current storm) there will be a water loss this year."


Others believe the real implications will likely be seen next season, depending on the amount of precipitation that falls should an El Nino pattern occur.

El Nino is a phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-normal water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and has the opposite effects of La Nina, the pattern we have seen for the past two years.

"We almost never get a La Nina pattern three years in a row," according to AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson. "So, we are pretty confident about the pattern switching to an El Nino. It's just a matter of when that change occurs."

According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Meghan Evans, the ENSO pattern is amidst the transition from a weak La Nina to a neutral phase.

"The pattern should be entirely neutral by April. However, it is possible that the pattern may not switch to El Nino until next fall," Evans said.

Should this occur, it could mean a very wet winter 2013 for California with potential for widespread flooding.

A series of storms this week will bring some needed moisture to part of the state, but even more precipitation will be needed to bring amounts back to normal for this season.


I have been tracking the CPC's ENSO update for quite a while, and also watching the SST's and other exciting graphics about the ENSO pattern at the TAO array site...the oceans have a big say in the weather, especially in Coastal California...

CPC ENSO weekly advisory

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) home

El Nino appears to be on his way....but how soon? Update: El Nino conditions may exist as soon as November

This post has been edited by idecline: May 28 2012, 05:58 AM


--------------------
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"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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Beck
post Mar 13 2012, 10:30 AM
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Another possibility that no one seems to be considering is that we may just get a neutral ENSO pattern next winter instead of an El Nino. We haven't had a neutral winter since 2003-04 (which was positive neutral). Ever since 2004, every winter has been going straight from one to the other (El Nino to La Nina and vice-versa) without any neutral winters. We used to get them a lot all the way through the 1990s, but hardly ever since then. Only 2001-02 and 2003-04 were the most recent neutral winters.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.45" (-0.33")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.78"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.81"

Temecula Weather Pages

QUOTE(wingsovernc @ Sep 13 2014, 04:20 PM) *
You're cute when you're whining Becky :)
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Beck
post Mar 13 2012, 01:22 PM
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Also, I think we can expect an early start to the fire season this year. The past two years featured virtually non-existent fire seasons, due to the abundant rainfall in both of those Autumns and lack of dangerous fire conditions to set them up.

The last real fire season we had was in October-November 2008, due to a dry Spring, Summer and Fall that year and vicious offshore flow & unusually strong heatwaves lasting into early December.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.45" (-0.33")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.78"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.81"

Temecula Weather Pages

QUOTE(wingsovernc @ Sep 13 2014, 04:20 PM) *
You're cute when you're whining Becky :)
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idecline
post Mar 14 2012, 05:54 PM
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QUOTE(Beck @ Mar 13 2012, 10:30 AM) *
Another possibility that no one seems to be considering is that we may just get a neutral ENSO pattern next winter instead of an El Nino. We haven't had a neutral winter since 2003-04 (which was positive neutral). Ever since 2004, every winter has been going straight from one to the other (El Nino to La Nina and vice-versa) without any neutral winters. We used to get them a lot all the way through the 1990s, but hardly ever since then. Only 2001-02 and 2003-04 were the most recent neutral winters.


If you look at the ENSO update I posted above it will show you the probabilities of each (Neutral, El Nino, and La Nina) for each of the coming months. ENSO neutral is definitely going to happen very soon, and El Nino cannot be offically called an 'El Nino' until the parameters of SST's in the Nino.3 region are above the anomaly parameter for several consecutive months.

The possibility of ENSO neutral for several months is almost certain, but Idee (and others) have seen signs of a very large shift in the pool of the extremely warm water piled up in the Western Pacific basin.

The graphics on the TAO array page really show the sloshing back and forth effect that the Pacific basin undergoes as we shift between El Nino's to La Nina's and the neutral phases in between. smile.gif


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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Beck
post Mar 21 2012, 10:14 AM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Mar 14 2012, 03:54 PM) *
If you look at the ENSO update I posted above it will show you the probabilities of each (Neutral, El Nino, and La Nina) for each of the coming months. ENSO neutral is definitely going to happen very soon, and El Nino cannot be offically called an 'El Nino' until the parameters of SST's in the Nino.3 region are above the anomaly parameter for several consecutive months.

The possibility of ENSO neutral for several months is almost certain, but Idee (and others) have seen signs of a very large shift in the pool of the extremely warm water piled up in the Western Pacific basin.

The graphics on the TAO array page really show the sloshing back and forth effect that the Pacific basin undergoes as we shift between El Nino's to La Nina's and the neutral phases in between. smile.gif

Most people have been calling for El Nino to come next winter, but neutral is still possible. Kinda like 2003-04, which had warm ENSO conditions but not warm enough to be an El Nino.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.45" (-0.33")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.78"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.81"

Temecula Weather Pages

QUOTE(wingsovernc @ Sep 13 2014, 04:20 PM) *
You're cute when you're whining Becky :)
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idecline
post Apr 16 2012, 06:08 AM
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Thanks to Beck rolleyes.gif I have borrowed some graphics from his post about Southern Californias weather and now we have something to talk about..Attached File  post_19931_1334417961.gif ( 25.03K ) Number of downloads: 0


If you notice above that Nino areas 1 and 2 are now starting to show SST's that are slightly above normal, but the Nino 3 chart is barely above normal after a small setback towards cooler, the Nino3.4 and Nino 4 areas are still below normal after along period of well-below normal (La Nina conditions) SST's. Due to the cyclical pattern of the distribution of warm water in the equatorial Pacific, it takes a while for conditions to return to a 'quazi-normal' state after an extended period of warmer, or cooler than normal SST's. The counter-intuitive thing about 'normal' ocean temperatures(just like weather conditions) is that 'normal' is quite often the aberrational point of balance on a see-saw that never quite stops its back and forth motion.

That an Official El Nino will be months or even years away...there is no doubt with the extended La Nina conditions that have been in place that the large pool of warmer than normal water in the Western Pacific will eventually slosh back towards the Eastern Pacific equatorial regions....signs of this happening are already showing in areas Nino 1+2 and Nino 3...whether the warm water push becomes significant enough to raise the waters to the parameters of Official El Nino status is unknown ....
Attached File  post_19931_1334418116_thumb.jpg ( 60.89K ) Number of downloads: 0


If you look at the model predictions ...more than one are trending towards an extended 'warm event this coming winter ...this bears watching as the Pacific Ocean has a long memory in terms of 'heat exchange' and conditions do not change as quickly or abruptly as the atmosphere can. As we have seen from the extended La Nina pattern, (and even more so during El Nino's) that the distribution of heat energy in the Pacific Ocean has a great deal to with the weather not only in California but many of the weather patterns throughout the World.


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post May 28 2012, 06:13 AM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Apr 16 2012, 06:08 AM) *
Thanks to Beck rolleyes.gif I have borrowed some graphics from his post about Southern Californias weather and now we have something to talk about..Attached File  post_19931_1334417961.gif ( 25.03K ) Number of downloads: 0


If you notice above that Nino areas 1 and 2 are now starting to show SST's that are slightly above normal, but the Nino 3 chart is barely above normal after a small setback towards cooler, the Nino3.4 and Nino 4 areas are still below normal after along period of well-below normal (La Nina conditions) SST's. Due to the cyclical pattern of the distribution of warm water in the equatorial Pacific, it takes a while for conditions to return to a 'quazi-normal' state after an extended period of warmer, or cooler than normal SST's. The counter-intuitive thing about 'normal' ocean temperatures(just like weather conditions) is that 'normal' is quite often the aberrational point of balance on a see-saw that never quite stops its back and forth motion.

That an Official El Nino will be months or even years away...there is no doubt with the extended La Nina conditions that have been in place that the large pool of warmer than normal water in the Western Pacific will eventually slosh back towards the Eastern Pacific equatorial regions....signs of this happening are already showing in areas Nino 1+2 and Nino 3...whether the warm water push becomes significant enough to raise the waters to the parameters of Official El Nino status is unknown ....
Attached File  post_19931_1334418116_thumb.jpg ( 60.89K ) Number of downloads: 0


If you look at the model predictions ...more than one are trending towards an extended 'warm event this coming winter ...this bears watching as the Pacific Ocean has a long memory in terms of 'heat exchange' and conditions do not change as quickly or abruptly as the atmosphere can. As we have seen from the extended La Nina pattern, (and even more so during El Nino's) that the distribution of heat energy in the Pacific Ocean has a great deal to with the weather not only in California but many of the weather patterns throughout the World.


The latest ENSO evaluation by NOAA (May 21, 2012) has El Nino conditions possibly occurring as soon as the end of the summer, whether or not the parameters reach the official threshold is irrelevant...IMHO

There is a large pool of warm water that is below the surface in the equatorial regions, and a Kelvin wave appears to be propelling this water Eastward and slowly upwards towards the equatorial Eastern Pacific Basin. It is this push of warmer water that will dampen the thermocline, reducing upwelling, and allowing the warmer water to remain. This in turn will allow storms that are able to tap into this warmer water to send heavier bands of moisture inland when the winter rainy season does begin. This may not occur until after January or later as the build of an El Nino often produces warm, drier conditions until the jet stream clashes with the warm moist air from the equatorial climes.


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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