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> Mar. 14-15 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Slight Risk
snowlover2
post Mar 13 2012, 12:00 PM
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Not looking like anything big but there is a "See Text" for both of these days.

SPC Outlooks

This post has been edited by snowlover2: Mar 15 2012, 01:36 AM


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trd0711
post Mar 13 2012, 12:36 PM
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QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
105 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2012

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BETTER CONVECTIVE SETUP THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES ALOFT RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE HIGHLIGHTED BY PRECIP WATER
VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.25 AND EXPECTED TEMPS INTO THE 70S
THURSDAY WILL ENABLE AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG PLAUSIBLE. BL SHEAR VALUES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD LEND TO
CONVECTION LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. PRESENCE OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY THOUGH MAY SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER STORM
WITH WBZERO VALUES IN A FAVORABLE SPOT AT 9KFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
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melissa from ill...
post Mar 13 2012, 01:00 PM
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They expanded day 2 further south into central illinois.
Attached Image


...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...
PERSISTENT S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN A BROAD SWATH
OF MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ENCOMPASSING A LARGE
PART OF THE CNTRL CONUS. BY WED AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE RETURN
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-3500 J/KG FROM WI
TO WRN TX. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS NEBULOUS
WITH JUST A MODEST W/SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL UPSTREAM IMPULSES. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN SPARSE THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF A DRYLINE AND WEAK COLD FRONT. THE RELATIVELY BETTER
POTENTIAL AREAS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE OVER PARTS
OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND IN THE GREAT LAKES.

IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT TIED TO THIS MODEL STRENGTHENING A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST. OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION WOULD REMAIN QUITE
ISOLATED. SHOULD TSTMS FORM HERE...DEEPLY VEERED WIND PROFILES WOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD EVENTUALLY
SHIFT E LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE REGION IS GLANCED BY THE INFLUENCE
OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AND A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT INTERCEPTS THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR. A FEW NOCTURNAL /PRIMARILY
ELEVATED/ TSTMS MAY FORM AIDED BY THE ABOVE FEATURES ALONG WITH A
30-40 KT SWLY LLJ. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT WOULD YIELD A
RISK FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT TSTM COVERAGE AND
SPATIOTEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE ISOLATED TSTMS WOULD FORM...WILL
DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

..GRAMS.. 03/13/2012


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WeatherMonger
post Mar 13 2012, 01:36 PM
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12Z WRF NMM shows anything that develops mainly in MO and MI. As much as I love a good thunderstorm, I'd rather enjoy the current(perfect) weather we're having. As this past winter has shown you can't always depend on the calendar to tell you how it will be. Enjoy it while we can



This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Mar 13 2012, 01:37 PM
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snowlover2
post Mar 14 2012, 02:12 AM
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New Day 1

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH TIME...A BROAD
ZONE OF MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HEART OF
THE COUNTRY. FASTER SWLYS WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO AREAS FARTHER
NW...ON THE SERN FRINGE OF NWRN NOAM TROUGHING.

AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY FEATURES WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE WEATHER
WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
STATES...AND A DRYLINE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...BROAD AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...INTO AN AIRMASS FEATURING A LOW-LEVEL CAP BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH WEAKLY RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BOTH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK.
STILL...CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE...AND WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG CAPE ALONG WITH MODERATE FLOW
ALOFT...UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION -- AND SUBSEQUENT THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND
-- WOULD BE POSSIBLE. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO EXIST FROM UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS PARTS OF WI INTO FAR ERN
IA/IL.

LATER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE EVENING -- AND
ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS LOWER MI/INDIANA AND
VICINITY -- COULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED/ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WITH AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS
REGION...A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL MAY EVOLVE.

OVERALL HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS BOTH LIMITED AND ISOLATED ACROSS
THIS ENTIRE REGION...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES THIS FORECAST.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF A DRYLINE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH FAIRLY FLAT/MODERATE SWLY FLOW FIELD
ALOFT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/DRYLINE CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK -- AND THUS EXPECT CAPPING INVERSION TO HOLD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN MOST AREAS.

MODELS HINT THAT LOCAL CAP BREACHING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE VICINITY...AS A WEAK VORT MAX NOW MOVING INTO SWRN AZ
APPROACHES THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE CAPE ABOVE
THE CAP BUT MODEST SHEAR...ANY STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP COULD
ACQUIRE SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION -- WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY THE MAIN
THREAT. OVERALL HOWEVER...WITH THIS BEING A CONDITIONAL -- AND
LIKELY LOW COVERAGE EVENT AT BEST...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% WIND/HAIL
PROBABILITY...WITH ANY STORMS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING.


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snowlover2
post Mar 14 2012, 02:15 AM
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New Day 2

Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI
INTO NRN OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

VERY COMPLEX PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL
WEAK IMPULSES/SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE CONUS WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW REGIME FOR MARCH. THIS
FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY/LOWER MI.

...MI/OH...

TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROVE DIFFICULT THIS
PERIOD BUT LATEST NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK FEATURE WILL APPROACH
MI/OH VALLEY BY 18Z THURSDAY. IF TIMING IS ACCURATE IT APPEARS
STRONG LOW LEVEL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG
A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI INTO NRN IND.
IF LOWER 60S DEW POINTS DO SURGE INTO THIS REGION BY PEAK HEATING
THEN SBCAPE VALUES COULD EASILY EXCEED 2000 J/KG WITHIN A MODESTLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR STRONG/SEVERE
MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE A SECONDARY CONCERN AS TSTMS
PROPAGATE SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD NRN OH BY EARLY EVENING.

...MID MO VALLEY...

CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORT-WAVE
FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE MID MO VALLEY BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THIS SHORT-WAVE
BUT LATEST THINKING IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH STRONG HEATING WILL PROVE ADEQUATE IN GENERATING CONVECTION
ACROSS ERN NEB BY 21-23Z. LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SHOULD SHARPEN SOME
DURING THE DAY WITH LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
SERN NEB PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREACHED WHEN READINGS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. ONCE THIS OCCURS ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THEN PROPAGATE EWD INTO IA ALONG THE NOSE OF
A MODEST BUT VEERED LOW LEVEL JET. SWD EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS I-70 ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO. SHEAR PROFILES
FAVOR MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS THAT COULD MERGE INTO A WEAK MCS IF LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MAINTAINED AS NAM SUGGESTS. HOWEVER...THIS
OVERNIGHT SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN
THE LLJ SHOULD REFOCUS FARTHER WEST BY MORNING.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

STRONG HEATING ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL REMOVE INHIBITION BY 21Z
ACROSS SWRN KS/INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. IN THE ABSENCE OF
MEANINGFUL FORCING IT APPEARS ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE MARGINALLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.


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WeatherMonger
post Mar 14 2012, 08:15 AM
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Nice might see some storms afterall, title change in order


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WeatherMonger
post Mar 14 2012, 08:55 AM
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QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
615 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTER
OF THE NATION...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO
WASH OUT AS IT REACHES ILLINOIS. WHILE THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
ON THIS SCENARIO...THEY ARE ALL VARYING IN WHERE EXACTLY TO
GENERATE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS...AND
A WIDE-OPEN MOISTURE FLOW OFF THE GULF FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE...ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPES RISING TO
OVER 2000 J/KG AND LITTLE CAP. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY TO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF FOCUS ON ANY PARTICULAR BOUNDARY TO GET ANY
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY GOING. HAVE TENDED TO GO WITH THE LOWEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...BUT 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ARE
DOMINATING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
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WeatherMonger
post Mar 14 2012, 11:04 AM
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QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1014 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1015 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE SSW WINDS TO BREEZIER LEVELS TODAY.
OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST OF LINCOLN.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS AROUND 80F OR EVEN LOWER 80S WITH BREEZY SSW
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.


SPC UPGRADED AREAS SE OF THE IL RIVER INTO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY TONIGHT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THIS DUE TO INCREASED INSTABLITY WITH CAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG.
12Z KILX SOUNDING ALREADY SHOWED A CAPE OF 2900 J/KG. THOUGH STILL
LACKING A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT...SO CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED AS COLD FRONT PRESSES
SW TOWARD THE IA/IL BORDER BY SUNRISE THU. CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MO
AND SOUTHERN IA TO MOVE AND DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL IL IN MORE HUMID
AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F DURING THE REST OF TODAY AS
SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SW OF LINCON MAINLY AFTER
4 PM. THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SE IL
ESPECIALLY AROUND CLAY COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
MID EVENING.
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WeatherMonger
post Mar 14 2012, 11:57 AM
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Was in the slight risk a whole 3 1/2 hours.



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WeatherMonger
post Mar 14 2012, 12:44 PM
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Both areas of slight risk removed from day 2 as well


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melissa from ill...
post Mar 14 2012, 01:24 PM
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Our dewpoint is gettin up there. ILX:

Partly Cloudy

79 F
(26 C)
Humidity: 54 %
Wind Speed: S 16 G 26 MPH
Barometer: 30.00" (1015.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 61 F (16 C)
Heat Index: 80 F (27 C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.


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"Auntie Em, Uncle Henry, its a TWISTER its a TWISTER!"
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Juniorrr
post Mar 14 2012, 04:31 PM
Post #13




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Member No.: 25,413





could see some isolated weak thunderstorms...


--------------------
2013-2014 snowfall total: 52.2""
11/5/13: trace
11/12/13: 1"
11/26/13: 0.5-1"
12/6/13: 6.5"
12/10/13: 3.0"
12/13/13: 3.0"
12/16/13: 1.2"
1/2/14: 6.0"
1/5/14: 1.1"
1/9/14: 2.2"
1/16/14: 1.1"
1/17/14: 3.1"
1/18/14: 3.8"
1/21/14: 1.8"
1/25/14: 3.7"
1/26/14: ~1.5"
2/5/14: 6" w/glaze of ice
2/9/14: 1.5"
2/15/14: 3.7"
3/4/14: 2.0"
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snowlover2
post Mar 15 2012, 01:45 AM
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New Day 1 - Slight risk area is back

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND SRN OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

QUASI-ZONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. THURSDAY
WITH BELT OF STRONGER FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO CANADA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY REACHING THE TN AND SRN OH
VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL STALL FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA. A DRYLINE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY...

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ADVECTED ABOVE BROAD ZONE OF UPPER
50S-LOW 60S DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO A LARGE RESERVOIR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE 00Z THURSDAY RAOB DATA
INDICATE THE CAP IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER OVER THIS REGION THAN FARTHER
WEST. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING
THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEWD ADVECTING PLUME OF HIGHER
PW SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THIS REGION
THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT STORMS MAY
DEVELOP EARLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
DEEPER ASCENT. THE EARLY STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT WITH
MODERATE MUCAPE ALREADY IN PLACE...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE TN AND
OH VALLEY REGIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH
20-35 KT BETWEEN 0-6 KM FAVORING MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO EARLY EVENING.

...NERN KS INTO UPPER-MID MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...

WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
EWD THIS MORNING POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS
AREA WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE
GREATER WITH WWD EXTENT TOWARD CNTRL PLAINS...BUT THE CAP WILL ALSO
BE MORE PRONOUNCED WHICH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN STORM
INITIATION/COVERAGE IN THAT AREA. A FEW SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT AND ALONG LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...BUT SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WILL
MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM
COVERAGE IN MUCH OF THIS REGION.

...SRN PLAINS...

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST
ABOVE AXIS OF 60S DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML AND WEAK DRYLINE CONVERGENCE SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY SPARSE. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE MODEST...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST
CONDITIONAL UPON THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.


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HassayWx2306
post Mar 15 2012, 05:12 AM
Post #15




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Storms moving in early this morning on 2 hours of sleep waiting to get video and pictures. Severe thunderstorm warnings are up for part of Ohio for large hail. I'll source the radar and quote the warning

Source


QUOTE
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
556 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

OHC103-151015-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-120315T1015Z/
MEDINA OH-
556 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM EDT
FOR MEDINA COUNTY...

AT 552 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPENCER...OR 12 MILES WEST OF
MEDINA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
BRIARWOOD BEACH...WESTFIELD CENTER...CHIPPEWA-ON-THE-LAKE...MEDINA...
GLORIA GLENS PARK AND SEVILLE.

LAT...LON 4107 8217 4114 8216 4114 8207 4120 8207
4120 8198 4124 8198 4128 8195 4127 8168
4099 8169 4099 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 0956Z 259DEG 22KT 4108 8205

$$

MULLEN


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/29
First Lake Effect: 11/11
First Measurable Snow: 11/11
Winter Storm Watches: 4 (11/25. 1/23, 2/3, 3/1)
Winter Weather Advisories: 12 (12/6, 12/8, 12/13, 12/30, 1/2, 1/24, 1/26, 2/1, 2/7, 2/17, 3/1, 3/29)
Winter Storm Warnings:2 (11/26, 2/4)
Wind Chill Advisories: 9 (1/8, 1/20, 1/21, 1/22, 1/24, 1/25, 1/30, 2/27, 2/28)
Wind Chill Warnings: 2 (1/6-7. 1/27-29)
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Juniorrr
post Mar 15 2012, 08:22 AM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,486
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





lota random cells popping up everywhere


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2013-2014 snowfall total: 52.2""
11/5/13: trace
11/12/13: 1"
11/26/13: 0.5-1"
12/6/13: 6.5"
12/10/13: 3.0"
12/13/13: 3.0"
12/16/13: 1.2"
1/2/14: 6.0"
1/5/14: 1.1"
1/9/14: 2.2"
1/16/14: 1.1"
1/17/14: 3.1"
1/18/14: 3.8"
1/21/14: 1.8"
1/25/14: 3.7"
1/26/14: ~1.5"
2/5/14: 6" w/glaze of ice
2/9/14: 1.5"
2/15/14: 3.7"
3/4/14: 2.0"
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Snow____
post Mar 15 2012, 09:52 AM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,747
Joined: 16-November 08
From: Cincinnati, OH
Member No.: 16,172





Uh rest summertime storms. Very heavy rain and small hail. I don't see hail often so when I do I relish it.


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Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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Snow____
post Mar 15 2012, 10:23 AM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,747
Joined: 16-November 08
From: Cincinnati, OH
Member No.: 16,172





Buckets of rain coming down. Over an inch in the last hour.


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Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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wxman1952
post Mar 15 2012, 12:55 PM
Post #19




Rank: Tornado
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Group: Member
Posts: 346
Joined: 11-January 09
From: Saginaw, MI
Member No.: 16,877





had some marine warmings N and E of me on Lake Huron. With this weather anything can pop I'd guess.
http://saginawcountyweather.webs.com/


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Snow____
post Mar 15 2012, 02:04 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,747
Joined: 16-November 08
From: Cincinnati, OH
Member No.: 16,172





Looks like another round of storms in Southern Indiana are heading my way. I've already seen some small hail but mostly just heavy rain. About 1.3 inches actually. Might get a little floody around here with the next batch. May need a Flood Watch to accommodate the impending round.


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Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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