 Mar. 16-19 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Slight Risk |
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 Mar 16 2012, 01:39 AM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 9,576 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713  |
SPC has a slight risk area parts of TX/OK on the day 1 and a couple see text areas on the day 2.
SPC Outlooks This post has been edited by snowlover2: Mar 18 2012, 12:09 PM -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:2
# of Tornado Watches: # of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Warnings: |
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Mar 16 2012, 05:23 PM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,579 Joined: 8-December 10 From: Champaign, IL Member No.: 24,572 |
-------------------- Severe T watch Watches: 1
Severe T watch Warnings: 1 Tornado watches: Tornado warnings: |
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Mar 16 2012, 09:16 PM
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#3
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,478 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
Link to some pictures I snapped of a supercell-style storm cell near Chicago this afternoon.
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/...6-2012.html?m=1 -------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 4 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Mar 16 2012, 11:58 PM
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#4
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 234 Joined: 11-January 09 From: Saginaw, MI Member No.: 16,877 |
QUOTE(The Snowman @ Mar 16 2012, 10:16 PM)  Link to some pictures I snapped of a supercell-style storm cell near Chicago this afternoon. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/...6-2012.html?m=1 Great Pictures. If ya can get a thunderstorm at your location, seeing one in the distance is the next best thing. lol Awsome late winter continues. -------------------- |
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Mar 17 2012, 09:31 AM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,478 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
Tis the season.
Yet another strong storm cell to my west. Can't get any pictures that make out the storm, but I can see some defined cumulus clouds in the distance. Here's a radar picture for now.
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-------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 4 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Mar 17 2012, 10:19 AM
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#6
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,456 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
Little popups in C. MO... they way those are moving seems to be headed towards Columbia.
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Mar 17 2012, 10:56 AM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Mar 17 2012, 10:19 AM) Little popups in C. MO... they way those are moving seems to be headed towards Columbia. The low clouds ahead of the main storm are preventing me from taking decent pictures. -------------------- |
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Mar 17 2012, 11:01 AM
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,478 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Mar 17 2012, 10:19 AM) Little popups in C. MO... they way those are moving seems to be headed towards Columbia. Making a somewhat bowing formation.
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-------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 4 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Mar 17 2012, 11:02 AM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,478 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
QUOTE(The Snowman @ Mar 17 2012, 11:01 AM) Making a somewhat bowing formation. Some also having hail cores.
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-------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 4 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Mar 17 2012, 11:37 AM
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#10
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,534 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
Keeps creeping ever so closer, hate when they torment me like this.
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Mar 17 2012, 11:44 AM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,534 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
QUOTE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1031 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1031 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012 FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...WITH 15Z SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS INDICATING FOG/LOW OVERCAST PERSISTING BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR. VISBYS ARE NOW RAPIDLY IMPROVING...SO FOG SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE BY MIDDAY. MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER-MAKER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC IS ALREADY SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. 12Z HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND SHOWS THE CONVECTION TRACKING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER 18Z. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE S/SW KILX CWA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CONVECTION. READINGS WILL STILL REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...BUT SHOULD STAY IN THE 70S FURTHER S/SW DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP. BARNES |
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Mar 17 2012, 03:12 PM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,534 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
Slight risk area/hail/wind went unchanged. 2% tornado area may have shrank a bit
QUOTE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS... ...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS REGION THIS AFTERNOON... AS FORECAST IN THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A REDUCTION IN SURFACE BASED INHIBITION ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 C PER KM/ OVER ERN MO/WRN IL AND DECREASING WITH SEWD EXTENT INTO MIDDLE TN...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA ARE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTING FACTORS FOR A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO AN OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORM. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THE MULTICELL STORM MODE. THE STORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SWRN EXTENT /ALONG AND S OF THE MO/AR BORDER/ WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. |
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Mar 17 2012, 04:40 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,534 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
Leading edge just passed over, the temp dropped pretty drastically. See if we can get any small hail or not
This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Mar 17 2012, 04:42 PM |
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Mar 17 2012, 06:17 PM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,478 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Mar 17 2012, 04:40 PM) Leading edge just passed over, the temp dropped pretty drastically. See if we can get any small hail or not Great picture. 
-------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 4 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Mar 17 2012, 06:18 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,478 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
Looks like I might get in on some action.
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-------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 4 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Mar 17 2012, 07:30 PM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,579 Joined: 8-December 10 From: Champaign, IL Member No.: 24,572 |
Looks like i might be seeing some hail
-------------------- Severe T watch Watches: 1
Severe T watch Warnings: 1 Tornado watches: Tornado warnings: |
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Mar 18 2012, 03:04 AM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,534 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
QUOTE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 254 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 ILZ042-048-051-052-180900- CHRISTIAN-LOGAN-MENARD-SANGAMON- 254 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHRISTIAN...MENARD...SANGAMON AND SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT... AT 250 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TALLULA TO MORRISONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MORRISONVILLE... PETERSBURG... SPRINGFIELD... ATHENS... ROCHESTER... KINCAID... OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...FARMINGDALE...GLENARM...CURRAN... SALISBURY...LINCOLNS NEW SALEM AND JEROME. PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN. LAT...LON 4008 8999 4007 8948 3951 8905 3948 8902 3943 8903 3936 8954 3952 8954 3952 8967 3994 9000 TIME...MOT...LOC 0755Z 259DEG 13KT 3993 8986 3945 8948 $$ BAK |
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Mar 18 2012, 03:07 AM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,534 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
 QUOTE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...IL...IN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 180641Z - 180815Z THE BAND OF ONGOING STORMS...EAST OF THE BURLINGTON IA/QUINCY IL AND ST. LOUIS MO AREAS...APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA. THIS IS ALSO ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...WHICH HAS OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING MODERATELY LARGE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES...AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN SO AS LONG AS ACTIVITY PERSISTS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS COULD BE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...AT LEAST INTO THE 09-10Z TIME FRAME...PERHAPS LONGER...WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE INDIANA/ILLINOIS BORDER AREA. BUT A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION...BEYOND WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW...IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR.. 03/18/2012 ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 41009076 41379039 41548954 41228887 40798819 39608745 38838758 38278832 38428918 38728971 39969074 41009076 |
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Mar 18 2012, 03:20 AM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,534 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
Back to bed, amazing how every storm seems to split or dissipate as it reaches me.
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Mar 18 2012, 12:12 PM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,576 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
SPC has added a slight risk area to SE IN/SW OH/N KY. Extended the end date to the 18th and only the OV storms should be discussed here.
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