Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

3 Pages V   1 2 3 >  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Mar. 16-19 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Slight Risk
snowlover2
post Mar 16 2012, 01:39 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,531
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





SPC has a slight risk area parts of TX/OK on the day 1 and a couple see text areas on the day 2.

SPC Outlooks

This post has been edited by snowlover2: Mar 18 2012, 12:09 PM


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:6

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Warnings:0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Illinois blizzar...
post Mar 16 2012, 05:23 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,642
Joined: 8-December 10
From: Champaign, IL
Member No.: 24,572





Attached Image


--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Mar 16 2012, 09:16 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,966
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





Link to some pictures I snapped of a supercell-style storm cell near Chicago this afternoon.

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/...6-2012.html?m=1


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014 Severe Weather Season
Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Slight Risk Days: 11
Moderate Risk Days: 0
High Risk Days: 0


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
wxman1952
post Mar 16 2012, 11:58 PM
Post #4




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 349
Joined: 11-January 09
From: Saginaw, MI
Member No.: 16,877





QUOTE(The Snowman @ Mar 16 2012, 10:16 PM) *
Link to some pictures I snapped of a supercell-style storm cell near Chicago this afternoon.

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/...6-2012.html?m=1

Great Pictures. If ya can get a thunderstorm at your location, seeing one in the distance is the next best thing. lol Awsome late winter continues.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Mar 17 2012, 09:31 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,966
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





Tis the season.
Yet another strong storm cell to my west. Can't get any pictures that make out the storm, but I can see some defined cumulus clouds in the distance. Here's a radar picture for now.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014 Severe Weather Season
Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Slight Risk Days: 11
Moderate Risk Days: 0
High Risk Days: 0


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Mar 17 2012, 10:19 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,780
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





Little popups in C. MO... they way those are moving seems to be headed towards Columbia.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Mar 17 2012, 10:56 AM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,871
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Mar 17 2012, 10:19 AM) *
Little popups in C. MO... they way those are moving seems to be headed towards Columbia.


The low clouds ahead of the main storm are preventing me from taking decent pictures.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Mar 17 2012, 11:01 AM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,966
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Mar 17 2012, 10:19 AM) *
Little popups in C. MO... they way those are moving seems to be headed towards Columbia.

Making a somewhat bowing formation.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014 Severe Weather Season
Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Slight Risk Days: 11
Moderate Risk Days: 0
High Risk Days: 0


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Mar 17 2012, 11:02 AM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,966
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





QUOTE(The Snowman @ Mar 17 2012, 11:01 AM) *
Making a somewhat bowing formation.

Some also having hail cores.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014 Severe Weather Season
Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Slight Risk Days: 11
Moderate Risk Days: 0
High Risk Days: 0


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Mar 17 2012, 11:37 AM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,339
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





Keeps creeping ever so closer, hate when they torment me like this.


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Mar 17 2012, 11:44 AM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,339
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1031 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1031 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING...WITH 15Z SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS INDICATING
FOG/LOW OVERCAST PERSISTING BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY
AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR. VISBYS ARE NOW RAPIDLY IMPROVING...SO FOG
SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE BY MIDDAY.

MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER-MAKER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC IS ALREADY SHOWING CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. 12Z HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION AND SHOWS THE CONVECTION TRACKING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AFTER 18Z. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST...MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS
THE S/SW KILX CWA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CONVECTION. READINGS WILL
STILL REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...BUT
SHOULD STAY IN THE 70S FURTHER S/SW DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP.

BARNES
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Mar 17 2012, 03:12 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,339
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





Slight risk area/hail/wind went unchanged. 2% tornado area may have shrank a bit

QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...

...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
AS FORECAST IN THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
INDICATED A REDUCTION IN SURFACE BASED INHIBITION ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MS RIVER INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
/AROUND 7 C PER KM/ OVER ERN MO/WRN IL AND DECREASING WITH SEWD
EXTENT INTO MIDDLE TN...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA
ARE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTING FACTORS FOR A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO AN OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORM. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL MAINTAIN THE MULTICELL STORM MODE. THE STORM COVERAGE CONTINUES
TO BE MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SWRN EXTENT /ALONG AND S OF THE MO/AR
BORDER/ WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Mar 17 2012, 04:40 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,339
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





Leading edge just passed over, the temp dropped pretty drastically. See if we can get any small hail or not




This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Mar 17 2012, 04:42 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Mar 17 2012, 06:17 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,966
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Mar 17 2012, 04:40 PM) *
Leading edge just passed over, the temp dropped pretty drastically. See if we can get any small hail or not

Great picture. wink.gif


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014 Severe Weather Season
Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Slight Risk Days: 11
Moderate Risk Days: 0
High Risk Days: 0


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Mar 17 2012, 06:18 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,966
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





Looks like I might get in on some action.

Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image

 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014 Severe Weather Season
Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Slight Risk Days: 11
Moderate Risk Days: 0
High Risk Days: 0


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Illinois blizzar...
post Mar 17 2012, 07:30 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,642
Joined: 8-December 10
From: Champaign, IL
Member No.: 24,572





Looks like i might be seeing some hail
Attached Image


--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Mar 18 2012, 03:04 AM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,339
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





QUOTE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
254 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

ILZ042-048-051-052-180900-
CHRISTIAN-LOGAN-MENARD-SANGAMON-
254 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHRISTIAN...MENARD...SANGAMON AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 250 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TALLULA TO
MORRISONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORRISONVILLE...
PETERSBURG...
SPRINGFIELD...
ATHENS...
ROCHESTER...
KINCAID...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...FARMINGDALE...GLENARM...CURRAN...
SALISBURY...LINCOLNS NEW SALEM AND JEROME.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4008 8999 4007 8948 3951 8905 3948 8902
3943 8903 3936 8954 3952 8954 3952 8967
3994 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0755Z 259DEG 13KT 3993 8986 3945 8948

$$

BAK
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Mar 18 2012, 03:07 AM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,339
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113







QUOTE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...IL...IN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 180641Z - 180815Z

THE BAND OF ONGOING STORMS...EAST OF THE BURLINGTON IA/QUINCY IL AND
ST. LOUIS MO AREAS...APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY A ZONE OF ENHANCED
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY TURNING EASTWARD
ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA. THIS IS ALSO ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...WHICH HAS OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHERE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING MODERATELY LARGE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE. DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONGER VERTICAL
SHEAR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES...AND
LIKELY WILL REMAIN SO AS LONG AS ACTIVITY PERSISTS. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS COULD BE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...AT LEAST INTO THE 09-10Z
TIME FRAME...PERHAPS LONGER...WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
TOWARD THE INDIANA/ILLINOIS BORDER AREA. BUT A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION...BEYOND WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW...IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

..KERR.. 03/18/2012


ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41009076 41379039 41548954 41228887 40798819 39608745
38838758 38278832 38428918 38728971 39969074 41009076


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Mar 18 2012, 03:20 AM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,339
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





Back to bed, amazing how every storm seems to split or dissipate as it reaches me.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Mar 18 2012, 12:12 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,531
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





SPC has added a slight risk area to SE IN/SW OH/N KY. Extended the end date to the 18th and only the OV storms should be discussed here.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:6

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Warnings:0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

3 Pages V   1 2 3 >
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 30th July 2014 - 02:01 AM