March 16th - March 23rd Eastern Canada Warm Spell, Highly unusual warmth in an already mild March Options

[Removed_Member_thehammer_*]

Was pretty cool today to see the temp drop as a cool harbour breeze developed around 4pm. Went from 29 to 22 in about 10 minutes. Then a t-storm popped up to our north and dragged the breeze back around to the south and the temp jumped back up to a muggy 28.

[travis3000]

The Last 10 Daytime Temps In Alliston:
Average Daytime Temp During This Period= 4C

March 13th: 16.1C
March 14th: 17.6C
March 15th: 21.9C
March 16th: 16.3C
March 17th: 18.7C
March 18th: 25C
March 19th: 25.1C
March 20th: 26.2C
March 21st: 27.8C
March 22nd: 24C

This post has been edited by travis3000: Mar 22 2012, 09:26 PM

[bigmt]

Yeah, my car was showing temps of 28°C-29°C around south London today. What's the best guess for t-storm activity on Friday as the cold front passes through. Any chance of storms? Severe storms...?

There's a shot for some storms but it doesn't look like anything really substantial for the moment. Here's the SPC convective outlook for tomorrow which indicates the greatest (but still slight) risk closer to the center of the ULL:

 day2otlk_1730.gif ( 26.8K ) Number of downloads: 1


Let's watch and see what develops for S and SW ON.

[bigmt]

Here's the latest from EC and TWN.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SW..._e.html?prov=on

A huge unprecedented feast of summer in March.

The sizzling maximum temperature of 28.8 c reported in Petawawa
Wednesday is the second highest temperature ever recorded in
Ontario in March. The highest temperature recorded during March was
A midsummer like 29.4 c in Wallaceburg on 26-mar-1921. Interestingly
enough, two short days later on March 28, 1921 many folks must have
been shocked when the temperatures remained just below freezing all
day long.

Normally we are still often feeling the frosty fingers of old man
winter's final presence of the season interspersed with a few
normally mild days of early spring where temperatures get into the
low to mid teens. But instead, words such as humidex, tulips,
Fresh green grass, patio weather, swimming pool opening, and
summerlike warmth are on everybody's lips. Satellite photos and
surface observations indicate that there is no significant
Snow cover left across Southern Ontario.

Below are record maximum temperature records set on Thursday
22-mar-2012. Please refer to the table below for more details.

Location new temperature record previous record

Windsor 28.4 18.8 (2007)
Harrow 23.5 22.2 (1938)
Sarnia 25.5 15.0 (2007)
London 27.5 23.9 (1938)
Delhi 27.3 23.9 (1938)
Kitchener-Waterloo 26.5 21.7 (1938)
Hamilton 26.8 17.8 (1910)
Wiarton 18.3 13.9 (2007)
Toronto downtown 24.3 22.8 (1938)
Toronto Pearson 26.0 24.4 (1938)
Buttonville 26.3 18.4 (1988)
Barrie 24.1 16.0 (1907,1953)
Orillia 24.5 17.2 (1935)
Muskoka 23.7 15.7 (1987)
Peterborough 26.0 24.4 (1938)
Trenton 17.7 16.7 (1953)
Kingston 16.1 12.8 (1949)
Bancroft 22.8 16.5 (1979)
Brockville 24.9 22.8 (1938)
Ottawa 24.9 25.6 (1953,2000)
Ottawa botanical gardens 23.7 15.2 (2000)
Kemptville 24.5 16.7 (1953)

Is winter really over in Toronto?

http://www.theweathernetwork.com

March 22, 2012 — Temperature records have been shattered in the GTA over the last two weeks, and on Thursday Toronto was hotter than it has ever been in March. But how long will it last?

In light of this recent March "heatwave" in sections of Canada, many Torontonians are asking the same question: Should we put away our winter coats for good?

The short answer: No, no yet.

"This stretch of warm March weather has been obliterating records across a large section of Canada and the northern U.S.," says Chris Scott, a meteorologist at The Weather Network. "However, it is only March after all, and we shouldn’t pack the winter clothing completely out of reach."

The previous warmest March’s for Toronto were back in 1945 and 1946. In April of both those years, Toronto saw accumulating snow. Our most recent March flirtation with early spring was two years ago. While April 2010 ended up being quite a mild month overall, we did have a cold snap and a trace of snow across the GTA early in the month.

So, what's ahead?

"It’s back to reality as we head into the weekend," says Scott. "In fact, you’ll probably need the winter coat early next week as some chilly air is ushered in by brisk northerly winds."

Forecasters at The Weather Network say to expect a much more typical roller coaster of temperatures to round out March, meaning you’ll need many different options in the closet to dress for a given day. At this point, they do not see any concrete indications of a snow storm to worry about, but they do happen this time of the year and into early April.

"Remember last year? A year ago (March 23rd, 2011) there was a widespread heavy snowfall across the GTA of 10-15 cm," recalls Scott. "There is nothing like this on the immediate horizon, although we’ll be keeping a close eye on the weather pattern as we head into the start of April for any possible trouble."

Temperatures are expected to fall back to seasonal values as we move into the weekend. For a closer look, be sure to check your local forecast.

[Ryan45]

If any snow falls it'll melt very quick on the surface thanks to the warmup.

[travis3000]

If any snow falls I think it will be brief wet flurries. I doubt anywhere in Southern/Eastern Ontario will see accumulating snowfall. I think some chilly weather is a given, daytime temps in the 3-8C range and overnight lows in the minus 6 to 0C range is very realistic.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Mar 22 2012, 09:28 PM

[an uncanny otter]

It's 11 pm and still 15C here. Unreal.

[TriC]

Ya still warm here 11pm was 18c here in London. still nice weather this week 19c tomorrow and 18c on Sunday

This post has been edited by TriC: Mar 22 2012, 10:17 PM

[bigmt]

Here's the updated list of record highs in ON from yesterday.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SW..._e.html?prov=on

A historic warm spell across Ontario with a plethora of new record
maximum temperatures every day has resulted in a memorable feast
Of early summer. Many locales enjoyed unusually long spells of
4 or 5 days in a row where the temperature reached or exceeded the
20 degree mark.

It appears that this March will likely be the warmest March on
record for some places.

Location new temperature record previous record

Windsor 28.4 18.8 (2007)
Harrow 23.5 22.2 (1938)
Sarnia 25.5 15.0 (2007)
London 27.5 23.9 (1938)
Delhi 27.3 23.9 (1938)
Kitchener-Waterloo 26.5 21.7 (1938)
Hamilton 26.8 17.8 (1910)
Wiarton 18.3 13.9 (2007)
Toronto downtown 24.3 22.8 (1938)
Toronto Pearson 26.0 24.4 (1938)
Buttonville 26.3 18.4 (1988)
Barrie 24.1 16.0 (1907,1953)
Orillia 24.5 17.2 (1935)
Muskoka 23.7 15.7 (1987)
Peterborough 26.0 24.4 (1938)
Trenton 17.7 16.7 (1953)
Kingston 16.1 12.8 (1949)
Bancroft 22.8 16.5 (1979)
Brockville 24.9 22.8 (1938)
Ottawa 24.9 15.6 (1953,2000)
Ottawa botanical gardens 23.7 15.2 (2000)
Kemptville 24.5 16.7 (1953)
Kenora 20.6 16.1 (1945)
Dryden 21.5 14.4 (1945, 1957)
Red Lake 17.0 13.9 (1939)
Ear Falls 18.5 14.0 (2000)
Sioux Lookout 21.2 13.9 (1957)
Atikokan 20.3 18.3 (1945)
Upsala 19.0 14.2 (2000)
Armstrong 16.1 14.0 (2000)
Cameron Falls 15.9 14.4 (2000)
Geraldton 18.5 12.4 (1987)
Kapuskasing 17.8 16.7 (1920)
Timmins 17.9 15.6 (1938)
Wawa 13.6 10.8 (1987)
Chapleau 16.9 14.0 (1987)

This weather summary contains preliminary information and may not
constitute an official or final report.

Personally, I would rank this as one of the most jaw-dropping weather events in my lifetime. It easily competes with (and surpasses in many cases) the 1985 cold wave, the 1988 drought, the 1993 superstorm, the 1998 ice storm, the 2003 European heatwave, the 2005 hurricane season and the winter of 2007-08 for sheer absurdity. I don't expect to see a March like this again for the rest of my days, but of course one can never say never.

[Removed_Member_thehammer_*]

Here's the updated list of record highs in ON from yesterday.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SW..._e.html?prov=on
Personally, I would rank this as one of the most jaw-dropping weather events in my lifetime. It easily competes with (and surpasses in many cases) the 1985 cold wave, the 1988 drought, the 1993 superstorm, the 1998 ice storm, the 2003 European heatwave, the 2005 hurricane season and the winter of 2007-08 for sheer absurdity. I don't expect to see a March like this again for the rest of my days, but of course one can never say never.

Yup...it won't be remembered like those severe events you mention due to the lack of severity or damage, but from a weather perspective, this really was just plain ridiculous. Was crazy to hear people today complaining about "how cold it is!!" when it was 15 degrees on March 23!! Lol

[bigmt]

Cooler air has finally begun to make inroads but a few more records fell by the wayside in ON yesterday.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SW..._e.html?prov=on

Location new temperature record previous record

Sarnia 24.2 18.8 (1988)
Ridgetown 21.3 20.0 (1945)
Muskoka 17.9 15.7 (1987)
Beatrice 18.3 16.0 (1987)
Ottawa 19.3 17.0 (1979)

This post has been edited by bigmt: Mar 24 2012, 06:10 AM

[TheFrenchman]

Cooler air has finally begun to make inroads but a few more records fell by the wayside in ON yesterday.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SW..._e.html?prov=on

I already miss those warm temperatures!! Looking forward it looks pretty chilly or at best normal temps in the long range...

Bigmt: Do you see warmer temps or above normal temps coming back in the east in your crystal ball ?!! I'm afraid it will be cool for quite a time...

[ottawasnowstorm]

Sad that the heat wave is gone but with yesterdays (friday) record high, that was 6 days in a row for record breaking high temperatures in Ottawa. Very cool indeed. And speaking of cooler, while there will be some cooler days ahead, it should only be about normal to a degree or two cooler than average which will really only seem cool compared to what we just went through, but there will still be many days where the temperature will be warmer to much warmer than average such as tomorrow (sunday).

[bigmt]

I already miss those warm temperatures!! Looking forward it looks pretty chilly or at best normal temps in the long range...

Bigmt: Do you see warmer temps or above normal temps coming back in the east in your crystal ball ?!! I'm afraid it will be cool for quite a time...

We won't be seeing blockbuster intense persistent warmth like this again for the foreseeable future, but I wouldn't be surprised to see things average above-normal through the beginning of April. The 12z operational GFS shows quite a different pattern for days 11-15.

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 12zGFS11_15day500mbHeightAnomalyNA.gif ( 31.84K ) Number of downloads: 0


 12zGFS11_15day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 32.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


The ensembles and the European will update later, I'll post what they show and I was thinking of going back through the list of March records that were broken and seeing how the rest of the spring and summer played out in some of those years.

[TheFrenchman]

We won't be seeing blockbuster intense persistent warmth like this again for the foreseeable future, but I wouldn't be surprised to see things average above-normal through the beginning of April. The 12z operational GFS shows quite a different pattern for days 11-15.

 12zgfsnao.gif ( 6.27K ) Number of downloads: 0


 12zGFS11_15day500mbHeightAnomalyNA.gif ( 31.84K ) Number of downloads: 0


 12zGFS11_15day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 32.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


The ensembles and the European will update later, I'll post what they show and I was thinking of going back through the list of March records that were broken and seeing how the rest of the spring and summer played out in some of those years.

This is what I was afraid...!! Cool temps - at or below normal. Temps above 10 C here in Quebec will not be seen again in maybe a few weeks or more ? I just hope that the CFS is right with is warm april...!

[TriC]

Back up to 18c here in London on Wednesday.. 20c in Windsor my willow tree and most trees already have leafs on them.. everything else in the yard the buds are turning into leafs some trees have flowers already in the city.. and I had to cut the grass yesterday as it was getting really long in spots. and its still March..

This post has been edited by TriC: Mar 24 2012, 01:50 PM

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[Ryan45]

Tree's are budding and grass is insanely green. Went to LaSalle for some fishing this afternoon and boy was that East wind a brisk one!