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> March 16th - March 23rd Eastern Canada Warm Spell, Highly unusual warmth in an already mild March
bigmt
post Mar 16 2012, 09:08 AM
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Records seem destined to fall in some areas so perhaps this deserves it's own topic. The warm winter has given way to an exceptionally mild March which will heat up even further through the upcoming week before some cooler air possibly arrives by the weekend of the 24-25th. For the west coast the pattern seems to continue to be cool and wet for this timeframe.

00z GFS ensembles 2m temp anomalies for day 4 (Tue):

Attached File  D4.gif ( 112.26K ) Number of downloads: 1


00z ECMWF ensembles 850mb temp anomalies for days 1-5:

Attached File  00zECMWFENS1_5day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 40.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


00z GFS ensembles, same period:

Attached File  00zENS1_5day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 36.09K ) Number of downloads: 0


00z ECMWF ensembles 850mb temp anomalies for days 6-10:

Attached File  00zECMWFENS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 35.66K ) Number of downloads: 0


00z GFS ensembles, same period:

Attached File  00zENS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 32.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


00z NAEFS temperature anomalies for days 8-14:

Attached File  2012031600_054_007_E1_north_america_I_NAEFS_TEMPERATURE_anomaly_probability_combined_week2_198.png ( 48.05K ) Number of downloads: 0


Global coverage from the NAEFS:

Attached File  2012031600_054_007_E1_global_I_NAEFS_TEMPERATURE_anomaly_probability_combined_week2_198.png ( 62.34K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by bigmt: Mar 21 2012, 07:40 AM
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puttin
post Mar 16 2012, 10:23 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 16 2012, 10:08 AM) *
Records seem destined to fall in some areas so perhaps this deserves it's own topic. The warm winter has given way to an exceptionally mild March which will heat up even further through the upcoming week before some cooler air possibly arrives by the weekend of the 24-25th. For the west coast the pattern seems to continue to be cool and wet for this timeframe.

00z GFS ensembles 2m temp anomalies for day 4 (Tue):

Attached File  D4.gif ( 112.26K ) Number of downloads: 1


00z ECMWF ensembles 850mb temp anomalies for days 1-5:

Attached File  00zECMWFENS1_5day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 40.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


00z GFS ensembles, same period:

Attached File  00zENS1_5day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 36.09K ) Number of downloads: 0

!
00z ECMWF ensembles 850mb temp anomalies for days 6-10:

Attached File  00zECMWFENS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 35.66K ) Number of downloads: 0


00z GFS ensembles, same period:

Attached File  00zENS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 32.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


00z NAEFS temperature anomalies for days 8-14:

Attached File  2012031600_054_007_E1_north_america_I_NAEFS_TEMPERATURE_anomaly_probability_combined_week2_198.png ( 48.05K ) Number of downloads: 0


Global coverage from the NAEFS:

Attached File  2012031600_054_007_E1_global_I_NAEFS_TEMPERATURE_anomaly_probability_combined_week2_198.png ( 62.34K ) Number of downloads: 1





Can ya order in some nice warm air for my birthday at the end of the month? That would be nice! Except I don't count the years, I go by the grey. Thank god for Lululemon and thhose bottles of bleach at Shoppers Drug Mart... have a great weekend all!!!!I burnt dinner last night..... steaks tonight
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JJ Snowlover
post Mar 16 2012, 12:52 PM
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TWN hints at March 24 - 25 as the end of the heatwave. Temps return closer to normal but still above normal at +8 or 9c.

Still need a few of these up coming warm days to get rid of the snow in the woods around here. My BBQ is in the back of the house in the shade and still buried by snow. It's the last place to loose snow in the spring, why oh why did I choose to keep the BBQ there rolleyes.gif

I think Ottawa's trees, grass, bugs, birds etc wont be too confused like they have been in S. Ont. It will only be a week of extra warm temps before back closer to normal. We have no buds on the trees and a half decent snowpack this year(not normal but could have been worse). Our warmest temp so far has been +16c for one afternoon, which isn't completely out of the ordinary for spring...

Still struggling temp at only +6c today, it is supposed to be +11c...
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bigmt
post Mar 16 2012, 04:31 PM
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CPC temp probability map for days 6-10:

Attached File  610temp.new.small.gif ( 65.48K ) Number of downloads: 1


Days 8-14:

Attached File  814temp.new.small.gif ( 63.89K ) Number of downloads: 0


The last frame of today's 12z Euro run shows a shot of cold; we'll see if it hangs on to this idea in future runs:

Attached File  12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 66.77K ) Number of downloads: 0
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stuffradio
post Mar 16 2012, 04:35 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 16 2012, 02:31 PM) *
CPC temp probability map for days 6-10:

Attached File  610temp.new.small.gif ( 65.48K ) Number of downloads: 1


Days 8-14:

Attached File  814temp.new.small.gif ( 63.89K ) Number of downloads: 0


The last frame of today's 12z Euro run shows a shot of cold; we'll see if it hangs on to this idea in future runs:

Attached File  12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 66.77K ) Number of downloads: 0

The only good news is the below normal temp is slowly fading... but it's oh so slow. I have only had maybe two days with one or two C degrees above normal in March. It's been below normal for weeks otherwise... around four to six degrees C below normal, sometimes even more.
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EOsnowmom
post Mar 16 2012, 04:54 PM
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I'm not ready for summer temps yet. JB was tweeting about a cool down, probably the one you're showing above - except he's putting the return to seasonal temps to between April 1 - 15.

Something about a "discontinuous retrogression". I had to look that one up!

Definition of "discontinuous retrogression" http://www.wxonline.info/topics/waves.html
When the wavelength from one long wave trough to the next one downstream becomes excessively large, the downstream trough is often replaced by a new trough that forms farther west than the position of the original downstream trough. In a loop of this situation it appears that the downstream trough suddenly shifts westward or upstream in a discontinuous manner. In reality, a new trough forms.
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TriC
post Mar 16 2012, 05:07 PM
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Well got a sun burn today.. here in London.. was 23c today.. lovin this weather.


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bigmt
post Mar 16 2012, 08:46 PM
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QUOTE(EOsnowmom @ Mar 16 2012, 05:54 PM) *
I'm not ready for summer temps yet. JB was tweeting about a cool down, probably the one you're showing above - except he's putting the return to seasonal temps to between April 1 - 15.

Something about a "discontinuous retrogression". I had to look that one up!

Definition of "discontinuous retrogression" http://www.wxonline.info/topics/waves.html
When the wavelength from one long wave trough to the next one downstream becomes excessively large, the downstream trough is often replaced by a new trough that forms farther west than the position of the original downstream trough. In a loop of this situation it appears that the downstream trough suddenly shifts westward or upstream in a discontinuous manner. In reality, a new trough forms.


We need to look to the 500mb pattern to have an idea of the planetary longwave setup, which involves the alternating series of troughs and ridges which generally divide a colder and stormier pattern from a warmer and quieter one. Here's a look at the operational 12 GFS 6-10 day 500mb anomalies:

Attached File  12zGFS6_10day500mbHeightAnomalyNA.gif ( 37.12K ) Number of downloads: 0


Forward to days 11-15:

Attached File  12zGFS11_15day500mbHeightAnomalyNA.gif ( 36.53K ) Number of downloads: 0


The 12z GFS ensembles show the 500mb pattern for days 11-15:

Attached File  12zENS11_15day500mbHeightAnomalyNA.gif ( 29.9K ) Number of downloads: 0


The longwave pattern is either fairly stagnant or progressive along with the westerly flow, but a retrogresson would imply a setup against that general movement. The trough would appear to 'back in' from the east.

We can see from the GFS that the east is dominated by ridging (warmer) and the west is under the influence of troughing (colder and stormier) in the near-to-midrange term but there are some signs of the downstream trough in the Atlantic appearing to shift westwards compared to the 6-10 day pattern. We'll have to wait and see what the model does as it comes farther into range, as usual.
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Removed_Member_thehammer_*
post Mar 16 2012, 09:54 PM
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I've got a massive tan line on my arms...haha..what a beauty week this has been. Keep er coming.
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Ryan45
post Mar 17 2012, 05:18 AM
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Lol holy *bleep* Ottawa have you checked out your weather network forecast??? Wednesday is 26 feeling like 29!!!:O I am speechless... I have no speech... laugh.gif


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bigmt
post Mar 17 2012, 05:57 AM
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QUOTE(Ryan45 @ Mar 17 2012, 06:18 AM) *
Lol holy *bleep* Ottawa have you checked out your weather network forecast??? Wednesday is 26 feeling like 29!!!:O I am speechless... I have no speech... laugh.gif


You know it's crazy when they've had to adjust the 14-day trend way up beyond the averages and it's still off the chart!

Attached File  twn14ott.jpg ( 87.02K ) Number of downloads: 0


Quite a tumble after that warm spike. I'll add an end date to the thread when one seems reasonable based on the overall pattern.

2 of the record warm March months for the east were 1945 and 1946 (pretty amazing they were back-to-back).

Attached File  StMap_Mar1706_44_498793945312.gif ( 416.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  StMap_Mar1706_45_035020446777.gif ( 416.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


With this pattern they are in danger of being supplanted.
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JJ Snowlover
post Mar 17 2012, 07:22 AM
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QUOTE(Ryan45 @ Mar 17 2012, 05:18 AM) *
Lol holy *bleep* Ottawa have you checked out your weather network forecast??? Wednesday is 26 feeling like 29!!!:O I am speechless... I have no speech... laugh.gif

I seen that this morning, but I'll believe when I see it. Still cold here at 0c. The models last week predicted warmth all this week, but only Monday and Tuesday where warm. Wed was only+7c, Thurs was only 3c and yesterday was only 7c. Nice temps for march, but not what was forecasted earlier.

QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 17 2012, 05:57 AM) *
You know it's crazy when they've had to adjust the 14-day trend way up beyond the averages and it's still off the chart!

Attached File  twn14ott.jpg ( 87.02K ) Number of downloads: 0

With this pattern they are in danger of being supplanted.

Supplanted - had to look that one up bigmt laugh.gif
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Regg
post Mar 17 2012, 08:42 AM
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ishhhhhh... july temps in the middle of march..

And the dam...n Euro is giving me a snow storm for march 25/26th (15cm) - north of MTL .

Waiter, please another coffee (double wiskey), and another run please.
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Removed_Member_thehammer_*
post Mar 17 2012, 08:50 AM
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Just looked at the overnight GFS. large areas of southern and eastern ontario have a legit shot at mid-20s this week. Pure awesome.
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bigmt
post Mar 17 2012, 10:21 AM
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Record March heat continues in parts of Canada

http://www.theweathernetwork.com

QUOTE
Forget winter. It's been looking or feeling much more like spring ... or even summer ... in parts of Canada recently.

Temperatures have been soaring from Saskatchewan to parts of the Maritimes this week, shattering records along the way.

In Toronto, the weather has had people flocking to the nearest patio or driving range.

"The city has had daytime highs above 18 degrees the last four days," says Gina Ressler, a meteorologist at The Weather Network. "That's a good 15-20 degrees above seasonal. It's incredible to see this persist so long."

Temperatures have also been soaring across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. On Friday, places like Weyburn and Estevan had climbed above the 20-degree mark.

It hasn't been as warm in the Maritimes, but double digit temperatures are in the forecast for some this weekend.

So, why the 'March Mildness?'

"It's been unseasonably warm mainly because of a strong ridge in the jet stream over the middle part of North America," says Brian Owsiak, another meteorologist at The Weather Network. "As long as that ridge stays in place, that will mean above seasonal temperatures for many."

And since that ridge has been holding in place, the warm weather isn't going anywhere fast.

"We're expecting this trend to continue to the end of March, more or less," explains Ressler. "If that pans out, it could be the longest stretch of that kind of weather on record for this time of year."


Warmth Returns to New England & Coastal Mid-Atlantic

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...w-england/62881

Attached File  400x266_03170947_thisweekend.jpg ( 26.56K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  400x266_03170948_earlynextweek.jpg ( 32.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
An area of high pressure will slide off the East Coast this weekend sending a surge of milder air into the Northeast and coastal mid-Atlantic.

The pleasant temperatures will be accompanied by brilliant sunshine and little in the way of wind.

The abnormal warmth will continue into much of next week as the area of high pressure remains parked off the East Coast.
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post Mar 17 2012, 01:29 PM
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it amazes me how often EC can butcher a forecast in any season . LOL. Not even close today. Overcast and temps between 8-10 depending on where you are in Hamilton. All day their forecast has said sunny and 21. Let's hope for better results tomorrow.
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an uncanny otter
post Mar 17 2012, 04:42 PM
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QUOTE(thehammer @ Mar 17 2012, 02:29 PM) *
it amazes me how often EC can butcher a forecast in any season . LOL. Not even close today. Overcast and temps between 8-10 depending on where you are in Hamilton. All day their forecast has said sunny and 21. Let's hope for better results tomorrow.
Really? That's very strange. Windsor hit 23 degrees with full sun today.
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Ryan45
post Mar 17 2012, 05:16 PM
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QUOTE(thehammer @ Mar 17 2012, 02:29 PM) *
it amazes me how often EC can butcher a forecast in any season . LOL. Not even close today. Overcast and temps between 8-10 depending on where you are in Hamilton. All day their forecast has said sunny and 21. Let's hope for better results tomorrow.


It toally matters where you are today. I was in oakville today fishing @ bronte and it was insanely foggy all day. Looked like an ugly overcast day & it was REALLY cold down there my hands got numb quickly. We left for burlington and it was so sunny and nice down here it was nuts but as soon as we got close to the lake forget about it. I got pics ill throw up after.

This post has been edited by Ryan45: Mar 17 2012, 05:18 PM


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Removed_Member_thehammer_*
post Mar 17 2012, 08:21 PM
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Looks like Toronto, Brantford and Hamilton all topped out at around 15 degrees today due to Lake Ontario and the morning fog that didn't burn off until 5pm. Lol.
Yea, it sounds like a perfect day from Windsor to London to Lake Huron....a slightly milder, but typical March day here. No complaints though...this week looks beauty. Just would have been nice to have on a Saturday.
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yhm_hamilton
post Mar 17 2012, 08:41 PM
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QUOTE(thehammer @ Mar 17 2012, 02:29 PM) *
it amazes me how often EC can butcher a forecast in any season . LOL. Not even close today. Overcast and temps between 8-10 depending on where you are in Hamilton. All day their forecast has said sunny and 21. Let's hope for better results tomorrow.



Really your getting mad at EC you post a on a weather Forum and you dont know that trying to predict when fog will burn off in march with a NE wind of a cold lake in very challenging. I was not at all suprised that the day went as it did when I woke up at 7:30and saw the fog. Fog its so difficult to fight against when its constantly blowing off a cold lake.

was a disappointed kinda but not really surprised.
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