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> March 16 -? Western Canada Below normal temperatures, Below Normal temperatures and Above normal precipitation
stuffradio
post Mar 16 2012, 10:42 PM
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There is a thread on Eastern Canada having unseasonable warmth. I'm using this thread so I don't keep posting in the Eastern one about Western Canada.

I've had snowfall two or three times this week, hail, thunder, lightning. I just want Sun and seasonable temperatures.

The 18z GFS has the 850 mb temps below 2C the next 16 days and more than 100 mm of rain.



The CPC shows well below normal temps through the end of March.
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bigmt
post Mar 17 2012, 05:51 AM
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The 00z GFS ensembles 2m temp departures for day 14 with many of the members still holding a cold pattern for the west coast, though some not as bad as others the mean is still cooler-than-normal:

Attached File  D14.gif ( 109.15K ) Number of downloads: 1


The CFS v2 continues to show a cool April for a wide swath of W and NW Canada:

Attached File  usT2mMonInd1.gif ( 30.1K ) Number of downloads: 0
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stuffradio
post Mar 17 2012, 04:27 PM
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NAEFS shows above normal temps for the week of the 25th to April 1st.

CPC 8-14 day range shows basically normal temps as can be seen in the first image.

This post has been edited by stuffradio: Mar 17 2012, 04:27 PM
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bigmt
post Mar 18 2012, 09:13 AM
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The 00z GFS ensembles diminish the cold and bring the heart of the warmth further west in the 11-15 day period:

Attached File  00zENS11_15day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 28.05K ) Number of downloads: 0


The 00z operational Euro has milder air for the west coast @ hour 240, but does it have staying power?

Attached File  00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 71.75K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Mar 19 2012, 07:14 AM
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00z NAEFS brings some warmer air westwards in it's 8-14 day temp anomaly outlook:

Attached File  2012031900_054_007_E1_north_america_I_NAEFS_TEMPERATURE_anomaly_probability_combined_week2_198.png ( 47.49K ) Number of downloads: 0


Both the 00z and 06z GFS are stubborn with keeping lower heights for the west in their 11-15 day period:

Attached File  00zGFS11_15day500mbHeightAnomalyNA.gif ( 31.35K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  06zGFS11_15day500mbHeightAnomalyNA.gif ( 30.26K ) Number of downloads: 0
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stuffradio
post Mar 19 2012, 12:10 PM
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Accuweather shows a high of 16 on April 2nd for me, and EC shows a high of 13 with some sun on Saturday.
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EOsnowmom
post Mar 19 2012, 12:29 PM
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Some people have all the luck! Snowfall warning issued for western Saskatchewan.

http://regina.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVN...medium=facebook
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stuffradio
post Mar 20 2012, 12:20 PM
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The 12z is showing 7 C at 850mb for hour 348. That would be nice and warm for us... since I think the rule of thumb is to add about 10C to the 850 mb temperature to get the lower temperature.

I'm not sure how meteostar calculates max and min temps, but they have 15C at hour 180.
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bigmt
post Mar 20 2012, 04:54 PM
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Spiking PNA could help to reverse the cool pattern for the west.

Attached File  pna.sprd2.gif ( 6.42K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  Positive_PNA.jpg ( 14.87K ) Number of downloads: 0
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stuffradio
post Mar 21 2012, 06:09 PM
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18z is incredible at hour 372. 13 degrees 850mb

This post has been edited by stuffradio: Mar 21 2012, 08:53 PM
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bigmt
post Mar 22 2012, 08:05 AM
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Both the 00z GFS and Euro ensembles back the core of heat westwards in the 6-10 day timeframe. It may not make it all the way to the west coast but it should at least drive the cold anomalies away for a while.

Attached File  00zENS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 31.42K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  00zECMWFENS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 34.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


The CPC's temp probability map for days 8-14 seems to agree.

Attached File  814temp.new.small.gif ( 62.69K ) Number of downloads: 0
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stuffradio
post Mar 23 2012, 06:32 PM
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It's a beautiful spring day today. It is actually warm outside at 11-13C with a mostly clear blue sky. Wish we would get this for most of the Spring, but sadly this next week will be rain most of the week I think. At least the temps will be close to normal.
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stuffradio
post Mar 24 2012, 05:36 PM
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Please don't make me go back to the rain. Today and yesterday are perfect days! Today is mild, probably around 14 or 15 C with a clear sky all day! I mowed for the first time this year today.
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bigmt
post Mar 26 2012, 06:29 AM
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The CPC temp probability map from yesterday looks better for days 8-14.

Attached File  814temp.new.small.gif ( 63.72K ) Number of downloads: 1


HPC 5-day precip looks soggy for this week unfortunately.

Attached File  p120i00.gif ( 33.8K ) Number of downloads: 1
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stuffradio
post Mar 27 2012, 01:00 PM
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Still waiting for more favourable conditions. The weather we had this weekend is what I want... but I probably won't get that until May or July. sad.gif
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stuffradio
post Mar 28 2012, 04:16 PM
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CPC showing below normal temps for the 6 to 10 day period with above average precip for 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day period.
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stuffradio
post Mar 29 2012, 01:17 PM
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12z GFS shows 7C at 850mb at hour 300. Hopefully it sticks to that and extends it as a pattern change. Must get out of this 4-6 C below normal temperature pattern and above normal precip...
Seattle could easily have its 4th wettest March on record by Saturday. That's to show you how wet March has been in the PNW.
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bigmt
post Mar 29 2012, 01:47 PM
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00z NAEFS probabilistic temp anomalies for days 8-14:

Attached File  2012032900_054_007_E1_north_america_I_NAEFS_TEMPERATURE_anomaly_probability_combined_week2_198.png ( 47.26K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Mar 30 2012, 07:33 AM
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A couple of the comments in Brett's latest blog are also lamenting the cold & wet conditions.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...st-update/63424

With a combination of a cold PDO and La Nina over the last couple of years, the resulting pattern for the west isn't unexpected.

The SST pattern in the Pacific shows a classic negative PDO anomaly:

Attached File  anomnight.3.29.2012.gif ( 111.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  stormx_01.jpg ( 31.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


One of Brett's blogs from last fall details some of the effects of a -PDO.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...e-impacts/57249

QUOTE
What are some known impacts of the cool phase of the PDO across Canada and the Pacific Northwest?

1. Enhanced snowpack Pacific Northwest and Rockies.

2. Generally cooler and wetter for the Pacific Northwest.

3. Cooler James Bay in the summer.

4. Greater productivity of Chinook and Coho salmon in Oregon rivers.

5. Precipitation and temperature patterns across B.C. are more exacerbated (more extremes) during years when the PDO and the ENSO are in the same phase. Right now, the PDO and ENSO (La Nina) are both in cool phases.

6. Often, cool phase PDO's intensify La Nina events, while moderating El Nino events.


Looking a a number of spring (Mar-May) patterns in a cold PDO phase, we can see how the west is predominantly below-average:

Attached File  209.87.238.157.89.5.30.15.png ( 14.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


The PDO can stay locked in one of the two modes for many years at a time (hence the 'decadal' in Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Have a look at the time series since 1900:

Attached File  800px_PDO.svg.png ( 133.64K ) Number of downloads: 1


It may be that we've entered another long-term negative phase but that doesn't mean that there can't be warm weather for the west and along the coast since there are obvious +PDO periods embedded within the overall negative regime. The PDO is just one factor amongst many, although it is an important one to consider when looking at expected conditions for Western Canada (and the country as a whole to a lesser extent). If we do see an El Nino event develop through this year it could help to bring warmer and drier weather for the west although it could be somewhat muted from the ongoing -PDO in intensity.

The CFS v2 continues to give hope through the late spring-early summer timeframe:

Attached File  usT2mSeaInd2.gif ( 27.21K ) Number of downloads: 0
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stuffradio
post Mar 31 2012, 03:13 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 30 2012, 05:33 AM) *
A couple of the comments in Brett's latest blog are also lamenting the cold & wet conditions.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...st-update/63424

With a combination of a cold PDO and La Nina over the last couple of years, the resulting pattern for the west isn't unexpected.

The SST pattern in the Pacific shows a classic negative PDO anomaly:

Attached File  anomnight.3.29.2012.gif ( 111.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  stormx_01.jpg ( 31.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


One of Brett's blogs from last fall details some of the effects of a -PDO.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...e-impacts/57249
Looking a a number of spring (Mar-May) patterns in a cold PDO phase, we can see how the west is predominantly below-average:

Attached File  209.87.238.157.89.5.30.15.png ( 14.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


The PDO can stay locked in one of the two modes for many years at a time (hence the 'decadal' in Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Have a look at the time series since 1900:

Attached File  800px_PDO.svg.png ( 133.64K ) Number of downloads: 1


It may be that we've entered another long-term negative phase but that doesn't mean that there can't be warm weather for the west and along the coast since there are obvious +PDO periods embedded within the overall negative regime. The PDO is just one factor amongst many, although it is an important one to consider when looking at expected conditions for Western Canada (and the country as a whole to a lesser extent). If we do see an El Nino event develop through this year it could help to bring warmer and drier weather for the west although it could be somewhat muted from the ongoing -PDO in intensity.

The CFS v2 continues to give hope through the late spring-early summer timeframe:

Attached File  usT2mSeaInd2.gif ( 27.21K ) Number of downloads: 0

CPC is looking good for warmer temps and lower precip in the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks!
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