March 16 -? Western Canada Below normal temperatures, Below Normal temperatures and Above normal precipitation Options

[stuffradio]

There is a thread on Eastern Canada having unseasonable warmth. I'm using this thread so I don't keep posting in the Eastern one about Western Canada.

I've had snowfall two or three times this week, hail, thunder, lightning. I just want Sun and seasonable temperatures.

The 18z GFS has the 850 mb temps below 2C the next 16 days and more than 100 mm of rain.



The CPC shows well below normal temps through the end of March.

[bigmt]

The 00z GFS ensembles 2m temp departures for day 14 with many of the members still holding a cold pattern for the west coast, though some not as bad as others the mean is still cooler-than-normal:

 D14.gif ( 109.15K ) Number of downloads: 1


The CFS v2 continues to show a cool April for a wide swath of W and NW Canada:

 usT2mMonInd1.gif ( 30.1K ) Number of downloads: 0

[stuffradio]

NAEFS shows above normal temps for the week of the 25th to April 1st.

CPC 8-14 day range shows basically normal temps as can be seen in the first image.

This post has been edited by stuffradio: Mar 17 2012, 04:27 PM

[bigmt]

The 00z GFS ensembles diminish the cold and bring the heart of the warmth further west in the 11-15 day period:

 00zENS11_15day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 28.05K ) Number of downloads: 0


The 00z operational Euro has milder air for the west coast @ hour 240, but does it have staying power?

 00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 71.75K ) Number of downloads: 0

[bigmt]

00z NAEFS brings some warmer air westwards in it's 8-14 day temp anomaly outlook:

 2012031900_054_007_E1_north_america_I_NAEFS_TEMPERATURE_anomaly_probability_combined_week2_198.png ( 47.49K ) Number of downloads: 0


Both the 00z and 06z GFS are stubborn with keeping lower heights for the west in their 11-15 day period:

 00zGFS11_15day500mbHeightAnomalyNA.gif ( 31.35K ) Number of downloads: 0


 06zGFS11_15day500mbHeightAnomalyNA.gif ( 30.26K ) Number of downloads: 0

[stuffradio]

Accuweather shows a high of 16 on April 2nd for me, and EC shows a high of 13 with some sun on Saturday.

[EOsnowmom]

Some people have all the luck! Snowfall warning issued for western Saskatchewan.

http://regina.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVN...medium=facebook

[stuffradio]

The 12z is showing 7 C at 850mb for hour 348. That would be nice and warm for us... since I think the rule of thumb is to add about 10C to the 850 mb temperature to get the lower temperature.

I'm not sure how meteostar calculates max and min temps, but they have 15C at hour 180.

[bigmt]

Spiking PNA could help to reverse the cool pattern for the west.

 pna.sprd2.gif ( 6.42K ) Number of downloads: 0


 Positive_PNA.jpg ( 14.87K ) Number of downloads: 0

[stuffradio]

18z is incredible at hour 372. 13 degrees 850mb

This post has been edited by stuffradio: Mar 21 2012, 08:53 PM

[bigmt]

Both the 00z GFS and Euro ensembles back the core of heat westwards in the 6-10 day timeframe. It may not make it all the way to the west coast but it should at least drive the cold anomalies away for a while.

 00zENS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 31.42K ) Number of downloads: 0


 00zECMWFENS6_10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif ( 34.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


The CPC's temp probability map for days 8-14 seems to agree.

 814temp.new.small.gif ( 62.69K ) Number of downloads: 0

[stuffradio]

It's a beautiful spring day today. It is actually warm outside at 11-13C with a mostly clear blue sky. Wish we would get this for most of the Spring, but sadly this next week will be rain most of the week I think. At least the temps will be close to normal.

[stuffradio]

Please don't make me go back to the rain. Today and yesterday are perfect days! Today is mild, probably around 14 or 15 C with a clear sky all day! I mowed for the first time this year today.

[bigmt]

The CPC temp probability map from yesterday looks better for days 8-14.

 814temp.new.small.gif ( 63.72K ) Number of downloads: 1


HPC 5-day precip looks soggy for this week unfortunately.

 p120i00.gif ( 33.8K ) Number of downloads: 1

[stuffradio]

Still waiting for more favourable conditions. The weather we had this weekend is what I want... but I probably won't get that until May or July.

[stuffradio]

CPC showing below normal temps for the 6 to 10 day period with above average precip for 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day period.

[stuffradio]

12z GFS shows 7C at 850mb at hour 300. Hopefully it sticks to that and extends it as a pattern change. Must get out of this 4-6 C below normal temperature pattern and above normal precip...
Seattle could easily have its 4th wettest March on record by Saturday. That's to show you how wet March has been in the PNW.

[bigmt]

00z NAEFS probabilistic temp anomalies for days 8-14:

 2012032900_054_007_E1_north_america_I_NAEFS_TEMPERATURE_anomaly_probability_combined_week2_198.png ( 47.26K ) Number of downloads: 0

[bigmt]

A couple of the comments in Brett's latest blog are also lamenting the cold & wet conditions.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...st-update/63424

With a combination of a cold PDO and La Nina over the last couple of years, the resulting pattern for the west isn't unexpected.

The SST pattern in the Pacific shows a classic negative PDO anomaly:

 anomnight.3.29.2012.gif ( 111.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


 stormx_01.jpg ( 31.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


One of Brett's blogs from last fall details some of the effects of a -PDO.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...e-impacts/57249

What are some known impacts of the cool phase of the PDO across Canada and the Pacific Northwest?

1. Enhanced snowpack Pacific Northwest and Rockies.

2. Generally cooler and wetter for the Pacific Northwest.

3. Cooler James Bay in the summer.

4. Greater productivity of Chinook and Coho salmon in Oregon rivers.

5. Precipitation and temperature patterns across B.C. are more exacerbated (more extremes) during years when the PDO and the ENSO are in the same phase. Right now, the PDO and ENSO (La Nina) are both in cool phases.

6. Often, cool phase PDO's intensify La Nina events, while moderating El Nino events.

Looking a a number of spring (Mar-May) patterns in a cold PDO phase, we can see how the west is predominantly below-average:

 209.87.238.157.89.5.30.15.png ( 14.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


The PDO can stay locked in one of the two modes for many years at a time (hence the 'decadal' in Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Have a look at the time series since 1900:

 800px_PDO.svg.png ( 133.64K ) Number of downloads: 1


It may be that we've entered another long-term negative phase but that doesn't mean that there can't be warm weather for the west and along the coast since there are obvious +PDO periods embedded within the overall negative regime. The PDO is just one factor amongst many, although it is an important one to consider when looking at expected conditions for Western Canada (and the country as a whole to a lesser extent). If we do see an El Nino event develop through this year it could help to bring warmer and drier weather for the west although it could be somewhat muted from the ongoing -PDO in intensity.

The CFS v2 continues to give hope through the late spring-early summer timeframe:

 usT2mSeaInd2.gif ( 27.21K ) Number of downloads: 0

[stuffradio]

A couple of the comments in Brett's latest blog are also lamenting the cold & wet conditions.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...st-update/63424

With a combination of a cold PDO and La Nina over the last couple of years, the resulting pattern for the west isn't unexpected.

The SST pattern in the Pacific shows a classic negative PDO anomaly:

 anomnight.3.29.2012.gif ( 111.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


 stormx_01.jpg ( 31.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


One of Brett's blogs from last fall details some of the effects of a -PDO.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...e-impacts/57249
Looking a a number of spring (Mar-May) patterns in a cold PDO phase, we can see how the west is predominantly below-average:

 209.87.238.157.89.5.30.15.png ( 14.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


The PDO can stay locked in one of the two modes for many years at a time (hence the 'decadal' in Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Have a look at the time series since 1900:

 800px_PDO.svg.png ( 133.64K ) Number of downloads: 1


It may be that we've entered another long-term negative phase but that doesn't mean that there can't be warm weather for the west and along the coast since there are obvious +PDO periods embedded within the overall negative regime. The PDO is just one factor amongst many, although it is an important one to consider when looking at expected conditions for Western Canada (and the country as a whole to a lesser extent). If we do see an El Nino event develop through this year it could help to bring warmer and drier weather for the west although it could be somewhat muted from the ongoing -PDO in intensity.

The CFS v2 continues to give hope through the late spring-early summer timeframe:

 usT2mSeaInd2.gif ( 27.21K ) Number of downloads: 0

CPC is looking good for warmer temps and lower precip in the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks!