March 19-23 Plains/MW Flooding, Last Minute Forecast and OBS Options

[WEATHERFAN100]

Along with severe wx threat, flooding appears likely for many regions across the Plains and MW starting on Monday.

latest 5 day qpf...shows up to 8 inches of rain!



note: dates may need adjustments.

This post has been edited by WEATHERFAN100: Mar 18 2012, 06:18 PM

[WEATHERFAN100]

Excessive rainfall day 2:


Excessive rainfall day 3:


Flood outlook March 18-23:


All graphics as of 7:20 PM 3/18/12.

All graphics provided by the HPC.

[jdrenken]

Unreal looking at the HPC QPF KML Files.

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[WEATHERFAN100]

Unreal looking at the HPC QPF KML Files.

Crazy graident between lighter and very hefty totals being shown there. Wow!

[jdrenken]

Last time I remember seeing this in the Plains/MW was with Ike.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
257 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

...VALID 06Z MON MAR 19 2012 - 12Z TUE MAR 20 2012...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 E LHB 35 S 3T5 55 SSE SSF 15 ESE COT 25 WNW COT 10 SW UVA
30 ESE ECU 35 NW 6R9 RPH 10 N SNL 30 WNW RVS 15 E UKL OJC
10 NNE LXT 15 NW SZL 20 SSW SZL 15 NE ROG 15 SSE FYV 15 NE LBR
15 E LHB.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE MWL 20 N ADH 20 NW GCM 10 ESE CFV 30 WNW JLN 15 N JLN
20 ENE JLN 25 N ROG FSM 10 E SLR 15 SE CRS 15 NE AUS 20 WSW AUS
10 NW BMQ 20 E 7F9 10 SE MWL.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE TQH JSV 35 NNE PRX GVT 10 W LNC INJ
F18 20 NW DUA 25 NNW MLC 10 S GCM 20 W GMJ GMJ 20 ESE TQH.


...NCNTRL TX/SCNTRL OK...
LATEST GUID IS MOVG TWD HVIER RNFL AMTS THRU THIS REGION...WITH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING IN THE LAST 8-12 HOURS OF THE FCST
PD. SREF/GEFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF 3+ INCH RNFL ARE SHOWING MORE
MEMBERS THAN EARLIER RUNS...AND THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLE 2+ INCH
SPAGHETTI PLOTS HAVE GONE FM NEARLY ZERO TO ARND 20 MEMBERS.
THEREFORE...THINK THERE IS A CHANCE FOR VRY HVY RNFL LATER MON
AFTN THRU THE REGION WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A THREAT FOR RNFL
EXCEEDING THE HIER FFG THRU THE REGION. HAVE THEREFORE...INCREASED
THREAT TO SLIGHT RISK. TROPICAL MSTR CONTS TO FEED NWD FM THE
EPAC/CARIBBEAN AND THE LATEST SATL DERIVED PW LOOPS SHOWS SOME
SUPPORT FOR EVEN DEEPER MSTR WORKING NWD THRU THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...BUT THIS PROBABLY WILL NOT GET INTO THE REGION UNTIL
AFTER THIS FCST PD. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER MOIST SOUNDINGS WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPES THAT
WL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RNFL RATES. MDL FCST PROPAGATION VECTORS
ARE INDICATING VRY SLOW OVERALL MOTION ON MONDAY AS CELLS RACE TWD
THE NNE AND REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS INTO THE INCRSG AXIS OF STG MSTR
FLUX/THERMAL RIDGING THRU THE REGION. UPR FLOW WL BE STRONGLY
DIFL...WITH ENTRANCE REGION UPR JET DVRG DEVELOPING ON MON BETWEEN
THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET AND A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...AS THE FIRST OF MANY UPR JET STREAKS IMPACT THE REGION. RNFL
RATES OF 1-2 INCH PER HR SHLD BE COMMON INTO MON AFTN WITH LCL 3-4
INCH TOTALS IN 12 HRS. THIS WL BE A MULTI-DAY EVENT..SO EVEN HVIER
RAINS ARE LIKELY BEYOND THIS DAY 1 FCST.

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[jdrenken]

[jdrenken]

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
316 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

...VALID 18Z MON MAR 19 2012 - 00Z WED MAR 21 2012...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ESE WLD 25 NW EMP 20 SSW AFK 10 SE DNS 20 ESE CIN 15 S DSM
30 NE CDJ 15 W AIZ 40 E SGF BPK 30 SSE FLP 25 NW LZK 30 NNW ELD
POE 20 S KVBS 35 WNW KEMK 25 S KBQX 20 W 5R5 40 SSE SSF
15 ESE HDO T82 10 W 7F9 30 NNE RPH 15 W PVJ 15 SSE SWO
20 ESE WLD.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
LUD 20 ESE SNL 35 W PPF 20 N TOP ICL 10 ESE CSQ CDJ 40 NNW SGF
20 SE HRO 15 W RUE 20 S TXK 30 NNE JAS 30 SSW JAS 20 ENE IAH
10 SE CLL 25 E HYI 20 NW HYI 25 N BMQ 15 ESE SEP LUD.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW CNU OJC 35 WSW SZL 30 WNW SGF 20 WSW HRO 35 ESE FSM
25 S DEQ 4F4 15 NNE PSN 25 S CRS 20 NE ACT 10 NNW INJ 10 SE DTO
15 WSW OKM 20 NW CNU.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FYV 15 N DEQ 25 E LBR 15 WNW 4F4
10 ENE CRS 10 SSW JWY DAL 10 SW DUA 20 NNW MLC 20 S GCM 10 N GMJ
25 N VBT 15 S FYV.


...EASTERN TX/OK/KS/IA INTO WRN MO/AR/LA...


THE ANTICIPATED MULTI-DAY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CENTRAL-LOWER PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS NOW UNDERWAY. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER TODAY ACROSS AND HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HVY
AMTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN TX/OK/ERN KS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD FURTHER TO THE N DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NERN TX/ERN OK/WRN AR...WITH DEEP SLY FLOW TO THE E OF THE
EVOLVING CLOSED LOW/UPR TROF MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...DRAWING
AMPLE MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEX...WHILE STRONG LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR
JET SUPPLY THE NECESSARY LIFT. HVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE
ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW BECOMES MORE DETACHED FROM THE WESTERLIES
AND IS FURTHER HINDERED FROM MOVING EWD BY THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED EVENT AS THE STRONG
MOISTURE FLUX/FORCING PERSIST. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OVER NERN
TX/ERN OK/WRN AR WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HVY/EXCESSIVE RAINS. WIDESPREAD 2-4"+ PCPN AMTS DEPICTED DAY 1 OVR
ERN TX..ERN OK INTO FAR SERN KS/SWRN MO/WRN AR/NWRN LA.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MAX PCPN AMTS INVOF NERN TX TO ERN
OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AMTS IN THE 4-6" RANGE.

PEREIRA

[WEATHERFAN100]

Already 2 roads closed in Tulsa- due to flooding.

pic from KTUL.com



Article

[Snow____]

Will this spread east over time or stay confined to the plains and midwest?

[jdrenken]

Will this spread east over time or stay confined to the plains and midwest?

It will loose the flooding aspects as it moves East.

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
834 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
HASKELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 230 AM CDT TUESDAY

* AT 827 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE FROM NORTH OF VIAN
TO TAHLEQUAH TO WEST OF SCRAPER MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 50
MPH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WERE LOCATED
EAST OF QUINTON TO MUSKOGEE...ALSO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
50 MPH. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER WESTERN HASKELL...
SOUTHEAST MUSKOGEE...FAR WESTERN SEQUOYAH AND CENTRAL CHEROKEE
COUNTY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
STIGLER...TAHLEQUAH...BRAGGS...BRIARTOWN...BRUSHY LAKE STATE
PARK...BUNCH...CHEROKEE LANDING STATE PARK...CHRISTIE...COOKSON...
ELDON...GORE...GREENLEAF STATE PARK...KEOTA...KINTA...LAKE
TENKILLER STATE PARK...LEQUIRE...MARBLE CITY...MCCURTAIN...PORUM...
PROCTOR...PUMPKIN CENTER...SCRAPER...TAMAHA...VIAN...WARNER...
WEBBERS FALLS AND WHITEFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO
UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY
MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

[WeatherMonger]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 200246Z - 200445Z

HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN
LIKELY INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE HIGHER RATES ARE EXPECTED FROM
S-CNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL TX INCLUDING THE HILL COUNTRY.

EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN TX
SWWD THROUGH SCNTRL AND SWRN TX EAST OF DEL RIO. NERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT TREND HAS BEEN FOR
THIS FEATURE TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...ESPECIALLY ALONG SWRN
PORTIONS. DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE
BOUNDARY WITH CONVECTION BACKBUILDING SWWD TO NEAR THE MEXICAN
BORDER. WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST AND THE
TENDENCY FOR MID-UPPER FLOW TO BACK WITH TIME...STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TRAINING NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN
INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AS THE STORMS TRAIN NEWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

..DIAL.. 03/20/2012


ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

[jdrenken]

Jim Cantore ‏ @JimCantore

4"per HOUR rainfall rates southwest of Kerrville, TX!! http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?p...WX&loop=yes #TXwx

[jdrenken]

Already 2 roads closed in Tulsa- due to flooding.

pic from KTUL.com



Article

A saw a video of that as it happened. Unreal how people just forget the basic rule of "Turn around, don't drown."

[jdrenken]

[WEATHERFAN100]

Flooding likely or already occuring in widespread area.

[Undertakerson]

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState....rodtype=special

Recent Special Weather Statements for ArkLaTex

[jdrenken]

The "Lake" area to my SW in a Flood Warning...

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
439 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

MOC029-059-105-131-141-169-211600-
/O.CON.KSGF.FA.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120321T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/
CAMDEN MO-LACLEDE MO-MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-PULASKI MO-DALLAS MO-
439 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR SMALL
STREAMS IN CAMDEN...DALLAS...LACLEDE...MILLER...MORGAN AND PULASKI
COUNTIES...

AT 432 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF
TWO TO THREE INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.

RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS
AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS
OF FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE HH IN TUSCUMBIA...
ROUTE C NORTH OF BUFFALO AT LINDLEY CREEK...
HIGHWAY 32 EAST OF BUFFALO AT GREASY CREEK...
ROUTE O AT JONES CREEK JUST SOUTH OF DIXON...
ROUTE H...3 MILES NORTHWEST OF STOUTLAND.

LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MODERATE AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

ROUTE U IN NORTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTY REMAINS CLOSED THIS MORNING
DUE TO HIGH WATER.