Long Range Summer 2012 Outlooks, Forecast and Trends Options

[mike82140]

wxoutlooks blog post for NYC...

Odd question but, what does the N stand for?

[jdrenken]

Odd question but, what does the N stand for?

'N' stands for 'Normal'.

[jdrenken]

It looks like the JAMSTEC will be updated today. I've looked at the website and April is an option, but the picture isn't coming up.

[WEATHERFREAK]

Well it looks like An east-based(traditional) El Nino is comin' as opposed to an El Nino Mokiki!





CFSv1 is weaker but keep in mind it is being discontinued in June.

This post has been edited by WEATHERFREAK: Apr 16 2012, 09:18 AM

[stuffradio]

What does an East Based El Nino look like?

[jdrenken]

[Niyologist]

Well it looks like An east-based(traditional) El Nino is comin' as opposed to an El Nino Modoki!





CFSv1 is weaker but keep in mind it is being discontinued in June.

Fixed.

[Niyologist]

Still looking like a Cooler Summer for the NE/MD-ATL. Didn't the EURO Monthlies show this before?

[jdrenken]

Still looking like a Cooler Summer for the NE/MD-ATL. Didn't the EURO Monthlies show this before?

I guess "cooler than last year" would work. However, not the cold that was being hyped.

Brett Anderson Blog

The updated ECMWF long range seasonal forecast was released yesterday. In addition to the temperature and rainfall anomaly forecast for the summer, the model also shows......

1. ENSO phase shifting to weak/moderate El Nino by the end of summer according to its ensemble forecast.

2. Below-normal tropical activity in the central Atlantic (less Cape Verde storms), but slightly above normal activity off the Southeast U.S. coast as storms may form not too far off the coast instead of long tracking ones that form over the central Atlantic.

3. Above-normal temperatures over eastern North America for the first half of Fall.

[stuffradio]

I guess "cooler than last year" would work. However, not the cold that was being hyped.

Brett Anderson Blog

I always get colder summers. Last year, the first week of July was alright, then it was bad most of July. August was alright. September 30th was the hottest day last year. I got 30C on September 30th. Switching back to Fahrenheit, most of the Summer was spent in the 60's and reaching 70 F from time to time with a lot of clouds and rain.

[WEATHERFREAK]

Above-normal temperatures over eastern North America for the first half of Fall.

This seems a bit suspect imho...

El Nino's typically feature troughing by then.

[VASnowstormHunte...]

This seems a bit suspect imho...

El Nino's typically feature troughing by then.

***** My one comment on this since this is a summer thread and not a fall/winter thread *****

Nah, that seems down the middle honestly. I wouldnt expect a winter-esque El Nino pattern ( trough south of Alaska, ridge in the west, trough in the east ) until late October on.

Summer definitely, but early fall as well ( Sept to Late Oct ), should be warmer than normal... which Im perfectly fine with as long as winter is more exciting than watching the grass grow in January

[VASnowstormHunte...]

Well it looks like An east-based(traditional) El Nino is comin' as opposed to an El Nino Mokiki!





CFSv1 is weaker but keep in mind it is being discontinued in June.

Dont see where you are getting the east-based here since both charts are of the Nino 3.4 region which is a central / western region.

Not to mention ( I remember this same exact argument from last year at this time ), its WAYYYYYY TOO EARLY to begin to discuss east vs. central vs. west based anything. That discussion is usually started in August or September at the earliest.

[NYCSuburbs]

This seems a bit suspect imho...

El Nino's typically feature troughing by then.

This statement is too generalized. It would be almost like saying "La Ninas bring warm winters to the East", which last winter proved is not always true.

[WEATHERFREAK]

Dont see where you are getting the east-based here since both charts are of the Nino 3.4 region which is a central / western region.

Not to mention ( I remember this same exact argument from last year at this time ), its WAYYYYYY TOO EARLY to begin to discuss east vs. central vs. west based anything. That discussion is usually started in August or September at the earliest.

True...But the vast majority of models were forecasting Neutral conditions by this time last year(other then those few outliers). Plus in 2009, the warm anomalies started over the central pacific and tried but failed to fully reach the South American coastline(that year, the Peruvian Currant was stronger). I know it is too early to tell but it appears the warm anomalies this year are starting off the coast of Ecuador.

[jdrenken]

True...But the vast majority of models were forecasting Neutral conditions by this time last year(other then those few outliers). Plus in 2009, the warm anomalies started over the central pacific and tried but failed to fully reach the South American coastline(that year, the Peruvian Currant was stronger). I know it is too early to tell but it appears the warm anomalies this year are starting off the coast of Ecuador.

If you are using models from last year to verify whether it's east based, you are missing the point and 2009 has nothing to do with what's happening now.

[jdrenken]

TWC's May-July outlook...

The combination of an emerging El Nino event, expectations for relatively muted levels of atmospheric blocking and cooler North Atlantic ocean temperatures, all suggest a milder summer, especially in those areas of the southern U.S. that have been plagued by hot summers in recent years. We are predicting that the year-over-year change in summer temperatures will be particularly noticeable in the Texas-based ERCOT power region, which suffered through a brutally hot and dry summer last year. We expect the warmest summer temperatures, relative to normal, to be found across parts of the north-central US this summer. Finally, the oncoming El Nino event suggests that the warmest part of the summer is more likely to be early, with generally cooler temperatures later in the summer.

[stuffradio]

TWC's May-July outlook...

Why do I always have to be colder than normal?

[ILStormwatcher]

Summer 2012 First Look

Summer 2012 Is looking like another scorcher for a large portion of the country with drought conditions persisting in parts of the southwest, with developing/expanding drought into the plains states and the Ozark region. The southeast on the other hand can expect improving conditions with their drought and impacts easing as the La Nina pattern breaks up and allows the rains to return, the tropics will also have to be watched as well, as depending on the position of the upper level ridge in the center of the nation will determine whether locally 'home grown' storms will wander towards the coast, or slide harmlessly off to sea.

The Northeast can expect slightly cooler then normal temperatures this Summer along with near average rainfall as a trough of low pressure will have a tendency to want to linger around in this part of the country. In the Plains and Heartland is where the core of the summer heat looks to exist, especially between Denver, CO to St. Louis, MO, south to Oklahoma City, OK, and north into the Sioux Falls, SD. Temperatures here will for the most part be consistently in the mid to upper 90s, with multiple chances for 100+ degree days especially in Kansas, Oklahoma, and southern Nebraska, into western Missouri. Heat Indexes will top 110 or greater on multiple afternoons, and rainfall will be very hard to come by thanks to a strong upper level ridge that's expected to dominate the weather pattern over the region from the Mississippi River, west to the Front Range Rockies.

In between the cooler conditions in the northeast and boiling hot conditions of the plains will be a zone of potentially dangerous thunderstorms that will ride the ridge into the western Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic states. Damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall will be the main threats with these systems, but some tornadoes are also possible especially in the Ohio Valley. Temperatures in this area are expected to be quite warm to periodically hot, but there will be occasional back door cold fronts to bring some relief from time to time, but it will be quite humid. North of the heat core will be an area of general to strong T-Storms across the far northern plains, closer to the jet stream. Temperatures here will be somewhat above normal.

Into the West, an average Monsoon season is expected along with the typically warm to hot conditions that are typical of this region of the nation, although the Pacific States, especially Oregon, and Washington look to have a normal Summer in terms of temps and precipitation. California will be hot in the interior away from the coast, but seasonably mild to cool along the immediate coastline. Precipitation in California looks quite dry, but that's typical for this region this time of year, so no specially indicator is needed for that.

[jdrenken]

Summer 2012 First Look

Summer 2012 Is looking like another scorcher for a large portion of the country with drought conditions persisting in parts of the southwest, with developing/expanding drought into the plains states and the Ozark region. The southeast on the other hand can expect improving conditions with their drought and impacts easing as the La Nina pattern breaks up and allows the rains to return, the tropics will also have to be watched as well, as depending on the position of the upper level ridge in the center of the nation will determine whether locally 'home grown' storms will wander towards the coast, or slide harmlessly off to sea.

The Northeast can expect slightly cooler then normal temperatures this Summer along with near average rainfall as a trough of low pressure will have a tendency to want to linger around in this part of the country. In the Plains and Heartland is where the core of the summer heat looks to exist, especially between Denver, CO to St. Louis, MO, south to Oklahoma City, OK, and north into the Sioux Falls, SD. Temperatures here will for the most part be consistently in the mid to upper 90s, with multiple chances for 100+ degree days especially in Kansas, Oklahoma, and southern Nebraska, into western Missouri. Heat Indexes will top 110 or greater on multiple afternoons, and rainfall will be very hard to come by thanks to a strong upper level ridge that's expected to dominate the weather pattern over the region from the Mississippi River, west to the Front Range Rockies.

In between the cooler conditions in the northeast and boiling hot conditions of the plains will be a zone of potentially dangerous thunderstorms that will ride the ridge into the western Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic states. Damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall will be the main threats with these systems, but some tornadoes are also possible especially in the Ohio Valley. Temperatures in this area are expected to be quite warm to periodically hot, but there will be occasional back door cold fronts to bring some relief from time to time, but it will be quite humid. North of the heat core will be an area of general to strong T-Storms across the far northern plains, closer to the jet stream. Temperatures here will be somewhat above normal.

Into the West, an average Monsoon season is expected along with the typically warm to hot conditions that are typical of this region of the nation, although the Pacific States, especially Oregon, and Washington look to have a normal Summer in terms of temps and precipitation. California will be hot in the interior away from the coast, but seasonably mild to cool along the immediate coastline. Precipitation in California looks quite dry, but that's typical for this region this time of year, so no specially indicator is needed for that.

Looks pretty close to your fall forecast from last year.