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> Long Range Summer 2012 Outlooks, Forecast and Trends
ILStormwatcher
post May 5 2012, 02:10 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 5 2012, 01:02 PM) *
Looks pretty close to your fall forecast from last year.


Theres similarities, but only one month in my 2011 Autumn forecast had such a pattern, not the entire autumn, though autumn and the winter did bear much more warmer then my forecast as well as that of others.

The differences are the Jet Stream will be somewhat farther north, and the core of the heat will be a bit more north as well, while storm areas remain between the battle zones of the cooler air in the northeast and the hotter air of the plains, as this is generally a typical pattern for storms cross the country this time of year.

So in summary, this summer will be similar to 2011, but the southeast will be wetter and the drought will shift west and north some, along with the worst of the heat, and the northeast will be a bit cooler then last year, but will still average at or slightly below normal.
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New England Stor...
post May 5 2012, 10:10 PM
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QUOTE(ILStormwatcher @ May 5 2012, 03:10 PM) *
Theres similarities, but only one month in my 2011 Autumn forecast had such a pattern, not the entire autumn, though autumn and the winter did bear much more warmer then my forecast as well as that of others.

The differences are the Jet Stream will be somewhat farther north, and the core of the heat will be a bit more north as well, while storm areas remain between the battle zones of the cooler air in the northeast and the hotter air of the plains, as this is generally a typical pattern for storms cross the country this time of year.

So in summary, this summer will be similar to 2011, but the southeast will be wetter and the drought will shift west and north some, along with the worst of the heat, and the northeast will be a bit cooler then last year, but will still average at or slightly below normal.

The north east could do well with a cooler summer, I might be a weather noob when it comes to the long range, but the trough that you speak of "hanging around" could also bring rain? Would be great to ward off the drought.


--------------------
Weather 2012-2013
Oct 28-29 Sandy Gust to 60MPH
Oct 29 Thunder storms
Dec 29 2.8 inch of snow
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jdrenken
post May 17 2012, 03:05 PM
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Latest from IRI...

Temps


Precip


CPC

Temps


Precip


INI Mid-May ENSO forecast


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Hertz
post May 17 2012, 07:09 PM
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The two actually look amazingly similar to each other. It had been so incredibly warm just about anywhere in the US lately that I don't see anywhere I could rule out a hot summer. Yet these aren't the only venues that don't support the spread of heat through the whole country this coming season. Even the Global Prediction Center which was pretty bullish in March and April cooled some in its May update. TCC Japan just updated today also and isn't all that hot either, especially Northeast/eastern Midwest. Yet not everyone is sold on a milder summer - Steve D from nynjpa has been pretty bullish with heat in his summer forecast (per his Long Range thoughts). He thinks the unprecedented warmth in the US as of late is because of the record cold stratosphere (I actually wish I knew where I could get a historical chart of stratospheric temps to get a good look at this). But his argument is a cold stratospheric creates a feedback in enhancing 500mb heights, leading to stronger ridges and weaker/more transient dips in the jet stream. We'll see what happens.

This post has been edited by Hertz: May 17 2012, 07:11 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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NYCSuburbs
post May 17 2012, 08:32 PM
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QUOTE(Hertz @ May 17 2012, 08:09 PM) *
The two actually look amazingly similar to each other. It had been so incredibly warm just about anywhere in the US lately that I don't see anywhere I could rule out a hot summer. Yet these aren't the only venues that don't support the spread of heat through the whole country this coming season. Even the Global Prediction Center which was pretty bullish in March and April cooled some in its May update. TCC Japan just updated today also and isn't all that hot either, especially Northeast/eastern Midwest. Yet not everyone is sold on a milder summer - Steve D from nynjpa has been pretty bullish with heat in his summer forecast (per his Long Range thoughts). He thinks the unprecedented warmth in the US as of late is because of the record cold stratosphere (I actually wish I knew where I could get a historical chart of stratospheric temps to get a good look at this). But his argument is a cold stratospheric creates a feedback in enhancing 500mb heights, leading to stronger ridges and weaker/more transient dips in the jet stream. We'll see what happens.

Hard to tell what happens regarding the summer, but at least for the Mid Atlantic and NE regions at this time I'm questioning a hot summer idea. After all, there was still a record cold stratosphere this winter, yet now that it's spring the pattern still isn't colder than average but at least in the NE parts of the US, there's been almost no warmth extremes since March, with plenty of warmth extremes relative to average prior to March. There's definitely going to be heat at times in the summer, but until I see the current pattern change, most of these heat surges will likely have trouble settling down over the East and creating a very warm pattern.
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Hertz
post May 17 2012, 10:22 PM
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I hope he's wrong myself, too. It's pretty clear by al' the outlooks that the country as a whole need be bracing for another toasty summer. But if the (North)east and possibly Mid-Atlantic and maybe back into the eastern Midwest can evade the worst that would be refreshing

While the last two summer have moderated off some come August in the East Coast region, those areas (at least roughly NYC on south) took on some of the most anomalous heat in June and July both years (especially in 2010 and excluding the extreme Southern Plains scorcher last year).

The CWG in Washington DC is calling for another hotter-than-normal summer there but its forecast is shy of what occurred in 2010 and 2011. Of course it seriously underestimated how hot both 2010 and 2011 would be. This is effectively the third straight summer it's forecast temperatures 1 or 2 degrees above normal there but in actuality the last two were much hotter for DC than that. I just hope that if it's on to something, at least it isn't underestimating again this time.

And the other silver lining there is that every analog year it mentions went on to later produce at least two colder-than-average months in the November-January period that followed. But that of course is far too long term for this thread, given that is basically winter.

Back to the summer I just hope the idea of somewhat more tempered heat in the East (with the ore sustained heat holding back west a bit) comes to pass.

This post has been edited by Hertz: May 17 2012, 10:27 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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jdrenken
post May 18 2012, 10:13 AM
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IRI Mid-May ENSO forecast


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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Hertz
post May 19 2012, 07:21 PM
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Roger Smith (who nailed the mild December and January failing only in February) has put out a SCARY HOT summer outlook.

Still it's the only one I can see that's this extreme. There's plenty other support (from both this site and a search I did for other off-site forecasts) for a warm summer in much of the country, but nothing else as extreme as this inferno. I just hope the more moderate ideas on here prove right this time!

This post has been edited by Hertz: May 19 2012, 07:23 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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Beck
post May 19 2012, 08:56 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 17 2012, 01:05 PM) *
Precip


That's the first time I've seen any outlook map recognize our summer dry season ("Dry Season Masking"). It's nice to see that.

Anyway, summers here are pretty hard to predict (temperature-wise) as we have so many microclimates and the ENSO doesn't seem to have any affect on our summer weather. However - the last two summers in Southern California were two of the coolest in the last 30 years, along with 1999 and 2001. Not sure if we'll get another one of those this year.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2013-2014: 6.10" (-6.65")
Normal to-date precipitation: 12.75"
Season began July 1st, 2013.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2013-2014: 7.10"

Temecula Weather Pages
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paletitsnow63
post May 21 2012, 05:55 AM
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May JAMSTEC update for JJA:


Attached File(s)
Attached File  temp2_glob_JJA2012_1may2012.gif ( 66.87K ) Number of downloads: 6
 
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jdrenken
post May 29 2012, 01:42 PM
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Isotherm has his summer outlook out.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post May 29 2012, 01:48 PM
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QUOTE(Hertz @ May 17 2012, 07:09 PM) *
He thinks the unprecedented warmth in the US as of late is because of the record cold stratosphere (I actually wish I knew where I could get a historical chart of stratospheric temps to get a good look at this). But his argument is a cold stratospheric creates a feedback in enhancing 500mb heights, leading to stronger ridges and weaker/more transient dips in the jet stream. We'll see what happens.


Look here. I'm sure we'll be revisiting the charts below later this year.

JFM


AMJ


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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blizzardOf96
post May 29 2012, 07:14 PM
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Heres the link to my summer outlook on my blog. I encourage you to take a look at my in depth discussion and I look forward to hearing your comments on some of my thoughts. laugh.gif

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/summer-outlook.html


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http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/


Follow me on Twitter: @Blizzardof96

Total Snowfall Winter 2013-14: 170.4cm
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Hertz
post May 29 2012, 09:55 PM
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Well looks like all signals say the Plains will be searing hot/dry...

Really the only real wildcard I'm seeing is the Northeastern quadrant of the US - in how much (if any) more moderate it will be compared to south/west of there. Isotherm is going a little above normal and blizzardOf96 a little cooler. But both outlooks have it wet/stormy in the east, and very hot and dry much of the Plains.

My personal thoughts are that if ENSO remains in the neutral category (at least in most ENSO regions) that'll help build the heat to the west, not sure to what extent it would plow east based on ENSO alone, but if the NAO is negative the two together could form a bit of a heat roadblock in the Northeast and more conditionally parts of the GLs which would also give the possible set-ups for wet/severe weather.

This post has been edited by Hertz: May 29 2012, 09:56 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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grandpaboy
post May 30 2012, 07:48 AM
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Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

"coldest opening to June since 2004, a cool summer for much of the nation" pic.twitter.com/uNaAjQOV



http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2...2511232/photo/1




Attached File  AuJLm5qCQAA0wwS.jpg ( 328.97K ) Number of downloads: 2


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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jdrenken
post May 30 2012, 09:40 AM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ May 30 2012, 07:48 AM) *
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

"coldest opening to June since 2004, a cool summer for much of the nation" pic.twitter.com/uNaAjQOV
http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2...2511232/photo/1
Attached File  AuJLm5qCQAA0wwS.jpg ( 328.97K ) Number of downloads: 2


So we tout the JAMSTEC for fall/winter and throw it out for summer? Interesting...sigh.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
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grandpaboy
post May 30 2012, 10:09 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 30 2012, 10:40 AM) *
So we tout the JAMSTEC for fall/winter and throw it out for summer? Interesting...sigh.



Yeah i can't even follow his back and forth anymore, i get dizzy..........dry.gif


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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gulfofslides
post May 30 2012, 12:41 PM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ May 30 2012, 11:09 AM) *
Yeah i can't even follow his back and forth anymore, i get dizzy..........dry.gif

Joe is always touting the cold but when it turns out warmer than forecasted, it's the model that is in error not the met laugh.gif
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NYCSuburbs
post May 30 2012, 02:21 PM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ May 30 2012, 11:09 AM) *
Yeah i can't even follow his back and forth anymore, i get dizzy.......... dry.gif

I stopped following his back and forth before the "winter" even started and I'm glad I did so...
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grandpaboy
post May 30 2012, 09:57 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ May 30 2012, 03:21 PM) *
I stopped following his back and forth before the "winter" even started and I'm glad I did so...




Bravo NYC.............I guess I enjoy watching the insane......... laugh.gif blink.gif


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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