 Long Range Summer 2012 Outlooks, Forecast and Trends |
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 May 5 2012, 02:10 PM
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#61
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 Rank: Tornado  Group: Member Posts: 83 Joined: 14-October 08 From: Belleville, Illinois Member No.: 15,903  |
QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 5 2012, 01:02 PM)  Looks pretty close to your fall forecast from last year. Theres similarities, but only one month in my 2011 Autumn forecast had such a pattern, not the entire autumn, though autumn and the winter did bear much more warmer then my forecast as well as that of others. The differences are the Jet Stream will be somewhat farther north, and the core of the heat will be a bit more north as well, while storm areas remain between the battle zones of the cooler air in the northeast and the hotter air of the plains, as this is generally a typical pattern for storms cross the country this time of year. So in summary, this summer will be similar to 2011, but the southeast will be wetter and the drought will shift west and north some, along with the worst of the heat, and the northeast will be a bit cooler then last year, but will still average at or slightly below normal. |
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May 5 2012, 10:10 PM
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#62
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 205 Joined: 25-July 11 From: Halifax Mass Member No.: 25,837 |
QUOTE(ILStormwatcher @ May 5 2012, 03:10 PM) Theres similarities, but only one month in my 2011 Autumn forecast had such a pattern, not the entire autumn, though autumn and the winter did bear much more warmer then my forecast as well as that of others. The differences are the Jet Stream will be somewhat farther north, and the core of the heat will be a bit more north as well, while storm areas remain between the battle zones of the cooler air in the northeast and the hotter air of the plains, as this is generally a typical pattern for storms cross the country this time of year. So in summary, this summer will be similar to 2011, but the southeast will be wetter and the drought will shift west and north some, along with the worst of the heat, and the northeast will be a bit cooler then last year, but will still average at or slightly below normal. The north east could do well with a cooler summer, I might be a weather noob when it comes to the long range, but the trough that you speak of "hanging around" could also bring rain? Would be great to ward off the drought. -------------------- Weather 2012-2013
Oct 28-29 Sandy Gust to 60MPH Oct 29 Thunder storms Dec 29 2.8 inch of snow |
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May 17 2012, 03:05 PM
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#63
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
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May 17 2012, 07:09 PM
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#64
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,107 Joined: 14-May 10 From: Cleveland, OH Member No.: 22,778 |
The two actually look amazingly similar to each other. It had been so incredibly warm just about anywhere in the US lately that I don't see anywhere I could rule out a hot summer. Yet these aren't the only venues that don't support the spread of heat through the whole country this coming season. Even the Global Prediction Center which was pretty bullish in March and April cooled some in its May update. TCC Japan just updated today also and isn't all that hot either, especially Northeast/eastern Midwest. Yet not everyone is sold on a milder summer - Steve D from nynjpa has been pretty bullish with heat in his summer forecast (per his Long Range thoughts). He thinks the unprecedented warmth in the US as of late is because of the record cold stratosphere (I actually wish I knew where I could get a historical chart of stratospheric temps to get a good look at this). But his argument is a cold stratospheric creates a feedback in enhancing 500mb heights, leading to stronger ridges and weaker/more transient dips in the jet stream. We'll see what happens.
This post has been edited by Hertz: May 17 2012, 07:11 PM -------------------- Let's hope this winter actually happens!
Severe Wx 2012 Cuyahoga Cty Severe thunderstorm watches: 4/30, 5/27, 7/1, 7/5, 7/26, 7/27, 9/7 Tornado watches: 2/29 (Svr Wx on Leap Day!) Tornado warnings: Slight Risk days: 2/29, 3/2 (stayed south), 3/12, 3/30, 4/16 (total bust), 4/30, 5/2 (busted), 5/4, 5/7 (didn't really pan out), 5/27, 6/18, 6/24 (busted and later removed), 6/28 (mostly busted), 7/1, 7/3-7/5, 7/7 (storms stayed just to SE), 7/18, 7/23 (bust), 7/25-7/27, 8/4 night, 8/9, 9/7 Moderate Risk days: Possibly 7/26, but it was mostly to my south/east. High Risk days: Strongest thunderstorms to date (from my house): Sandy was far more damaging than any thunderstorm. But probably something during July. Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): Think it's one of the wind guests from July |
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May 17 2012, 08:32 PM
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#65
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,273 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(Hertz @ May 17 2012, 08:09 PM) The two actually look amazingly similar to each other. It had been so incredibly warm just about anywhere in the US lately that I don't see anywhere I could rule out a hot summer. Yet these aren't the only venues that don't support the spread of heat through the whole country this coming season. Even the Global Prediction Center which was pretty bullish in March and April cooled some in its May update. TCC Japan just updated today also and isn't all that hot either, especially Northeast/eastern Midwest. Yet not everyone is sold on a milder summer - Steve D from nynjpa has been pretty bullish with heat in his summer forecast (per his Long Range thoughts). He thinks the unprecedented warmth in the US as of late is because of the record cold stratosphere (I actually wish I knew where I could get a historical chart of stratospheric temps to get a good look at this). But his argument is a cold stratospheric creates a feedback in enhancing 500mb heights, leading to stronger ridges and weaker/more transient dips in the jet stream. We'll see what happens. Hard to tell what happens regarding the summer, but at least for the Mid Atlantic and NE regions at this time I'm questioning a hot summer idea. After all, there was still a record cold stratosphere this winter, yet now that it's spring the pattern still isn't colder than average but at least in the NE parts of the US, there's been almost no warmth extremes since March, with plenty of warmth extremes relative to average prior to March. There's definitely going to be heat at times in the summer, but until I see the current pattern change, most of these heat surges will likely have trouble settling down over the East and creating a very warm pattern. -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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May 17 2012, 10:22 PM
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#66
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,107 Joined: 14-May 10 From: Cleveland, OH Member No.: 22,778 |
I hope he's wrong myself, too. It's pretty clear by al' the outlooks that the country as a whole need be bracing for another toasty summer. But if the (North)east and possibly Mid-Atlantic and maybe back into the eastern Midwest can evade the worst that would be refreshing
While the last two summer have moderated off some come August in the East Coast region, those areas (at least roughly NYC on south) took on some of the most anomalous heat in June and July both years (especially in 2010 and excluding the extreme Southern Plains scorcher last year). The CWG in Washington DC is calling for another hotter-than-normal summer there but its forecast is shy of what occurred in 2010 and 2011. Of course it seriously underestimated how hot both 2010 and 2011 would be. This is effectively the third straight summer it's forecast temperatures 1 or 2 degrees above normal there but in actuality the last two were much hotter for DC than that. I just hope that if it's on to something, at least it isn't underestimating again this time. And the other silver lining there is that every analog year it mentions went on to later produce at least two colder-than-average months in the November-January period that followed. But that of course is far too long term for this thread, given that is basically winter. Back to the summer I just hope the idea of somewhat more tempered heat in the East (with the ore sustained heat holding back west a bit) comes to pass. This post has been edited by Hertz: May 17 2012, 10:27 PM -------------------- Let's hope this winter actually happens!
Severe Wx 2012 Cuyahoga Cty Severe thunderstorm watches: 4/30, 5/27, 7/1, 7/5, 7/26, 7/27, 9/7 Tornado watches: 2/29 (Svr Wx on Leap Day!) Tornado warnings: Slight Risk days: 2/29, 3/2 (stayed south), 3/12, 3/30, 4/16 (total bust), 4/30, 5/2 (busted), 5/4, 5/7 (didn't really pan out), 5/27, 6/18, 6/24 (busted and later removed), 6/28 (mostly busted), 7/1, 7/3-7/5, 7/7 (storms stayed just to SE), 7/18, 7/23 (bust), 7/25-7/27, 8/4 night, 8/9, 9/7 Moderate Risk days: Possibly 7/26, but it was mostly to my south/east. High Risk days: Strongest thunderstorms to date (from my house): Sandy was far more damaging than any thunderstorm. But probably something during July. Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): Think it's one of the wind guests from July |
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May 18 2012, 10:13 AM
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#67
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
IRI Mid-May ENSO forecast
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May 19 2012, 07:21 PM
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#68
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,107 Joined: 14-May 10 From: Cleveland, OH Member No.: 22,778 |
Roger Smith (who nailed the mild December and January failing only in February) has put out a SCARY HOT summer outlook.
Still it's the only one I can see that's this extreme. There's plenty other support (from both this site and a search I did for other off-site forecasts) for a warm summer in much of the country, but nothing else as extreme as this inferno. I just hope the more moderate ideas on here prove right this time! This post has been edited by Hertz: May 19 2012, 07:23 PM -------------------- Let's hope this winter actually happens!
Severe Wx 2012 Cuyahoga Cty Severe thunderstorm watches: 4/30, 5/27, 7/1, 7/5, 7/26, 7/27, 9/7 Tornado watches: 2/29 (Svr Wx on Leap Day!) Tornado warnings: Slight Risk days: 2/29, 3/2 (stayed south), 3/12, 3/30, 4/16 (total bust), 4/30, 5/2 (busted), 5/4, 5/7 (didn't really pan out), 5/27, 6/18, 6/24 (busted and later removed), 6/28 (mostly busted), 7/1, 7/3-7/5, 7/7 (storms stayed just to SE), 7/18, 7/23 (bust), 7/25-7/27, 8/4 night, 8/9, 9/7 Moderate Risk days: Possibly 7/26, but it was mostly to my south/east. High Risk days: Strongest thunderstorms to date (from my house): Sandy was far more damaging than any thunderstorm. But probably something during July. Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): Think it's one of the wind guests from July |
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May 19 2012, 08:56 PM
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#69
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 28,303 Joined: 2-December 09 From: Temecula, California Member No.: 19,931 |
QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 17 2012, 01:05 PM) Precip  That's the first time I've seen any outlook map recognize our summer dry season ("Dry Season Masking"). It's nice to see that. Anyway, summers here are pretty hard to predict (temperature-wise) as we have so many microclimates and the ENSO doesn't seem to have any affect on our summer weather. However - the last two summers in Southern California were two of the coolest in the last 30 years, along with 1999 and 2001. Not sure if we'll get another one of those this year. -------------------- Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2012-2013: 7.27" (-6.43") Normal to-date precipitation: 13.70" East Murrieta Seasonal Precipitation 2012-2013: 7.11" Season began July 1st, 2012. Temecula Weather Pages |
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May 21 2012, 05:55 AM
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#70
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,944 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Denver, PA Member No.: 16,714 |
May JAMSTEC update for JJA:
Attached File(s)
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May 29 2012, 01:42 PM
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#71
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
Isotherm has his summer outlook out.
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May 29 2012, 01:48 PM
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#72
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE(Hertz @ May 17 2012, 07:09 PM) He thinks the unprecedented warmth in the US as of late is because of the record cold stratosphere (I actually wish I knew where I could get a historical chart of stratospheric temps to get a good look at this). But his argument is a cold stratospheric creates a feedback in enhancing 500mb heights, leading to stronger ridges and weaker/more transient dips in the jet stream. We'll see what happens. Look here. I'm sure we'll be revisiting the charts below later this year. JFM  AMJ 
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May 29 2012, 07:14 PM
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#73
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,017 Joined: 23-January 12 From: Toronto,ON Member No.: 26,371 |
Heres the link to my summer outlook on my blog. I encourage you to take a look at my in depth discussion and I look forward to hearing your comments on some of my thoughts.
 http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/summer-outlook.html -------------------- |
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May 29 2012, 09:55 PM
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#74
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,107 Joined: 14-May 10 From: Cleveland, OH Member No.: 22,778 |
Well looks like all signals say the Plains will be searing hot/dry...
Really the only real wildcard I'm seeing is the Northeastern quadrant of the US - in how much (if any) more moderate it will be compared to south/west of there. Isotherm is going a little above normal and blizzardOf96 a little cooler. But both outlooks have it wet/stormy in the east, and very hot and dry much of the Plains. My personal thoughts are that if ENSO remains in the neutral category (at least in most ENSO regions) that'll help build the heat to the west, not sure to what extent it would plow east based on ENSO alone, but if the NAO is negative the two together could form a bit of a heat roadblock in the Northeast and more conditionally parts of the GLs which would also give the possible set-ups for wet/severe weather. This post has been edited by Hertz: May 29 2012, 09:56 PM -------------------- Let's hope this winter actually happens!
Severe Wx 2012 Cuyahoga Cty Severe thunderstorm watches: 4/30, 5/27, 7/1, 7/5, 7/26, 7/27, 9/7 Tornado watches: 2/29 (Svr Wx on Leap Day!) Tornado warnings: Slight Risk days: 2/29, 3/2 (stayed south), 3/12, 3/30, 4/16 (total bust), 4/30, 5/2 (busted), 5/4, 5/7 (didn't really pan out), 5/27, 6/18, 6/24 (busted and later removed), 6/28 (mostly busted), 7/1, 7/3-7/5, 7/7 (storms stayed just to SE), 7/18, 7/23 (bust), 7/25-7/27, 8/4 night, 8/9, 9/7 Moderate Risk days: Possibly 7/26, but it was mostly to my south/east. High Risk days: Strongest thunderstorms to date (from my house): Sandy was far more damaging than any thunderstorm. But probably something during July. Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): Think it's one of the wind guests from July |
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May 30 2012, 07:48 AM
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#75
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,825 Joined: 24-January 08 From: 39.96N, 74.2W Member No.: 12,978 |
Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi "coldest opening to June since 2004, a cool summer for much of the nation" pic.twitter.com/uNaAjQOV http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2...2511232/photo/1 
AuJLm5qCQAA0wwS.jpg ( 328.97K )
Number of downloads: 2-------------------- Fall/Winter 2012/13---------
First Snow: 11/7/12 - 7 inches Bunch of Clippers that produced a total of 3 inches... 2/8/13 - Blizzard backend snows - 6.5 inches +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ WINTER 2009/2010 Season 73.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2010/2011 Season total - 49 inches ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2011/2012 Season Toal - Too little to mention |
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May 30 2012, 09:40 AM
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#76
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE(grandpaboy @ May 30 2012, 07:48 AM) Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi "coldest opening to June since 2004, a cool summer for much of the nation" pic.twitter.com/uNaAjQOV http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2...2511232/photo/1
AuJLm5qCQAA0wwS.jpg ( 328.97K )
Number of downloads: 2So we tout the JAMSTEC for fall/winter and throw it out for summer? Interesting...sigh. -------------------- |
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May 30 2012, 10:09 AM
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#77
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,825 Joined: 24-January 08 From: 39.96N, 74.2W Member No.: 12,978 |
QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 30 2012, 10:40 AM) So we tout the JAMSTEC for fall/winter and throw it out for summer? Interesting...sigh. Yeah i can't even follow his back and forth anymore, i get dizzy.......... 
-------------------- Fall/Winter 2012/13---------
First Snow: 11/7/12 - 7 inches Bunch of Clippers that produced a total of 3 inches... 2/8/13 - Blizzard backend snows - 6.5 inches +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ WINTER 2009/2010 Season 73.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2010/2011 Season total - 49 inches ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2011/2012 Season Toal - Too little to mention |
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May 30 2012, 12:41 PM
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#78
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,648 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Hingham Member No.: 12,082 |
QUOTE(grandpaboy @ May 30 2012, 11:09 AM) Yeah i can't even follow his back and forth anymore, i get dizzy.......... Joe is always touting the cold but when it turns out warmer than forecasted, it's the model that is in error not the met
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May 30 2012, 02:21 PM
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#79
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,273 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(grandpaboy @ May 30 2012, 11:09 AM) Yeah i can't even follow his back and forth anymore, i get dizzy.......... I stopped following his back and forth before the "winter" even started and I'm glad I did so... -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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May 30 2012, 09:57 PM
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#80
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,825 Joined: 24-January 08 From: 39.96N, 74.2W Member No.: 12,978 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ May 30 2012, 03:21 PM) I stopped following his back and forth before the "winter" even started and I'm glad I did so... Bravo NYC.............I guess I enjoy watching the insane......... 
-------------------- Fall/Winter 2012/13---------
First Snow: 11/7/12 - 7 inches Bunch of Clippers that produced a total of 3 inches... 2/8/13 - Blizzard backend snows - 6.5 inches +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ WINTER 2009/2010 Season 73.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2010/2011 Season total - 49 inches ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2011/2012 Season Toal - Too little to mention |
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