Long Range Summer 2012 Outlooks, Forecast and Trends Options

[paletitsnow63]

This being the first day of Spring I thought I would open the Summer 2012 Outlooks since Summer is only 92 days away!

JMA temperature anomalies - March 1, 2012 run for Summer 2012:

Attached File(s)

 JJAoUhMr_CMAAuRdC.jpg ( 184.82K ) Number of downloads: 19

 

[TheBlizzardOf197...]

Joe Bastardi

This is no more indication of the coming summer in the lakes and midwest than pre halloween snowstorm was an indication of winter!

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Joe-Bastardi/160146074041045

[grandpaboy]

and it continues............


From the Weatherbell CFS site: Hot summer eh???not so fast my friend cool summer, early fall could sway election


http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi

[NYCSuburbs]

and it continues............


From the Weatherbell CFS site: Hot summer eh???not so fast my friend cool summer, early fall could sway election


http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi

Cool summer, early fall... you don't even need to guess what he'd say for the next part

I remember him saying something about global cooling supposedly starting this year or the next one (not sure which), and apparently he's still trying to push with that prediction, just as he did with the pattern change which after 4 months we're still waiting for...

[jdrenken]

and it continues............
From the Weatherbell CFS site: Hot summer eh???not so fast my friend cool summer, early fall could sway election
http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi

Late February CFS
 Late_February_CFS.JPG ( 86.09K ) Number of downloads: 1


This was the CFS earlier this month...
 Early_March_CFS.JPG ( 88.46K ) Number of downloads: 2


and this is the one he was referencing.
 Late_March_CFS.JPG ( 98.15K ) Number of downloads: 1


Last MJJ verification...
 MJJ_2011.JPG ( 45.94K ) Number of downloads: 2


Last JJA verification...
 JJA.JPG ( 48.53K ) Number of downloads: 2


Bueller...Bueller

[OSNW3]

Taking a page from a recurring cycle theory I follow, the LRC, I would genuinely expect a very warm and humid summer (JJA) in Wisconsin with about 5-6 evenly spaced out short lived relief periods. As much as the heater was not running this winter up here, the ac certainly has the work cut out for it. We'll see!

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/TempDF1112.html

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Mar 24 2012, 10:45 PM

[grandpaboy]

Late February CFS
 Late_February_CFS.JPG ( 86.09K ) Number of downloads: 1


This was the CFS earlier this month...
 Early_March_CFS.JPG ( 88.46K ) Number of downloads: 2


and this is the one he was referencing.
 Late_March_CFS.JPG ( 98.15K ) Number of downloads: 1


Last MJJ verification...
 MJJ_2011.JPG ( 45.94K ) Number of downloads: 2


Last JJA verification...
 JJA.JPG ( 48.53K ) Number of downloads: 2


Bueller...Bueller

[jdrenken]

Just in case it's brought up...below are the CFSv2.

Late Feb
 CFSv2_Late_Feb.JPG ( 104.78K ) Number of downloads: 1


Early March
 CFSv2_Early_March.JPG ( 104.81K ) Number of downloads: 1


Mid-March
 CFSv2_Mid_March.JPG ( 102.63K ) Number of downloads: 3

[paletitsnow63]

JD or anybody,
Over on the Winter 2012/2013 I posted the JMA March 2011 presiction for September, October, November 2011 and how well it verified:

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1542202


I also started this thread with the JMA March 2012 prediction for June, July, August 2012.

Do you or anybody else have what the JMA predicted in March 2011 for the Summer of 2011? Since it did a pretty good job at predicting the Autumn of 2011 from March of 2011 I was curious to see what it predicted for Summer of last year in March of last year. I was just trying to compare it to the CFS and CFS V2. Looks like from what JD posted earlier CFS did a terrible job of predicting Summer of 2011 back in March of 2011. Just trying to compare how the JMA has done.

[jdrenken]

JD or anybody,
Over on the Winter 2012/2013 I posted the JMA March 2011 presiction for September, October, November 2011 and how well it verified:

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1542202
I also started this thread with the JMA March 2012 prediction for June, July, August 2012.

Do you or anybody else have what the JMA predicted in March 2011 for the Summer of 2011? Since it did a pretty good job at predicting the Autumn of 2011 from March of 2011 I was curious to see what it predicted for Summer of last year in March of last year. I was just trying to compare it to the CFS and CFS V2. Looks like from what JD posted earlier CFS did a terrible job of predicting Summer of 2011 back in March of 2011. Just trying to compare how the JMA has done.

You can find it the same way you found the Autumn 2011 by going here and then clicking on the 'Seasonal Prediction' on the left. Sadly, the NCDC is having technical problems.
 JMA_JJA_2011.JPG ( 88.84K ) Number of downloads: 0


Be careful though, this is what it showed in January.

[jdrenken]

Latest CPC ENSO Status pdf.

Attached File(s)

 19MAR12_ENSO_CFSv1.JPG ( 140.21K ) Number of downloads: 2
 19MAR12_ENSO_CFSv2.JPG ( 123.61K ) Number of downloads: 5

 

[jdrenken]

LC's thoughts...

The slow to change oceanic numbers are important because a shift to El Nino implies a cooler spring and summer, with less tropical cyclone activity. I am leaning toward a fairly warm/hot later May and June in the U.S., with a shift to mild or cooler weather east of the Rocky Mountains in the second half of the season

Continue reading on Examiner.com WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 7:30 P.M. CT - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston...t#ixzz1q5SVnorA

[Niyologist]

Looks like a Weakening -PDO with a tanking -SOI by JJA 2012.

[jdrenken]

Looks like a Weakening -PDO with a tanking -SOI by JJA 2012.

You wouldn't by chance have images to support would you?

[Niyologist]

You wouldn't by chance have images to support would you?

Going based on the Latest ENSO discussion you posted from NOAA. That's how the CFS v1/v2 looks like.

This post has been edited by Niyologist: Mar 24 2012, 09:27 PM

[jdrenken]

Going based on the Latest ENSO discussion you posted from NOAA. That's how the CFS v1/v2 looks like.

They don't talk about the SOI. A neutral ENSO is not indicative of a "tanking" SOI.

Definition for those who don't know...

Southern Oscillation Index:

During the past fortnight, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has fluctuated within low positive values, and has now been within neutral ENSO range since late February. The latest (11 March) 30-day SOI value is +2.7.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niņa event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niņo event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.

[Niyologist]

They don't talk about the SOI. A neutral ENSO is not indicative of a "tanking" SOI.

Okay, an SOI can tank, but slowly. Doesn't have to be rapidly. Besides, look at this:

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/

Also, I think I meant to say Neutral SOI (Assuming it'll be at that level) at JJA 2012.

This post has been edited by Niyologist: Mar 24 2012, 11:07 PM

[jdrenken]

Okay, an SOI can tank, but slowly. Doesn't have to be rapidly. Besides, look at this:

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/

Also, I think I meant to say Neutral SOI (Assuming it'll be at that level) at JJA 2012.

It's already neutral.

12 Mar 2012 1012.24 1004.25 18.57 2.61 9.53
13 Mar 2012 1012.21 1004.35 17.95 3.20 9.43
14 Mar 2012 1010.68 1004.10 11.82 3.85 9.26
15 Mar 2012 1009.64 1004.15 6.60 4.28 8.96
16 Mar 2012 1009.94 1004.90 4.45 4.53 8.69
17 Mar 2012 1011.28 1004.40 13.26 5.14 8.64
18 Mar 2012 1010.88 1005.80 4.64 5.50 8.47
19 Mar 2012 1009.59 1005.00 2.30 5.50 8.23
20 Mar 2012 1010.33 1003.95 10.86 5.84 8.10
21 Mar 2012 1010.89 1004.40 11.39 6.18 7.93
22 Mar 2012 1011.41 1006.25 5.03 6.36 7.60
23 Mar 2012 1011.69 1007.95 -1.77 6.07 7.08
24 Mar 2012 1011.93 1008.30 -2.30 5.81 6.51

[Niyologist]

It's already neutral.

That was fast.

[Removed_Member_weathertree4u_*]

That was fast.

ok, so someone refresh my memory; I know why it is good for the east to have a weak El Nino; how does the SOI effect it again?