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> Long Range Summer 2012 Outlooks, Forecast and Trends
NYCSuburbs
post Mar 25 2012, 09:31 AM
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Talking about colder temperatures in the summer is one thing and would be a refreshing break from the spell of 14 consecutive months (to date) ending up warmer than average in parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic (haven't found an online article on this yet but local newspaper had a quote from the state climatologist saying this), but I would keep my eyes much more on the precipitation... for example, parts of the NYC tri-state area haven't even reached 10% of the average March rainfall:

Attached File  Month.gif ( 84.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


Looking back a little more, this pattern has already been quite dry since the start of the year:

Attached File  year.gif ( 79.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


I haven't seen much mention of precipitation for the summer, but I hope this pattern doesn't continue. The pattern at least through mid April doesn't appear to be a wet one, and IF this pattern continue into the summer I can see how a drought develops.
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gulfofslides
post Mar 25 2012, 10:42 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Mar 25 2012, 10:31 AM) *
Talking about colder temperatures in the summer is one thing and would be a refreshing break from the spell of 14 consecutive months (to date) ending up warmer than average in parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic (haven't found an online article on this yet but local newspaper had a quote from the state climatologist saying this), but I would keep my eyes much more on the precipitation... for example, parts of the NYC tri-state area haven't even reached 10% of the average March rainfall:

Attached File  Month.gif ( 84.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


Looking back a little more, this pattern has already been quite dry since the start of the year:

Attached File  year.gif ( 79.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


I haven't seen much mention of precipitation for the summer, but I hope this pattern doesn't continue. The pattern at least through mid April doesn't appear to be a wet one, and IF this pattern continue into the summer I can see how a drought develops.

It is already dry and with no run off from snow melt look for rivers and lakes to be well below normal for April and May. Not a good set up for the summer and the growing season
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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 25 2012, 10:47 AM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Mar 25 2012, 10:42 AM) *
It is already dry and with no run off from snow melt look for rivers and lakes to be well below normal for April and May. Not a good set up for the summer and the growing season

There's already a widespread D0 zone covering the region with D1 conditions in SE New England; the table from the left shows that the D0 area nearly doubled from the previous week, and that map hasn't even taken into account this week's dry conditions (which it will when the next map comes out). Perhaps the second half of spring may reverse this but at this time I don't like where this is going...

Attached File  northeast_dm.png ( 78.37K ) Number of downloads: 4
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gulfofslides
post Mar 25 2012, 12:14 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Mar 25 2012, 11:47 AM) *
There's already a widespread D0 zone covering the region with D1 conditions in SE New England; the table from the left shows that the D0 area nearly doubled from the previous week, and that map hasn't even taken into account this week's dry conditions (which it will when the next map comes out). Perhaps the second half of spring may reverse this but at this time I don't like where this is going...

Attached File  northeast_dm.png ( 78.37K ) Number of downloads: 4

I'm already in a moderate drought, lawn is dusty sad.gif
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OSNW3
post Mar 25 2012, 07:39 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Mar 25 2012, 08:31 AM) *
I haven't seen much mention of precipitation for the summer, but I hope this pattern doesn't continue. The pattern at least through mid April doesn't appear to be a wet one, and IF this pattern continue into the summer I can see how a drought develops.


The pattern should hold on into late August.


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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 25 2012, 08:29 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Mar 25 2012, 07:39 PM) *
The pattern should hold on into late August.

Unfortunately, the dry pattern could do that in the worst case scenario... there's a pattern change clearly developing near Greenland and parts of Canada, where suddenly there's no polar vortex stuck in the arctic regions, which will keep the northeastern US with near-slightly below average temps at least around the start of April (not so sure yet where it goes afterwards). Even with this change though, the aspect of the pattern that does not appear to be changing is that it's a dry one for parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast. As long as the dry pattern stays in place, which through the first half of spring IMO is a reasonable possibility, I would not be surprised if a drought develops again, making it the first one since summer 2010.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Mar 25 2012, 08:30 PM
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OSNW3
post Mar 26 2012, 09:23 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Mar 25 2012, 07:29 PM) *
Unfortunately, the dry pattern could do that in the worst case scenario... there's a pattern change clearly developing near Greenland and parts of Canada, where suddenly there's no polar vortex stuck in the arctic regions, which will keep the northeastern US with near-slightly below average temps at least around the start of April (not so sure yet where it goes afterwards). Even with this change though, the aspect of the pattern that does not appear to be changing is that it's a dry one for parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast. As long as the dry pattern stays in place, which through the first half of spring IMO is a reasonable possibility, I would not be surprised if a drought develops again, making it the first one since summer 2010.


Looking at the LRC trend for NYC (Central Park is where the data is from), it seems there are 3 distinct 'wet' periods in each cycle which last a few days. I would have to look at the actual surface data to know how much precip fell in each occurrence, but none the less, precipitation did fall on those days in previous cycles. AND, who knows, with the jet slowly backing into a similar place as October, perhaps the 'Halloween' Noreaster will return early May and dump some good precip.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/TempDFNYC1112.html

From the trend the 'Halloween' Noreaster (lines ups Dec 15-ish) was an anomaly as far as surface obs go. It was the only time in all the cycles [for that time period/particular pattern] that had below average temps. Anyways, if you check out the trend and need an explanation let me know.

EDIT = [for that time period/particular pattern]

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Mar 26 2012, 10:05 PM


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windman
post Mar 26 2012, 11:16 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Mar 25 2012, 09:29 PM) *
Unfortunately, the dry pattern could do that in the worst case scenario... there's a pattern change clearly developing near Greenland and parts of Canada, where suddenly there's no polar vortex stuck in the arctic regions, which will keep the northeastern US with near-slightly below average temps at least around the start of April (not so sure yet where it goes afterwards). Even with this change though, the aspect of the pattern that does not appear to be changing is that it's a dry one for parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast. As long as the dry pattern stays in place, which through the first half of spring IMO is a reasonable possibility, I would not be surprised if a drought develops again, making it the first one since summer 2010.


It doesn't look good now, but I've been looking back at precip records and it turns out what happens in March is little indication of what the summer will bring. Turns out, the driest March on record for NYC is 2006, and that summer turned out to be very wet with active severe weather... On the other hand, March 2010 was the wettest on record...

There seems to be some correlation between active severe weather seasons and coming out of a cold-phase ENSO, or at least a positive trend in the Pacific SST anomalies (2001, 2002, 2006, 2008)... Hopefully we will follow suit with that trend this summer. I've been thinking we'll have an active summer here in the NYC area for a couple months now, and I'm sticking with that prediction.

Also, here's the CFS precip anomaly forecast, for what its worth... Shows a clear wettening trend by May, after a dry April. Looks promising!

Attached File  usPrecMon.gif ( 33.68K ) Number of downloads: 7
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gulfofslides
post Mar 27 2012, 01:50 PM
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QUOTE(windman @ Mar 27 2012, 12:16 AM) *
It doesn't look good now, but I've been looking back at precip records and it turns out what happens in March is little indication of what the summer will bring. Turns out, the driest March on record for NYC is 2006, and that summer turned out to be very wet with active severe weather... On the other hand, March 2010 was the wettest on record...

There seems to be some correlation between active severe weather seasons and coming out of a cold-phase ENSO, or at least a positive trend in the Pacific SST anomalies (2001, 2002, 2006, 2008)... Hopefully we will follow suit with that trend this summer. I've been thinking we'll have an active summer here in the NYC area for a couple months now, and I'm sticking with that prediction.

Also, here's the CFS precip anomaly forecast, for what its worth... Shows a clear wettening trend by May, after a dry April. Looks promising!

Attached File  usPrecMon.gif ( 33.68K ) Number of downloads: 7

Looks good for the east and dry in the NW. It's the SW that is suspect . I tend to think that it will be wetter than what is depicted by the CFS
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Niyologist
post Mar 31 2012, 12:52 PM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Mar 27 2012, 02:50 PM) *
Looks good for the east and dry in the NW. It's the SW that is suspect . I tend to think that it will be wetter than what is depicted by the CFS


Yeah, an El Nino could bring relief to the drought stricken areas by Late Summer 2012.


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jdrenken
post Apr 2 2012, 08:51 PM
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CFS continuing the trend of showing why you need to be skeptical...





Latest...poof?


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jdrenken
post Apr 2 2012, 08:55 PM
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Just in case...


CFSv2

Attached File(s)
Attached File  02APR11_CFS3.JPG ( 108.99K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  02APR11_CFS4.JPG ( 105.71K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  02APR11_CFS5.JPG ( 107.22K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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jdrenken
post Apr 5 2012, 06:56 AM
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Steve D talks about his concern for early summer heat waves.


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Niyologist
post Apr 5 2012, 10:23 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Apr 5 2012, 07:56 AM) *
Steve D talks about his concern for early summer heat waves.


Of course that'll happen, due to the lingering La Nina effects. Although, El Nino effects should be apparent by at least Late August with a +Neutral.


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mike82140
post Apr 7 2012, 09:05 AM
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Question about t-storms in NYC: With last summer having a very little amount thunderstorms, I was wondering...will this summer have a higher amount of thunderstorms than last year? Also, is there a higher possibility for the thunderstorms to become severe?


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windman
post Apr 7 2012, 07:45 PM
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QUOTE(mike82140 @ Apr 7 2012, 10:05 AM) *
Question about t-storms in NYC: With last summer having a very little amount thunderstorms, I was wondering...will this summer have a higher amount of thunderstorms than last year? Also, is there a higher possibility for the thunderstorms to become severe?


See my post (#28) above.

The recent cooling trend in the CFS for the summer months further supports my thinking... Contrary to what one would think, the hottest summers are actually not the best for severe weather. The cool signal suggests more troughiness over the Great Lakes to eastern U.S., which means a more active storm track and more chances for severe weather in the region.

If I had to take a guess, I actually think we will see our first severe outbreak early this year, around the first week of May. And looking at the past several GFS and ECMWF runs, there also appears to be signs of a cyclone cutting west of the area with a big warm surge ahead of it around April 16th-17th, which could provide a thunderstorm threat.
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mike82140
post Apr 7 2012, 08:04 PM
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QUOTE(windman @ Apr 7 2012, 08:45 PM) *
See my post (#28) above.

The recent cooling trend in the CFS for the summer months further supports my thinking... Contrary to what one would think, the hottest summers are actually not the best for severe weather. The cool signal suggests more troughiness over the Great Lakes to eastern U.S., which means a more active storm track and more chances for severe weather in the region.

If I had to take a guess, I actually think we will see our first severe outbreak early this year, around the first week of May. And looking at the past several GFS and ECMWF runs, there also appears to be signs of a cyclone cutting west of the area with a big warm surge ahead of it around April 16th-17th, which could provide a thunderstorm threat.

If we have a higher chance for severe weather this summer...does that mean we will have a higher tornado or at least landspout chance?


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jdrenken
post Apr 8 2012, 10:49 AM
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A good post on American with the matching analogs. I don't believe that the departures will be that extreme as our highs will obviously go up as time goes along which will mitigate the impact.
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Attached File  Summer_2012_Analogs.JPG ( 90.93K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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New England Stor...
post Apr 8 2012, 11:22 AM
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QUOTE(mike82140 @ Apr 7 2012, 09:04 PM) *
If we have a higher chance for severe weather this summer...does that mean we will have a higher tornado or at least landspout chance?

Could by with a quick tornado spin up, like in 08' in my area. I know that landspouts are some what rare in our area, only once can I recall a landspout in the north east. (or maybe it was a cold air funnel)?

I think for the best bet of quick tornado you want cold air aloft and lots of moisture, with a sw wind?



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jdrenken
post Apr 8 2012, 03:14 PM
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wxoutlooks blog post for NYC...

QUOTE
JUNE 2012
T--A.
P--N.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY--N.
NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS CENTRAL PARK--4.

JULY 2012
T--N/A.
P--N.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY--N.
NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS CENTRAL PARK--7.

AUGUST 2012
T--N.
P--N.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY--B.
NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS CENTRAL PARK--4.


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