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> Mar. 25-29 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1-2 Slight Risk - Forecasts & OBS
snowlover2
post Mar 20 2012, 09:52 PM
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SPC mentions in the 4-8 Day outlook that severe weather is possible in the Plains on the 26th and moving east later.

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AS THEY ADVANCE THE INCREASINGLY-PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH DAYS 4-5 /FRI 3-23 AND SAT
3-24/...AND THEN ACROSS THE E COAST STATES AND FINALLY OFFSHORE DAY
6 /SUN 3-25/. WHILE LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES -- PARTICULARLY DAY 5 AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW/FRONT MOVES E OF THE APPALACHIANS...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT ATTM TO WARRANT GRAPHICAL HIGHLIGHT ATTM.

MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM -- A VERY SLOW-MOVING TROUGH CROSSING
THE WRN U.S. -- SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE PLAINS BY DAY 7 /MON
3-26/. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 7 -- AND INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 8. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES
IN INTENSITY OF THE EJECTING FEATURE APPARENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF CAST UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF POSSIBLE
THREAT...WHICH PRECLUDES AN AREAL ISSUANCE ATTM.


This post has been edited by snowlover2: Mar 25 2012, 02:54 AM


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WeatherMonger
post Mar 21 2012, 12:03 PM
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QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THOUGH MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...DECENT LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS APPARENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

DAY 4 /SAT 3-24/ THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...AS
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LUMBER ESEWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. WHILE
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK
-- SUGGESTING ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UVV...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH SOME SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE E OF THE
APPALACHIANS. ATTM HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT INCLUSION OF A
30%-EQUIVALENT RISK AREA.

WITH THIS SYSTEM DEPARTING BY DAY 5...FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER
SHIFTS WWD INTO THE PLAINS STARTING DAY 6 /MON 3-26/. WHILE
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS TO LIMIT POTENTIAL DAY 6...A BIT GREATER
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS EVIDENT ATTM FOR DAY 7 /TUE 3-27/...AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS
NEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE PLAINS. BY THIS TIME
HOWEVER...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE SMALL SCALE AFFECT CONFIDENCE
REGARDING LOCATION AND TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES...TO THE DEGREE
THAT GREATER CORRIDORS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. FURTHER...WITH PRIOR SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT QUALITY AND SPEED OF NWD RETURN OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS -- AND THUS WOULD MODULATE THE
OVERALL DEGREE OF THREAT...THESE FACTORS PRECLUDE AREAL OUTLINE
ATTM.

CONVECTIVE THREAT WOULD APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO DAY 8 /WED
3-28/...THOUGH SHIFTED EWD INTO THE MIDWEST AND POSSIBLY SWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. AGAIN THOUGH...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION AND
DEGREE OF THREAT PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF AN OUTLOOK AREA ATTM.

..GOSS.. 03/21/2012
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Illinois blizzar...
post Mar 23 2012, 11:33 AM
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QUOTE
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230845
SPC AC 230845

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...EJECTING NEWD
ACROSS WY AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ON MON/D4. BOTH MODELS ALSO
DEPICT A DEEP SURFACE LOW...WITH 1-2 MB/HR PRESSURE FALLS PERSISTING
ALL DAY OVER SD AND WRN NEB NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. WITH THE COMPACT
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHT PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET IS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM WRN SD INTO N
CNTRL NEB.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE MORE OF AN EWD DIRECTION ON
TUE/D5 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH STRONG VORTICITY
ALOFT...BANDS OF STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
VORTICITY MAX. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE MOIST AXIS WILL
BECOME NARROW...AND STRONG MIXING MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE RESULT
COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INTRODUCE SUCH A SMALL AREA.

AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...A COLD FRONT
WILL TRAIL SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED SEVERE
MAY OCCUR IN THE FORM OF WIND AND HAIL...NO LARGE SCALE AREAS APPEAR
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.


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Illinois blizzar...
post Mar 24 2012, 02:09 AM
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Day 3 - slight

QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE BLACK HILLS NEWD INTO
NWRN MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN MON MORNING
INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN FROM ERN MT INTO WRN SD/NEB. AN INTENSE
COLD FRONT WILL MATERIALIZE OVER WY AND CO...AFFECTING SD AND NEB
DURING THE EVENING WITH STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS.

...DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH A
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY AS THEY
GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD ACROSS ND AND PERHAPS NWRN MN.

TO THE S...THE PLAINS WILL BE CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY. PRESSURES WILL
FALL RAPIDLY OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH
CONVERGENCE INTENSIFYING AS A COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS WY AND CO.

SINCE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE...PEAK HEATING WILL HAVE BEEN
ACHIEVED AND VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
PLACE. DEWPOINTS MAY ONLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S F...BUT CAPE
WILL BE NONZERO AND SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG. HIGH BASED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT BEGINNING OVER WY...AND SPREADING
RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING A RAPID AND STRONG WIND SHIFT WITH WLY 850 MB POST FRONTAL
FLOW IN EXCESS OF 60 KT. SO WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR...STRONG FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD COMPENSATE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

OTHER STORMS WILL PERSIST N OF THE WARM FRONT...FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS
INTO MN WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT.


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WeatherMonger
post Mar 24 2012, 09:16 AM
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Won't be holding my breath on Tuesday, but will be watching it. I'll be in the woods with sporadic cell service about 45 miles NW of here. We'll see how it goes, doesn't sound like it's a given at this time.

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ON TUE/D4...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
DAKOTAS EARLY...EJECTING NEWD ACROSS MN AND PERHAPS INTO WRN ONTARIO
BY 00Z WED. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ONGOING...ELEVATED ABOVE A WARM FRONT. THERE IS MODEL VARIABILITY
WITH HOW FAR N THIS WAVE WILL EJECT DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL
AFFECT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY FORMS OVER A NARROW WARM SECTOR. IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT FROM WI INTO NRN AND WRN IL TUE AFTERNOON...HELPED BY 850 MB
CONFLUENCE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000 J/KG MUCAPE...BUT WITH RELATIVELY POOR
LAPSE RATE PROFILES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WELL S OF THE MIDLEVEL
SPEED MAX. VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT WOULD CONDITIONALLY FAVOR
SUPERCELLS...BUT AT THIS TIME THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED
.

THIS TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE NERN STATES AS
A FRONT TRAILS SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH SOME HAIL AND WIND.

LITTLE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE NRN CONUS AND WEAK FLOW OVER THE
CNTRL AND SRN STATES.

..JEWELL.. 03/24/2012

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jdrenken
post Mar 24 2012, 09:37 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Mar 24 2012, 09:16 AM) *
Won't be holding my breath on Tuesday, but will be watching it. I'll be in the woods with sporadic cell service about 45 miles NW of here. We'll see how it goes, doesn't sound like it's a given at this time.


Here is the map showing D4 potential.


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WeatherMonger
post Mar 24 2012, 01:37 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 24 2012, 09:37 AM) *
Here is the map showing D4 potential.


Yeah, wasn't implying I was in the better risk area. But sounded like a possible see text type scenario here/near here. ILX and Forbes have both mentioned thunderstorm chances that day. Only thing out there at the present.
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jdrenken
post Mar 24 2012, 01:48 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Mar 24 2012, 01:37 PM) *
Yeah, wasn't implying I was in the better risk area. But sounded like a possible see text type scenario here/near here. ILX and Forbes have both mentioned thunderstorm chances that day. Only thing out there at the present.


I'm surprised because even our local mentions rain on Tuesday.

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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


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StormChaserCK19
post Mar 24 2012, 06:50 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Mar 24 2012, 12:37 PM) *
Yeah, wasn't implying I was in the better risk area. But sounded like a possible see text type scenario here/near here. ILX and Forbes have both mentioned thunderstorm chances that day. Only thing out there at the present.


Do you guys realize the day 4 is the same it was yesterday? The synopsis doesn't go along with the risk at all.


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The Day After To...
post Mar 24 2012, 07:06 PM
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StormChaser, you are right.

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jdrenken
post Mar 24 2012, 07:39 PM
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QUOTE(StormChaserCK19 @ Mar 24 2012, 06:50 PM) *
Do you guys realize the day 4 is the same it was yesterday? The synopsis doesn't go along with the risk at all.


Obviously I didn't. wink.gif laugh.gif


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Illinois blizzar...
post Mar 25 2012, 03:23 AM
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Day 2

QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO NWRN MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO VACATE THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A MORE
NRN TROUGH CROSSES -- AND THEN EXITS -- NEW ENGLAND...A VERY
FAST-MOVING/POTENT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND REACH THE NRN
PLAINS LATE...TAKING ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG CYCLOGENETIC RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE WILL
OCCUR -- ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A LOW
SHIFTS OUT OF MT AND DEEPENS OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS UPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.

...NRN PLAINS...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION MAY BE SUPPORTING
ONGOING/ELEVATED STORMS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS AND VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
WITH STRONGER CELLS.

AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD...FOCUS WILL SHIFT WWD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION.
WHILE VERY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FAIRLY STOUT CAP SHOULD
HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS SOME THREAT
FOR HAIL. AFTER SUNSET...THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FACILITATE
RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING -- RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY ELEVATED
CONVECTION...AND EVENTUAL DECREASE IN WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
ONGOING STORMS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AS CONVECTION SHIFTS ENEWD TOWARD NWRN MN THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

...TX HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THE TX
PANHANDLE SWD TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AS MODEST CAPE DEVELOPS
DESPITE MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. WITH AMPLE CAPE AND
VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.


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Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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Illinois blizzar...
post Mar 25 2012, 03:24 AM
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Day 3 - slight

QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE INDIANA/IL VICINITY
SWWD INTO FAR SERN KS/NERN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NRN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PAC NW COAST...THOUGH A
LEAD IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...S OF A SLOWLY FILLING LOW WHOSE
TRACK IS PROGGED TO ROUGHLY COINCIDE WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND ACROSS THE
PAC NW...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE.

...MIDWEST WSWWD ACROSS THE MO OZARKS...
WHILE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS AGAIN EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING CENTRAL U.S. COLD FRONT...ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM SERN IA/WRN IL SWWD INTO THE NERN OK
VICINITY...AS GENERALLY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE EVOLVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH FLOW ALOFT VEERING/INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO NEAR 40 KT AT MID
LEVELS...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS
SUGGESTS THREATS FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WHILE THIS
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...A FEW STORMS -- AND ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL -- SHOULD
SPREAD EWD INTO THE LOWER LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY WITHIN THE ZONE OF
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT.


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WeatherMonger
post Mar 25 2012, 08:51 AM
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QUOTE(Illinois blizzard @ Mar 25 2012, 03:24 AM) *
Day 3 - slight

So close, yet so far away. Hopefully we can get something around here this time. ILX only mentions it in their HWO, nothing in the AFD


Edit, Having said that Forbes just mentioned on his Facebook that it looks rather moisture starved so storms may have a hard time forming. Only gives an isolated severe chance in central/northeast MO and central IL. TorCon 2-3. I can't copy and paste from the mobile site

This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Mar 25 2012, 08:58 AM
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Illinois blizzar...
post Mar 25 2012, 12:29 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Mar 25 2012, 08:51 AM) *
So close, yet so far away. Hopefully we can get something around here this time. ILX only mentions it in their HWO, nothing in the AFD
Edit, Having said that Forbes just mentioned on his Facebook that it looks rather moisture starved so storms may have a hard time forming. Only gives an isolated severe chance in central/northeast MO and central IL. TorCon 2-3. I can't copy and paste from the mobile site


Too far away, hopefully it holds out and gives us something good wink.gif

Yeah just read it, common ILX, get in the game laugh.gif

Here it is by forbes:
QUOTE
Dr. Greg Forbes
TUE MAR 27
It looks rather dry ahead of the cold front, so thunderstorms may struggle to form. Isolated severe thunderstorms in central and northeast MO, central IL. TORCON - 2 to 3


This post has been edited by Illinois blizzard: Mar 25 2012, 01:56 PM


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joseph507123
post Mar 25 2012, 02:44 PM
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It doesn't look that great. sad.gif


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The Snowman
post Mar 25 2012, 03:31 PM
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Finally, a slight risk around my neck of the woods. biggrin.gif
Modest instability, 50 kt veering flow- a pretty good set-up. Let's hope it does something with it.


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jdrenken
post Mar 25 2012, 03:40 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Mar 25 2012, 03:31 PM) *
Finally, a slight risk around my neck of the woods. biggrin.gif
Modest instability, 50 kt veering flow- a pretty good set-up. Let's hope it does something with it.


Izzi isn't convinced.

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
311 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TRACK EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN
DOESNT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED FROM THE
STRONGER/DEEPER ASCENT THAT OCCURS FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACK. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH
OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS FRONTAL TIMING IS LESS THAN IDEAL AND
MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH MARGINAL TO DECENT AT BEST. HAVE
MAINTAINED JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS.


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QUOTE
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StormChaserCK19
post Mar 25 2012, 03:48 PM
Post #19




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From: Bowling Green, KY
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Well, as unimpressive as this threat looks lol, I may still gamble and chase cause it's close and I have yet to chase since March 2 when i had a horrible day. Not a fan of the veering surface winds, lack of moisture, and forcing. However, if dews can manage to get into the low 60s across e/ne IA into extreme sw WI, nw IL there may be a chance at a brief, weak tornado where the surface winds are not so much veered and the shear overlaps the instability.



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StormChaserCK19
post Mar 25 2012, 03:57 PM
Post #20




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From: Bowling Green, KY
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Mar 25 2012, 03:31 PM) *
Finally, a slight risk around my neck of the woods. biggrin.gif
Modest instability, 50 kt veering flow- a pretty good set-up. Let's hope it does something with it.


veering surface winds are never a good sign if you want to chase tornadoes lol...


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