April 6-10 Southwest (So. Cal) High Pressure Ridge, Rebuilding high pressure to warm up SoCal through Tuesday. Options

[Beck]

03/26/12: It will start to feel more like Spring and less like Winter in Southern California, as a high pressure ridge (which have been largely absent recently) latches onto SoCal for a little while. Highs will generally be varying through the 70s for the rest of this week for inland areas, cooler for coastal and mountain areas.

It's very unclear as of this moment, but there is the potential for another storm to affect California around April 3rd. The NWS and CPC are not acknowledging this, however.




This post has been edited by Beck: Apr 5 2012, 08:26 PM

[Jet Developer]

How can NorCal have above normal precip and above normal temperatures?

Also, I'm not sure how accurate these long range forecasts are with our lovely coastal microclimates and bone-chilling, near-record-cold SSTs.

[Beck]

How can NorCal have above normal precip and above normal temperatures?

Also, I'm not sure how accurate these long range forecasts are with our lovely coastal microclimates and bone-chilling, near-record-cold SSTs.

Well, if nothing else - it will at least by dry for all of us, save some marine layer drizzle possible over the next couple of mornings.

[Beck]

Not much excitement as a lackluster rainy season winds down (as if it ever wound up in the first place), and mild Spring weather looms ahead.

I received my newly bought Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2 Wireless weather station today, which I purchased online a week ago from ambientweather for $545. Still waiting for the mounting pole to get here, as I will be mounting the station above the roof of my house. I just spent the last 4 hours assembling it and testing it - works like a charm, I can't wait to install it outside. Came with a tipping-bucket rain gauge (it's HUGE and meets NWS specifications for statistical accuracy), a solar-shielded outdoor temperature/humidity sensor, a wind sensor & vane, and an indoor wireless transmitter/station. I'll post pictures when it's installed later this week or early next week, I hope to stream data live online for all to see.

[Jet Developer]

Looks like they're not so sure about that ridge for next week.

From 9 PM NWS San Diego Forecast Discussion:

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY
BEGIN TO DIVERGE. DGEX AND GFS DEVELOP A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS BROAD TROUGHING...AND THE
CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THIS WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS...OR CONTINUED COOL ONSHORE FLOW WITH MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE GONE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...BUT LEANING MORE
TOWARDS THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED.

[vb3347]

I received my newly bought Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2 Wireless weather station today, which I purchased online a week ago from ambientweather for $545. Still waiting for the mounting pole to get here, as I will be mounting the station above the roof of my house. I just spent the last 4 hours assembling it and testing it - works like a charm, I can't wait to install it outside. Came with a tipping-bucket rain gauge (it's HUGE and meets NWS specifications for statistical accuracy), a solar-shielded outdoor temperature/humidity sensor, a wind sensor & vane, and an indoor wireless transmitter/station. I'll post pictures when it's installed later this week or early next week, I hope to stream data live online for all to see.

Excellent choice, can't wait to see the pics!

[idecline]

So I guess the storm hitting far Northern California as we speak isn't in the West?

I know most of the people here are in SoCal, but look at the satellite loop once in a while....

It is pouring right now in Eureka, the winds here in Santa Cruz are blowing 10-20 mph from the SW.
We will be getting rain sometimeearly Tuesday morning with rain persisting into Wednesday. If I am not mistaken most of Southern California's storms come from the North, and this one is sliding Southward....
Mind you it may not reach SoCal but the Bay Area is going to get very wet. Also there are many more storms lining up in the Pacific, and several of them could reach California.

Not to be rude but this thread is about the West( mainly California...yes) but SoCal is not all of California..

[idecline]

How can NorCal have above normal precip and above normal temperatures?

Also, I'm not sure how accurate these long range forecasts are with our lovely coastal microclimates and bone-chilling, near-record-cold SSTs.

Northern California will have above average rain if these storms continue on the track the have been on.
The reason they predict above average temperatures is probably because the days are longer and without an inversion layer formed by stagnant air, the valleys get warmer and the coast stays warmer without as much fog. That is my guess at least....

As far as the SST's ...we have hovering around 50F to 54F water off of the Central Coast most of the year.
The Humboldt current has been cold, and is bringing the coldest water all the way down towards SoCal.
The recent storms and wind allow for even more upwelling so when storms hit SoCal the coastal waters cool with more upwelling. My personal feeling is that this will moderate soon and SoCal may get a slight warm-up in SST's in the coming weeks...especially as the La Nina continues to be less vigorous in time.

[Beck]

So I guess the storm hitting far Northern California as we speak isn't in the West?

I know most of the people here are in SoCal, but look at the satellite loop once in a while....

It is pouring right now in Eureka, the winds here in Santa Cruz are blowing 10-20 mph from the SW.
We will be getting rain sometimeearly Tuesday morning with rain persisting into Wednesday. If I am not mistaken most of Southern California's storms come from the North, and this one is sliding Southward....
Mind you it may not reach SoCal but the Bay Area is going to get very wet. Also there are many more storms lining up in the Pacific, and several of them could reach California.

Not to be rude but this thread is about the West( mainly California...yes) but SoCal is not all of California..

I never heard or saw any indication of a storm hitting Central and Northern California, my apologies. The thread title has been changed. Feel free to create a thread of your own regarding the activity there if you wish.

Northern California will have above average rain if these storms continue on the track the have been on.
The reason they predict above average temperatures is probably because the days are longer and without an inversion layer formed by stagnant air, the valleys get warmer and the coast stays warmer without as much fog. That is my guess at least....

As far as the SST's ...we have hovering around 50F to 54F water off of the Central Coast most of the year.
The Humboldt current has been cold, and is bringing the coldest water all the way down towards SoCal.
The recent storms and wind allow for even more upwelling so when storms hit SoCal the coastal waters cool with more upwelling. My personal feeling is that this will moderate soon and SoCal may get a slight warm-up in SST's in the coming weeks...especially as the La Nina continues to be less vigorous in time.

Coming out of a second-year La Nina, I should hope that SST's will warm up and escape the extremely cool phase they've been trapped in for the past two years. Of course, we don't want warmer-than-normal SST's again either, and it's pretty unlikely that will happen anytime soon.

[idecline]

I never heard or saw any indication of a storm hitting Central and Northern California, my apologies. The thread title has been changed. Feel free to create a thread of your own regarding the activity there if you wish.
Coming out of a second-year La Nina, I should hope that SST's will warm up and escape the extremely cool phase they've been trapped in for the past two years. Of course, we don't want warmer-than-normal SST's again either, and it's pretty unlikely that will happen anytime soon.

hey Beck! s'Ok....I was just indulging in a little NorCal/SoCal bantering which is all in good fun...
We do get a lot more rain up here than you do, and I still feel shorted when the storms only bring a tenth or quarter of an inch of rain...but it's all relative I guess...In San Jose I used to feel like you guys with it being so much drier than the North Bay or the Santa Cruz Mountains...I am used to the 50-60 inches we get up in the hills here. One or two inches of rain in a day is nothing up there but in the valleys that would be quite a lot..

ps. I did start a new thread for the (Northern) California rain storm....

[Beck]

hey Beck! s'Ok....I was just indulging in a little NorCal/SoCal bantering which is all in good fun...
We do get a lot more rain up here than you do, and I still feel shorted when the storms only bring a tenth or quarter of an inch of rain...but it's all relative I guess...In San Jose I used to feel like you guys with it being so much drier than the North Bay or the Santa Cruz Mountains...I am used to the 50-60 inches we get up in the hills here. One or two inches of rain in a day is nothing up there but in the valleys that would be quite a lot..

ps. I did start a new thread for the (Northern) California rain storm....

Thanks

Some areas in SoCal (valleys, deserts) could get up to 80F on Friday if the NWS is correct, but then 10 degrees cooler on Saturday.

[Beck]

Interesting "On this day...." fact:

1988: Santa Ana weather brought 90-degree temperatures all over the region starting 3/25 and
ending on this day. It was 102° in Santee on 3/25, 97° throughout the San Diego Valleys on all
three days, and 90° in San Diego on 3/26. Several brush fires resulted. It was 101° in Borrego
Springs, the highest temperature on record for March. This also occurred on 3/31/1989. This is
also the earliest date in the season that the temperature hit the century mark.

[socalstormlover]

So I guess the storm hitting far Northern California as we speak isn't in the West?

I know most of the people here are in SoCal, but look at the satellite loop once in a while....

It is pouring right now in Eureka, the winds here in Santa Cruz are blowing 10-20 mph from the SW.
We will be getting rain sometimeearly Tuesday morning with rain persisting into Wednesday. If I am not mistaken most of Southern California's storms come from the North, and this one is sliding Southward....
Mind you it may not reach SoCal but the Bay Area is going to get very wet. Also there are many more storms lining up in the Pacific, and several of them could reach California.

Not to be rude but this thread is about the West( mainly California...yes) but SoCal is not all of California..

^^This^^

[Beck]

Downtown L.A. just needs another 0.30" between now and June 30th to escape the Top 10 Driest Winters on record list. Right now it's at #8 with 6.93" inches recorded there since July 1st, 2011.

However, as we enter April and leave the wettest part of a lackluster rain season behind us, even just 0.30" is a lot to ask.....and computer forecast models are currently not indicating any storms (0.10"+) affecting SoCal through the first half of April, but that could change. We'll see!

This post has been edited by Beck: Mar 28 2012, 12:55 AM

[Beck]

After a trough passes through the area this weekend, Spring-like temperatures are expected to return again starting Monday, bringing us well into the upper 70s.

[Beck]

The sky went from completely clear this morning to almost completely overcast this afternoon across Southern California, as a weak moisture-starved system passes to our north. Some areas may get sprinkles this afternoon, and virga can be seen falling from some clouds but evaporating before it can reach the ground, because the atmosphere is too dry to support it.

The next two days will be warmer, with highs in the upper 70s in the valleys. Winds up to 25mph are possible Friday. A low pressure trough will pass through the area on Saturday, bringing down temperatures a good 10-15 degrees, but there is very little moisture associated with it. Temperatures are expected to warm again around Monday.

[FrostFuzz]

Looking to approach 80 here on Friday before a weak front passes and possibly brings a bit of drizzle. After that it will be more of what southern California is famous for, at least until toward the end of the week where there is a slight chance of rain. That is quite a ways out though so we will see what happens.

[Jet Developer]

OK, I am getting really, really sick of this now. Chance of rain AGAIN this weekend and apparently next weekend as well. That would be 4 yucky weekends in a row. Really, who cares if it's in the 70s or 80s when you HAVE TO WORK!!!!

Are we going to need to wait until late June/early July for a nice weekend, or will the cycle be thrown off into a stupid weekday, nice weekend pattern sometime?

This post has been edited by Jet Developer: Mar 29 2012, 10:01 AM

[Beck]

OK, I am getting really, really sick of this now. Chance of rain AGAIN this weekend and apparently next weekend as well. That would be 4 yucky weekends in a row. Really, who cares if it's in the 70s or 80s when you HAVE TO WORK!!!!

Are we going to need to wait until late June/early July for a nice weekend, or will the cycle be thrown off into a stupid weekday, nice weekend pattern sometime?

Well as we enter April, the rainy season is coming to an end, and it's certainly possible that we'll continue having an early May Gray/June Gloom pattern again this Spring, a trend that started in 2010. With that brings higher probabilities that we may see rain, given the abundance of low pressure troughs and onshore flow - but now we must also factor in the weak rainy season we've had this winter. That throws it into a 50/50 chance that we may get storms that bring us over 0.10" inch of rain through late May.

Downtown Los Angeles only needs another 0.30" inch of rain between now and June 30th to escape the Top 10 Driest Winters list. It could happen, but in a dry winter like this, there's just no telling what could happen.

Historically in Southern California, rainfall in April & May during La Nina episodes tends from vary from year to year. Let's take a look at some recent La Nina episodes and Spring rainfall in those years:

1998-99: April - 2.57" May - 0.02"
1999-00: April - 1.49" May - 0.00"
2000-01: April - 1.11" May - 0.00"
2005-06: April - 2.15" May - 0.85"
2007-08: April - 0.04" May - 0.11"
2008-09: April - 0.03" May - 0.00"
2010-11: April - 0.00" May - 0.45"
Historical
Average: April - 0.83" May - 0.31"

Rainfall in April & May in Southern California has fallen by the wayside in recent La Nina years, whereas it used to be a lot wetter. As of now there is currently no significant rainfall in sight for Socal. We'll see!

[alxz310]

Starting Monday I have two weeks off, so will try to enjoy mid-week at some 70s are forecasted . As for this weekend, it looks nothing more than a few very light showers at best