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> April 3-6 West Unsettled Pattern: WA, OR wet..CA dry?, Observations and last minute forecasts...
idecline
post Mar 27 2012, 02:07 AM
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Well we have another good reason to split the State of California in half.....The weather..... laugh.gif

Attached Image

A really vigorous jet stream is quickly bringing in yet another storm to Northern California as we speak.

The continued track of storms has been aiming right at Northern and Central California, but in this strange weather year I would not be surprised to see more showers reach the Southland by this week's end.
The winds coming in right now seem to agree that this storm is more potent than the last one with more moisture being entrained into the pattern...this could be a surprisingly wet Spring after all...
except for moisture starved Southern California, especially the Inland Empire and high deserts...but
the rainfall in California has always fallen off dramatically as you go North to South, especially south of Pt. Conception. The coast is orientated NW/SE along much of California, and veers sharply East past Pt. Conception...that is often why storms cannot make it all the way to the LA Basin and San Diego areas when they come down from the NW..Think about it Lake Tahoe is further West than LA.... blink.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Apr 3 2012, 05:47 AM


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"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Mar 27 2012, 08:44 AM
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It has already rained about .20 inches in Santa Cruz this morning. A lot of wind came through then a light rain for about an hour and a half. The main energy of this front is still offshore, the winds are still strong from the S/SW at about 10mph with gusts to 20-25 mph. Anywhere from .50" in the valleys to 1-2 inches of rain is expected around the Bay Area by Wednesday.

The Sierras will benefit from this storm sitting offshore and bringing bands of precipitation over the State for the next day and a half. The jet is supposed to jog a bit North on Thursday into Friday but another wet storm could affect the whole State on the weekend.

All idee can say is ....Keep It Coming....


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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Beck
post Mar 27 2012, 10:28 AM
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According to the NWS, San Francisco is 9.20" inches below normal, and San Jose is 8.57" inches below normal - many parts of Northern and Central California may be experiencing a drier winter than most SoCal locations.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.45" (+0.27")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.18"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.81"

Temecula Weather Pages

QUOTE(wingsovernc @ Sep 13 2014, 04:20 PM) *
You're cute when you're whining Becky :)
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socalstormlover
post Mar 27 2012, 08:22 PM
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Here at the Arcata highlands (Eureka area) We have been getting socked by rain the last 3 weeks..This recent wet spell has been called a march miracle for us in extreme Northern California after one of the driest winters in 130+ years..We have plenty more rain to come with with no significant break of rain in sight until early next week..If this rain keeps up as it has been the Eureka bay/Marshlands and low lying areas will see some pretty major runoff and quite possibly significant flooding...I will be sure to take pictures if anything happens wink.gif Here is the local statement from the NWS Eureka Office:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
426 PM PDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME DRIER
WEATHER AND EVEN SOME SUNNY BREAKS NEAR THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR THE NORTH COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
EVEN MORE HEAVY RAIN SPREADING SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DYNAMIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL COASTAL JET AND LF QUAD OF UPPER LEVEL JET CROSSING
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BACK EDGE OF INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE EVIDENT
OFFSHORE THE MENDOCINO COAST AND DRIER AIR EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE WILL BEGIN TO WRAP IN AROUND THE OCCLUDING CYCLONE TONIGHT
BUT SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OUR NORTHERN
COAST WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...ENHANCING RAINFALL. BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS
PRESSURES RISE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONT BUT WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF MIXING.
GIVEN SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE NEAR THE UPPER LOW...NEG
TILT TROUGH ALONG WITH H5 TEMPS IN THE -25 TO -30C RANGE AND ML
LAPSE RATES 6 TO 7 DEG C AND NEAR NEG LIFTED INDICIES...OPTED TO ADD
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THINK IF ANYTHING THE FORECAST MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC
AT THE COAST AS WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH DRY AIR AND MIXING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE AS UPPER TROUGH FILLS AND HEIGHTS RISE. CURRENT WINTER
STORM WARNING LOOKS GOOD FOR AREAS ABOVE 4000 FEET ALTHOUGH MESONET
OBS AND WEBCAMS INDICATE RAIN AT ALL THE MAJOR PASSES ON 299 AND
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES...SO SOME CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS LIKELY
OCCURRING NEAR AND ABOVE 4000 FEET. WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED AND SNOW LEVELS WILL COME DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH SHOWERY PRECIP CONTINUING INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY.
THINK SOME SNOWBURSTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF A
FEW INCHES DOWN AROUND 2800-3000FT PASS LEVEL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN AS UPPER DYNAMIC
WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE RAPIDLY INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AGAIN UNTIL SATURDAY.
MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE AND BETTER CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY LL
JET WILL FOCUS FROM THE KING RANGE ON NORTHWARD SO THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN RAINFALL HEADING SOUTH TOWARD MENDOCINO COUNTY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH. THIS
WILL CHANGE AS STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE AHEAD OF A COUPLE POTENT
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN
FURTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF
HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS THE HYDRO SET-UP WITH
ALREADY OVER-SATURATED SOILS AND RAPIDLY RISING RIVERS
. SIGNS OF A
BREAK IN THE PATTERN BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT EXPECT AREAS
CLOSER TO THE OREGON BORDER TO CONTINUE TO BE WET...IN FACT LATEST
GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DAMP THROUGH THE PERIOD. AAD
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LALEO
post Mar 27 2012, 08:30 PM
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QUOTE(Beck @ Mar 27 2012, 07:28 AM) *
According to the NWS, San Francisco is 9.20" inches below normal, and San Jose is 8.57" inches below normal - many parts of Northern and Central California may be experiencing a drier winter than most SoCal locations.


Oh yea, There are parts of Central and Nor Cal in much worse shape than we are.


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Season Totals.

Precipitation Total 5.94" - Last Updated March. 02, 2014

Last Accumulation/Event 3.88" - March. 02 , 2014
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Beck
post Mar 27 2012, 09:07 PM
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QUOTE(LALEO @ Mar 27 2012, 06:30 PM) *
Oh yea, There are parts of Central and Nor Cal in much worse shape than we are.

We were the same way for most of the winter until the last part of February. Several moderate storms since then have boosted our totals just enough to get us out of the red. However, even today, Downtown L.A. is still reporting it's 8th driest winter since records began in 1877.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.45" (+0.27")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.18"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.81"

Temecula Weather Pages

QUOTE(wingsovernc @ Sep 13 2014, 04:20 PM) *
You're cute when you're whining Becky :)
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idecline
post Mar 28 2012, 12:21 AM
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QUOTE(LALEO @ Mar 27 2012, 08:30 PM) *
Oh yea, There are parts of Central and Nor Cal in much worse shape than we are.


Yes, but if this Spring pattern holds we are quickly catching up....

Right now it is raining heavily with gusty SW winds 20-30 mph and a warm 56F temperature. That usually means ample moisture and this storm is trying desperately to entrain some tropical moisture that is feeding west from near Hawaii. If this continues as it is storming right now, this could be the most vigorous, wettest storm of the year here in Central California...there will be no rain shadows with the energy being pulled in so powerfully by the jet stream. We may not match the four day totals of some of our slower moving weaker fronts, but this is a real exciting storm up here and Eureka has been getting pounded up North...


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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LALEO
post Mar 28 2012, 01:13 AM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Mar 27 2012, 09:21 PM) *
Yes, but if this Spring pattern holds we are quickly catching up....

Right now it is raining heavily with gusty SW winds 20-30 mph and a warm 56F temperature. That usually means ample moisture and this storm is trying desperately to entrain some tropical moisture that is feeding west from near Hawaii. If this continues as it is storming right now, this could be the most vigorous, wettest storm of the year here in Central California...there will be no rain shadows with the energy being pulled in so powerfully by the jet stream. We may not match the four day totals of some of our slower moving weaker fronts, but this is a real exciting storm up here and Eureka has been getting pounded up North...


Let's not get ahead of ourselves now. I can't remember how many times this year the models depicted copious amounts of rain for the northern two thirds of California, Yet "never" came to fruition any of those times. I just don't see that Hawaiin moisture hooking up with the "main jet flow" up around 35 degrees...Gotta take a wait and see approach.


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Season Totals.

Precipitation Total 5.94" - Last Updated March. 02, 2014

Last Accumulation/Event 3.88" - March. 02 , 2014
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alxz310
post Mar 28 2012, 01:20 AM
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It looks like storms continue streaming into the West coast for some time, with no real ridge/block forming off the coast. Hopefully at least one of those bring us a bit more rain down here in SoCal.

This post has been edited by alxz310: Mar 28 2012, 01:21 AM


--------------------
Davis, CA

Seasonal Rainfall: 0.00"

Average to Date (End Month): -.--"

Monthly Rainfall (September): 0.00"
Average: -.--"

Average Temps (September)

Average High: --F
Actual to Date: --F

Average Low: --F
Actual to Date: --F

Record High: ---F
Record Low: --F
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socalstormlover
post Mar 28 2012, 05:02 PM
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Accuweather has ramped up predicted rainfall for the eureka area to over 5 inches in the next few days! My area does get some orographic lift so i am expecting around a half of foot of rain or more cool.gif
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LALEO
post Mar 28 2012, 05:31 PM
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QUOTE(socalstormlover @ Mar 28 2012, 02:02 PM) *
Accuweather has ramped up predicted rainfall for the eureka area to over 5 inches in the next few days! My area does get some orographic lift so i am expecting around a half of foot of rain or more cool.gif


So much for that ample hawaiin subtropical tap, laugh.gif Sad thing is the northern two thirds of Cali are still going to be below normal in terms of rainfall for most cities..Only places that will be close to normal are favored mountains where they get the orographic enhancement. Those places having normal totals is certainly nothing to write home about, as those totals are expected with some storms. At any rate, This storm you speak of is also going to be moving through very quickly which will limit a lot of what I believe are overdone QPF totals. Furthermore, A LOT can change in 48 hours in the weather world.


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Season Totals.

Precipitation Total 5.94" - Last Updated March. 02, 2014

Last Accumulation/Event 3.88" - March. 02 , 2014
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socalstormlover
post Mar 28 2012, 06:29 PM
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QUOTE(LALEO @ Mar 28 2012, 03:31 PM) *
So much for that ample hawaiin subtropical tap, laugh.gif Sad thing is the northern two thirds of Cali are still going to be below normal in terms of rainfall for most cities..Only places that will be close to normal are favored mountains where they get the orographic enhancement. Those places having normal totals is certainly nothing to write home about, as those totals are expected with some storms. At any rate, This storm you speak of is also going to be moving through very quickly which will limit a lot of what I believe are overdone QPF totals. Furthermore, A LOT can change in 48 hours in the weather world.


This storm is supposed to give us heavy rain from Thursday all the way through early sunday..I don't expect this storm "to be moving through very quickly" laugh.gif ...check out what the NWS Eureka is expecting..
NWS Eureka Office:
"A STEADY STREAM OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BRING 3 TO 8
INCHES TO MOST AREAS. DEL NORTE COUNTY AND RAIN PRONE AREAS IN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY MAY EXPERIENCE VALUES OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 16 INCHES." blink.gif

This post has been edited by socalstormlover: Mar 28 2012, 06:33 PM
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LALEO
post Mar 28 2012, 06:56 PM
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QUOTE(socalstormlover @ Mar 28 2012, 03:29 PM) *
This storm is supposed to give us heavy rain from Thursday all the way through early sunday..I don't expect this storm "to be moving through very quickly" laugh.gif ...check out what the NWS Eureka is expecting..
NWS Eureka Office:
"A STEADY STREAM OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BRING 3 TO 8
INCHES TO MOST AREAS. DEL NORTE COUNTY AND RAIN PRONE AREAS IN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY MAY EXPERIENCE VALUES OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 16 INCHES." blink.gif


You obviously did not read my post...This storm regardless of how much rain it dumps in the highest peaks..Helll it could dump 8 feet of rain, but that does absolutely NOTHING for the city of San Francisco for example who may get 1.5" of rain, except move them a bit closer to being not soo extreme in the negative.

Here is the excerpt for SF.

A VIGOROUS LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MANIFEST INTO A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT
. rolleyes.gif

.ALTHOUGH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT HEAVY
RAINS FROM FALLING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF
TIME.

This post has been edited by LALEO: Mar 28 2012, 07:03 PM


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Season Totals.

Precipitation Total 5.94" - Last Updated March. 02, 2014

Last Accumulation/Event 3.88" - March. 02 , 2014
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socalstormlover
post Mar 28 2012, 07:57 PM
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QUOTE(LALEO @ Mar 28 2012, 04:56 PM) *
You obviously did not read my post...This storm regardless of how much rain it dumps in the highest peaks..Helll it could dump 8 feet of rain, but that does absolutely NOTHING for the city of San Francisco for example who may get 1.5" of rain, except move them a bit closer to being not soo extreme in the negative.

Here is the excerpt for SF.

A VIGOROUS LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MANIFEST INTO A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT
. rolleyes.gif

.ALTHOUGH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT HEAVY
RAINS FROM FALLING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF
TIME.


I agree with what you are saying however up here in the redwood curtain this system is going to be anything but fast moving..
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idecline
post Mar 30 2012, 08:18 PM
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QUOTE(LALEO @ Mar 28 2012, 06:56 PM) *
You obviously did not read my post...This storm regardless of how much rain it dumps in the highest peaks..Helll it could dump 8 feet of rain, but that does absolutely NOTHING for the city of San Francisco for example who may get 1.5" of rain, except move them a bit closer to being not soo extreme in the negative.

Here is the excerpt for SF.

A VIGOROUS LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MANIFEST INTO A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT
. rolleyes.gif

.ALTHOUGH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT HEAVY
RAINS FROM FALLING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF
TIME.


Yes...but....
QUOTE(socalstormlover @ Mar 28 2012, 07:57 PM) *
I agree with what you are saying however up here in the redwood curtain this system is going to be anything but fast moving..


The rain keeps coming....last year it rained on and off until almost June in Northern and Central California.. wink.gif

Attached Image


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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NorEaster07
post Apr 2 2012, 08:11 PM
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Suprised there's never any NorthWest threads here.

Anyway - Here's Mt. Rainier, WA forecast next 5 days. 2 to 4....FEET.

Does anyone know if they will surpass last years total or a record?


Attached Image




I put this together from the awesome webcams there. http://www.nps.gov/mora/photosmultimedia/v...nter-webcam.htm


Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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idecline
post Apr 3 2012, 05:37 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 2 2012, 08:11 PM) *
Suprised there's never any NorthWest threads here.

Anyway - Here's Mt. Rainier, WA forecast next 5 days. 2 to 4....FEET.

Does anyone know if they will surpass last years total or a record?


Attached Image

I put this together from the awesome webcams there. http://www.nps.gov/mora/photosmultimedia/v...nter-webcam.htm


Attached Image


Thanks!

The West will be impacted by a series of storms this week with most of the energy staying north and a cooler push of air into the NorthWest and Northern California...Southern California may get a slight cool down with the ridge quickly rebounding for a warmer weekend throughout California.

Attached Image

The front is getting stretched apart, it is trying to funnel energy from near Hawaii but looks like a mere sip of juice versus the good old "Pineapple Express" of moisture rich warm storms.

Just another in a series of weaker storms that are not impacting the areas that need the rain most...


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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