March 30-31 Eastern Canada Storm, Cogitation: Short Range [1-3 days out] forecasts Options

[Torontoweather]

LOL?!?!?!
00z NAM:


It is the long-range NAM, but I just saw this, and was laughing too much that I couldn't resist posting it... Let's see what comes of it!

[bigmt]

If it weren't for the horrible luck in terms of precip type this year, receiving some snow now wouldn't seem outlandish. In some ways it would be more strange to not see any more even at this point but the way things have shaped up strange is the name-of-the-game.

The 06z NAM @ hour 66:

 nam_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.91K ) Number of downloads: 1


Precip type:

 USA_PTYPE_sfc_066.gif ( 17.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


06z GFS @ hour 63:

 gfs_namer_063_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 61.64K ) Number of downloads: 0

[JJ Snowlover]

Thankfully this misses Ottawa, scrapping the ice pellets and freezing rain off the windsheild this morning is enough for me. Winter, I'm done with you

[Ryan45]

Would be nice but not sure if i want it after these warm temps.....

OH MY GOD PLEASE SNOW!

[bigmt]

12z NAM @ hour 57:

 nam_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.14K ) Number of downloads: 1


Precip type:

 USA_PTYPE_sfc_057.gif ( 17.88K ) Number of downloads: 0


24-hour snowfall @ hour 63:

 USA_ASNOW24_sfc_063.gif ( 25.13K ) Number of downloads: 5

[TriC]

It would melt as soon as it hits anything... down here in Southwestern Ontario and we don't even have temps bellow 0c in the long range for night time lows. and day time highs over the two days of that system are 7c to 13c

This post has been edited by TriC: Mar 28 2012, 11:51 AM

[an uncanny otter]

It would melt as soon as it hits anything... down here in Southwestern Ontario and we don't even have temps bellow 0c in the long range for night time lows. and day time highs over the two days of that system are 7c to 13c

If it is snowing hard enough, snow can start to accumulate even with warm sfc temps. That being said, I'm not holding out for anything other than maybe 1 cm or 2. That's all it would take to double our March total.

[Torontoweather]

YUP!
00z NAM:

[blizzardOf96]

YUP!
00z NAM:

Is that possible for the GTA?????

[Torontoweather]

Is that possible for the GTA?????

well sure it's possible... Events like that have happened before in the history of the GTA, and even bigger... probable: no

[bigmt]

http://www.theweathernetwork.com

 524809_391110744240486_126312660720297_1500277_280095492_n.jpg ( 92.13K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SW..._e.html?prov=on

WOCN11 CWTO 291031
Special weather statement
Issued by Environment Canada
At 6:31 AM EDT Thursday 29 March 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= City of Toronto
=new= London - Middlesex
=new= Oxford - Brant
=new= Niagara
=new= City of Hamilton
=new= Halton - Peel
=new= York - Durham
=new= Huron - Perth
=new= Waterloo - Wellington
=new= Dufferin - Innisfil
=new= Grey - Bruce
=new= Barrie - Orillia - Midland
=new= Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
=new= Kingston - Prince Edward
=new= Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes.

Potential appreciable snow to round out the month of March.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
March may have come in like a lamb, but it may leave like a lion. The
recent record warm spell may be cool comfort by Friday night as snow
appears likely in many areas of Southern Ontario. A disturbance is
taking shape over Kansas this morning and will track just south of
the Lower Great Lakes later on Friday. A band of precipitation will
accompany it, falling primarily as rain in the southwest, but a
Swath of snow and ice pellets appears likely from the shores of Lake
Huron eastwards to Lake Ontario and north towards Georgian Bay. It
will begin Friday afternoon near Lake Huron and reach Toronto later
in the day.

There is significant uncertainty as to the accumulation at this time.
But a swath of 5 centimetres is possible from roughly Southern Lake
Huron to around the west end of Lake Ontario. Somewhat lesser amounts
will fall both north and south of this band. There is some risk of
higher amounts, due to the rather heavy nature of the snow at times.

The snow will likely impact Friday evening rush hour traffic.
Temperatures will reach a few degrees above freezing Friday afternoon
but quickly drop to near or below freezing once the snow begins.
Drivers should exercise caution as untreated roads may become
slippery and snow-covered.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

06z NAM @ hour 45:

 nam_namer_045_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.98K ) Number of downloads: 3


24-hour snowfall @ hour 48:

 USA_ASNOW24_sfc_048.gif ( 24.86K ) Number of downloads: 6

[weatherman 23]

Go to love the NAM lol

[elder05]

while i was looking forward to getting everything in top shape for this coming chase season, i might as well get involved with this snow storm.

CMC has actually been portraying this system since early week, hinting at it's potential. And now the NAM has come on board.

last nights 00Z runs were something else.

Global scribe throws 20+ cm's over the golden horseshoe for what it's worth.

let's see what today's 12Z runs show

it is my birthday tomorrow, so it's only fitting we see snow.

[wx140]

All i can say is WOW at this system. Just when you thought winter was over it's going to come back at leat for a day.

[puttin]

while i was looking forward to getting everything in top shape for this coming chase season, i might as well get involved with this snow storm.

CMC has actually been portraying this system since early week, hinting at it's potential. And now the NAM has come on board.

last nights 00Z runs were something else.

Global scribe throws 20+ cm's over the golden horseshoe for what it's worth.

let's see what today's 12Z runs show

it is my birthday tomorrow, so it's only fitting we see snow.

Hey, happy birthday Elder... mine was yesterday. I am wanting spring back though....nice and warm with the smell of spring in the air.....

[elder05]

Hey, happy birthday Elder... mine was yesterday. I am wanting spring back though....nice and warm with the smell of spring in the air.....

thanks, and happy birthday to you too!

I'm totally wanting the warmth now, especially after my trip south, and the nice weather when i got back, but hey, if it's gonna happen, let'er be a doozy

[puttin]

thanks, and happy birthday to you too!

I'm totally wanting the warmth now, especially after my trip south, and the nice weather when i got back, but hey, if it's gonna happen, let'er be a doozy

Where south did you go? It was your honeymoon? That's sweet.

[Removed_Member_thehammer_*]

This sucks....it's supposed to snow in Dec-Feb, not now. not that I care, I'm headed to Florida this weekend. haha

[travis3000]

I will be shocked if this thing actually materializes. I was in shorts and sandals last week!! Now it's back to the winter boots and Canada Goose? Gotta love Canada. The NAM seems fairly sure that at least 5-10cm will fall in the hardest hit areas, maybe even more? I will be watching this very closely.

[elder05]

I will be shocked if this thing actually materializes. I was in shorts and sandals last week!! Now it's back to the winter boots and Canada Goose? Gotta love Canada. The NAM seems fairly sure that at least 5-10cm will fall in the hardest hit areas, maybe even more? I will be watching this very closely.

it'll be a very narrow band of snow, so the track of the system is extremely important. Evaporational cooling will also play a very large role.