March 30-31 Eastern Canada Storm, Cogitation: Short Range [1-3 days out] forecasts Options

[bigmt]

it is my birthday tomorrow, so it's only fitting we see snow.

Hey, happy birthday Elder... mine was yesterday. I am wanting spring back though....nice and warm with the smell of spring in the air.....

Happy birthday to both of you. A wintry present from nature incoming perhaps

Henry's snowfall map:

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The RGEM:

 06_054_R1_north_america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC_012_048.jpg ( 313.82K ) Number of downloads: 5


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12z NAM @ hour 36:

 nam_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 61.09K ) Number of downloads: 2


Precip type @ hour 35:

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Total snowfall @ hour 42:

 USA_ASNOWPER_sfc_042.gif ( 26.32K ) Number of downloads: 5

[JJ Snowlover]

Hey GTA, here's your snow you've been waiting for all year sorry couldn't resist

[weatherman 23]

12z NAM shifts the snow further SW around the Golden Horseshoe, K-W region

[weatherman 23]

12z GFS brings no snow for Toronto and the GTA

[Big Snowstorm 20...]

I actually was getting used to the warmth..its going to be all slush..yuck! Bad drive home tomorrow from work..and happy birthday Elder!

[elder05]

reg. p type of the 12Z CMC

[plowguy]

reg. p type of the 12Z CMC

Will I need the plows for this or just salt?

[elder05]

Will I need the plows for this or just salt?

that's tough. given that the ground is quite warm, a lot of this will melt on impact. depending on the intensity, which is yet to be determined, you may still need to plow

[Torontoweather]

reg. p type of the 12Z CMC

Woow, all snow for Toronto and fairly heavy as well... Do you know how much snow verbatim that shows for the GTA?

[Removed_Member_thehammer_*]

reg. p type of the 12Z CMC

Beautiful...Hamilton is in the bullseye 24 hours out...that means we'll get virtually nothing. LOL. I love snow, but NOT NOW.

[plowguy]

that's tough. given that the ground is quite warm, a lot of this will melt on impact. depending on the intensity, which is yet to be determined, you may still need to plow

Thanks Elder. I will wait until the morning to see if we should put all 23 on...this stinks i've already cut my lawn and had the pool open since the 13th

[elder05]

Woow, all snow for Toronto and fairly heavy as well... Do you know how much snow verbatim that shows for the GTA?

working on it. I'm waiting to hear about the scribe from the 12z global....will let you know if i hear anything back

[elder05]

Regional scribe shows 15.9cm of snow - most of that from 2pm - 8pm (14.8cm worth) winds NE 30-40kph.

Global scribe shows 3.3cm of snow - most of that from 5pm-8pm. ENE winds 20-25kph.

Go regionals!

(For Hamilton)

[bigmt]

Some maps from the 12z Euro in progress.

Hour 48:

 12zeuro850mbTSLPUS048.gif ( 59.84K ) Number of downloads: 2


Snowfall @ hour 36:

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Hour 39:

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Hour 42:

 eurosnow42.jpg ( 481.88K ) Number of downloads: 2

[Ryan45]

So... how much for ham/burlington??

[bigmt]

Latest SWS from EC.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SW..._e.html?prov=on

WOCN11 CWTO 291911
Special weather statement
Updated by Environment Canada
At 3:11 PM EDT Thursday 29 March 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
=new= Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
City of Toronto
London - Middlesex
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes.

Potential for appreciable snow and freezing rain to round out the
month of March.


---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
A disturbance developing over Kansas this afternoon will track just
south of Lake Erie later on Friday. An area of precipitation will
accompany it, falling primarily as rain in the southwest, but snow
and ice pellets are expected from the shores of Lake Huron
southeastward to Eastern Lake Erie and northward to Georgian Bay.
The snow and ice pellets will begin Friday afternoon near Lake Huron
and reach Eastern Lake Erie and Western Lake Ontario later in the
day. In addition, a swath of freezing rain appears likely along the
rain snow boundary from Grand Bend to the eastern shores of Lake
Erie.

There is still significant uncertainty as to the snow accumulation
At this time. But a swath of 5 centimetres is possible from roughly
Southern Lake Huron to around the west end of Lake Ontario. Somewhat
lesser amounts will fall both north and south of this band. There is
some risk of higher amounts, due to the rather heavy nature of the
snow at times.

The snow and freezing rain will likely impact Friday evening rush
hour traffic. Temperatures will reach a few degrees above freezing
Friday afternoon but quickly drop to near or below freezing once the
snow begins. Drivers should exercise caution as untreated roads may
become slippery and snow-covered.

18z NAM @ hour 33:

 nam_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.97K ) Number of downloads: 1


Total snowfall @ hour 39:

 USA_ASNOWPER_sfc_039.gif ( 26.32K ) Number of downloads: 4

So... how much for ham/burlington??

5+cm could likely fall but the question is how much will be able to accumulate? Tricky situation but your chances are as good or better than anyone else's based on the track.

[weatherman 23]

Latest models don't look very impressive for Toronto/GTA. Same thing all winter lol

[bigmt]

TWN's take, broken down by specific regions.

http://t.co/AKS46hzx

March 29, 2012 — "A system moving in from the U.S. could bring a rain-snow mix to parts of southern Ontario Friday," says Rob Davis a meteorologist at The Weather Network. "The snow will begin Friday afternoon near Lake Huron and could reach the Toronto area by rush hour."

WHO COULD SEE WHAT

Windsor to London and east to Niagara: precipitation will fall mainly as rain until the evening hours where a line from London to Niagara will change over to mixed precipitation and then over snow.

Lake Huron east to the GTA: precipitation will fall in the afternoon as a rain-snow mix then change over to snow in the evening hours and continue overnight as snow.

Grey-Bruce east to Bellville, north to Peterborough-Kawarthas: precipitation should fall primarily as snow.

A general 2 - 4 cm of snow is possible from London to the Kawarthas and from Lake Huron to Niagara and Lake Ontario. There is the risk of slightly higher amounts from southern Lake Huron to the west end of Lake Ontario.

Forecasters at The Weather Network says it's important to recognize that this isn't a major winter storm, but one that could still catch people off guard.

"This is not a colossal snowstorm by any means," says Dayna Vettese, another meteorologist at The Weather Network. "But due to the recent summer weather Ontarians have been experiencing, many have removed snow tires and are unprepared to be commuting in winter weather."

There's also some mention of analog years at the end of the article based off the extremely unusual March heat (specifically 1945/46) and how they have occasionally translated into late-season snowfalls. I tried to roll forward a variety of analogs into April and the summer months in the Spring thread, 1945 & 46 included.

[tml78]

Latest SWS from EC.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SW..._e.html?prov=on
18z NAM @ hour 33:

 nam_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.97K ) Number of downloads: 1


Total snowfall @ hour 39:

 USA_ASNOWPER_sfc_039.gif ( 26.32K ) Number of downloads: 4

5+cm could likely fall but the question is how much will be able to accumulate? Tricky situation but your chances are as good or better than anyone else's based on the track.

global news & the weather network both saying 1cm or less...

[bigmt]

Latest models don't look very impressive for Toronto/GTA. Same thing all winter lol

global news & the weather network both saying 1cm or less...

It's going to be a battle to get snow to accumulate, but there's most likely going to be a narrow swath of snow and the latest runs have it farther south and less impressive. Another borderline situation; it would be little surprise if it failed to produce. Won't be pleasant for the evening commute for some areas regardless.