 Easter weekend |
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 Mar 28 2012, 02:47 PM
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#1
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Rank: Tornado  Group: Member Posts: 128 Joined: 4-December 09 Member No.: 19,969  |
Hey!
I know it's early but what can we expect for the Easter long weekend next week? It seems that the warmer weather will have a hard time getting to us in the east. It's snowing here today... hope it will not for Easter!! I want sunny and warm weather  ) (*finger crossed!) |
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Mar 28 2012, 03:02 PM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
QUOTE(TheFrenchman @ Mar 28 2012, 03:47 PM)  Hey! I know it's early but what can we expect for the Easter long weekend next week? It seems that the warmer weather will have a hard time getting to us in the east. It's snowing here today... hope it will not for Easter!! I want sunny and warm weather ) (*finger crossed!)Here's the 00z and 12z runs of the GFS. 
gfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 54.2K )
Number of downloads: 0
gfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 56.04K )
Number of downloads: 0Quite a difference between the two but at this range it's par-for-the-course. The 00z run brings that low through Eastern Canada by Monday. I'll keep this updated. |
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Mar 28 2012, 03:04 PM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
Also the 12z GFS ensembles @ hour 264:
12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS264.gif ( 40.41K )
Number of downloads: 0 |
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Mar 29 2012, 09:39 AM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
00z ECMWF @ hour 240:
f240.gif ( 103.09K )
Number of downloads: 0
00zeuro850mbTSLPNA240.gif ( 75.95K )
Number of downloads: 0 |
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Mar 29 2012, 09:49 AM
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#5
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,113 Joined: 23-November 10 From: Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 24,422 |
It looks like temps are going to be seasonal or only slightly above seasonal for the next 14 days, if not the rest of April. Last week TWN was forecasting the week of April 2 - 7 was going to be quite warm and near 15c a couple days, but now looks like the highest we get is maybe 10 or 11c for one day.
I knew it was going to be quite sometime before we see those warm heatwave temps again, like late May or June. It was actually kinda of a cruel tease... 
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Mar 29 2012, 01:17 PM
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#6
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 128 Joined: 4-December 09 Member No.: 19,969 |
QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 29 2012, 10:39 AM) 00z ECMWF @ hour 240:
f240.gif ( 103.09K )
Number of downloads: 0
00zeuro850mbTSLPNA240.gif ( 75.95K )
Number of downloads: 0omg... it's looking bad! Cloudy-rainy-cool... The GFS long range looks quite stormy too... It looks like a storm sit and spin over eastern Canada for days and days. Where is the nice weather ?! I'm not talking 25C... lol but at least 10C! too much to ask for the next 2 weeks at least  |
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Mar 29 2012, 01:24 PM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 828 Joined: 12-September 08 From: SW BC, Canada Member No.: 15,716 |
QUOTE(TheFrenchman @ Mar 29 2012, 11:17 AM) omg... it's looking bad! Cloudy-rainy-cool... The GFS long range looks quite stormy too... It looks like a storm sit and spin over eastern Canada for days and days. Where is the nice weather ?! I'm not talking 25C... lol but at least 10C! too much to ask for the next 2 weeks at least Most of the East has been nice from what I've been hearing. The West needs a reprieve. I wish for everyone to get nice weather though... We're at 160.1 mm accumulation so far. The average for March is 157 mm. |
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Mar 29 2012, 05:01 PM
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
12z ECMWF @ hour 240:
12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 58.25K )
Number of downloads: 112z ECMWF ensembles @ hour 240:
12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 45.48K )
Number of downloads: 012z GFS @ hour 240:
12zgfs850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 48.73K )
Number of downloads: 012z GFS ensembles @ hour 240:
12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 38.23K )
Number of downloads: 0The operational GFS is at odds with multiple members of it's own ensembles, here's an example:
12zensp002p06240.gif ( 42.87K )
Number of downloads: 0Overall there's more consensus for a high anchored over the southeast USA and subsequently a reasonably mild pattern for eastern Canada & a continuation of the cooler/wetter setup for the west coast, at least for the moment. Long way to go yet. |
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Mar 31 2012, 09:57 AM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
00z GFS @ hour 192:
00zgfs850mbTSLPNA192.gif ( 65.68K )
Number of downloads: 000z ECMWF @ hour 192:
00zeuro850mbTSLPNA192.gif ( 73.57K )
Number of downloads: 0 |
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Mar 31 2012, 10:15 AM
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#10
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 128 Joined: 4-December 09 Member No.: 19,969 |
QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 31 2012, 10:57 AM) 00z GFS @ hour 192:
00zgfs850mbTSLPNA192.gif ( 65.68K )
Number of downloads: 000z ECMWF @ hour 192:
00zeuro850mbTSLPNA192.gif ( 73.57K )
Number of downloads: 0...I'll take the Euro!! Warmer. But I think the GFS will "win"... |
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Mar 31 2012, 09:52 PM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,513 Joined: 28-September 10 From: Ottawa (Eastern Ontario) Member No.: 23,775 |
I've seen enough consistency that I believe the easter weekend will be warm. I expect at least one day to hit in the 20's from southern ontario straight through eastern onatrio and parts of southern Quebec.
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Apr 1 2012, 09:04 AM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,113 Joined: 23-November 10 From: Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 24,422 |
QUOTE(ottawasnowstorm @ Mar 31 2012, 09:52 PM) I've seen enough consistency that I believe the easter weekend will be warm. I expect at least one day to hit in the 20's from southern ontario straight through eastern onatrio and parts of southern Quebec. TWN says 16c on Sunday, and 13c for Saturday. Not too bad, I hope it sticks... |
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Apr 1 2012, 09:13 AM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,513 Joined: 28-September 10 From: Ottawa (Eastern Ontario) Member No.: 23,775 |
QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Apr 1 2012, 10:04 AM) TWN says 16c on Sunday, and 13c for Saturday. Not too bad, I hope it sticks... Yup! If it doesn't make the 20's, it should at least reach the mid to upper teens. I think it will overall be mild to warm. And the best part is that I'm off for all the 4 days. 
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Apr 1 2012, 02:21 PM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 828 Joined: 12-September 08 From: SW BC, Canada Member No.: 15,716 |
EC says 14C and 13C for me on Friday and Saturday.
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Apr 1 2012, 07:49 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
Hour 168 from both the 12z GFS and Euro ensembles.
12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA168.gif ( 60.06K )
Number of downloads: 1
12zecmwfens850mbTSLPNA168.gif ( 62.47K )
Number of downloads: 1 |
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Apr 2 2012, 07:54 AM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,113 Joined: 23-November 10 From: Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 24,422 |
QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 1 2012, 07:49 PM) Hour 168 from both the 12z GFS and Euro ensembles.
12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA168.gif ( 60.06K )
Number of downloads: 1
12zecmwfens850mbTSLPNA168.gif ( 62.47K )
Number of downloads: 1Looks like they are both pretty consistent now, with the GFS looking warmer. It will be great to have some decent weather on Easter, I can remember some pretty cold ones... |
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Apr 4 2012, 05:11 AM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
00z GFS ensembles @ hour 96:
00zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA096.gif ( 69.85K )
Number of downloads: 000z ECMWF ensembles @ hour 96:
00zecmwfens850mbTSLPNA096.gif ( 70.91K )
Number of downloads: 0 |
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Apr 4 2012, 07:24 AM
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#18
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,839 Joined: 30-January 09 From: Grimsby, ontario, can Member No.: 17,251 |
Hey everyone, for those looking for SCRIBE info from the Regional and Global models, check out this link, and drag the target over your area. it'll find SCRIBE info to your closest forecast area.
Regional and Global SCRIBE data -------------------- follow me on twitter @coreywxelder
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Apr 4 2012, 12:24 PM
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#19
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Rank: Whirlwind Group: Founding Member Posts: 5 Joined: 27-July 06 From: Beamsville, Ontario Member No.: 2,494 |
Awesome, thanks Corey!
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Apr 5 2012, 07:15 AM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,839 Joined: 30-January 09 From: Grimsby, ontario, can Member No.: 17,251 |
QUOTE(weathergirl @ Apr 4 2012, 01:24 PM) Awesome, thanks Corey! No Problem Ann-Marie
-------------------- follow me on twitter @coreywxelder
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