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> Easter weekend
TheFrenchman
post Mar 28 2012, 02:47 PM
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Hey!

I know it's early but what can we expect for the Easter long weekend next week? It seems that the warmer weather will have a hard time getting to us in the east. It's snowing here today... hope it will not for Easter!!

I want sunny and warm weather smile.gif) (*finger crossed!)

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bigmt
post Mar 28 2012, 03:02 PM
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QUOTE(TheFrenchman @ Mar 28 2012, 03:47 PM) *
Hey!

I know it's early but what can we expect for the Easter long weekend next week? It seems that the warmer weather will have a hard time getting to us in the east. It's snowing here today... hope it will not for Easter!!

I want sunny and warm weather smile.gif) (*finger crossed!)


Here's the 00z and 12z runs of the GFS.

Attached File  gfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 54.2K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 56.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


Quite a difference between the two but at this range it's par-for-the-course. The 00z run brings that low through Eastern Canada by Monday. I'll keep this updated.
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bigmt
post Mar 28 2012, 03:04 PM
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Also the 12z GFS ensembles @ hour 264:

Attached File  12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS264.gif ( 40.41K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Mar 29 2012, 09:39 AM
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00z ECMWF @ hour 240:

Attached File  f240.gif ( 103.09K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  00zeuro850mbTSLPNA240.gif ( 75.95K ) Number of downloads: 0
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JJ Snowlover
post Mar 29 2012, 09:49 AM
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It looks like temps are going to be seasonal or only slightly above seasonal for the next 14 days, if not the rest of April. Last week TWN was forecasting the week of April 2 - 7 was going to be quite warm and near 15c a couple days, but now looks like the highest we get is maybe 10 or 11c for one day.

I knew it was going to be quite sometime before we see those warm heatwave temps again, like late May or June. It was actually kinda of a cruel tease... huh.gif
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TheFrenchman
post Mar 29 2012, 01:17 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 29 2012, 10:39 AM) *
00z ECMWF @ hour 240:

Attached File  f240.gif ( 103.09K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  00zeuro850mbTSLPNA240.gif ( 75.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


omg... it's looking bad! Cloudy-rainy-cool... The GFS long range looks quite stormy too... It looks like a storm sit and spin over eastern Canada for days and days.

Where is the nice weather ?! I'm not talking 25C... lol but at least 10C! too much to ask for the next 2 weeks at least sad.gif

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stuffradio
post Mar 29 2012, 01:24 PM
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QUOTE(TheFrenchman @ Mar 29 2012, 11:17 AM) *
omg... it's looking bad! Cloudy-rainy-cool... The GFS long range looks quite stormy too... It looks like a storm sit and spin over eastern Canada for days and days.

Where is the nice weather ?! I'm not talking 25C... lol but at least 10C! too much to ask for the next 2 weeks at least sad.gif

Most of the East has been nice from what I've been hearing. The West needs a reprieve. I wish for everyone to get nice weather though...
We're at 160.1 mm accumulation so far. The average for March is 157 mm.
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bigmt
post Mar 29 2012, 05:01 PM
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12z ECMWF @ hour 240:

Attached File  12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 58.25K ) Number of downloads: 1


12z ECMWF ensembles @ hour 240:

Attached File  12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 45.48K ) Number of downloads: 0


12z GFS @ hour 240:

Attached File  12zgfs850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 48.73K ) Number of downloads: 0


12z GFS ensembles @ hour 240:

Attached File  12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 38.23K ) Number of downloads: 0


The operational GFS is at odds with multiple members of it's own ensembles, here's an example:

Attached File  12zensp002p06240.gif ( 42.87K ) Number of downloads: 0


Overall there's more consensus for a high anchored over the southeast USA and subsequently a reasonably mild pattern for eastern Canada & a continuation of the cooler/wetter setup for the west coast, at least for the moment. Long way to go yet.
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bigmt
post Mar 31 2012, 09:57 AM
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00z GFS @ hour 192:

Attached File  00zgfs850mbTSLPNA192.gif ( 65.68K ) Number of downloads: 0


00z ECMWF @ hour 192:

Attached File  00zeuro850mbTSLPNA192.gif ( 73.57K ) Number of downloads: 0
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TheFrenchman
post Mar 31 2012, 10:15 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 31 2012, 10:57 AM) *
00z GFS @ hour 192:

Attached File  00zgfs850mbTSLPNA192.gif ( 65.68K ) Number of downloads: 0


00z ECMWF @ hour 192:

Attached File  00zeuro850mbTSLPNA192.gif ( 73.57K ) Number of downloads: 0



...I'll take the Euro!! Warmer. But I think the GFS will "win"...
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ottawasnowstorm
post Mar 31 2012, 09:52 PM
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I've seen enough consistency that I believe the easter weekend will be warm. I expect at least one day to hit in the 20's from southern ontario straight through eastern onatrio and parts of southern Quebec.
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JJ Snowlover
post Apr 1 2012, 09:04 AM
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QUOTE(ottawasnowstorm @ Mar 31 2012, 09:52 PM) *
I've seen enough consistency that I believe the easter weekend will be warm. I expect at least one day to hit in the 20's from southern ontario straight through eastern onatrio and parts of southern Quebec.

TWN says 16c on Sunday, and 13c for Saturday. Not too bad, I hope it sticks...
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ottawasnowstorm
post Apr 1 2012, 09:13 AM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Apr 1 2012, 10:04 AM) *
TWN says 16c on Sunday, and 13c for Saturday. Not too bad, I hope it sticks...

Yup! If it doesn't make the 20's, it should at least reach the mid to upper teens. I think it will overall be mild to warm. And the best part is that I'm off for all the 4 days. biggrin.gif
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stuffradio
post Apr 1 2012, 02:21 PM
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EC says 14C and 13C for me on Friday and Saturday.
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bigmt
post Apr 1 2012, 07:49 PM
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Hour 168 from both the 12z GFS and Euro ensembles.

Attached File  12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA168.gif ( 60.06K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  12zecmwfens850mbTSLPNA168.gif ( 62.47K ) Number of downloads: 1
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JJ Snowlover
post Apr 2 2012, 07:54 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 1 2012, 07:49 PM) *
Hour 168 from both the 12z GFS and Euro ensembles.

Attached File  12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA168.gif ( 60.06K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  12zecmwfens850mbTSLPNA168.gif ( 62.47K ) Number of downloads: 1

Looks like they are both pretty consistent now, with the GFS looking warmer. It will be great to have some decent weather on Easter, I can remember some pretty cold ones...

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bigmt
post Apr 4 2012, 05:11 AM
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00z GFS ensembles @ hour 96:

Attached File  00zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA096.gif ( 69.85K ) Number of downloads: 0


00z ECMWF ensembles @ hour 96:

Attached File  00zecmwfens850mbTSLPNA096.gif ( 70.91K ) Number of downloads: 0
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elder05
post Apr 4 2012, 07:24 AM
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Hey everyone, for those looking for SCRIBE info from the Regional and Global models, check out this link, and drag the target over your area. it'll find SCRIBE info to your closest forecast area.

Regional and Global SCRIBE data


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weathergirl
post Apr 4 2012, 12:24 PM
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Awesome, thanks Corey! smile.gif
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elder05
post Apr 5 2012, 07:15 AM
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QUOTE(weathergirl @ Apr 4 2012, 01:24 PM) *
Awesome, thanks Corey! smile.gif


No Problem Ann-Marie smile.gif


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