Apr 2-4 MidAtl/NE Storm, Possibility:Medium Range [4-7 Days Out Forecast] Options

[NYCSuburbs]

Around Monday/Tuesday of next week, while a major storm will organize in the north central US, a brief yet strong surge of warmth will move into the region, which will be followed by a cold front around Tuesday, possibly into Wednesday. This doesn't look like a huge rain producer, but at least some rain should fall in the region, with perhaps thunderstorms getting involved further south and snow possible in Maine.

12z GFS:



I'm not sure if it's worth opening a warm thread for just one day (Monday), but I guess the moderators can open one if they think it's necessary. The warm surge it definitely will not be long lasting, in terms of intensity it will be stronger than that of last week, but returning towards typical spring warm ups as the warmest air mass will be over the Mid Atlantic, not Maine. The back door cold front will limit how far the warmth advances, but the southern/central Mid Atlantic up to central PA has a good chance of reaching 80s IMO, with the northern half of NJ/NYC in question due to the location of the BDCF, which based on typical trends I'd expect to drop south of NYC, and New England will remain mostly chilly; the storm could perhaps produce snow for Maine depending on where it tracks and how much cold air there is.

18z DGEX:

[NYCSuburbs]

6z GFS suddenly yet not so unexpectedly backed down from the warmth in the northern Mid Atlantic/NE and sides with a strong back door cold front keeping highs noticeably colder than average. Perhaps it could be overdoing it a bit, especially as it suppresses the entire storm which IMO could be overdoing it as well, but I would think that stronger back door cold front influence with a weaker mid week storm is much more likely than the huge warm surge the 18z GFS had.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Mar 29 2012, 06:13 AM

[telejunkie]

saw that yesterday burbs and was wondering if it would stick around. Saw 0z GFS lost it, but definitely need to keep on eye on the mid-week period for Maine & maybe NNE as several models have hinted at coastal storm developing somewhere in the LI to Gulf of Maine area. Euro keeps the snow to Northern ME while yesterday 12z GFS seem to snow to most of NNE. 0z GFS kept the two pieces of energy from the Plains storm separate and never develops the bomb of a storm over the central states...so no transfer of energy to the coast ever occurs.

[NorEaster07]

Upton Regarding the Blocking, Vortex, and storm nee to be watching for this time frame.


"LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF BLOCKING ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS PERIOD WITH EVEN SOME RIDGING POKING NORTHWARD
INTO GREENLAND...ALBEIT WEAK. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WERE
HINTING TOWARD A POLAR VORTEX DESCENDING SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MID WEEK WITH THE NAO BECOMING NEGATIVE. HOWEVER...THE
00Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF...THUS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND FOR SUN AND MON
BEFORE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW TUE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT EARLY WED. THE 00Z RUNS ARE ALSO POINTING TOWARD A SHORT WAVE
TROF IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NORTH...SENDING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
KEPT SUN NIGHT DRY. NEED TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...BUT A
DECENT FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA SUN
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED"

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Mar 29 2012, 10:54 AM

[telejunkie]

Only looked at 12z Euro, but it still has storm forming off east end of LI on Wed & exploding as it moves into the Gulf of Maine...still showing possibility for a pretty significant accums for mountains of ME and eventually all but southern ME as cold air wraps in. Downeast ME & St. Croix basin is shown getting a thumping...

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Mar 29 2012, 02:10 PM

[sheabird32]

Only looked at 12z Euro, but it still has storm forming off east end of LI on Wed & exploding as it moves into the Gulf of Maine...still showing possibility for a pretty significant accums for mountains of ME and eventually all but southern ME as cold air wraps in. Downeast ME & St. Croix basin is shown getting a thumping...

I've been holding hope that this storm would take a northern turn- as you know I'm leaving tmrw for the Loaf and staying until Tues....what is the time frame it would impact Maine? It would be amazing to get some serious snow our last day or two...wishful thinking but never know. I will have to take a look at the GFS and NAM.

[sheabird32]

I've been holding hope that this storm would take a northern turn- as you know I'm leaving tmrw for the Loaf and staying until Tues....what is the time frame it would impact Maine? It would be amazing to get some serious snow our last day or two...wishful thinking but never know. I will have to take a look at the GFS and NAM.

not sure what to think of this. pretty nice qpf's

[telejunkie]

I've been holding hope that this storm would take a northern turn- as you know I'm leaving tmrw for the Loaf and staying until Tues....what is the time frame it would impact Maine? It would be amazing to get some serious snow our last day or two...wishful thinking but never know. I will have to take a look at the GFS and NAM.

sorry, realize i didn't post dates or anything...that image was for Wed Apr 4th.

[telejunkie]

not sure what to think of this. pretty nice qpf's

so yeah, got the Sat. event, the late Sun-Mon event and the possibility of a Wed-Thur event. I would say the late Sun-Mon event could be light accums for NNE similar to the event that just occurred Wed night.
The Wed event has the potential to be a big storm for parts of Maine if all the pieces can phase. 12z GFS says no:

[sheabird32]

Got it, all these waves of energy can be confusing. I will be gone wed. but hopefully the short wave moving in sun-mon can produce some measurable snows. If the Wednesday storm does phase I would be tempted to stay an extra day!

[NYCSuburbs]

The warmth potential is pretty much dead for this time frame with the back door cold front pattern still in place. Perhaps that would help snow chances in interior New England though should there still be anything resembling an organized storm.

[NorEaster07]

Latest GFS. Looks like 3 events next 7 days. All featuring something dropping down from Canada or Upper Mid West.

[gulfofslides]

Latest GFS. Looks like 3 events next 7 days. All featuring something dropping down from Canada or Upper Mid West.

A lot of snow showers for NNE, extends the ski season for those areas still open

[NYCSuburbs]

There's no thread for it and I'm not going to create one yet due to the time range, the differences with the models, and that this GFS run will come nothing close to verifying, but the 0z GFS got locked in its own fantasy land... 9 hours passed and no one even mentioned this run

[gulfofslides]

There's no thread for it and I'm not going to create one yet due to the time range, the differences with the models, and that this GFS run will come nothing close to verifying, but the 0z GFS got locked in its own fantasy land... 9 hours passed and no one even mentioned this run

Yes I noticed that low for the 10th but for that to happen blocking would need to be in place so I disregarded it as fantasy

[NYCSuburbs]

Yes I noticed that low for the 10th but for that to happen blocking would need to be in place so I disregarded it as fantasy

That's what I did as soon as I saw the P-type

[NorEaster07]

There's no thread for it and I'm not going to create one yet due to the time range, the differences with the models, and that this GFS run will come nothing close to verifying, but the 0z GFS got locked in its own fantasy land... 9 hours passed and no one even mentioned this run

Shhh, maybe the trick is not to mention anything anymore. LOL

Maybe we shouldnt start a thread and just do an OBS thread if it happens.

[loafer1989]

It's baaaaaaaaack, urg not again:

Sunday Night: Rain showers before 4am, then rain likely, possibly mixed with snow showers. Patchy fog between 4am and 5am. Low around 34. North wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Monday: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. North wind between 7 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?l...p;FcstType=text

[NorEaster07]

OBS Thread Opened:

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=29402

[Fire/Rescue]

A lot of snow showers for NNE, extends the ski season for those areas still open

seeming like back to back to back Clipper type systems