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#1
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 18,229 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 ![]() |
There is a "See Text" for today across northern IL, a slight risk area has just been added to parts of IN/OH/KY for tomorrow, and a "See Text" for Monday for parts of WI/IL/MI/IN/OH.
Day 2 QUOTE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY... CORRECTED TO REMOVE THUNDER LINE IN FLORIDA ...OH VALLEY... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NERN STATES SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM WRN KY NEWD ACROSS IND INTO WRN OH. SOME CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CNTRL IND SEWD ACROSS SRN OH. MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SWD ACROSS KY AND WV DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 75 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS SUNDAY WITH THE SERN EDGE OF THE JET AFFECTING THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY MID-AFTERNOON SHOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN IND...SW OH AND MOST OF KY WITH MUCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL IF CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. IF SUPERCELLS CAN ORGANIZE...THEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE FOR SUNDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND FRONTAL FORCING COULD ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE POSING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. This post has been edited by snowlover2: Apr 1 2012, 02:21 AM -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:
# of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Watches:2 # of Tornado Warnings:1 |
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#2
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 18,229 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 ![]() |
IND AFD
QUOTE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 345 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012 .UPDATE... THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW. .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE AN MCS FORM TONIGHT IN IOWA THAT COULD MAKE IT/S WAY ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL REACH INDIANA BEFORE 12Z...BUT THOUGHT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP AFTER 9Z IN THE NORTHWEST. FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT A CONSENSUS APPROACH WORKED WELL WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WITH WARM ADVECTION AND MORE CLOUDS THERE AND LESS IN THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SHORT TERM SO WILL USE A CONSENSUS GENERALLY...BUT THOUGHT EARLY ON THE NAM WAS A LITTLE OVERZEALOUS IN POPS AND PRECIP ARRIVAL WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM SO THERE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF/SREFS. COULD HAVE AN MCS ARRIVING IN THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT SUNDAY. VERY WEAK UPPER FORCING WITH A LITTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SO THAT MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 OR SO WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SHEAR /BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED/ WILL BE AVAILABLE AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THUS THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR THAT TIME. ALSO HAVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8C SO EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO BE LARGE HAIL. -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:
# of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Watches:2 # of Tornado Warnings:1 |
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#3
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 18,229 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 ![]() |
ILN AFD
QUOTE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 521 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012 .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND INFLUENCE THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY WITH BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AND THEREFORE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING WIND AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE FA FOR MONDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE GFS BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FA DRY. WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE CATEGORY. -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:
# of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Watches:2 # of Tornado Warnings:1 |
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#4
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,262 Joined: 19-June 09 From: Xenia/Miamisburg Ohio Member No.: 18,456 ![]() |
Looks like a long week....
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#5
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 18,229 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 ![]() |
SPC has just added a slight risk area for eastern IA and northern IL for hail in the newest day 1 outlook.
QUOTE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN IA...NRN/CNTRL IL... ...ERN IA...NRN/CNTRL IL... AFTERNOON MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY NARROW 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ OVER SRN/ERN IA THIS EVENING...THE NRN EXTENT ALREADY CONFIRMED BY THE DMX VAD WIND PROFILE. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NE OF SURFACE WARM FRONT ARCING ACROSS SERN IA INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY SHOULD FOSTER SATURATION NEAR 850 MB AND REMOVAL OF MUCIN EVIDENT IN 00Z DVN RAOB. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 DEG C/KM WOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE REACHING 1000-2000 J/KG AND LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH TONIGHT. AMIDST A LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH...POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. This post has been edited by snowlover2: Mar 31 2012, 08:13 PM -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:
# of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Watches:2 # of Tornado Warnings:1 |
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#6
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 21,448 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 ![]() |
I'm not falling for it, but a bit of a surprise to see a slight risk go up across IA/IL for hail. I'm sure I'll sleep right though it
Beat by snowlover2 This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Mar 31 2012, 08:13 PM |
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#7
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 21,448 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 ![]() |
ILX did the infamous mid evening HWO update
QUOTE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 820 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>046-048-053>057-011100- CHAMPAIGN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON- MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-SCHUYLER-STARK- TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD- 820 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS IN IOWA AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A FEW OF THE STORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ROUGHLY FROM 200 AM UNTIL 800 AM. $$ __________________________________________________ _________________________________ ILZ047-049>052-061>063-066>068-071>073-011100- CASS-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER- LAWRENCE-MORGAN-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY- 820 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ SMITH |
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#8
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 21,448 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 ![]() |
![]() QUOTE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0402
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0852 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA...NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 010152Z - 010245Z AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HRS FROM CNTRL IA EWD INTO NWRN IL...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING SPECIFIC TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF SVR POTENTIAL EXISTS...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW...PERHAPS AS SOON AS THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. SFC ANALYSIS FROM 01Z PLACES A WARM FRONT FROM 30 SSE OTM TO 10 NNW SUX. TO THE NE OF THE WARM FRONT...RADAR ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 40 W OF CEDAR RAPIDS...WITH A NARROW WAA REGIME AIDED BY A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ /PER DMX VWP/. WITH TIME...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION/EWD EXPANSION OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /SAMPLED AT 7-8 C/KM PER DVN 00Z SOUNDING/ AND MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE W-NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS /SOME SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. A MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE HIGH-RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE /INCLUDING 23Z WRF-HRRR AND 12Z WRF-NMM/ APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW/FAR EAST WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT GENERAL TREND IS FOR A GRADUAL EWD EXPANSION OF TSTMS INTO ERN IA AND EVENTUALLY NRN IL AS LOW-LEVEL WAA BECOMES FOCUSED FARTHER E. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL THREAT REMAINS...BUT THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. ..ROGERS.. 04/01/2012 ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...ARX...DMX... |
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,564 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 ![]() |
![]() QUOTE URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 925 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL IOWA NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM UNTIL 400 AM CDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MARSEILLES ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 123... DISCUSSION...AREA OF TSTMS RELATED TO LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL SPREAD EWD/ESEWD FROM ERN IA INTO NW IL OVERNIGHT. A FEED OF MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND POTENTIALLY AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL OR TWO...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29030. ...THOMPSON -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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#10
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 18,229 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 ![]() |
New day 1 shifted the slight risk area westward from the previous day 2. Large hail appears to be the main threat.
QUOTE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT SUN APR 01 2012 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND REACH THE ROCKIES BY EARLY MON. A STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EMANATE NWD FROM AN ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARK PLATEAU. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH A W/E-ORIENTED COLD FRONT SINKING SWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MIDWEST THIS EVENING. ...OH VALLEY... A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z THIS MORNING IN PORTIONS OF IND/ERN IL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTS NE OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MS TO TN VALLEYS. GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER TO SOME EXTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK E/SEWD TOWARDS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. WHEN/WHERE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMES SURFACE-BASED AS DIURNAL HEATING ENSUES IS UNCERTAIN. THE NAM AND ETA-KF CONTROL MEMBER OF THE SREF APPEAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CNTRL OH VALLEY DEPICTING MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 12-13 G/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON /INDICATIVE OF THE AIR MASS OVER TEXARKANA ON SAT EVENING/. WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE...AT LEAST ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED TSTMS SHOULD FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON...EITHER IN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS ALONG THE S/WRN FLANK OF THE REMNANT OVERNIGHT MCS OR ALONG THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD INTO THE MIDWEST. DESPITE WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE KINEMATIC PROFILE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE DEGREE OF STRENGTHENING OVERLAPPING LARGER INSTABILITY...WITH THE NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. THIS BREEDS FURTHER UNCERTAINTY...BUT HODOGRAPHS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENTLY ELONGATED FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PRODUCING MAINLY LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WIND. WILL DEFER ON INTRODUCING HIGHER PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW BOTH ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL EVOLVE TODAY. -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:
# of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Watches:2 # of Tornado Warnings:1 |
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#11
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 7,173 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Norman, OK Member No.: 24,567 ![]() |
Got in on a few rumbles of thunder at 5:30 this morning.
-------------------- Annual Snowfall
2014-2015: 46" 2013-2014: 69.5" 2012-2013: 37'' Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24" Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18" |
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,564 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 ![]() |
Watching the cloud cover in NE IL where a warm front and stalled boundary is meeting.
![]() -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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#13
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 21,448 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 ![]() |
Wasn't mentioned, and new update will be out shortly so I'll just post the one image. They did include a 30% hail threat overlapping hatched areas in the 1630Z update for those of you in SW OH, SE IN and N KY
![]() This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Apr 1 2012, 02:29 PM |
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#14
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 7,173 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Norman, OK Member No.: 24,567 ![]() |
Well, luckily I'm not in line for any storms this afternoon, because MKX, LOT, and DVN are all offline right now...
![]() -------------------- Annual Snowfall
2014-2015: 46" 2013-2014: 69.5" 2012-2013: 37'' Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24" Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18" |
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#15
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 21,448 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 ![]() |
Small 5% tornado risk added
![]() Hail ![]() Wind had 30% added ![]() QUOTE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT SUN APR 01 2012 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS... THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO NARROW THE HIGHER END PROBABILITIES TO A CORRIDOR FROM SE IND SEWD ACROSS NRN KY. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT EWD THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL EXIST SEWD ACROSS THE CINCINNATI AREA WHERE THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...THE OUTLOOK LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. ..BROYLES.. 04/01/2012 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT SUN APR 01 2012/ ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION DURING THE D1 PERIOD AS WRN U.S. TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE ROCKIES...AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. E OF THE RIDGE...AN 80-90 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OVER SRN ONTARIO WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...SUPPORTING INTENSIFICATION OF A TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO NWRN ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MERGE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD/NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...ENHANCING BAROCLINITY OVER THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD/SEWD THROUGH NRN PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT A DRYLINE OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL PARTS OF NEB/KS INTO SWRN TX. ...OH VALLEY INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT... MASS RESPONSE TO ABOVE-MENTIONED JET STREAK --MANIFEST AS A WLY 30 KT LLJ-- WILL ENHANCE THE EWD FLUX OF A WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CURRENTLY OBSERVED NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS AND OH RIVERS EWD ACROSS REGION TODAY. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE ERN EXTENSION OF AN EML /CHARACTERIZED BY MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-7.5 C PER KM/...YIELDING AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500 J/KG ACROSS EWD-DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR. REGENERATIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF IND/OH OWING TO PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GLANCING INFLUENCE OF IMPULSE DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. STORMS MAY SUBSEQUENTLY BUILD WWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE...BUT STRONGER CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. |
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,564 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 ![]() |
Small 5% tornado risk added It was there earlier. They shaved it a good deal. -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,564 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 ![]() |
![]() QUOTE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT SUN APR 01 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IL...CNTRL IND...WCNTRL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 012042Z - 012215Z LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEEPER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS ECNTRL IL INVOF IROQUOIS/VERMILION COUNTIES. THIS IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF STRONG THERMAL HEATING AT LOW LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD GRADUAL SAG SWD INTO THIS ZONE OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...THOUGH DEEP WLY FLOW MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 22-23Z TIME FRAME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS THAT WOULD MOVE SEWD AT ROUGHLY 25-30KT. LATEST THINKING IS AN E-W CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHICH WOULD POSE AT LEAST A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..DARROW.. 04/01/2012 -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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#18
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 12,514 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 ![]() |
Hmm... maybe some scattered thunderstorms around here.
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#19
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,544 Joined: 24-January 09 From: Beavercreek/Columbus, OH Member No.: 17,080 ![]() |
Well, looks like things never really got going today.
-------------------- Alec Butner
The Ohio State University Atmospheric Science ('16) |
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,564 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 ![]() |
Well, looks like things never really got going today. In a word...cap. -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 25th April 2018 - 09:36 AM |