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> April 10-13 Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 3 Slight Risk - Forecasts & OBS
MDH
post Apr 4 2012, 01:38 PM
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Beginning Friday April 13, a trough actually appears to make it to the central plains. GFS has been vague about the exact trajectory of the front but it looks to me like this will be a major event if it verifies. It'll be interesting, speculating on how this evolves and changes over the next week.
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The Snowman
post Apr 4 2012, 02:59 PM
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Please correct me if I'm wrong, but the LRC appears to be in line for a mid April severe weather outbreak, according to an article concerning the LRC I read a while ago...


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The Snowman
post Apr 4 2012, 03:57 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Apr 4 2012, 02:59 PM) *
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but the LRC appears to be in line for a mid April severe weather outbreak, according to an article concerning the LRC I read a while ago...

Here it is:

QUOTE
We went over a similar situation using the LRC in last year's outbreaks and you can go back into last year's blogs to find those comparison. As we project forward another 45 and 90 days in to the future we can pick out when this part of the pattern will return and likely set us back up into a severe weather outbreak set-up. So, look for around April 15th to 16th give or take a couple of days. And, look for one last time this part of the pattern comes through with enough energy before summer settles in around Memorial Day weekend into early June.This next part of the cycling pattern is right on schedule.


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2013-2014 Winter
Total Snowfall: 67.5''
Winter Weather Advisories: 10
Winter Storm Watches: 2 (1 Lake Effect)
Winter Storm Warnings: 7 (2 Lake Effect)


Annual Snowfall
2012-2013: 37''

You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
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andyhb
post Apr 4 2012, 05:57 PM
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Been watching this pattern show up on the GFS/GFS ensembles (and now the Euro is beginning to trend this way too) and some of these verbatims are not pretty for various sections of the country around this time period, obviously too far out to get into real specifics though.

18z GFS absolutely lights up this timeframe, with multiple significant systems.

This post has been edited by andyhb: Apr 4 2012, 09:33 PM
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rifej7386
post Apr 5 2012, 09:12 AM
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It would not suprise me to see an EF3 or greater Tornado in Ohio before this Spring is over. Not counting the early March outbreak.
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wxman1952
post Apr 5 2012, 09:30 PM
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Acuweather has me (Saginaw, MI) some freezing rain on thw 17th and raain/snow mixed for the 19th. WT hey?I hope the warm winter won't become a cold summer.

http://saginawcountyweather.webs.com/


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WeatherMonger
post Apr 7 2012, 06:35 AM
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SPC delineated a day 6 outlook area, sounds like day 7 will be active as well



QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SAT APR 07 2012

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK PERIOD...SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH LINGERING OVER
THE ERN STATES THROUGH D5/WED. MEANWHILE...THE ROCKIES RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL STATES...WHILE THE UPSTREAM ERN PACIFIC
TROUGH ADVANCES INLAND SUPPORTED BY A PROGRESSIVE BASAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING SRN CA BY THE START OF D5/WED. THIS LATTER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
D5 BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS /30 PERCENT OR GREATER/ ARE NOT
EXPECTED ON D4/TUE OR D5/WED...THOUGH SOME SEVERE STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON D4 ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED
ON D3/MON. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON D5 OVER THE SRN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WITH NWD
EXTENT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THE D4/D5 BASAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE GFS
MAINTAINING A MORE NRN BIAS...EACH MODEL SHOWS STRONGER SWLY FLOW
ACROSS OK/KS DURING D6/THU ATOP STRONGER SLY LLJ. THESE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
GIVEN MOISTURE RETURN SUPPORTS A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA
ON D6/THU ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO CENTRAL AND ERN KS.

BEYOND D6...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY
COULD DEVELOP ON D8/SAT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO KS AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ADVANCES INLAND INTO THE PLAINS...BUT TIMING
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDES INTRODUCING ANOTHER REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AREA.

..PETERS.. 04/07/2012


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jdrenken
post Apr 7 2012, 11:57 AM
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QUOTE
Dr. Greg Forbes
22 hours ago

THUR APR 12
GFS and ECMWF models differ on this, so this forecast (based upon GFS) could change in upcoming days. Isolated severe thunderstorms in east SD, east NE, east half KS, central OK, central TX.


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jdrenken
post Apr 7 2012, 12:00 PM
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Tornado Titan's blog.


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jdrenken
post Apr 7 2012, 01:26 PM
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QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES,
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL RELOAD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSE BY, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE. IN
FACT, THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL ALL BE NEARLY IDEAL FOR OUTBREAKS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE, GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL A
WEEK AWAY, IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE IN THE PLAINS THE
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE CONCENTRATED.


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jdrenken
post Apr 7 2012, 02:46 PM
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QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
218 PM EDT SAT APR 07 2012

VALID 12Z TUE APR 10 2012 - 12Z SAT APR 14 2012

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
TEAMING UP WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. A SECOND AREA OF MOSTLY CONVECTIVE RAINS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE A THIRD BATCH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT SATURDAY. PER THE LATEST STORM
PREDICTION CENTER DISCUSSION... A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR/SOUTH OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS TEXAS...MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WARM
SECTOR PER THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS A PAIR STRONG/DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND TRACK
TOWARDS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...GULF MOISTURE IS
TAPPED...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.


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ChiWxWatcher
post Apr 7 2012, 03:27 PM
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LOT is talking about model differences in their AFD.

QUOTE
BEYOND TONIGHT THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN IS NOT UNTIL THU NIGHT AND
FRI. A SHORT WAVE SWINGS SE FROM ITS CURRENT SOUTHERN ALBERTA
POSITION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IT BRINGS WITH IT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUT LOW LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE
DRY SO LITTLE IF ANY THREAT OF RAIN. AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS E
INTO ONTARIO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND IT DROPS S ACROSS
THE
UPPER MIDWEST DURING TUE AND THE LOCAL AREA TUE NIGHT. DEEP NNW FLOW
FOLLOWING THIS SHORT WAVE USHERS IN THE MUCH COOLER AIR THAT IS
CURRENTLY BOTTLED UP OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL CONDITIONS TUE AND WED BEFORE
MODERATION GETS UNDER WAY THU AFTER THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE E
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE
PLAINS E TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA.

THIS RIDGING IS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE THAT EJECTS FROM THE MAIN
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NE TO OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MODEL DIFFERENCE DICTATE A RATHER GENERIC FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK AS MODELS DIFFER IN HANDLING HOW THE PACIFIC LOW COMES ASHORE
AND MOVES INLAND.


TRS


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jdrenken
post Apr 7 2012, 03:55 PM
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QUOTE(ChiWxWatcher @ Apr 7 2012, 03:27 PM) *
LOT is talking about model differences in their AFD.


Yep...it would be suicide for anyone to commit until we get that energy sampled. Patience...all about patience.
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jdrenken
post Apr 7 2012, 04:02 PM
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QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012


FURTHER NORTHWARD SFC LOW ROLL
OUT ACRS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERN IA ON FRI COULD PUT THE CWA IN
LINE FOR WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME INTERESTING HAPPENINGS
ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. POSSIBLY MCS INITIATION OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THAT WILL LAST INTO FRI NIGHT. THEN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL LOOK TO RELOAD WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS ON SAT AND AS IT TRIES TO LIFT OUT
NORTHEASTWARD...IGNITING ANOTHER ELEVATED MCS OR SIMILAR COMPLEX IN
OR NEAR THE AREA BY NEXT SAT NIGHT. WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MODERATE
CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME TO COVER AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AND
WET LOOKING PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED


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Superstorm93
post Apr 7 2012, 07:37 PM
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Some of the lessers are freaking out over this one, but the variance in the models is really hard to get past.


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jdrenken
post Apr 7 2012, 07:44 PM
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QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Apr 7 2012, 07:37 PM) *
Some of the lessers are freaking out over this one, but the variance in the models is really hard to get past.


It definitely has potential. Model variance is due to the obvious non-sampling and how each model wants to eject the s/w out of the sw...to which the SPC and WFO AFD's mention.


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snowrawrsnow
post Apr 7 2012, 08:00 PM
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On a scale of 1-10, how bad could this outbreak be?


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jdrenken
post Apr 7 2012, 08:11 PM
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QUOTE(snowrawrsnow @ Apr 7 2012, 08:00 PM) *
On a scale of 1-10, how bad could this outbreak be?


Waaayyyy to early to say either way for the same reasons that I have mentioned.


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ChiWxWatcher
post Apr 7 2012, 08:16 PM
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This far out, we don't even know if it will be an outbreak yet.


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Formerly msweather!
QUOTE
Well I don't quite trust the...

*Never Accurate Model (NAM)

or

*Even Crazier Model With Foolishness. (ECMWF)

(J/K)

Members I love:
1:Joe/Chicago Storm ----->The one with the most posts...he's great!
2:MissMarisia:She's a great mod!
3:Jesse/WeatherMatrix:Great Moderater and blogger.

If you don't mind voting for me....
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MichelleOH
post Apr 7 2012, 10:50 PM
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And when will it be sampled?
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