April 11-13 MidAtl/NE Storm, Possibility:Medium Range [4-7 Days Out Forecast] Options

[NorEaster07]

Those precip dots are addicting.

PA




NY

[Doctor McGee]

"Stickage". Gives Ol' Granny and me a hearty Easter chuckle.

[jdrenken]

Those precip dots are addicting.

PA


NY

Remember...the NAM has been showing a cold bias since it was upgraded this past winter.

[jdrenken]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
505 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START OUT UNSETTLED WITH
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE A GREAT DEAL OF STEADY OR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...THERE WILL HOWEVER BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MAIN SYSTEM IMPACTING THE FA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL MOVE FROM OVER
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY LATE THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE THURSDAY. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AND
THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE FA ON SATURDAY...THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60
ON FRIDAY...AND MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. LOWS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

[jdrenken]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY...WITH NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER BEING INFLUENCED BY LARGE
UPPER TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL BE STATIONED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DESCEND SOUTH INTO FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.

GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AT TIMES. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ALSO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS DUE
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM DAYTIME HEATING...ALBEIT LIMITED. AIRMASS
COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN THE VALLEYS...EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SOME
WET SNOWFLAKES AT TIMES AT NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

GFS AND ECMWF OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF
HAS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WITH THIS SCENARIO...NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS MAINLY
DRY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY. GFS HAS A
FLATTER RIDGE FURTHER EAST...WHICH ALLOWS MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH ONLY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND BEING A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN NEXT WEEKENDS FORECAST
REMAINS RATHER LOW DUE WIDE DISCREPANCY IN SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY
MODELS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MINS THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. TREND TOWARDS
MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WE COULD
SEE HIGHS AROUND 60.

[NorEaster07]

Its always a surprise from Upton even in Winter.

"FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ARE COLD ENOUGH IN THE FORECAST FOR INTERIOR AREAS TO HAVE SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THIS DEPENDS ON TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND WHETHER THERE IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AT NIGHT."

[NYCSuburbs]

I'm enjoying something actually known as warmth (and a little bit of rain) in my vacation, not that I remember seeing such a thing as "warmth" and "rain" in NJ

And by the way, the mountains even have a little bit of "snow" on them

This never looked like an impressive system IMO, and still doesn't, as there's some scattered showers developing, mixing with snow inland where it should be cold enough, although expecting this to be a true "cold" spell would have been an overstatement as the air mass isn't that cold, enough for a bit of snow inland and chilly, below average temperatures but no strong cold.

I wouldn't expect the models to weaken this cool air mass by much, if at all; there's no -NAO officially but that doesn't change the fact that there's still blocking in this time frame to the north of the cutoff low with decently negative H5 height anomalies over the region, which is probably the longest lasting and most impressive trough of the whole season (going a bit forward, I would not be surprised the slightest bit if the models are overdoing the mega torch in the long range, that's the way it has been with this new pattern).

The main source of rain should probably be some scattered showers in this time frame, which still isn't much of a relief; we had 2 moderate rain events at the end of March yet the drought continued to develop, so I would't think that scattered showers would offer much help. I haven't been keeping up with model trends much, but from what I can tell the models seem to have backed down a bit on the intensity and coverage area of the precipitation. Hopefully it rains at least more than modeled, we need the rain.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Apr 8 2012, 09:16 PM