March 2012-? MidAtl/NE Drought, Forecasts & OBS Options

[NYCSuburbs]

The next (and probably only) chance of widespread rain over the next 7 days is on Saturday night... some moderate rain, and possibly thunderstorms, is expected for the northern Mid Atlantic and SNE. This should probably bring at least 1/4 inch of rain, locally up to 1/2 inch perhaps, although it still does not look like a very wet storm that will significantly ease drought concerns, and the cold front around Tuesday has a dry look to it.

EDIT: Sunday evening could also have some thunderstorms for southern/central New England but with not as much precip.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Apr 13 2012, 08:12 AM

[fboy]

Still no relief in sight. The showers expected for Tues/Wed have been replaced with sun. Looks like we have to wait another week for a chance at rain. After the mild winter and dry spring so far, I'm actually just hoping for a "normal" month of weather. Its been a while since we had one of those.

[yankees]

Its been pretty active in terms of Brush Fires by me. Four more have occured since Friday. Two on Friday and Two yesturday inclduing a two acre one yesturday morning. This now brings the total to 9 since the end of Feburary and there looks to be no relief in site with tommorow being a very dangerous day do to the hot weather.

[WEATHERFAN100]

Still no relief in sight. The showers expected for Tues/Wed have been replaced with sun. Looks like we have to wait another week for a chance at rain. After the mild winter and dry spring so far, I'm actually just hoping for a "normal" month of weather. Its been a while since we had one of those.

Later this week towards the weekend we may actually see periods of showers for the region. Probably a quarter-inch worth of rain. Won't be the big drought buster, but every drop counts, I guess.

[NYCSuburbs]

Later this week towards the weekend we may actually see periods of showers for the region. Probably a quarter-inch worth of rain. Won't be the big drought buster, but every drop counts, I guess.

18z GFS finally woke up after its last couple of runs and had moderate rain... much more reasonable than that crazy nor'easter it had (which the DGEX, as always, exaggerated).

[New England Stor...]

It is gonna be a hot one Monday, this wont bode well with the brush fire risk.

[NYCSuburbs]

I heard from a neighbor today that some kids nearby were apparently attempting to start a fire in the area... it's a bad idea at any time, but especially with drought and wind conditions, it's the worst possible time to do such a stupid act... it's a good thing that Upton is issuing the fire alerts, such as the fire weather watch for tomorrow.

[wxdude1964]

Skies are finally not full of smoke and haze, last report I saw last night had the three largest fires burning 11,500 (70% contained), 12,500 (30% contained), and 5,000 (45% contained) acres. Wind blowing from N past few hours has helped clear out the air here, hopefully will help the fires burn back on themselves too. Talked to a couple guys from the Sacramento Hotshots from New Mexico on Sunday night at a Burger King. Man do they work a tough job!

This post has been edited by wxdude1964: Apr 17 2012, 07:27 AM

[stilko4]

another brush fire on li, this time in manorville

[jdrenken]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
408 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 12Z SUN APR 22 2012 - 12Z WED APR 25 2012

...GULF/EAST COAST CYCLONE TO BRING WET/POTENTIALLY SNOWY
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST...

WEATHER-WISE...THE GULF COAST CYCLONE SHOULD BRING A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
EASTERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT/DROUGHT-RELIEVING
RAINS THROUGH THE EAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6-10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SNOWS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW
YORK WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST IF THE DEEPER ECMWF VERIFIES.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE MONDAY ONWARD AS
ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUITE WARM AND DRY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

ROTH

[wxdude1964]

Finally a little water from the sky!
Only 0.21 in gauge before I left for work, but still falling and radar looks like we in for several hours of steady rain. Hopefully this will help firefighters get a upper hand on fires and allow those from far away to return home for a rest. As of late last night the three largest fires were 90, 60, and 60 percent contained with 33000 acres burned.

[NorEaster07]

Looks like they were right.. We'll only be 2-3" behind schedule if we can get 3" from this next storm alone. And this projection is until July.




Edit: Link. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expe...son_drought.gif

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 18 2012, 07:51 AM

[psu1313]

Looks like they were right.. We'll only be 2-3" behind schedule if we can get 3" from this next storm alone. And this projection is until July.




Edit: Link. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expe...son_drought.gif

I'm a little confused by the drops that have been hitting my head off and on this morning. Not sure what they are since I haven't seen rain in a while. Anyways, just off and on drizzle so far but we should get some rain out of this.

[wxdude1964]

The rain helped to slow fires and firefighters have built containment lines around all three large fires here, all at 100% containment. One fire has almost 40 miles of containment lines built around it! The other large one has about 28 miles of line built around it.

[NYCSuburbs]

The rain last weekend definitely helped to ease the drought, especially in New England where the severe drought area shrinked, but the drought is still there and it's still widespread. Other than today's rains that are once again a bust for the NYC area following the pattern of previous spring storms, there's some light rain in the Mid Atlantic on Saturday night and scattered showers/T-storms in the Northeast late next week, but at least as of now there's no significant rain in sight.

[NorEaster07]

The rain last weekend definitely helped to ease the drought, especially in New England where the severe drought area shrinked, but the drought is still there and it's still widespread.

I like the glass half full look.

Last week 7.35% of NorthEast was in Severe drought (mostly CT, RI, MA) now its 4.07%. Thats a 44% decrease. So basically the NorEaster almost cut in half for those in severe areas.. Not bad for a 24hr storm. :-)

[NYCSuburbs]

I like the glass half full look.

Last week 7.35% of NorthEast was in Severe drought (mostly CT, RI, MA) now its 4.07%. Thats a 44% decrease. So basically the NorEaster almost cut in half for those in severe areas.. Not bad for a 24hr storm. :-)

My half full glass is that at least there's no widespread wildfire action anymore... it's not a wet pattern, but the upcoming pattern does fortunately have more frequent rain chances, and while the drought survived through the big rain event, unless the pattern turns way drier I don't think it should get much worse than it is now.

[NorEaster07]

I finally got around to starting my rain conservation system. I plan to getting a few more so the overage will drain into the next Pales.

Something I didnt know is that 1/2" of rain filled up a 30 Gallon Pale. Luckily all I have to do is take the flex out and put right into the underground pipe drain.



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 26 2012, 08:55 PM

[grandpaboy]

My half full glass is that at least there's no widespread wildfire action anymore... it's not a wet pattern, but the upcoming pattern does fortunately have more frequent rain chances, and while the drought survived through the big rain event, unless the pattern turns way drier I don't think it should get much worse than it is now.

Its funny how "we" (east coast) talk about drought and fires, live in southern California for a couple years and then you know what true drought means.............I get laughed at when I talk with my friends out there and say "oh yeah were in a drought here".......

This post has been edited by grandpaboy: Apr 27 2012, 10:23 PM

[yankees]

The rain last weekend definitely helped to ease the drought, especially in New England where the severe drought area shrinked, but the drought is still there and it's still widespread. Other than today's rains that are once again a bust for the NYC area following the pattern of previous spring storms, there's some light rain in the Mid Atlantic on Saturday night and scattered showers/T-storms in the Northeast late next week, but at least as of now there's no significant rain in sight.

Well I am still in that severe drought area however the rain at least has hampered any wildfire threat for a little while. But as you said the rain helped ease the level of drought for some people.