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> March 2012-? MidAtl/NE Drought, Forecasts & OBS
NYCSuburbs
post Apr 5 2012, 05:44 PM
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I wasn't sure where to post this thread, for now I put it in the Current Weather section although the mods can move this if they think it should be put somewhere else. There was also a thread opened in the Current Weather section about the drought in 2010, and this one so far seems bigger than that one.

Abnormally dry conditions began developing later on in the winter as frequency of storms began to decrease, and a dry pattern developed for January, February and especially March, which was the 4th driest on record for NYC and amongst the driest Marches on record for other parts of the region. While concerns about a full drought should wait until the late spring/early summer, as there were still near record wet conditions last year, the dry conditions need to be watched, and while the long range is still uncertain, it is a possibility that a dry pattern continues through the rest of the spring. It could end up becoming wetter, but should it stay dry, by the end of the spring drought may become a concern.

Latest Regional Drought Monitor data released today:

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athenacp
post Apr 5 2012, 05:46 PM
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I have a bad feeling about this, I keep thinking SE PA is going to end up like Texas this summer, its been too dry!
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NorEaster07
post Apr 5 2012, 07:47 PM
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Good thread to open. Better late than never. I was shoveling dirt today and I swear it looked like dust in spots.

My town put a ban on smoking in parks. Not sure if it extends to other cities (it should)

Fire danger prompts smoking ban in Norwalk parks, effective immediately.

http://www.thehour.com/story/523057/fire-d...iately/?ref=rss

NORWALK -- Dry weather conditions have prompted city officials to ban smoking in all city parks pending further notice.

"We've got a lot of areas that are inaccessible for fire apparatus. You've got 230 acres at Cranbury Park and you can't get to a whole bunch of it," said Michael A. Mocciae, the city's director of recreation and parks. "The rest of the parks will follow suit. With over 1,200 acres of open space and parks (in Norwalk), we have to protect our resources. So until further notice smoking will be banned from the parks."

Mocciae said the decision was made by Mayor Richard A. Moccia, the Fire Department, and the Department of Recreation and Parks. Violators of the ban, he said, will face a $99 fine.

The National Weather Services has the region under a red-flag warning indicating the possibility of wildfires.

Within the warning region, which includes southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York, there will be an elevated risk for the spread of wildfires, according to the Weather Service.

Mocciae said the conditions pose too great a risk to allow smoking in the city's parks.

"Sometimes people just forget and they'll toss a cigarette butt on the ground, and they walk away and forget the ramifications," Mocciae said.




--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Apr 5 2012, 08:01 PM
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From last week.
http://www.wtnh.com/dpp/news/hartford_cty/...ue-to-fire-risk


A fire fueled by strong winds at the Devil's Hopyard State Park in East Haddam brought out firefighters from more than a dozen towns.

The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag warning for Connecticut because of conditions.

Environmental officials say anyone who notices a forest fire should dial 911 and report it as quickly as possible






--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Apr 5 2012, 08:09 PM
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http://www.poconorecord.com/apps/pbcs.dll/...409906/-1/rss01

Fire danger warning until 8 p.m. in the Poconos

April 04, 2012
The National Weather Service is warning residents of the Poconos about an increased fire threat through 8 p.m. today.

Temperatures will range from the upper 50s to around 60.

The humidity will be as low as 20 percent this afternoon and northwest winds gusting to 25 mph will elevate the risk for the rapid spread of brush fires

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 5 2012, 08:09 PM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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albanyweather
post Apr 5 2012, 08:35 PM
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We usually get fire weather in the spring with the cool dry air and the dead leaves and brush that has not greened yet. Come May things will moisten up.


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
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NorEaster07
post Apr 5 2012, 08:37 PM
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QUOTE(albanyweather @ Apr 5 2012, 09:35 PM) *
We usually get fire weather in the spring with the cool dry air and the dead leaves and brush that has not greened yet. Come May things will moisten up.


Plus very little to no snowpack all winter. Usually that protects the ground and then the melt keeps it moist.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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albanyweather
post Apr 5 2012, 08:41 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 5 2012, 09:37 PM) *
Plus very little to no snowpack all winter. Usually that protects the ground and then the melt keeps it moist.

Maybe in the mountains. Snow is usually long gone here anyway so its not much different IMBY than any other year really.


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
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yankees
post Apr 5 2012, 10:05 PM
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Been very dry by us and this has led to 4 brush fires since the end of febuary in my county and one even in my town.


--------------------
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Severe Weather
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10-11 60.5 inches
11-12 21 inches
12-13 45.5 inches
13-14 57 inches
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telejunkie
post Apr 6 2012, 09:18 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 5 2012, 09:37 PM) *
Plus very little to no snowpack all winter. Usually that protects the ground and then the melt keeps it moist.


that really warm spell in March seems to actually helped us in certain regards since we are pretty much at green up here in the valley's since field grasses are up and will help dampen any conflagrations. Shadbush trees are in fully bloom & many trees already have leaves out. Still some concern for brush fires here, but i don't think we're near the level we were back in mid-march.

Looking down the road though, there are some concerns unless things change we could be concerns of long term drought if this dry pattern continues.


--------------------
Winter '13-'14 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/15 - 11"
1/2 - 11"
1/25 - 5"
2/5 - 9"
2/14 - 17"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
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telejunkie
post Apr 6 2012, 09:51 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 5 2012, 09:01 PM) *
From last week.
http://www.wtnh.com/dpp/news/hartford_cty/...ue-to-fire-risk
A fire fueled by strong winds at the Devil's Hopyard State Park in East Haddam brought out firefighters from more than a dozen towns.

The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag warning for Connecticut because of conditions.

Environmental officials say anyone who notices a forest fire should dial 911 and report it as quickly as possible


Thanks for sharing all that info noreaster!

We are on a burn ban here until at least May 1st...so anytime smoke is spotted, we get called. Luckily almost everybody is obeying the ban (knock on wood).


--------------------
Winter '13-'14 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/15 - 11"
1/2 - 11"
1/25 - 5"
2/5 - 9"
2/14 - 17"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
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The Day After To...
post Apr 6 2012, 10:31 AM
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I haven't seen any brush fires here yet.


--------------------
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The Day After To...
post Apr 6 2012, 10:44 AM
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QUOTE(yankees @ Apr 5 2012, 11:05 PM) *
Been very dry by us and this has led to 4 brush fires since the end of febuary in my county and one even in my town.

How big were the fires?


--------------------
My blog, Nor'easter Warn (N'EW)


N'EW BLOG
Proud to have over 7,000 viewers, with over 13,000 blog views!
Spring Forecast: March 15


"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


STORM ALERT
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Undertakerson
post Apr 6 2012, 11:54 AM
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Red Flag warnings out for C PA - last week a major catastrophe was averted by an alert motorist who notices a small mountain fire near MBY (homeowner discarding wood ash from his stove was the culprit). NO weather event makes me afraid near to the point of a mtn. fire.

Red Flag


--------------------
July, July - your nights so sultry, your daylight fry
Preying Mantis, Firefly - lazy bees they bumble by
Songbirds wake 'fore rooster talks - serpent rests upon the rock
Sol does reign for most the clock - beat thy breast 'til August knocks. - Me
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The Day After To...
post Apr 6 2012, 12:15 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Apr 6 2012, 12:54 PM) *
Red Flag warnings out for C PA - last week a major catastrophe was averted by an alert motorist who notices a small mountain fire near MBY (homeowner discarding wood ash from his stove was the culprit). NO weather event makes me afraid near to the point of a mtn. fire.

Red Flag

Why?


--------------------
My blog, Nor'easter Warn (N'EW)


N'EW BLOG
Proud to have over 7,000 viewers, with over 13,000 blog views!
Spring Forecast: March 15


"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


STORM ALERT
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NorEaster07
post Apr 6 2012, 04:57 PM
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http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/B...-146470685.html

Brush Fire Burning in Winsted, CT
Several fire departments are battling the blaze

Firefighters from several departments are battling a brush fire in Winsted.

The brush fire is burning along Coe Street.

A dispatcher from Goshen said firefighters from New Hartford, Colebrook and Norfolk were called in to help the Winsted Fire Department fight the fire.

The Department of Energy and Environmental Protection State Forestry division also responded to the fire.

More information will be posted as it becomes available.



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 6 2012, 04:58 PM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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New England Stor...
post Apr 6 2012, 10:30 PM
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It could be a long time before we get a chance for rain, and even by that period the 12-16th, it is a matter of will it all pan out, how widespread is the rainfall ect ect. And one run of the mill rainstorm would be just enough, but if go back to being dry.... all bets are off.

Also- May might bring a wet and windy pattern change for many so stay safe until then.


--------------------
Weather 2012-2013
Oct 28-29 Sandy Gust to 60MPH
Oct 29 Thunder storms
Dec 29 2.8 inch of snow
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phillyfan
post Apr 7 2012, 12:26 AM
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It's not looking good for any real good chance of rain at all through next week. It's really dry had under half an inch for March. Also there was a fire the other day here in Berks county where they had to do 10 air drops to help fight the fire, they were still having flare ups well into the following day.


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Severe T-Storm Warning: 4/22, 5/22, 5/22, 5/27, 7/2, 7/8, 7/13
Flood Watch: 4/29-5/1
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5/22 - Marble sized hail
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NorEaster07
post Apr 7 2012, 06:44 AM
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HPC qpf amount next 5 days. Less than 1/2" for most except up in Maine which some of that will be snow.



--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Apr 7 2012, 06:51 AM
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CPC Outlook: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expe...al_drought.html

"In the Northeast, relatively short-term drought and no discernible tilt of the odds toward wet or dry conditions for the next few months implies that some improvement will be the most likely outcome."


Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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