March 2012-? MidAtl/NE Drought, Forecasts & OBS Options

[LUCC]

Story of the winter and now spring, coastal and cold depicted, result is showers and warmth.

Heard Euro is WARM around day 10 and beyond, so much for a cool down.

[NorEaster07]

I mowed the lawn today and I created a mini dust storm.

At least its easier to pull weeds when its this dry.

[NorEaster07]

Latest GFS shows no substantial rain until the 17th, And even thats long range so who knows if that will disappear too.

Couple of drizzle and cloudy events before then.

BDR:(as of 4/6/12)
PRECIPITATION (IN)

MONTH TO DATE 0.27"
SINCE MAR 1: 1.31"
SINCE JAN 1: 5.87"
NORMAL BY NOW: 10.78"
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL: -4.91"
LAST YEAR THIS TIME: 13.14"

We need 5 inches of rain to get back to normal levels. Hartford pretty much the same. Entire State needs about 5 inches of rain.

[NYCSuburbs]

Story of the winter and now spring, coastal and cold depicted, result is showers and warmth.

Heard Euro is WARM around day 10 and beyond, so much for a cool down.

The cool down is still clearly there, I'm not sure what you're looking at... it's far from a cold spell, but there's still going to be a sustained trough from now through the late week, which is very remarkable for this winter considering that almost no trough lasted beyond 2 days at once. The coastal was a likely exaggeration, but the idea of scattered showers with chilly temperatures is still valid. And the warm spell shown for next weekend, while very possible, is still questionable given that the models under this new pattern tend to overestimate long range warmth, and there's still enough weak disturbances modeled that one of them could turn into a cutoff or a weak back door cold front.

Just as a note, I'm on vacation this week (outside of the US) so I don't know what's exactly happening right now in NJ, but from what I saw on Thursday and what I'm seeing on the models now, not much seems to have changed.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Apr 7 2012, 03:45 PM

[NorEaster07]

Smoke plume from big Waterbury, CT fire showing up on radar

Abandoned factory near I-84 on Baldwin St



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 7 2012, 07:12 PM

[loafer1989]

It's really not that bad up here in the higher Northeastern Hills of Connecticut as we had 1-2" of snow last saturday and about 0.25" of rain on sunday. My lawn is starting to green up and there are still some muddy areas in the shade. We had a ton of rainfall last year so most of the local lakes are still running high even with the dry spring.

[NorEaster07]

[NorEaster07]

Precip Departure from Normal Last 90 days (Left)
Amount of Precip last 30 days (Right)

Less than 2" most areas. Less than 1" fell for CT, MA, Southern VT & NH & ME.

[New England Stor...]

At least it looks like some will get rain in the next 10 days, looks like the drought forcast was on target. I hope we keep up the trend.

[natedizel]

Precip Departure from Normal Last 90 days (Left)
Amount of Precip last 30 days (Right)

Less than 2" most areas. Less than 1" fell for CT, MA, Southern VT & NH & ME.

It definitely dry out there. Went to rake some leaves yesterday and was kicking up dust

[Stratocumulus]

Wow! This is crazy. Almost every stream in the northeast is at a daily record low flow. Pretty incredible -- I had no idea it's been this dry!





This post has been edited by Stratocumulus: Apr 8 2012, 04:09 PM

[yankees]

How big were the fires?

The one in my town was 1-2 acres and one in a neighboring town was 5 acres.

This post has been edited by yankees: Apr 8 2012, 05:46 PM

[NorEaster07]

Lots of Red Flag and fire weather warnings out there.

RED FLAG WARNING for 446 Counties/Zones



Kern County Mountain ..., CA Hartford, CT Tolland, CT Windham, CT Northern Fairfield, CT
Northern New Haven, CT Northern Middlesex, CT Northern New London, CT Southern Fairfield, CT Southern New Haven, CT
Southern Middlesex, CT Southern New London, CT District Of Columbia, DC New Castle, DE Kent, DE
Inland Sussex, DE Delaware Beaches, DE North Walton, FL Central Walton, FL Holmes, FL
Washington, FL Jackson, FL Calhoun, FL Gadsden, FL Leon, FL
Inland Jefferson, FL Madison, FL Liberty, FL Inland Wakulla, FL Inland Taylor, FL
Lafayette, FL Iowa Great Lakes/roc ..., IA Winnebago, IL Boone, IL Mchenry, IL
Lake, IL Ogle, IL Lee, IL De Kalb, IL Kane, IL
Dupage, IL Cook, IL La Salle, IL Kendall, IL Grundy, IL
Will, IL Kankakee, IL Lake, IN Porter, IN Newton, IN
Jasper, IN Western Franklin, MA Eastern Franklin, MA Northern Worcester, MA Central Middlesex Co ..., MA
Western Essex, MA Eastern Essex, MA Western Hampshire, MA Western Hampden, MA Eastern Hampshire, MA
Eastern Hampden, MA Southern Worcester, MA Western Norfolk, MA Southeast Middlesex, MA Suffolk, MA
Eastern Norfolk, MA Northern Bristol, MA Western Plymouth, MA Eastern Plymouth, MA Southern Bristol, MA
Southern Plymouth, MA Barnstable, MA Dukes, MA Nantucket, MA Northwest Middlesex ..., MA
Washington, MD Frederick, MD Carroll, MD Northern Baltimore, MD Harford, MD
Cecil, MD Montgomery, MD Howard, MD Southern Baltimore, MD Kent, MD
Prince Georges, MD Anne Arundel, MD Queen Anne's, MD Charles, MD St. Marys, MD
Calvert, MD Talbot, MD Caroline, MD Extreme Western Alle ..., MD Central And Eastern ..., MD
Ontonagon, MI Baraga, MI Gogebic, MI Iron, MI Dickinson, MI
Southern Houghton, MI Clay, MN Hubbard, MN North Cass, MN West Becker, MN
East Becker, MN Wilkin, MN West Otter Tail, MN East Otter Tail, MN Wadena, MN
South Cass, MN Crow Wing, MN Northern Aitkin, MN South Aitkin, MN Pine, MN
Traverse, MN Grant, MN Douglas, MN Todd, MN Morrison, MN
Mille Lacs, MN Kanabec, MN Big Stone, MN Stevens, MN Pope, MN
Stearns, MN Benton, MN Sherburne, MN Isanti, MN Chisago, MN
Lac Qui Parle, MN Swift, MN Chippewa, MN Kandiyohi, MN Meeker, MN
Wright, MN Hennepin, MN Anoka, MN Ramsey, MN Washington, MN
Yellow Medicine, MN Renville, MN Mcleod, MN Sibley, MN Carver, MN
Scott, MN Dakota, MN Redwood, MN Brown, MN Nicollet, MN
Le Sueur, MN Rice, MN Goodhue, MN Wabasha, MN Watonwan, MN
Blue Earth, MN Waseca, MN Steele, MN Dodge, MN Olmsted, MN
Winona, MN Martin, MN Faribault, MN Freeborn, MN Mower, MN
Fillmore, MN Houston, MN Southwest Minnesota, MN Dawson/mccone/prairi ..., MT Sioux Ranger Distric ..., MT
Mckenzie, ND Dunn, ND Mercer, ND Oliver, ND Mclean, ND
Sheridan, ND Wells, ND Foster, ND Golden Valley, ND Billings, ND
Stark, ND Morton, ND Burleigh, ND Kidder, ND Stutsman, ND
Barnes, ND Cass, ND Slope, ND Hettinger, ND Grant, ND
Bowman, ND Adams, ND Sioux, ND Emmons, ND Logan, ND
La Moure, ND Ransom, ND Mcintosh, ND Dickey, ND Sargent, ND
Richland, ND Cheshire, NH Eastern Hillsborough, NH Western And Central ..., NH Sussex, NJ
Western Passaic, NJ Eastern Passaic, NJ Hudson, NJ Warren, NJ Morris, NJ
Hunterdon, NJ Somerset, NJ Middlesex, NJ Western Monmouth, NJ Eastern Monmouth, NJ
Mercer, NJ Salem, NJ Gloucester, NJ Camden, NJ Northwestern Burling ..., NJ
Ocean, NJ Cumberland, NJ Atlantic, NJ Cape May, NJ Atlantic Coastal Cap ..., NJ
Coastal Atlantic, NJ Coastal Ocean, NJ Southeastern Burling ..., NJ Western Bergen, NJ Eastern Bergen, NJ
Western Essex, NJ Eastern Essex, NJ Western Union, NJ Eastern Union, NJ Southern Herkimer, NY
Southern Fulton, NY Montgomery, NY Schoharie, NY Western Schenectady, NY Western Albany, NY
Western Greene, NY Western Ulster, NY Orange, NY Putnam, NY Rockland, NY
Northern Westchester, NY Southern Westchester, NY New York (manhattan), NY Bronx, NY Richmond (staten Is. ..., NY
Kings (brooklyn), NY Northwest Suffolk, NY Northeast Suffolk, NY Southwest Suffolk, NY Southeast Suffolk, NY
Northern Queens, NY Northern Nassau, NY Southern Queens, NY Southern Nassau, NY Warren, PA
Mckean, PA Potter, PA Elk, PA Cameron, PA Northern Clinton, PA
Clearfield, PA Northern Centre, PA Southern Centre, PA Cambria, PA Blair, PA
Huntingdon, PA Mifflin, PA Juniata, PA Somerset, PA Bedford, PA
Fulton, PA Franklin, PA Tioga, PA Northern Lycoming, PA Sullivan, PA
Southern Clinton, PA Southern Lycoming, PA Union, PA Snyder, PA Montour, PA
Northumberland, PA Columbia, PA Carbon, PA Monroe, PA Perry, PA
Dauphin, PA Schuylkill, PA Lebanon, PA Berks, PA Lehigh, PA
Northampton, PA Cumberland, PA Adams, PA York, PA Lancaster, PA
Chester, PA Montgomery, PA Bucks, PA Delaware, PA Philadelphia, PA
Northwest Providence, RI Southeast Providence, RI Western Kent, RI Eastern Kent, RI Bristol, RI
Washington, RI Newport, RI Block Island, RI Middle James River V ..., SD Middle Big Sioux Riv ..., SD
Lower Bad River, SD Upper Cheyenne, SD Upper Missouri Cotea ..., SD Missouri Coteau, SD Upper James River, SD
Prairie Coteau, SD Red River Valley, SD Montgomery, VA Floyd, VA Craig, VA
Alleghany, VA Bath, VA Roanoke, VA Botetourt, VA Rockbridge, VA
Augusta, VA Rockingham, VA Shenandoah, VA Frederick, VA Page, VA
Warren, VA Clarke, VA Patrick, VA Franklin, VA Bedford, VA
Amherst, VA Greene, VA Madison, VA Rappahannock, VA Loudoun, VA
Henry, VA Pittsylvania, VA Campbell, VA Appomattox, VA Buckingham, VA
Culpeper, VA Prince William/manas ..., VA Fairfax, VA Arlington/falls Chur ..., VA Halifax, VA
Charlotte, VA Northern Fauquier, VA Southern Fauquier, VA Western Highland, VA Eastern Highland, VA
Vilas, WI Burnett, WI Washburn, WI Sawyer, WI Price, WI
Oneida, WI Forest, WI Florence, WI Northern Marinette C ..., WI Polk, WI
Barron, WI Rusk, WI Taylor, WI Lincoln, WI Langlade, WI
Menominee, WI Northern Oconto Coun ..., WI Door, WI St. Croix, WI Pierce, WI
Dunn, WI Pepin, WI Chippewa, WI Eau Claire, WI Clark, WI
Marathon, WI Shawano, WI Buffalo, WI Trempealeau, WI Jackson, WI
Wood, WI Portage, WI Waupaca, WI Outagamie, WI Brown, WI
Kewaunee, WI La Crosse, WI Monroe, WI Juneau, WI Adams, WI
Waushara, WI Marquette, WI Green Lake, WI Winnebago, WI Calumet, WI
Manitowoc, WI Fond Du Lac, WI Sheboygan, WI Vernon, WI Crawford, WI
Richland, WI Sauk, WI Columbia, WI Dodge, WI Washington, WI
Ozaukee, WI Grant, WI Iowa, WI Dane, WI Jefferson, WI
Waukesha, WI Milwaukee, WI Lafayette, WI Green, WI Rock, WI
Walworth, WI Racine, WI Kenosha, WI Southern Marinette C ..., WI Southern Oconto Coun ..., WI
Hampshire, WV Morgan, WV Berkeley, WV Jefferson, WV Hardy, WV
Western Grant, WV Eastern Grant, WV Western Mineral, WV Eastern Mineral, WV Western Pendleton, WV
Eastern Pendleton, WV Central And Northern ..., WY Southwest Carbon Cou ..., WY Upper North Platte R ..., WY Laramie Valley/shirl ..., WY
South Laramie Range/ ..., WY



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 8 2012, 06:28 PM

[LUCC]

The cool down is still clearly there, I'm not sure what you're looking at... it's far from a cold spell, but there's still going to be a sustained trough from now through the late week, which is very remarkable for this winter considering that almost no trough lasted beyond 2 days at once. The coastal was a likely exaggeration, but the idea of scattered showers with chilly temperatures is still valid. And the warm spell shown for next weekend, while very possible, is still questionable given that the models under this new pattern tend to overestimate long range warmth, and there's still enough weak disturbances modeled that one of them could turn into a cutoff or a weak back door cold front.

Just as a note, I'm on vacation this week (outside of the US) so I don't know what's exactly happening right now in NJ, but from what I saw on Thursday and what I'm seeing on the models now, not much seems to have changed.

Yeah, the cool is there, maybe seasonal at best. The coastal and below normal temps are not going to happen for the MidAtl as was depicted by models last week. As you said, cool temps, compared to the 60s/70s we had the past couple weeks, for the next couple days but above normal temps and little precip looks to be the case late week into next week.
We need rain bad and the only possible decent precip, except for an occassional shower, I see is two weeks away.

[The Day After To...]

I heard on the news this morning at about 8:26am, that a fire that started at 4 grew to 500 acres.

[grandpaboy]

I heard on the news this morning at about 8:26am, that a fire that started at 4 grew to 500 acres.

Winds will be a huge factor in the NE and MA today.......with that huge LP to the north expect 40 to 50 gusts in the region, which not help any fire efforts today.......

[grandpaboy]

Some gusts approaching 50mph......

[The Day After To...]

Fire near Great Kills, Staten Island. Saw it on NBC 4. (NYC)

[NorEaster07]

Some gusts approaching 50mph......

My station showing about 2 gusts over 20mph every 15 minutes. Looks like its dying down now. But expecting a 20mph+ gust before 12:30.

Max so far is 34



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 9 2012, 11:27 AM

[Undertakerson]

Why?

because other weather events can be forewarned and a safety plan enacted! Not so with mountain fires.

Case in point. Two weeks ago a neighbor carelessly discarded ashes on a Tuesday. On Wednesday at 21:30 a hot ember sparked a mountain fire less than 1/4 mile from my backyard. This was almost two full days later and the TOD was when few travel my road. Fortunately, one passing motorist noticed the fire and the crews arrived to quickly extinguish it before it took a firm hold. But I was sleeping and had it gotten worse, there would have been no weather radio to wake me up with an alarm or alert.

Red Flags up all over the region again today as posted earlier. Keep those fires out and those ciggy Butts in the cars, people!!