April 13-16 Plains/MW/OV/GL Storm, Reality: Short Range (0-4 Days Out) Forecasts Options

[jdrenken]

Please post non-severe post in here.

[NorEaster07]

Instead of hunting for Easter Eggs today, I'm hunting for snow flakes. LOL

Latest GFS has up to a foot of snow for Grand County, CO Next Monday. 4-10" in and around there.
Details will change as we get closer.

You can find the cities in that county here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_County,_Colorado

[Denver Weather]

Could sort out to be a MONSTEROUS spring snowstorm for parts of Colorado and Wyoming, with talk of up to 4 feet of snow in the foothills and potential heavy snow in Denver. Here's the latest update from the NWS:

CODE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
355 PM MDT WED APR 11 2012
. . .

.LONG TERM...SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE MODELS TODAY ON THIS WEEKENDS
STORM...THOUGH STILL SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY. THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR NOW IS LOOKING LIKE THE
TEMPERATURES.


FOR THE MAIN FEATURE...BETTER AGREEMENT NOW ON THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVES...WITH CONSENSUS SHOWING A SLOW MOVING LOW
WITH THE SHORTWAVES MAKING IT WOBBLE AS IT MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES.
GFS HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY BUT HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING
FASTER NOW...RESULTING IN ABOUT A 30 HOUR PERIOD OF GOOD UPSLOPE.
ECMWF IS NOT AS SPLIT BUT IS A BIT FASTER. GFS HAS THE LOW COMING
RIGHT OVER US...AND AS A RESULT PUTS DENVER ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS ITS LOW MORE
CONSOLIDATED THAN YESTERDAYS WITH A COMPROMISE POSITION ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS SOLUTION IS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE AND
WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. STILL A LONG PERIOD...MAYBE 24
HOURS...OF GOOD UPSLOPE WITH LOW STABILITY AND LOTS OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THE ODDS OF A COUPLE FEET OF SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS ARE
LOOKING BETTER. GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 50 INCHES OF SNOW IN ITS
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREA...AND THE ECMWF NUMBERS ARE JUST A LITTLE LOWER
DUE TO THE FASTER MOVEMENT.

THE DETAILS WILL BE MORE IMPORTANT FOR THE PLAINS PRECIP...THOUGH A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING A WETTING RAIN/SNOW EVENT ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE TEMPERATURE. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS THE SNOW LEVEL RIGHT AROUND THE DENVER AREA...AT THIS
POINT WOULD FAVOR THE IDEA OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
AND STAYING SNOW ON SUNDAY BUT A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER WAY WOULD
MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE. WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE...THIS COULD STILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ESPECIALLY THE WEIGHT
OF THE WET SNOW ON VEGETATION. TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED WITH SOIL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND AIR TEMPERATURES
THAT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND FREEZING. HIGH MODEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LOOK UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE METHODOLOGY
UNDERESTIMATING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BUT EVEN WITH SOME RAIN AND
LOW SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY WET SNOW.

[Denver Weather]

Looking at the models, as well as the local discussions from Denver, Cheyenne, and various points in Nebraska and South Dakota, it appears there is increasing likliehood of a major late season snowstorm from the Front Range of Colorado, Southern Wyoming, Western and Central Nebraska, and into South Dakota. I won't be surprised to see Winter Storm Watches pop up for parts of Colorado and Wyoming later today.

This post has been edited by Denver Weather: Apr 12 2012, 10:44 AM

[wxman1952]

Looks like I could get into some heavy rain in my area here in Michigan. I sure hope so. We need it and I plan on fertilizing the lawn just before this weekends rain too. lol

http://saginawcountyweather.webs.com/

[WeatherMonger]

This threads feeling a bit neglected

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1031 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...STRONG WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO MID
EVENING...

.INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL TRACK TO NEAR THE
IOWA AND MINNESOTA BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. THE VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY.
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST WERE SHOWING 50 TO 60
MPH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER WINDS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE TO THE GROUND FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO MID EVENING. SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-160300-
/O.CON.KILX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120416T0300Z/
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-
MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-
COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-
CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALESBURG...PEORIA...BLOOMINGTON...
NORMAL...HAVANA...LINCOLN...CHAMPAIGN...URBANA...D
NVILLE...
JACKSONVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...TAYLORVILLE...DECATUR
..CHARLESTON...
MATTOON...SHELBYVILLE...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWREN
EVILLE
1031 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO MID EVENING UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY ON EAST-WEST ORIENTATED ROADWAYS SUCH AS
I-74...I-72 AND I-70. IN ADDITION... ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS
SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE SECURED IN ORDER TO PREVENT
THEM FROM BLOWING AROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

HUETTL/SMITH

[WeatherMonger]

Humidity is worse than the wind. Had a 38mph gust last hour, see if it can increase into the 40/50's later

Springfield, Capital Airport
Lat: 39.86   Lon: -89.67   Elev: 586
Last Update on Apr 15, 12:52 pm CDT

A Few Clouds and Breezy

75 °F
(24 °C)
Humidity: 66 %
Wind Speed: S 24 G 38 MPH
Barometer: 29.75" (1006.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 63 °F (17 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
504 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EASTERN LACLEDE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
MARIES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
MILLER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
PHELPS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

* AT 500 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT THESE STORMS WERE PRODUCING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW
WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF
FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE HH IN TUSCUMBIA...
ROUTE N AT THE MARIES RIVER EAST OF BRINKTOWN...
HIGHWAY 8 FIVE MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT JAMES...
ROUTE O AT JONES CREEK JUST SOUTH OF DIXON...
ROUTE H...3 MILES NORTHWEST OF STOUTLAND.

[NorEaster07]

Cook, Itasca, Koochiching, Lake, & St. Louis Counties in Minnesota:

439 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
CDT THIS MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* LOCATION...ITASCA...SOUTHEASTERN KOOCHICHING...CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ST LOUIS...AND NORTHERN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY MORNING

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 9 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY...WET SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED OVERNIGHT...WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES. THE WEIGHT OF THE
SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE SOME TREE LIMBS TO COLLAPSE. THIS WILL CAUSE
LOCAL POWER OUTAGES.