Gulf of Mexico Tropical Development 2012, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Waves and LPs Options

[jdrenken]

I can't contribute much while at work, but felt the threads were needed for this upcoming season.

[MAC292OH10]

long shot, but a hy-brid like look to it...pretty dis-organized and shear will be on blast...interesting little feature tho...

00Z 4KM WRF_NMM @60hr...

[jdrenken]

long shot, but a hy-brid like look to it...pretty dis-organized and shear will be on blast...interesting little feature tho...

Welcome back stranger!

[MAC292OH10]

Welcome back stranger!

thx, yeah yeah its been a while for sure....lol...was flipping thru radar sims and noticed this little feature...looks like a LP develops along the tail-end of a stalled and gets absorbed or blown out by the bigger mid lat system digging into the S.cent US...






http://policlimate.com/weather/

[MAC292OH10]

18Z 4KM WRF_NMM @45hr





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http://policlimate.com/weather/

This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Apr 19 2012, 09:30 PM

[Phased Vort]

Folks, we need to watch for possible tropical development over the N´western Caribbean and going into the easter GOMEX by the end of the month of May and begining of hurricane season.


It seems that the western Caribbean may be kind of active for these last two weeks of May, which could result in this potential over the eastern GOMEX.

[jdrenken]

Watch the gulf for development. It's not difficult to spin something up with a cold front stalling out.

Day 5 and 6 had a stationary front along the coast.

12Z 02JUN12 Euro Control had a 1004mb South of Pensacola.

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[Ron in Miami]

Watch the gulf for development. It's not difficult to spin something up with a cold front stalling out.

Day 5 and 6 had a stationary front along the coast.

12Z 02JUN12 Euro Control had a 1004mb South of Pensacola.

That's interesting, I was looking at a few of the GFS runs this morning and all 3 that I looked at (the 0, 6, 12z) all showed something spinning up around the 16-18th. But those runs showed it coming up from the southern Caribbean, not developing in the gulf.

If that stalled front is still hanging around, it could drag what ever develops across Cuba and or Florida. The last frame of the run showed it at 999mb.

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Jun 2 2012, 02:41 PM

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[jdrenken]

That's interesting, I was looking at a few of the GFS runs this morning and all 3 that I looked at (the 0, 6, 12z) all showed something spinning up around the 16-18th. But those runs showed it coming up from the southern Caribbean, not developing in the gulf.

If that stalled front is still hanging around, it could drag what ever develops across Cuba and or Florida. The last frame of the run showed it at 999mb.

Even though it's been in the GFS runs this morning, it has been hinting in the LR of something developing in the Gulf for quite a few days now.

[Superstorm93]

ECMWF takes JD's front and develops a system in the Gulf that tracks along the SE coast and NNW towards the MA region by 240 hours.





This post has been edited by Superstorm93: Jun 2 2012, 08:47 PM

[Phased Vort]

ECMWF takes JD's front and develops a system in the Gulf that tracks along the SE coast and NNW towards the MA region by 240 hours.

12Z run of June 3rd indeed did that.

00Z run of June 4th, has gone from black to white. It has a totally different setup concerning the upper air and surface isobars flow.


The GFS on the other hand, has a system entering the GOMEX coming from the western Caribbean, on quite a few runs. However, it seems to be on a later time frame than the one depicted on the ECMWF.


At any rate, the GOMEX, as JD said is a good place to wait for the next possible development.

[jdrenken]

Larry Cosgrove is going with June 15-17th to watch.

[Phased Vort]

Good morning folks.

Hope all f you have had a great night.


Could we have a micro tropical system in the GOMEX starting sometime today and lasting into tomorrow?







If by some chance the strong cluster of thunderstorms can spin a tiny low pressure system even with shear over the area, a micro tropical system could form, or at least something that would resemble one.

The June 6th 00Z ECMWF believes such a tiny system may form today and last into tomorrow, making landfall into the Florida panhandle. Has anyone noticed it?

Any houghts?

[Phased Vort]

Good morning folks.

Hope all f you have had a great night.
Could we have a micro tropical system in the GOMEX starting sometime today and lasting into tomorrow?







If by some chance the strong cluster of thunderstorms can spin a tiny low pressure system even with shear over the area, a micro tropical system could form, or at least something that would resemble one.

The June 6th 00Z ECMWF believes such a tiny system may form today and last into tomorrow, making landfall into the Florida panhandle. Has anyone noticed it?

Any houghts?

Image with fronts.

[CanadianKeegan]

@phasedvort

The system looks pretty ragged under all the shear (what is it, like 40kt plus?), But it looks like the upper-flow is very divergent over the system. It's gunna be one of those storms

[Phased Vort]

@phasedvort

The system looks pretty ragged under all the shear (what is it, like 40kt plus?), But it looks like the upper-flow is very divergent over the system. It's gunna be one of those storms

Indeed.

Shear is pretty hostile. Until now it does not seem what the ECMWF saw may have a chance of happening. The shear would have to die down a little while.

[Undertakerson]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
941 AM EDT SAT JUN 09 2012

VALID 12Z WED JUN 13 2012 - 12Z SAT JUN 16 2012

A STRENGTHENING CORE OF NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALIES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITH TIME...WHICH WILL RE-ESTABLISH A TROUGH IN
THE WEST AND CAUSE RIDGING TO BUILD IN THE EAST. A MOBILE
POSITIVE ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES EAST FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA...CAUSING A DEEP CYCLONE TO REMAIN PARKED
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA/SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CANADA AND SHOULD
NOT ALLOW SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING ANYWHERE NEAR THE EAST COAST IN
CONTRAST TO THAT FCST BY THE 00Z CANADIAN SOLUTION. PRIMARY DIFFS
SEEN IN LATEST GUIDANCE INVOLVE TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THE TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST AND SOME SHRTWV DIFFS IN THE LESS
AMPLIFIED FLOW AHEAD OF THE WRN TROF.

WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WRN TROF THE 00Z GFS/UKMET SHOW HIGHER HGTS
THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE INCL THE 00Z GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS. INTO DAY 5 THU THE 06Z GFS IS A TAD DEEPER THAN THE
GUIDANCE AVG BUT NOT UNREASONABLE. BY DAYS 6-7 FRI-SAT THE
00Z/06Z GFS BOTH TREND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS WITH THE MID LVL
SYSTEM. THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARES REASONABLY WELL TO THE MEANS THRU
DAY 7. RECENT LAGGED AVG FCSTS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ADD SUPPORT FOR
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN OVER THE WEST.

DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHRTWV THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE NRN PLAINS/UPR GRTLKS AROUND THU-FRI. THE
00Z GFS/UKMET ARE ON THE STRONGER/FASTER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM
WHILE THE 06Z GFS IS ON THE SLOW/NWWD SIDE. ENSEMBLES ARE
SUFFICIENTLY DIVERSE TO YIELD MEANS THAT ARE RELATIVELY FLAT WITH
THIS FEATURE. AMPLITUDE OF SUCH A SHRTWV SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT
GIVEN THE LOWERING OF HGTS OVER THE WEST. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SHRTWV INTO CANADA... THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER ERN
RIDGE THAN OTHER SOLNS BY FRI-SAT.

EXPECT RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF MEXICO...WHICH MAY
AID IN A COUPLE ATTEMPTS AT TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO PER YDAYS 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. LATE IN
THE PERIOD... CONSENSUS FLOW OVER/NEAR THE CONUS MAY ALLOW A SFC
WAVE TO REACH THE GULF STREAM. THE WAVE MAY LOSE ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES UNDER THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A BUILDING
RIDGE BY NEXT WEEKEND... WHEN IT SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR ANY SIGN OF
CONVECTIVE/WARM CORE DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE BOTH
ALBERTO AND BERYL FORMED IN MAY.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

[NYCSuburbs]

This could apply here as well:

Too early to know if this potential is real or not, and exactly where it would be located, but I would place the next possibility for tropical development around the June 18-24 time frame with another ridge building into the northern US/southern Canada with lower heights further south.

[NorEaster07]

GFS6z 6/13/12 Hr 276

[MAC292OH10]

GFS6z 6/13/12 Hr 276