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> Eastern Atlantic Tropical Development 2012, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Waves and LPs
jdrenken
post Apr 9 2012, 04:36 PM
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Feel free...


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Phased Vort
post Jun 21 2012, 06:16 PM
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12Z and 18Z GFS have started to suggest that the African wave train should start rolling by the start of July, with a couple of possible invests come that time.


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albanyweather
post Jun 21 2012, 07:55 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jun 21 2012, 07:16 PM) *
12Z and 18Z GFS have started to suggest that the African wave train should start rolling by the start of July, with a couple of possible invests come that time.

Its about time cool.gif

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Ron in Miami
post Jun 27 2012, 02:21 PM
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I saw this yesterday on the visible sat loop and thought it looked interesting, apparently the NHC thought so too! Today it has a 10% chance of development (not an invest yet).

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 90 MILES
EAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE..IF ANY...SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

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Juniorrr
post Jun 29 2012, 10:02 AM
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QUOTE
2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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hurricanehunter
post Jun 29 2012, 01:03 PM
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Central Atlantic wave now up to 20%
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weather-major94
post Jun 30 2012, 05:49 PM
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QUOTE(hurricanehunter @ Jun 29 2012, 01:03 PM) *
Central Atlantic wave now up to 20%


wave in central atlantic is now off the invest map.

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Phased Vort
post Jul 13 2012, 09:32 AM
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GFS giving us a possible shot at some activity on the dust covered tropical Atlantic.

06Z GFS:

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CanadianKeegan
post Jul 23 2012, 11:47 AM
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The ECMWF 00z and GFS 12z are both showing a weak tropical wave off Africa maintaining low pressure for a few days.
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MAC292OH10
post Jul 23 2012, 05:49 PM
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QUOTE(CanadianKeegan @ Jul 23 2012, 12:47 PM) *
The ECMWF 00z and GFS 12z are both showing a weak tropical wave off Africa maintaining low pressure for a few days.


its a fantasy land fish storm, but hey we are scraping the bottom of the barrel untill the MJO becomes favoable for development around the below frame of time...

12Z GEFS 996mb@384
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This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jul 23 2012, 05:50 PM
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Removed_Member_Doorman_*
post Jul 24 2012, 08:09 PM
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Cape Verde Watch cool.gif

[attachment=166813:20120724...cBasin_x.jpg]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/tropics.cgi

Cimms guidance shows a LLC for starters.......

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmm...;zoom=&time

[attachment=166814:wm7dlm1.png]

[attachment=166815:wv_l.jpg]

[attachment=166816:GOES2345...06ee7whU.jpg]

http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnol...ropics/sectors/

SAL is a non-factor ---for now
[attachment=166817:splitE.jpg]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salm...splitE&time


slow season straw grasping?
you betcha!!!!


dm

This post has been edited by Doorman: Jul 24 2012, 08:30 PM
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NYCSuburbs
post Jul 25 2012, 01:40 AM
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QUOTE(Doorman @ Jul 24 2012, 09:09 PM) *

slow season straw grasping?
you betcha!!!!


dm

Who was straw grasping here? Quite obvious the Atlantic is having a very hard time getting its act together, taking us until at least August 3-10 at the earliest IMO for the first Cape Verde activity since June, if not later than that. There could still be something small that pops up before that, such as maybe that tropical disturbance in the open ocean which I'm not too sure about.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jul 25 2012, 01:41 AM
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jdrenken
post Jul 25 2012, 01:19 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jul 25 2012, 01:40 AM) *
Who was straw grasping here? Quite obvious the Atlantic is having a very hard time getting its act together, taking us until at least August 3-10 at the earliest IMO for the first Cape Verde activity since June, if not later than that. There could still be something small that pops up before that, such as maybe that tropical disturbance in the open ocean which I'm not too sure about.


Doorman actually brought out the good points of development in the post.


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Removed_Member_Doorman_*
post Jul 25 2012, 06:10 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jul 25 2012, 02:19 PM) *
Doorman actually brought out the good points of development in the post.



thanks JD cool.gif

I thought it may have been a bit of a reach yesterday but......
the wave is holding its own today
some guidance keeps it intact thru early next week

the launching pad has more behind this one!

[attachment=166876:wvmid.jpg]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/
72hr forecast
[attachment=166878:atlsfc72_latestBW.gif]

This post has been edited by Doorman: Jul 25 2012, 06:16 PM
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MAC292OH10
post Jul 25 2012, 06:49 PM
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FranklinNJ
post Jul 26 2012, 11:30 PM
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QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ Jul 25 2012, 07:49 PM) *

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Attached Image


Just a question, what on earth is that in the NE?
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Removed_Member_Doorman_*
post Jul 27 2012, 05:28 AM
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QUOTE(FranklinNJ @ Jul 27 2012, 12:30 AM) *
Just a question, what on earth is that in the NE?



FNJ-off topic but here you go

Vertical Shear Guidance ---

read on
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/m.../wind/home.rxml

for the record there was a tornado watch in that location yesterday

[attachment=167035:post_132...92_thumb.png]

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MAC292OH10
post Jul 27 2012, 05:38 AM
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QUOTE(FranklinNJ @ Jul 27 2012, 12:30 AM) *
Just a question, what on earth is that in the NE?


on the vertical shear map, that is an uppper level trough...
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Removed_Member_Doorman_*
post Jul 27 2012, 05:42 AM
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This wave IS worth tracking for our audience of six people rolleyes.gif

[attachment=167037:trop.png]

rollin and tumblin
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rgb.html


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
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rainstorm
post Aug 3 2012, 09:26 PM
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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=168hr

GFS shows what looks to be a tropical storm moving off the african coast.

This post has been edited by rainstorm: Aug 3 2012, 09:28 PM
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