 Eastern Atlantic Tropical Development 2012, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Waves and LPs |
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  Apr 9 2012, 04:36 PM
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#1
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Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: SuperModerator Posts: 37,822 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521  |
Feel free...
-------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.  Organicforecasting Blog Organicforecasting data 89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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Jun 21 2012, 06:16 PM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 18,492 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
12Z and 18Z GFS have started to suggest that the African wave train should start rolling by the start of July, with a couple of possible invests come that time.
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Jun 21 2012, 07:55 PM
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#3
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,941 Joined: 5-February 09 From: Albany, NY Member No.: 17,493 |
QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jun 21 2012, 07:16 PM)  12Z and 18Z GFS have started to suggest that the African wave train should start rolling by the start of July, with a couple of possible invests come that time. Its about time 
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-------------------- Snowfall 2016-2017: 58.7"
2015-2016: 13.1" 2014-2015: 72.1" 2013-2014: 79" 2012-2013: 48.8" 2011-2012: 23.3" 2010-2011: 80.2" Seasonal Normal: 60.3" |
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Jun 27 2012, 02:21 PM
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#4
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 905 Joined: 31-August 10 From: Miami FL Member No.: 23,522 |
I saw this yesterday on the visible sat loop and thought it looked interesting, apparently the NHC thought so too! Today it has a 10% chance of development (not an invest yet).
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA. 1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE..IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN 
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Jun 29 2012, 10:02 AM
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#5
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,589 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
 QUOTE 2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. -------------------- Snowfall to date
12/13/16 - 5" 1/5/17 - 3" 1/27/17 - 0.25" dusting 2/8/17 - 1.25" 3/13/17 - just about 1.0" |
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Jun 29 2012, 01:03 PM
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#6
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 555 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Windsor Locks Ct. Member No.: 12,104 |
Central Atlantic wave now up to 20%
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Jun 30 2012, 05:49 PM
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#7
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 251 Joined: 19-June 10 From: Clear lake Shores, TX Member No.: 23,001 |
QUOTE(hurricanehunter @ Jun 29 2012, 01:03 PM) Central Atlantic wave now up to 20% wave in central atlantic is now off the invest map. 
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Jul 13 2012, 09:32 AM
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 18,492 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
GFS giving us a possible shot at some activity on the dust covered tropical Atlantic.
06Z GFS:
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Jul 23 2012, 11:47 AM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 545 Joined: 28-August 10 From: Halifax, Nova Scotia Member No.: 23,497 |
The ECMWF 00z and GFS 12z are both showing a weak tropical wave off Africa maintaining low pressure for a few days.
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Jul 23 2012, 05:49 PM
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#10
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,071 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
QUOTE(CanadianKeegan @ Jul 23 2012, 12:47 PM) The ECMWF 00z and GFS 12z are both showing a weak tropical wave off Africa maintaining low pressure for a few days. its a fantasy land fish storm, but hey we are scraping the bottom of the barrel untill the MJO becomes favoable for development around the below frame of time... 12Z GEFS 996mb@384
This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jul 23 2012, 05:50 PM |
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| Removed_Member_Doorman_* |
Jul 24 2012, 08:09 PM
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#11
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Guests |
Cape Verde Watch
[attachment=166813:20120724...cBasin_x.jpg] http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/tropics.cgi Cimms guidance shows a LLC for starters....... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmm...;zoom=&time [attachment=166814:wm7dlm1.png] [attachment=166815:wv_l.jpg] [attachment=166816:GOES2345...06ee7whU.jpg] http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnol...ropics/sectors/ SAL is a non-factor ---for now [attachment=166817:splitE.jpg] http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salm...splitE&time slow season straw grasping? you betcha!!!! dm This post has been edited by Doorman: Jul 24 2012, 08:30 PM |
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Jul 25 2012, 01:40 AM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 33,603 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(Doorman @ Jul 24 2012, 09:09 PM) slow season straw grasping? you betcha!!!! dm Who was straw grasping here? Quite obvious the Atlantic is having a very hard time getting its act together, taking us until at least August 3-10 at the earliest IMO for the first Cape Verde activity since June, if not later than that. There could still be something small that pops up before that, such as maybe that tropical disturbance in the open ocean which I'm not too sure about. This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jul 25 2012, 01:41 AM |
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Jul 25 2012, 01:19 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 37,822 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jul 25 2012, 01:40 AM) Who was straw grasping here? Quite obvious the Atlantic is having a very hard time getting its act together, taking us until at least August 3-10 at the earliest IMO for the first Cape Verde activity since June, if not later than that. There could still be something small that pops up before that, such as maybe that tropical disturbance in the open ocean which I'm not too sure about. Doorman actually brought out the good points of development in the post. -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. Organicforecasting Blog Organicforecasting data 89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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| Removed_Member_Doorman_* |
Jul 25 2012, 06:10 PM
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#14
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jul 25 2012, 02:19 PM) Doorman actually brought out the good points of development in the post. thanks JD I thought it may have been a bit of a reach yesterday but...... the wave is holding its own today some guidance keeps it intact thru early next week the launching pad has more behind this one! [attachment=166876:wvmid.jpg] http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/ 72hr forecast [attachment=166878:atlsfc72_latestBW.gif] This post has been edited by Doorman: Jul 25 2012, 06:16 PM |
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Jul 25 2012, 06:49 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,071 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
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Jul 26 2012, 11:30 PM
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#16
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 70 Joined: 13-January 08 From: Franklin Boro, NJ Member No.: 12,472 |
QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ Jul 25 2012, 07:49 PM)
Just a question, what on earth is that in the NE? |
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| Removed_Member_Doorman_* |
Jul 27 2012, 05:28 AM
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#17
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QUOTE(FranklinNJ @ Jul 27 2012, 12:30 AM) Just a question, what on earth is that in the NE? FNJ-off topic but here you go Vertical Shear Guidance --- read on http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/m.../wind/home.rxml for the record there was a tornado watch in that location yesterday [attachment=167035:post_132...92_thumb.png] |
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Jul 27 2012, 05:38 AM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,071 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
QUOTE(FranklinNJ @ Jul 27 2012, 12:30 AM) Just a question, what on earth is that in the NE? on the vertical shear map, that is an uppper level trough... |
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| Removed_Member_Doorman_* |
Jul 27 2012, 05:42 AM
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#19
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This wave IS worth tracking for our audience of six people
 [attachment=167037:trop.png] rollin and tumblin http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rgb.html http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml |
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Aug 3 2012, 09:26 PM
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#20
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 180 Joined: 6-March 09 Member No.: 17,856 |
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=168hr
GFS shows what looks to be a tropical storm moving off the african coast. This post has been edited by rainstorm: Aug 3 2012, 09:28 PM |
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