 Atlantic Hurricane Season 2012, All Seasonal Forecasts & Updates Here |
AccuWeather.com Forums > Weather Forums > Current Weather - United States > Current Tropical Season Weather  |
  Apr 9 2012, 04:36 PM
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#1
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Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521  |
Let 'er rip.
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Apr 12 2012, 03:55 PM
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#2
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 350 Joined: 28-August 10 From: Halifax, Nova Scotia Member No.: 23,497 |
Possible sub-tropical system over the central atlantic next week, according to the GFS and ECMWF
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Apr 13 2012, 08:07 AM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,277 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(CanadianKeegan @ Apr 12 2012, 03:55 PM)  Possible sub-tropical system over the central atlantic next week, according to the GFS and ECMWF This system does actually appear to have subtropical characteristics on the ECM... if it's actually true we'd have to watch for development 96 hours out (Monday) east of Virginia and SE of Newfoundland from energy that splits from the trough currently moving off the East Coast. This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Apr 13 2012, 08:09 AM -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Apr 17 2012, 09:46 PM
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#4
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,415 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
We have 91L but the main site isnt updating.
-------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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Apr 17 2012, 09:57 PM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,415 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
-------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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Apr 20 2012, 11:01 AM
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#6
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 242 Joined: 19-June 10 From: Clear lake Shores, TX Member No.: 23,001 |
QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 17 2012, 09:57 PM)
and let the season begin! may the odds.. lol jk. anyone have a comprehensive link to the models? ive lost all my bookmarks. This post has been edited by weather-major94: Apr 20 2012, 11:02 AM |
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Apr 21 2012, 07:16 AM
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#7
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,478 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
QUOTE(weather-major94 @ Apr 20 2012, 11:01 AM) and let the season begin! may the odds.. lol jk. anyone have a comprehensive link to the models? ive lost all my bookmarks. Lots of models on the FSU tropical page. Link A couple other FSU plots Link Link And the must-have CIMSS. Link I have too many bookmarks 
-------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 4 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Apr 21 2012, 03:33 PM
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#8
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,400 Joined: 11-January 08 From: Philadelphia Member No.: 12,252 |
Downwelling Easterly QBO with ENSO near neutral to potentially weak El-Nino. MJO could very well be shifted near phases 6-8 which overall is unfavorable for Atlantic development. Thinking a below average season and a pretty good chance of a nice subtropical ridge over the C Atlantic to increase E US landfall potential with a generally weak +NAO to continue (0 to +1).
-------------------- The only way of finding the limits of the possible is by going beyond them into the impossible. ~Arthur C Clarke
It is better to have people think you a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. ~Mark Twain A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need the advice. ~Bill Cosby Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose. ~Bill Gates |
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Apr 21 2012, 04:13 PM
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#9
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,860 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 |
This year should defintely be below the 1995-2011 average, but I still think we can squeeze out 12-13 storms if the Nino can hold off until late summer or so.
-------------------- -Mike P
Realism |
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Apr 21 2012, 06:39 PM
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#10
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,478 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Apr 21 2012, 04:13 PM) This year should defintely be below the 1995-2011 average, but I still think we can squeeze out 12-13 storms if the Nino can hold off until late summer or so. I could see a mainly neutral ENSO season evolving with a hint of some Nino characteristics. This post has been edited by The Snowman: Apr 21 2012, 06:41 PM -------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 4 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Apr 23 2012, 08:29 AM
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#11
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,125 Joined: 8-April 10 From: Baltimore, MD Member No.: 22,491 |
QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Apr 21 2012, 03:33 PM) Downwelling Easterly QBO with ENSO near neutral to potentially weak El-Nino. MJO could very well be shifted near phases 6-8 which overall is unfavorable for Atlantic development. Thinking a below average season and a pretty good chance of a nice subtropical ridge over the C Atlantic to increase E US landfall potential with a generally weak +NAO to continue (0 to +1). What forces drive an increased chance for a subtropical ridge over the C Atlantic? -------------------- You can lead a horse to water but a pencil must be lead. - Stan Laurel
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Apr 24 2012, 03:59 PM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,275 Joined: 11-December 11 From: PA Member No.: 26,255 |
No Irene repeat?
-------------------- PA FF/EMT
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Apr 24 2012, 05:33 PM
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#13
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 438 Joined: 6-July 11 From: New Castle, PA Member No.: 25,804 |
QUOTE(DiehardFF @ Apr 24 2012, 04:59 PM) No Irene repeat? You can't predict where storms would be. We could easily see an Irene repeat. We could see an even stronger storm. We could see no storms in hundreds of miles of the east coast. -------------------- ~Snowy♥
QUOTE There's a blaze of light in every word It doesn't matter which you heard The holy or the broken Hallelujah |
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Apr 25 2012, 10:48 AM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,758 Joined: 16-November 08 From: Cincinnati, OH Member No.: 16,172 |
QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Apr 21 2012, 05:13 PM) This year should defintely be below the 1995-2011 average, but I still think we can squeeze out 12-13 storms if the Nino can hold off until late summer or so. As of recent I take no long range forecast serious. -------------------- Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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Apr 27 2012, 11:24 AM
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#15
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 242 Joined: 19-June 10 From: Clear lake Shores, TX Member No.: 23,001 |
QUOTE(The Snowman @ Apr 21 2012, 07:16 AM) Lots of models on the FSU tropical page. Link A couple other FSU plots Link Link And the must-have CIMSS. Link I have too many bookmarks Much appreciated, good sir. i havent really heard much about season predictions, is this going to be an active year (im not big on long range forcasts, but they generally help set the mood, you know?)? new computers make things so hard!
This post has been edited by weather-major94: Apr 27 2012, 11:26 AM |
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Apr 28 2012, 07:47 PM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,478 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
QUOTE(weather-major94 @ Apr 27 2012, 11:24 AM) Much appreciated, good sir. i havent really heard much about season predictions, is this going to be an active year (im not big on long range forcasts, but they generally help set the mood, you know?)? new computers make things so hard! Anytime. I am a quantity over quality person, so there are over 20 folders on my browser. Makes for a pretty fun hunt for any specific link Speaking of a potentially active year, I found this off the IRI site This post has been edited by The Snowman: Apr 28 2012, 07:49 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
-------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 4 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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May 8 2012, 11:10 AM
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#17
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,825 Joined: 24-January 08 From: 39.96N, 74.2W Member No.: 12,978 |
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
Note: weatherbell hurricane forecast has low ace, but high impact relative to ace as april gulf temps good signal for in close action http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi -------------------- Fall/Winter 2012/13---------
First Snow: 11/7/12 - 7 inches Bunch of Clippers that produced a total of 3 inches... 2/8/13 - Blizzard backend snows - 6.5 inches +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ WINTER 2009/2010 Season 73.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2010/2011 Season total - 49 inches ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2011/2012 Season Toal - Too little to mention |
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May 9 2012, 06:52 PM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,277 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
How I miss this time of the year... that time between the first modeled fantasy hurricane and the first actual hurricane that can take up to 1-2 months
-------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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May 9 2012, 09:35 PM
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#19
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,039 Joined: 5-February 09 From: Albany, NY Member No.: 17,493 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ May 9 2012, 07:52 PM) How I miss this time of the year... that time between the first modeled fantasy hurricane and the first actual hurricane that can take up to 1-2 months yup, been watching the long range. 18z GFS has it too. Been seeing signs on the GFS for a few days now. Just have to wait and see if the GEM & Euro see it to. Its about time to for the tropics to get going  
-------------------- 2013 Thunder Storm Days: 2
Severe Watches: 2 Severe Warnings: 0 Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8" Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3" Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2" Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3" Snowfall 2008-2009: 52.5" Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7" |
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May 10 2012, 07:02 AM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,478 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
-------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 4 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 23rd May 2013 - 10:41 AM |