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> Atlantic Hurricane Season 2012, All Seasonal Forecasts & Updates Here
jdrenken
post Apr 9 2012, 04:36 PM
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Let 'er rip.


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CanadianKeegan
post Apr 12 2012, 03:55 PM
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Possible sub-tropical system over the central atlantic next week, according to the GFS and ECMWF
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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 13 2012, 08:07 AM
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QUOTE(CanadianKeegan @ Apr 12 2012, 03:55 PM) *
Possible sub-tropical system over the central atlantic next week, according to the GFS and ECMWF

This system does actually appear to have subtropical characteristics on the ECM... if it's actually true we'd have to watch for development 96 hours out (Monday) east of Virginia and SE of Newfoundland from energy that splits from the trough currently moving off the East Coast.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Apr 13 2012, 08:09 AM
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NorEaster07
post Apr 17 2012, 09:46 PM
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We have 91L but the main site isnt updating.

Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Apr 17 2012, 09:57 PM
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Attached Image



Attached Image



--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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weather-major94
post Apr 20 2012, 11:01 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 17 2012, 09:57 PM) *

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and let the season begin!
may the odds.. lol jk.

anyone have a comprehensive link to the models? ive lost all my bookmarks.

This post has been edited by weather-major94: Apr 20 2012, 11:02 AM
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The Snowman
post Apr 21 2012, 07:16 AM
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QUOTE(weather-major94 @ Apr 20 2012, 11:01 AM) *
and let the season begin!
may the odds.. lol jk.

anyone have a comprehensive link to the models? ive lost all my bookmarks.

Lots of models on the FSU tropical page.
Link

A couple other FSU plots
Link
Link

And the must-have CIMSS.
Link

I have too many bookmarks laugh.gif


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My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 2.0" (Updated 11/21/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


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Weatherjunkie
post Apr 21 2012, 03:33 PM
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Downwelling Easterly QBO with ENSO near neutral to potentially weak El-Nino. MJO could very well be shifted near phases 6-8 which overall is unfavorable for Atlantic development. Thinking a below average season and a pretty good chance of a nice subtropical ridge over the C Atlantic to increase E US landfall potential with a generally weak +NAO to continue (0 to +1).


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Superstorm93
post Apr 21 2012, 04:13 PM
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This year should defintely be below the 1995-2011 average, but I still think we can squeeze out 12-13 storms if the Nino can hold off until late summer or so.


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Realism
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The Snowman
post Apr 21 2012, 06:39 PM
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QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Apr 21 2012, 04:13 PM) *
This year should defintely be below the 1995-2011 average, but I still think we can squeeze out 12-13 storms if the Nino can hold off until late summer or so.

I could see a mainly neutral ENSO season evolving with a hint of some Nino characteristics.

This post has been edited by The Snowman: Apr 21 2012, 06:41 PM


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My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 2.0" (Updated 11/21/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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beninbaltimore
post Apr 23 2012, 08:29 AM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Apr 21 2012, 03:33 PM) *
Downwelling Easterly QBO with ENSO near neutral to potentially weak El-Nino. MJO could very well be shifted near phases 6-8 which overall is unfavorable for Atlantic development. Thinking a below average season and a pretty good chance of a nice subtropical ridge over the C Atlantic to increase E US landfall potential with a generally weak +NAO to continue (0 to +1).


What forces drive an increased chance for a subtropical ridge over the C Atlantic?


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You can lead a horse to water but a pencil must be lead. - Stan Laurel
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DiehardFF
post Apr 24 2012, 03:59 PM
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No Irene repeat?



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snowrawrsnow
post Apr 24 2012, 05:33 PM
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QUOTE(DiehardFF @ Apr 24 2012, 04:59 PM) *
No Irene repeat?


You can't predict where storms would be. We could easily see an Irene repeat. We could see an even stronger storm. We could see no storms in hundreds of miles of the east coast.


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Snow____
post Apr 25 2012, 10:48 AM
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QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Apr 21 2012, 05:13 PM) *
This year should defintely be below the 1995-2011 average, but I still think we can squeeze out 12-13 storms if the Nino can hold off until late summer or so.

As of recent I take no long range forecast serious.


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weather-major94
post Apr 27 2012, 11:24 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Apr 21 2012, 07:16 AM) *
Lots of models on the FSU tropical page.
Link

A couple other FSU plots
Link
Link

And the must-have CIMSS.
Link

I have too many bookmarks laugh.gif



Much appreciated, good sir. i havent really heard much about season predictions, is this going to be an active year (im not big on long range forcasts, but they generally help set the mood, you know?)? new computers make things so hard! laugh.gif

This post has been edited by weather-major94: Apr 27 2012, 11:26 AM
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The Snowman
post Apr 28 2012, 07:47 PM
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QUOTE(weather-major94 @ Apr 27 2012, 11:24 AM) *
Much appreciated, good sir. i havent really heard much about season predictions, is this going to be an active year (im not big on long range forcasts, but they generally help set the mood, you know?)? new computers make things so hard! laugh.gif

Anytime. I am a quantity over quality person, so there are over 20 folders on my browser. Makes for a pretty fun hunt for any specific link laugh.gif
Speaking of a potentially active year, I found this off the IRI site

This post has been edited by The Snowman: Apr 28 2012, 07:49 PM
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--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 2.0" (Updated 11/21/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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grandpaboy
post May 8 2012, 11:10 AM
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Joe Bastardi ‏ @BigJoeBastardi
Note: weatherbell hurricane forecast has low ace, but high impact relative to ace as april gulf temps good signal for in close action


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--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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NYCSuburbs
post May 9 2012, 06:52 PM
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How I miss this time of the year... that time between the first modeled fantasy hurricane and the first actual hurricane that can take up to 1-2 months laugh.gif

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albanyweather
post May 9 2012, 09:35 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ May 9 2012, 07:52 PM) *
How I miss this time of the year... that time between the first modeled fantasy hurricane and the first actual hurricane that can take up to 1-2 months laugh.gif

yup, been watching the long range. 18z GFS has it too. Been seeing signs on the GFS for a few days now. Just have to wait and see if the GEM & Euro see it to. Its about time to for the tropics to get going wink.gif

Attached Image


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 1
Winter Watch: 0
Winter Warning:
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2014-2015: 1.2"
Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.1"
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The Snowman
post May 10 2012, 07:02 AM
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0z FIM Hour 336
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--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 2.0" (Updated 11/21/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
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