Apr 15-16 MidAtl/NE Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-7 Days Out Forecast] Options

[NYCSuburbs]

During this time frame, the sustained trough pattern since late March will briefly weaken with a warm surge expected, although given the trends with this new pattern, with yesterday's warm ECM runs such obvious exaggerations that I'm not even going to bother analyzing them, I'm not sure if it's worth starting a thread for a 1-2 day warm surge, if it even ends up anything more than the typical mild warmth surge in April of 70-75 degrees before temperatures possibly return closer to seasonable (not below average, but far from a warm pattern).

The best part about this time frame is that it holds the potential for some rain to falls, but it doesn't look like a very moist system, especially for the southern half of the region. At least from the latest models, there are modeled to be two rounds; one around the 15th with front end rains focusing on the Northeast, followed by a cold front on the 16th with rain and thunderstorms, focusing again in the Northeast. This shouldn't be any widespread 1 inch producer, but hopefully some decent rains finally fall out of it.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Apr 9 2012, 08:04 PM

[shane o mac]

How about the wind for this low when it reaches the maritimes NYC suburbs ?

[NYCSuburbs]

How about the wind for this low when it reaches the maritimes NYC suburbs ?

Too early to know specifics about the wind, as the location and intensity of the low pressure and cold front still have not been nailed down, but from what's modeled at this time, windy conditions could be possible for some areas.

[shane o mac]

Too early to know specifics about the wind, as the location and intensity of the low pressure and cold front still have not been nailed down, but from what's modeled at this time, windy conditions could be possible for some areas.

Thanks! will be looking into it in the next few days

[LUCC]

I'm really hoping we get this storm, doesn't look good for precip the next several weeks here in the MidAtl.

[NorEaster07]

Does anyone have a surface map from the GFS at hour 220 or so ; when it was showing a good amount of precip for this time period? I like to do a comparison how now its showing practically nothing over my area.

[NorEaster07]

So the GFS had in its long range around the 15th as some good rains for us.. Here I show the 12z from the 5th. Not all runs were as extreme with an inch or more but at least it had over half inch.

NOW... every run seems to continue to break it apart and have less and less.
Notice the Canadien High up there and SouthEast High.(bottom pic latest update)