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> Apr. 10-14 Southwest (So. Cal) Late Winter Storms, Downtown L.A. escapes Top ten driest water years. More rain Friday?
NorEaster07
post Apr 12 2012, 05:48 AM
Post #41




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QUOTE(Beck @ Apr 11 2012, 06:08 PM) *
Wow! blink.gif

Hey alxz310, could you do me a favor and save that animation loop and then post it for me (or send me the file)? I'm at work right now and can't save it, but I'd like to when I get home in a couple of hours.

No rain has fallen here since around noon, mostly cloudy skies and wind since then. Everything remains damp outside.



Here's yesterdays radar loop from 8pm Tuesday to 8pm Wednesday.



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 12 2012, 05:49 AM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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LALEO
post Apr 12 2012, 10:31 AM
Post #42




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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 12 2012, 02:48 AM) *
Here's yesterdays radar loop from 8pm Tuesday to 8pm Wednesday.



Hey Thanks for dropping in and doing that. wink.gif


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Season Totals.

Precipitation Total 5.94" - Last Updated March. 02, 2014

Last Accumulation/Event 3.88" - March. 02 , 2014
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FrostFuzz
post Apr 12 2012, 12:48 PM
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Had a surprise shower last night drop .07" to add to the previous .16". Pretty interested in this second system, 500mb temps drop to -30C, which might have meant some pretty good thunderstorms if the coldest air lined up with daytime heating. As it is looking for a fairly dynamic system with some nice rainfall amounts for this time of year.


--------------------
My Precip Total '13-'14: 4.10"


Last updated 4/3/14

http://www.youtube.com/user/frostfuzz
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ChrisL
post Apr 12 2012, 03:05 PM
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My rain gauge recorded 0.25" of rain from yesterdays system. It rained pretty good early morning
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LALEO
post Apr 12 2012, 04:13 PM
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Now they've updated a high probability of Severe Weather for my area with tomorrows storm...Still about a day away, but like I said, It was wayy too early to count this one out. This one looks to definitely be stronger than the first, Especially if the Severe outbreak comes to fruition.

EDIT- Totals have also been bumped up...Rainfall is now "up to" 1.5". Strongest storm of the season? Haha, Lmao! Although it would take those severe parameters for that...Still fun to wonder.

This post has been edited by LALEO: Apr 12 2012, 04:58 PM


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Season Totals.

Precipitation Total 5.94" - Last Updated March. 02, 2014

Last Accumulation/Event 3.88" - March. 02 , 2014
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LALEO
post Apr 12 2012, 05:10 PM
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Another update from Western Expert Ken Clark, and he's impressed with the Severe parameters.. My area being a very high risk zone for Severe Wx, This could definitely get interesting with very impressive rainfall totals.

Here's what he had to say on it.


"A unseasonably strong storm invades California Thursday night and Friday and brings wild weather with it. There are not many times in a year that one can say that severe weather is likely with a storm. This looks to be one of those few times. I am impressed".


However the wildest weather looks to be during Friday into Friday evening in central and southern California. The upper level trough moves south then east, becomes what we call negatively tilted, and moves inland during the day and evening hours. The negative tilt will produce good lift to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms as well as adding some twist to any thunderstorm that develops. It becomes very cold aloft making for strong lapse rates which means increased instability. All the ingredients will be in place for thunderstorms to potentially turn severe with any severe thunderstorm producing very heavy downpours, strong and gusty winds, large hail and even a waterspout or tornado. The greatest lift and threat for severe weather is aimed at about the southern 1/2 or so of the state. The upper level disturbance itself moves right over the Los Angeles Basin during the afternoon and early evening hours. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable because of the shower nature but probably average 1/2 to 1 inch but locally higher amounts possible. Rain could fall at fast enough rates below the heaviest showers and storms to produce flash flooding problems.

Music to my ears...


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Season Totals.

Precipitation Total 5.94" - Last Updated March. 02, 2014

Last Accumulation/Event 3.88" - March. 02 , 2014
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Artisane
post Apr 12 2012, 05:15 PM
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Accuweather just went crazy overboard for us tomorrow.

Attached Image



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LALEO
post Apr 12 2012, 05:27 PM
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Yea buddy, This ones going to be fun. To think some folks were dismissing this one. This one has potential to be the strongest of the year.


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Season Totals.

Precipitation Total 5.94" - Last Updated March. 02, 2014

Last Accumulation/Event 3.88" - March. 02 , 2014
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Severewx1
post Apr 12 2012, 05:53 PM
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QUOTE(Artisane @ Apr 12 2012, 05:15 PM) *
Accuweather just went crazy overboard for us tomorrow.

Attached Image


Things like this make you say hmmmmmmm...
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Severewx1
post Apr 12 2012, 06:03 PM
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QUOTE(LALEO @ Apr 12 2012, 05:27 PM) *
Yea buddy, This ones going to be fun. To think some folks were dismissing this one. This one has potential to be the strongest of the year.


The "other source" mentions nothing of severe storms tomorrow haha. That itself increases our chances for severe weather LOL laugh.gif. toooo funny.

This post has been edited by Severewx1: Apr 12 2012, 06:03 PM
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Artisane
post Apr 12 2012, 06:07 PM
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QUOTE(Severewx1 @ Apr 12 2012, 03:53 PM) *
Things like this make you say hmmmmmmm...

I will definately be paying attention. I highly doubt we'll have a tornado, but even a weak one can do severe damage. I've got the day off tomorrow, so I'll be able to keep tabs on things in the comfort of my home.

I'll be streaming my Starcraft 2 ladder practices tomorrow, but you can be sure I'll tab out frequently to check on things and contribute to these forums.
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Beck
post Apr 12 2012, 06:22 PM
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So it's clear that Mother Nature can't decide between Spring or Winter for Southern California this year. It keeps going between low pressure troughs & onshore flow or brief heat spells. Deja Vu...? This also happened in 2002. But the PDO is even colder now than it was back then.

Conditions in the Pacific continue to warm out of La Nina, but not necessarily into an El Nino right away. A plume of ENSO forecasts all suggest SSTs in the Pacific staying near neutral all the way through at least September. It is looking more likely that we'll have either an ENSO Neutral winter or a Weak El Nino for 2012-13. Neither of these can guarantee an above average water year.

ENSO Neutral winters almost always yield very below average water years, particularly when the PDO is in a cold phase, like it is right now and has been since 2007. Cold PDO's also tend to greatly supress the effects of El Nino on the Northern Hemisphere, which is why the 2009-10 El Nino was not particularly wet for Southern California. ENSO Neutral winters have only generated above average rainfall during years when the PDO was in a warm phase (think late 1970s/80s).

El Nino's have become very untrustworthy when relying on them for above average rainfall for Southern California in recent years. 2002-03 and 2009-10 were only slightly above average, and 2006-07 was extremely below average. 2004-05 was the "odd one out" in that it produced the second wettest water year in recorded history for all of Southern California, and that El Nino was the weakest of them all. But, the PDO was warm at that time. It was cold for the other El Nino's mentioned. If El Nino develops next winter (regardless of its strength) but the PDO stays cold, then above average precip is not likely for Southern California. The PDO would have to transition to a warmer phase over this summer to increase the odds. But whether that will happen or not is anyone's guess.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2013-2014: 6.10" (-6.65")
Normal to-date precipitation: 12.75"
Season began July 1st, 2013.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2013-2014: 7.10"

Temecula Weather Pages
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LALEO
post Apr 12 2012, 06:23 PM
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QUOTE(Severewx1 @ Apr 12 2012, 03:03 PM) *
The "other source" mentions nothing of severe storms tomorrow haha. That itself increases our chances for severe weather LOL laugh.gif. toooo funny.


Hahahaha, Good one! laugh.gif


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Season Totals.

Precipitation Total 5.94" - Last Updated March. 02, 2014

Last Accumulation/Event 3.88" - March. 02 , 2014
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Beck
post Apr 12 2012, 06:40 PM
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I never noticed this until now. NWS San Diego forecast discussion:

CODE
.HYDROLOGY...
  RAINFALL FORECAST AMOUNTS WITH THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY STORM...
  ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS......0.40 TO 0.80 INCHES
  SANTA ANA MTNS/FOOTHILLS.........0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES
  INLAND EMPIRE....................0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
  TEMECULA VALLEY..................0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES
  SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS....
             COASTAL SLOPES........1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
             DESERT FOOTHILL.......0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES
             DESERT AREAS..........0.25 OR LESS INCHES
  APPLE/LUCERNE VALLEYS............0.15 TO 0.33 INCHES
  RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
             WEST SLOPES...........0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES
             DESERT SLOPES.........0.33 TO 0.75 INCHES
  COACHELLA VALLEY.................0.05 TO 0.20 INCHES
  SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...0.40 TO 0.70 INCHES
  SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS..0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES
  SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
            COASTAL SLOPES.........1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES
            DESERT SLOPES..........0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES
  SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.........0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES
  
  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY STORM...
  3500 TO 4500 FEET....1 TO 4 INCHES
  4500 TO 6000 FEET....4 TO 8 INCHES
  6000 TO 7500 FEET....8 TO 12 INCHES
  7500 TO 9000 FEET....LOCALLY UP TO 18 INCHES


^ The Temecula Valley has it's own forecast area! biggrin.gif
Between half an inch and 3/4 of an inch sounds good to me.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2013-2014: 6.10" (-6.65")
Normal to-date precipitation: 12.75"
Season began July 1st, 2013.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2013-2014: 7.10"

Temecula Weather Pages
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LALEO
post Apr 12 2012, 06:53 PM
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Haha, ABC7 has a Tornado and rain for tomorrows forecast! I love it!


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Season Totals.

Precipitation Total 5.94" - Last Updated March. 02, 2014

Last Accumulation/Event 3.88" - March. 02 , 2014
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alxz310
post Apr 12 2012, 07:20 PM
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I'll be spending the afternoon and evening in Davis tomorrow - really hope I don't miss out on some t-storm action back here! Maybe there'll be something interesting up there, although the NWS discussion seems to mention the best thunderstorm potential staying in the southern half of the state tomorrow


--------------------
Davis, CA

Seasonal Rainfall: 0.00"

Average to Date (End Month): -.--"

Monthly Rainfall (September): 0.00"
Average: -.--"

Average Temps (September)

Average High: --F
Actual to Date: --F

Average Low: --F
Actual to Date: --F

Record High: ---F
Record Low: --F
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Beck
post Apr 12 2012, 07:23 PM
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"Wintry" Spring Storm Headed for the Southland

For once, a storm that occurs during one of my days off, so I actually get to enjoy it. Most of this winter, it only rained on my work days, which meant that I was cooped up inside and rarely got to actually see & experience the rain myself, which was extremely disappointing. I can't wait for this one.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2013-2014: 6.10" (-6.65")
Normal to-date precipitation: 12.75"
Season began July 1st, 2013.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2013-2014: 7.10"

Temecula Weather Pages
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Severewx1
post Apr 12 2012, 07:44 PM
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Interesting...Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued in the Central Valley!
Storms. There are some powerful thunderstorms in that region. One of the cells has a dBZ of 64 and 100% chance of severe hail (1.50")! Will the forecast be right about the severe storms forming in the southern California ? This is the question. I guess, we will find out tomorrow!

This post has been edited by Severewx1: Apr 12 2012, 07:48 PM
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alxz310
post Apr 12 2012, 09:04 PM
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This storm has A LOT of lightning associated with it - usually don't ever see something like this off the California coast!
http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer.html

Current weather in Merced: "Hvy Thunder, Mod Hail"

This post has been edited by alxz310: Apr 12 2012, 09:06 PM


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Davis, CA

Seasonal Rainfall: 0.00"

Average to Date (End Month): -.--"

Monthly Rainfall (September): 0.00"
Average: -.--"

Average Temps (September)

Average High: --F
Actual to Date: --F

Average Low: --F
Actual to Date: --F

Record High: ---F
Record Low: --F
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LALEO
post Apr 12 2012, 09:09 PM
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As much as I like very strong storms, The Super Cell on January 19th of 09, Had me extremely concerned while the winds were ripping shingles off my home and the rain was coming down in buckets. That tornadic Tstorm was borderline something I'd rather not see again.

With Long Beach being in a high risk zone for Severe and tornadic activity, This could get very interesting tomorrow. I just hope for the rains that come with Super Cells. wink.gif


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Season Totals.

Precipitation Total 5.94" - Last Updated March. 02, 2014

Last Accumulation/Event 3.88" - March. 02 , 2014
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