April 14-18 NE/Mid-Atl Warmup Options

[psu1313]

All of the models are showing a nice warm-up for the East in the coming days though that is in question the farther north you go. With the dry soil temps should come in a few degrees higher than modeled barring cloudcover south of the Mason-Dixon line. North of the Mason-Dixon, questions are abundant but I would say that it could hit 80 on Sunday in NYC. In DC, it's very possible that the temps make a run at 90 if conditions are as ideal as they look to be.

Here is the SREF temp model that goes out to Sunday, where a number of the models push the warmth all the way to Maine.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21T...3z/srefloop.htm




This post has been edited by psu1313: Apr 12 2012, 02:02 PM

[NorEaster07]

GFS has Monday as the warmest day.

Factor in a dry ground and 80s could be more widespread than shown here.

[NYCSuburbs]

With the models having significantly overestimated the intensity of the low near Newfoundland, the cold front will fail to move through quickly on Monday, and with an unseasonably warm air mass, this has the look of a classic spring significant warm spell. The CMC shows a weak back door cold front on Tuesday for New England and possibly NYC/parts of NJ, although going with the rest of the models, Monday looks to torch, with widespread 85 degree readings to locally upper 80s from DC-Boston. Hopefully there is actually a quick end to this warmth, because such a scenario would bring a better chance of more rain.

[WEATHERFAN100]

With the models having significantly overestimated the intensity of the low near Newfoundland, the cold front will fail to move through quickly on Monday, and with an unseasonably warm air mass, this has the look of a classic spring significant warm spell. The CMC shows a weak back door cold front on Tuesday for New England and possibly NYC/parts of NJ, although going with the rest of the models, Monday looks to torch, with widespread 85 degree readings to locally upper 80s from DC-Boston. Hopefully there is actually a quick end to this warmth, because such a scenario would bring a better chance of more rain.

We need the rain. Because if the above average heat comes around frequently with little or no rain, we will end up in a bad dry scenario later this summer. Already to dry outside.

[NYCSuburbs]

We need the rain. Because if the above average heat comes around frequently with little or no rain, we will end up in a bad dry scenario later this summer. Already to dry outside.

And the 18z GFS makes it even worse by also taking away both the mid and late week storms... the mid week cold front doesn't look too wet, and the Friday event may have been a bit exaggerated. At this time, the only decent rain event in the 7-day range outside of central/northern New England seems to be a moderate burst of rain (and thunderstorms perhaps?) on Saturday night for the northern Mid Atlantic and SNE, but it's still no heavy rain event.

[WEATHERFAN100]

Now it looks like Monday may be the *warmest* day of the period.

And the 18z GFS makes it even worse by also taking away both the mid and late week storms... the mid week cold front doesn't look too wet, and the Friday event may have been a bit exaggerated. At this time, the only decent rain event in the 7-day range outside of central/northern New England seems to be a moderate burst of rain (and thunderstorms perhaps?) on Saturday night for the northern Mid Atlantic and SNE, but it's still no heavy rain event.

Yup very concerning...hopefully some areas could pick up a moderate burst of beneficial rainfall at some point in this time period.

Wonder when the first severe weather day will occur across Mid-Atl/ NE.

[NorEaster07]

Some Daily Record Highs for April

Hartford, CT:
14th - 82
15th - 88
16th - 90
17th - 95

Worchester, MA:
14th - 75
15th -84
16th - 89
17th - 90

White Plains, NY:
14th - 78
15th - 83
16th - 88
17th - 92

Bridgeport, CT:
14th - 73 - 1949
15th - 81 - 1960
16th - 85 - 2002
17th - 89 - 2002

Central Park, NY:
14th - 85 - 1941
15th - 87 - 1941
16th - 92 - 2002
17th - 96 - 2002

Newark, NJ:
14th - 88 - 1941
15th - 88 - 1960
16th - 92 - 2002
17th - 97 - 2002

[yankees]

GFS has Monday as the warmest day.

Factor in a dry ground and 80s could be more widespread than shown here.

Upton has my town at exactly 80 degrees http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?s...23&map.y=99. That combined with sunshine and continued dry weather will make for a rough fire weather day.

[NYCSuburbs]

6z NAM now shows mid 80s on Monday... unlike the previous warm spell, this one is centered on the typical warm areas in the Mid Atlantic/SNE, not over northern New England. Warm 850mb temps + breezy SW winds + dry ground (as NorEaster07 mentioned) + model bias to underestimate warmth = areas of 90 degrees in DC-BOS corridor (or 89 degrees)...

[grandpaboy]

Its not that unusual to have hot weather in April(remember a couple of years ago, temps in the 90s), the magnification here is the persist dry weather and no real chance at rain in the next 5 days......

[psu1313]

6z NAM now shows mid 80s on Monday... unlike the previous warm spell, this one is centered on the typical warm areas in the Mid Atlantic/SNE, not over northern New England. Warm 850mb temps + breezy SW winds + dry ground (as NorEaster07 mentioned) + model bias to underestimate warmth = areas of 90 degrees in DC-BOS corridor (or 89 degrees)...

This. Also, Tuesday could be very warm as well but the models are hinting at more clouds with the front . I'm not sure what to go with for Tuesday just yet but i'd still expect above average temps even with the front coming closer.

[LUCC]

As I said in other threads, the models seem to underdo the warmth and overdo the cold and rain. It's going to be a rough month regarding moisture.

[WEATHERFAN100]

Nice mild day outside.

Current temp is 60 degrees...gentle breeze.

[natedizel]

I use to be able to enjoy the nice weather outside, but then I took and arrow to the knee.

[telejunkie]

Some Daily Record Highs for April

Central Park, NY:
17th - 96 - 2002

Newark, NJ:
17th - 97 - 2002

That's incredible! Need to check to see what the summer of '02 was like considering the parallels between this year so far.

[WEATHERFREAK]

This'll be brief as the following week should be quite cool!

This post has been edited by WEATHERFREAK: Apr 14 2012, 10:04 AM

[thedarkestclouds]

That's incredible! Need to check to see what the summer of '02 was like considering the parallels between this year so far.

Above to much above normal for most areas in the U.S. that've been in an endless blowtorch pattern, but the following winter featured almost non-stop below normal temperatures, especially in the northeast. The western half or so of the country baked that winter though.

[NorEaster07]

That's incredible! Need to check to see what the summer of '02 was like considering the parallels between this year so far.

Let me know what you find. Just a couple of quick looks,

Top Left: April 15 to 30, 2002 temps
Top Right: June to September 2002 Temps
Bottom Left: May to July 2002 temps (Cold Spring)
Bottom Right: June to September Precip

[psu1313]

This'll be brief as the following week should be quite cool!

I don't think anyone is thinking this is going to be a long lasting shot of warm temps BUT I don't see the cool temps either unless you mean being around normal. A lot of the models have backed off the large trough idea in the east and if it does come in then it looks to be progressive and should pull through in 2-3 days. Remember that for the most part, the models have been overdoing the cold/precip only to moderate the temperatures and lessen the precip as we get closer to the event.

On top of this there isn't a lot of cold air in the system at this point. If you want some other materials to look at I come with a link and a picture! First the link, predicted 500 mb heights from the ESRL. Nothing screams cold here... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/en...h_alltimes.html

....and predicted temps from the CPC.....

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[STEVE392]

is there any precip to be coming any time soon, and not just a brief shower but a soaking?