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> April 14-15 Southern/Eastern Ontario and Quebec, Possible Severe Weather
EOsnowmom
post Apr 13 2012, 07:47 AM
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SPC has southern Ontario included in their TSTM forecast for Saturday and a whole bunch of us in their %5 Probabilistic zone for Sunday.

Thoughts?




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elder05
post Apr 13 2012, 02:08 PM
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QUOTE(EOsnowmom @ Apr 13 2012, 08:47 AM) *
SPC has southern Ontario included in their TSTM forecast for Saturday and a whole bunch of us in their %5 Probabilistic zone for Sunday.

Thoughts?




a lot depends on the warm frontal boundary, and what it does. given the NAM outlook, there are 3 separate times to watch, i'll break it down.

Early sunday morning, warm front pushes through, some marginal instability (mostly elevated) but perhaps some thunder. Sunday afternoon, NAM brings in temps into the mid twenties for southern ontario. but that it all dependent upon the clearing that occurs, or doesn't occur after the warm fropa.

There will be a ton of moisture behind the warm fropa, so it's possible we are delayed in the clearing. might be left with low cloud, drizzle, etc...and much cooler temps. But if we can rid that moisture with some sun, temps, and dew points will be on the rise throughout sunday. Couple models hinting at marginally unstable conditions with decent helicity values and negative LI's. this would spell some big time storms sunday afternoon, but we are lacking a trigger. it's possible a shortwave from 700mb could be that trigger, but that;s yet to be seen.

Lastly, the cold frontal passage monday afternoon possibly. could be dealing with a squall line. wait and see.


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bigmt
post Apr 13 2012, 05:32 PM
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18z NAM simulated reflectivity @ hour 45:

Attached File  USA_REFC_clm_045.gif ( 33.7K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 69:

Attached File  USA_REFC_clm_069.gif ( 31.62K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hopefully something substantial happens because a dent needs to be made in the drought conditions for the area:

Attached File  ontdrought.jpg ( 185.58K ) Number of downloads: 4
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EOsnowmom
post Apr 13 2012, 07:27 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 13 2012, 06:32 PM) *
Hopefully something substantial happens because a dent needs to be made in the drought conditions for the area:

I hope we get some of that rain. I didn't realize how dry Southern Ontario was getting. Scary.
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ottawasnowstorm
post Apr 13 2012, 08:30 PM
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Southern ontario such as Windsor could definitely get in on some action. It would not surprise me if Ottawa does get in on something also as temperatures are going to spike into the 20's sunday and monday. But let me tell you this, whatever southern and eastern ontario get will be "nothing" compared to what some states are going to experience tomorrow. This will be something to watch. Very, very dangerous down there!
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bigmt
post Apr 14 2012, 06:24 AM
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Ugly situation for areas of the USA today and thunderstorms expected through tomorrow for Ontario.

08z HRRR composite reflectivity @ hour 11:

Attached File  cref_sfc_f11.png ( 100K ) Number of downloads: 2


SPC convective outlook:

Attached File  day1otlk_1200.gif ( 29.19K ) Number of downloads: 2


Tornado risk:

Attached File  day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif ( 28.4K ) Number of downloads: 1


06z NAM simulated radar @ hour 33:

Attached File  nam_namer_033_sim_radar.gif ( 38.23K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 54:

Attached File  nam_namer_054_sim_radar.gif ( 38.44K ) Number of downloads: 1
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EOsnowmom
post Apr 14 2012, 07:46 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 14 2012, 07:24 AM) *
Ugly situation for areas of the USA today and thunderstorms expected through tomorrow for Ontario.

Absolutely correct. We will experience NOTHING like what the plains are going to go through this weekend. Thanks and prayers to those out there for sure.

Looks like Eastern Ontario/Southern Quebec may have a wind event on Monday as a result of this system going through. SPC has us down in a 5% probabilistic zone.

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bigmt
post Apr 14 2012, 08:48 PM
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SPC storm reports so far:

Attached File  today.gif.png ( 17.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


An interesting piece of the puzzle which may have further ramifications down the road, from Jeff Masters' blog.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMaste...l?entrynum=2071

QUOTE
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico to climb to 1.4C (2.5F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record.

All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.


A possible ingredient for more severe weather and fuel for tropical systems through the summer? El Nino conditions generally reduce Atlantic hurricane activity so it will be interesting to see what occurs.
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Cre47
post Apr 14 2012, 10:47 PM
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Right now, we have a tornado that is taking a similar track to a famous tornado back on April 26, 1991 right now in Kansas.

Apparently another tornado narrowly missed Greensburg during the evening too.

This post has been edited by Cre47: Apr 14 2012, 11:49 PM
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an uncanny otter
post Apr 14 2012, 11:00 PM
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97 tornado reports so far today. Once morning comes we'll be able to see what kind of damage occurred in Wichita. I'm hearing conflicting information from "catastrophic damage" to "storms gusted out and weren't that bad."
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Cre47
post Apr 14 2012, 11:28 PM
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At least one building was destroyed/collapsed at the same air force base (McConnell) that got hit back in 1991.

Could be extensive, there was a debris ball signature with the storm

This post has been edited by Cre47: Apr 14 2012, 11:53 PM
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bigmt
post Apr 15 2012, 09:16 AM
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QUOTE(Cre47 @ Apr 14 2012, 11:47 PM) *
Right now, we have a tornado that is taking a similar track to a famous tornado back on April 26, 1991 right now in Kansas.


Here's a well-known but still incredible video of that tornado from '91.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkxRaX62Hkk

Yesterday's unfiltered storm reports:

Attached File  yesterday.gif.png ( 16.83K ) Number of downloads: 0


Today's convective outlook:

Attached File  day1otlk_1300.gif ( 29.22K ) Number of downloads: 0
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an uncanny otter
post Apr 15 2012, 12:22 PM
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Picked up 25 mm from rain this morning. We really needed it. Everything is incredibly lush and green, especially with the warmth.
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an uncanny otter
post Apr 15 2012, 10:19 PM
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Parts of southern Ontario have been put under a Slight Risk for 15% probs of severe storms tomorrow. Seems like they'll be mostly run-of-the-mill heavy downpour type storms.

Attached File  spc.gif ( 27.94K ) Number of downloads: 0

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HoBOonFiRE
post Apr 16 2012, 01:28 PM
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Wind warnings up throughout most of southern and south central Ontario.

Wind Warning

Issued at 2:10 PM EDT Monday 16 April 2012

Gusts to 95 km/h early this afternoon along a cold front.

Details

Warm gusty winds along a cold front will cross the regions early this afternoon with peak wind gusts 90 to 100 km/h likley. Wind gusts of 96 km/h have been recorded at London airport. The strong winds are expected to cross the Toronto to Barrie corridor between 2 and 4 PM EDT.
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JJ Snowlover
post Apr 16 2012, 02:39 PM
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Crazy temperature difference across Ontario currently. In Ottawa, it 29c, 32c with the humidex, in Thunder Bay, it's -5c with 5 - 10 cms of snow... ohmy.gif
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TriC
post Apr 16 2012, 02:59 PM
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ya very windy here in London lots of little tree lims down been windy here all day. but its a nice warm wind.


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travis3000
post Apr 16 2012, 06:06 PM
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It hit 26C today in Alliston. Had a few cloudy periods, but overall the sun was out and it was very windy.


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travis3000
post Apr 16 2012, 06:07 PM
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double post*

This post has been edited by travis3000: Apr 16 2012, 06:07 PM


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stormchaser22
post Apr 16 2012, 07:03 PM
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Really windy and warm here today. Lost a few old trees on my street and the power flickered enough to make me have to reset all the clocks in the house. Beautiful warmth and sun though.
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